The template is finally being shaken up, with Michail Antonio (£7.9m) and Bruno Fernandes (£12.0m) having been shipped by nearly a million managers this week.
With that in mind, I thought it would be a good time to use the tools and data in the Fantasy Football Scout Premium Members Area to help answer some questions from the FPL community.
Q: Who is the best Everton midfield option? (@smallccapitalt)
A. Everton have a bunch of good midfield options – Demarai Gray (£5.7m), Andros Townsend (£5.4m) and even Abdoulaye Doucoure (£5.5m) have already notched multiple attacking returns. Out of the three, I think Gray is the standout. As the below table from the last three Gameweeks shows, despite scoring three goals from as many shots on target, he is top amongst their midfielders for expected goals (xG, 0.78) and third for chances created (three). With Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£8.2m) injured, Benitez is likely going to look from goals from his midfielders and I think Gray offers great value at just £5.7m.
Q: Who is the best forward under £6.5m to replace Ivan Toney? (@anathelana)
A: There’s very limited choice in the £6.5-and-below striker price bracket. Allan Saint-Maximin (£6.5m), Adam Armstrong (£6.0m) and Emmanuel Dennis (£5.2m) are some of the candidates but the standout in my opinion by some distance is Teemu Pukki (£5.9m). Norwich have failed to impress so far but it is worth mentioning that the Canaries were bottom of the Season Ticker for Gameweek 1-4. However, as the below image shows, they are top of the same ticker for Gameweeks 5-8. Norwich’s season starts now and Pukki is clearly their talisman. At just £5.9m and with very low ownership, he’s a great pick for the next four weeks.
Q: Who would you pick between Patrick Bamford or Raphinha as a Leeds asset for the next three fixtures if you’re only going with one? (@FPLPHD)
A: Without going into the value/price argument, first let’s compare their numbers using the Comparison Tool in the Premium Members Area, starting off with assist potential. As the below image shows, it’s no shock that Raphinha (£6.5m) leads the way for chances created (seven to two) but the Brazilian’s numbers are not that great in isolation. Seven chances created over four matches is less than two a game and only one of those was deemed to be a ‘big chance’.
In terms of goal threat, Patrick Bamford’s (£7.9m) numbers are impressive. He has been afforded nearly double (23 to 12) the penalty area touches compared to Raphinha and has taken 10 shots in the box to the Brazilian’s three, more than triple. The fact that Raphinha averages less than one shot in the box is not great.
When you add penalty-taking duties to Bamford’s repertoire, I think it’s pretty clear that despite the difference in price, the forward is the superior Leeds’ attacking asset. Raphinha’s numbers are likely to improve with the easier run of fixtures, of course, and he’s also a good asset in isolation.
Q: Differential punts for Wildcarders in each position? (@FPLJames23)
A: I’ll skip the goalkeepers and start in defence. I think Nelson Semedo (£4.9m) is a great pick, his numbers versus Marcal (£4.6m) have been covered in detail in this piece by Neale. The fact that the Brazilian outscored him significantly last week means that the Portuguese will continue to go under the radar. If Semedo is too mainstream for you, then I would suggest Kieran Tierney (£4.9m). Arsenal switch to a back three in possession with the right-back tucking in to help the defence, so Tierney plays pretty much as a left-winger.
In midfield, my pick would be Ismaila Sarr (£6.0m). Watford could not have asked for better opponents in the next three matches: Norwich, Newcastle and Leeds. As the below image shows, they are three of the five worst sides for open play goal attempts conceded over the first four matches:
Up top, Pukki is a great differential for the reasons mentioned earlier in the piece. Raul Jimenez (£7.4m) is also one to consider: he’s yet to find the back of the net this season but is posting good underlying numbers, indicating that a haul is just around the corner.
Q: Is Conor Gallagher a must-have? (@KaartikKrishFPL)
That’s it from me for now, hope you found the Q&A useful. We discussed a lot of the topics above and more on this week’s episode of The FPL Wire, so check it out below:
2 years, 7 months agoPick one:
A) Marçal + White + Duffy
B) Tierney + Duffy + Livramento
Cheers!