Spot the Differential

Fit-again Watkins can return to top FPL form in Villa’s new-look 3-5-2 formation

Gameweek 7 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is almost upon us, which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Aston Villa, Arsenal and Chelsea who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

OLLIE WATKINS

  • FPL ownership: 1.5%
  • Price: £7.3m
  • GW7-11 fixtures: tot | WOL | ars | WHU | sou

Ollie Watkins (£7.3m) was a key reason behind Aston Villa’s successful 2020/21 season, as he netted 16 goals and provided five assists in all competitions.

Ahead of the current campaign, he enjoyed a productive pre-season, but then suffered an injury which kept him out of the opening two Gameweeks. However, after a brief cameo against former club Brentford in Gameweek 3, he has now started and completed 90 minutes in every match since, and despite not scoring, has impressed.

Key to Watkins’ appeal has been a recent change of formation at Villa, which has seen Dean Smith’s troops line-up in a 3-5-2 shape. The new system enables Watkins and Danny Ings (£7.9m) to play in their favoured central roles, while also adding more stability at the back. 

At Old Trafford last weekend, Watkins forced David de Gea (£5.0m) into a couple of smart stops, with his six shots at Chelsea in Gameweek 4 highlighting his ability to trouble even the division’s best defences. A total of 10 goal attempts – including two big chances – in 281 minutes this season is encouraging, too, given the opposition.

Up next for Villa is a trip to Tottenham Hotspur, who rank 16th for xGC and 18th for shots in the box conceded since Nuno Espirito Santo took charge. To follow the fixtures detailed above, it’s also worth noting that they take on Brighton and Hove Albion (h) and Crystal Palace (a) before the end of November, so longer-term, the prospects look good.

Villa’s recent performances suggest that they are building some momentum, and as Watkins improves his match sharpness, could become a smart forward differential for our FPL squads.

EMILE SMITH ROWE

  • FPL ownership: 4.2%
  • Price: £5.3m
  • GW7-11 fixtures: bha | CRY | AVL | lei | WAT

After a challenging start to the season, Arsenal have now taken nine points from their last three games against Norwich City, Burnley and north London rivals Tottenham Hotspur, with the latter performance particularly impressive.

During the match, Emile Smith Rowe (£5.3m) provided a season-high haul of 12 points – via a goal, assist and two bonus – which coincided with him playing in arguably his best position.

With Martin Ødegaard (£5.5m) installed as a no. 10 in Mikel Arteta’s 4-2-3-1 formation, Smith Rowe featured off the left, but would often drift infield into more central areas where he could affect the game, with Kieran Tierney (£4.9m) supplying the width down that side. The duo combined excellently with Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£9.9m) throughout, with Smith Rowe offering balance to the attack by making runs in behind, but also coming shorter to link-play.

The big question for Arsenal is: can they keep it going? Lateriser and three Gunners’ fans had a go at answering that in his recent column, which is well worth a read, and the general consensus seems to be that they can. Key to that confidence is their forthcoming schedule, which includes a run of back-to-back home matches against Crystal Palace, Aston Villa, Watford, Newcastle United and Southampton before Christmas.

Buying a cheap Arsenal option makes a lot of sense right now, and with fixtures easing, Smith Rowe could be an effective midfield enabler.

CESAR AZPILICUETA

  • FPL ownership: 4.1%
  • Price: £6.0m
  • GW7-11 fixtures: SOU | bre | NOR | new | BUR

With uncertainty around Marcos Alonso’s (£5.9m) minutes, investing in one of Chelsea’s more secure backline options may be the sensible move for FPL managers.

Since Thomas Tuchel’s appointment back in January, Cesar Azpilicueta (£6.0m) has started 22 of the Blues’ 25 Premier League matches – more than any other defender – and having played for just over an hour against Juventus on Wednesday night, should feature again in Gameweek 7. His ability to play as both a right-sided centre-half and wing-back is another appealing factor, too.

Across Chelsea’s opening six matches, they have conceded just two goals – a Mohamed Salah (£12.6m) penalty and a deflected Gabriel Jesus (£8.6m) shot – with clean sheets produced against Tottenham Hotspur, Aston Villa, Arsenal and Crystal Palace.

Azpilicueta’s defensive numbers are solid during that run, as he leads the way amongst team-mates for tackles won and clearances, and while you aren’t buying him for his attacking threat, he could chip in with the odd assist, especially if handed a wing-back role.

With Chelsea sitting top of our Season Ticker for ease of fixture between Gameweeks 7 and 14, there is real potential for multiple clean sheets, and as one of the most nailed-on options in the Blues’ backline, Azpilicueta could thrive as a defensive differential.

584 Comments Post a Comment
  1. DBW - Slug's Mortgage …
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    Lukaku is flopping this GW. But I’m still getting him

    1. Dynamic Duos
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      I'm still (c) him

    2. Salahlulijah
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Cheers mystic Meg

  2. Dynamic Duos
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    Aston Villa 2 up top , will be looking at one as my Jimenez replacement in the near future

    1. Ask Yourself
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Watkins looks cool

  3. Alisson WondHaaland
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    Who do you think the best medium - long term (10+GWs) mid below 6m is?

    I was initially thinking Gallagher but Milivojevic taking set pieces off him is a bit of a bummer. Atm Im thinking Mbeumo, beautiful fixtures and playing striker in a side growing in confidence.

    Thoughts?

    1. bitm2007
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      I'm on Mbeumo as well

    2. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Doucoure I think will tick along nicely.

      Mbuemo also a good shout.

      Or could go with Odegaard or ESR at Arsenal

  4. Merlinsnose
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    Some advise please on my wildcard.

    Would you bring in Sarr, given he is nailed for 90 minutes, or Raphina who is a doubt next week and may come off early this game week?

    Much obliged.

    1. Alisson WondHaaland
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Raph, not even close imo

    2. Dynamic Duos
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Raph

    3. bitm2007
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Raph but make sure you have a decent 1st sub for GW8.

    4. F4L
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Raph

    5. Salahlulijah
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Neither. Sarr only good for 1 more week, Raph likely won’t play gwk 8

  5. Joey Tribbiani
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    Antonio starts tonight 😮

    1. F4L
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Benrahma starting with Fornals and Bowen being given rests.

  6. gomez123
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    How did i get here??... Traore to start this gw?? Y/N

  7. BooYaKasha
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    Who to drop for Raphinha?

    a. Greenwood
    b. Jota

    Tnx

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      B

    2. F4L
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Jota

    3. European Bob
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Jota

  8. Tonyawesome69
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    Best defender for this GW only

    1. OLEgend
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Azpi

    2. F4L
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Firpo/Semedo 😛

      Probably one of the Chelsea boys

    3. fricky_
      • 2 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      I'm honestly liking Semedo vs Newcastle a lot

    4. Salahlulijah
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      A starting Chelsea fullback

  9. Steve The Spud
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    Imagine an Antonio hammy tonight

    Talk about a cat amongst the pigeons

    1. Dynamic Duos
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      We spoke about this earlier, stop lol

    2. Scots Gooner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Why would you even say such a thing?

    3. WVA
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      He will score in stoppage time and get 3 BAPS in every game now I've sold him so don't worry

      1. FOO FIGHTER
        • 4 Years
        2 years, 6 months ago

        Why did you sell Antonio???

        1. WVA
          • 7 Years
          2 years, 6 months ago

          Had enough ITB for Lukaku when he got his RC, of course he has blanked in every game since I brought him in

    4. Ógie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Antonio and Benramha high speed collision would be chaos.

    5. Crunchie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      WC lol

    6. Pep bites Kun
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      That would be a wc button press for me - Teetering on a cliff, with one hand on a loose rock and the other hand, hovering over what you know, is a loose thistle .. just wondering, is it worth it? .. 🙂

  10. Kay317
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    Get Sarr for one week on wild card then switch to Saka week after...or just go straight for Saka?
    Saka defo has the tougher fixture this week so tempted to go for sarr then switch after.

    1. Dynamic Duos
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Saka

    2. mojoindojo
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Saka

    3. Salahlulijah
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Saka

  11. NotsoSpursy
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    Would you keep TAA on a WC?

    1. Dynamic Duos
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Yes

    2. OverTinker
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      I am not keeping but could bring him in next GW

    3. Maeki2
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      No would wait untill gw 12

  12. Ronnies
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    Ditch which 1 for Raphinha ?

    A) Jota
    B) Greenwood

    Cheers.

    1. OLEgend
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Both will be benched is what I am guessing.. Jota maybe as they are facing City

    2. AC/DC AFC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      A

  13. FPLtfs
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    Sanchez
    TAA*, Rudiger, Semedo, Williams
    Salah, Greenwood, Sarr
    Lukaku (c), Antonio, Jimenez
    Steer, Jota, Allan, Livramento

    Already did Shaw -> Rudiger. Anything worth a hit? Bench good enough and in right order? Thanks

  14. bradplum
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    Hi can I have some help filling in the blanks?

    Ramsdale foster

    Duffy Livra XX XX XX
    Salah Benny Rafa Saka Douglas
    Lukaku Ronny Antonio

    £15.4m for 3 defenders. Ideally want one Chelsea (Christiansen?)

    interested in cash and white also

    Any suggestions welcome!

    1. FPLtfs
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Williams, Rudiger, White

    2. Crunchie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Rudiger Cash White

    3. Maeki2
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      cancelo, rudi, christiansen/tomiyasu

  15. pingissimus
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    Brazil fixtures may be relevant for any bringing in Raph

    8th Oct
    10th Oct
    15th Oct

    GW 8 Leeds play on 16th Oct

    1. FOO FIGHTER
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Plus he is not fully fit.

      1. pingissimus
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 6 months ago

        That could be a blessing if he comes off early again against Watford. Perhaps his best chance of playing GW8

    2. F4L
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      just got to hope they are allowed to leave after the second match + they're double jabbed.

      1. pingissimus
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 6 months ago

        Not sure they're going to release both Ederson and Alisson

        1. F4L
          • 9 Years
          2 years, 6 months ago

          good point. Just a messy situation.

          1. pingissimus
            • 5 Years
            2 years, 6 months ago

            The fixture on the 15th is against Uruguay so arguably even if Raph is still fit before that match we can presumably rule him for injury to his knee until approx GW15 after it 🙂

        2. FOO FIGHTER
          • 4 Years
          2 years, 6 months ago

          Hhhmm, I was going to get in Alisson for GW8. Will judst hold on to Mendy and then do the move for GW9.

    3. Amartey Partey
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      A miracle if Raphinha doesn't aggravate his injury further after those 3 games!

    4. Steve The Spud
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      They should use his hip as an excuse or stay at home and get better I think 🙂

      1. Maeki2
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        2 years, 6 months ago

        you could not notice much of his "hip injury" last game. Maybe they thought of that

  16. tinear
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    Foster
    Tierney Cancelo Semedo
    Salah Jota Benrahma Sarr
    R7 Antonio Toney

    Sanchez Brownhill Veltman TAA

    1ft 0.1itb

    1. Jota to Raph, keep TAA
    2. TAA to Rudiger/Alonso, bench Semedo

    1. FPLtfs
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Easy save

    2. Cheeky Onion
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      I'd do Jota > Saka this week, Semedo > Rudiger/Alonso next week. Raph a great pick but unlikely to play GW8. Can get him in for Benny or Sarr later

  17. fricky_
    • 2 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    GTG?
    Sanchez
    Rudiger - Semedo - Duffy - Azpi/Alonso/Christensen
    Salah - Benrahma - Sarr - Raphinha
    Antonio - Lukaku
    Steele - Allan - Williams - Bamford
    which one of the Chelsea def would you get here?

    1. fricky_
      • 2 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      my bad, TAA on the bench, not Williams

  18. WVA
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    Had an absolutely appalling start to the season but I'm pretty happy with my team now (another shocking week incoming). 0.3 ITB for Benny to Raph eventually.

    Sanchez
    TAA* Cancelo Shaw* Rudiger
    Salah Benrahma Gallagher ESR
    Ronaldo Lukaku(C)
    Steele White Sissoko Scarlett

    1. Big boy Bowen
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Let’s see what absolute mindf***ery gets sent our way this weekend lol

      1. WVA
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 6 months ago

        I dread every game week now. One thing I do think will happen is a Lukaku goal but it will be a game week too late for me as all my rivals will bring him in.

        1. Big boy Bowen
          • 7 Years
          2 years, 6 months ago

          That’s why I’m keeping Kane and getting Son!

          1. Big boy Bowen
            • 7 Years
            2 years, 6 months ago

            Knees made out of steel mine are

        2. Steve The Spud
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          2 years, 6 months ago

          Why are you still playing if your dread every week ffs

          1. WVA
            • 7 Years
            2 years, 6 months ago

            Probably addicted

  19. Camzy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    Can you have a worst defense than mine going into this week...

    TAA, Shaw, Coufal, Ayling, Livra.

    Disastrous. And my one fit defender is playing against Chelsea.

    1. WVA
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Very unlucky, surprised I don't have more of them. We've all got to hold our hands up with Shaw, he has been an awful pick!

    2. Eleven Hag
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      TAA James Rudiger Duffy Livra here

    3. Eleven Hag
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Coufal injured too?

    4. Ógie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Looks like a good excuse to use the wildcard if you still have it?

    5. STONEROSES
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      I’ve got TAA Shaw ayling and Tsimikas plus Ben white.
      I refuse to take a hit, one week before WC on a def. so hoping Shaw or Tsimikas can get minutes alongside White and will take out Ayling.

      What’s your plans?

    6. Free Hat
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Only people with tsimikas instead of your livra...
      But yeah, unlucky defence this gw

    7. Crunchie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Do you not think then a WC this week may be beneficial Camzy?

      I am seriously thinking about it, as I have a good idea who to bring in (Raphinha aside)

      There is obviously injury risks but so will the next IB anyway?

  20. Big boy Bowen
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    Return of the Kane tonight lads

    1. Steve The Spud
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Benched

  21. RAFA THE GAFFA
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    Ayling >> Alonso or Rudiger? 2FTs and 1.4m to play with.

    Sanchez
    TAA*. Shaw*. White
    Salah. Jota. Raph. Sarr
    Ronaldo. Antonio. ASM
    (Foster, Gilmour, Ayling*, Livramento)

    1. Crunchie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Have you played your WC Rafa?

      1. RAFA THE GAFFA
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 6 months ago

        I haven’t. Is it that bad like? Haha

    2. TKC07
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Rudi

      1. RAFA THE GAFFA
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 6 months ago

        Cheers

  22. Steve The Spud
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    Dane scarlet starts

    Could put pressure on kane for the weekend if he shows desire to run about a bit

    1. Big boy Bowen
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Damn, was hoping to see Kane bang some in! Needs goals for his confidence I think

  23. mojoindojo
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    Keep TAA or get Rudiger for free?

    Sa
    TAA Alonso White
    Jota Grealish Saka Raphinha
    Antonio Lukaku Ronaldo

    4.0 Semedo Livra Bissouma
    0 itb

    1. Maeki2
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Taa will drop. I say play Rudi. Trent can get back after gw 12

  24. RAFA THE GAFFA
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    This is a very amateurish question but I also forget. Is Ayling and TAA both price locked now or can they drop?

    1. Lionac
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Can and will drop

    2. Salahlulijah
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Yes

  25. FFSbet.com
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    TAA + Shaw + Bamford > Rudiger + Cancelo + Toney (-8) ?

    Money ITB to get TAA back

    1. TKC07
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      No

  26. OverTinker
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    This is my WC Team

    Ramsdale (Foster)
    White / Cancelo / Alonso / Rudiger ( Livra)
    Salah /Raph /Sarr (Biss.- Brownhill)
    Lukaku / Ronaldo / Antonio

    May do Alonso to James and Sarr to Saka

    Your advice needed plz.

    1. Lionac
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Maybe Alonso to Cristensen to upgrade mid. Biss to ERS

      1. OverTinker
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 6 months ago

        want chelsea attacking mid or otherwise I would go with wolves defender.

        1. OverTinker
          • 5 Years
          2 years, 6 months ago

          sorry chelsea attacking defender not mid

  27. Oliver Tockman
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    A) Vardy, Mbeumo, Douglas Luiz
    B) Jimenez, Zaha, Mbeumo

    Cheers

  28. FOO FIGHTER
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    Team News

    WEST HAM
    Areola, Johnson, Dawson, Diop, Cresswell, Noble, Rice, Benrahma, Yarmolenko, Antonio, Vlasic.

    Subs: Fabianski, Randolph, Zouma, Lanzini, Fornals, Bowen, Masuaku, Soucek, Coufal, Kral, Alese, Baptiste.

    TOTTENHAM
    Gollini, Doherty, Rodon, Romero, Reguilon, Alli, Skipp, Winks, Lo Celso, Scarlett, Gil.

    Subs: Austin, Hojbjerg, Sanchez, Son, Kane, Emerson, Dier, Tanganga, Moura, Ndombele, White, Omole.

  29. ratski
    • 13 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    Could I have some wildcard advice pls...
    Sanchez , foster
    Rudiger, marcal, white, cancelo, Livra
    Gallagher, Salah, raph, doucoure, brownhill
    ROM, Ron, ant

    Only 0.2m left. Is it worth downgrading marcal to upgrade someone like Gallagher to saka?

    1. Maeki2
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      I would rather have benrahma than gallagher if money lets you

  30. TKC07
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 6 months ago

    I think this could be one of those weeks where doing no transfers might boost your rank.
    Most of the comments here are about taking one or more hits..

    1. TheTinman
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 6 months ago

      Hope so coz my team is absolute dogshite