Spot the Differential

Fit-again Watkins can return to top FPL form in Villa’s new-look 3-5-2 formation

Gameweek 7 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is almost upon us, which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Aston Villa, Arsenal and Chelsea who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

OLLIE WATKINS

  • FPL ownership: 1.5%
  • Price: £7.3m
  • GW7-11 fixtures: tot | WOL | ars | WHU | sou

Ollie Watkins (£7.3m) was a key reason behind Aston Villa’s successful 2020/21 season, as he netted 16 goals and provided five assists in all competitions.

Ahead of the current campaign, he enjoyed a productive pre-season, but then suffered an injury which kept him out of the opening two Gameweeks. However, after a brief cameo against former club Brentford in Gameweek 3, he has now started and completed 90 minutes in every match since, and despite not scoring, has impressed.

Key to Watkins’ appeal has been a recent change of formation at Villa, which has seen Dean Smith’s troops line-up in a 3-5-2 shape. The new system enables Watkins and Danny Ings (£7.9m) to play in their favoured central roles, while also adding more stability at the back. 

At Old Trafford last weekend, Watkins forced David de Gea (£5.0m) into a couple of smart stops, with his six shots at Chelsea in Gameweek 4 highlighting his ability to trouble even the division’s best defences. A total of 10 goal attempts – including two big chances – in 281 minutes this season is encouraging, too, given the opposition.

Up next for Villa is a trip to Tottenham Hotspur, who rank 16th for xGC and 18th for shots in the box conceded since Nuno Espirito Santo took charge. To follow the fixtures detailed above, it’s also worth noting that they take on Brighton and Hove Albion (h) and Crystal Palace (a) before the end of November, so longer-term, the prospects look good.

Villa’s recent performances suggest that they are building some momentum, and as Watkins improves his match sharpness, could become a smart forward differential for our FPL squads.

EMILE SMITH ROWE

  • FPL ownership: 4.2%
  • Price: £5.3m
  • GW7-11 fixtures: bha | CRY | AVL | lei | WAT

After a challenging start to the season, Arsenal have now taken nine points from their last three games against Norwich City, Burnley and north London rivals Tottenham Hotspur, with the latter performance particularly impressive.

During the match, Emile Smith Rowe (£5.3m) provided a season-high haul of 12 points – via a goal, assist and two bonus – which coincided with him playing in arguably his best position.

With Martin Ødegaard (£5.5m) installed as a no. 10 in Mikel Arteta’s 4-2-3-1 formation, Smith Rowe featured off the left, but would often drift infield into more central areas where he could affect the game, with Kieran Tierney (£4.9m) supplying the width down that side. The duo combined excellently with Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£9.9m) throughout, with Smith Rowe offering balance to the attack by making runs in behind, but also coming shorter to link-play.

The big question for Arsenal is: can they keep it going? Lateriser and three Gunners’ fans had a go at answering that in his recent column, which is well worth a read, and the general consensus seems to be that they can. Key to that confidence is their forthcoming schedule, which includes a run of back-to-back home matches against Crystal Palace, Aston Villa, Watford, Newcastle United and Southampton before Christmas.

Buying a cheap Arsenal option makes a lot of sense right now, and with fixtures easing, Smith Rowe could be an effective midfield enabler.

CESAR AZPILICUETA

  • FPL ownership: 4.1%
  • Price: £6.0m
  • GW7-11 fixtures: SOU | bre | NOR | new | BUR

With uncertainty around Marcos Alonso’s (£5.9m) minutes, investing in one of Chelsea’s more secure backline options may be the sensible move for FPL managers.

Since Thomas Tuchel’s appointment back in January, Cesar Azpilicueta (£6.0m) has started 22 of the Blues’ 25 Premier League matches – more than any other defender – and having played for just over an hour against Juventus on Wednesday night, should feature again in Gameweek 7. His ability to play as both a right-sided centre-half and wing-back is another appealing factor, too.

Across Chelsea’s opening six matches, they have conceded just two goals – a Mohamed Salah (£12.6m) penalty and a deflected Gabriel Jesus (£8.6m) shot – with clean sheets produced against Tottenham Hotspur, Aston Villa, Arsenal and Crystal Palace.

Azpilicueta’s defensive numbers are solid during that run, as he leads the way amongst team-mates for tackles won and clearances, and while you aren’t buying him for his attacking threat, he could chip in with the odd assist, especially if handed a wing-back role.

With Chelsea sitting top of our Season Ticker for ease of fixture between Gameweeks 7 and 14, there is real potential for multiple clean sheets, and as one of the most nailed-on options in the Blues’ backline, Azpilicueta could thrive as a defensive differential.

584 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Devos
    • 2 Years
    2 years, 5 months ago

    Pick a captain:

    a) Benrahma (BRE)
    b) Fernandes (EVE)
    c) Sarr (lee)
    d) Jiménez (NEW)
    e) Lukaku (SOU)

    1. Boly Would
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      E

    2. acidicleo
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      E

  2. martyhan
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 5 months ago

    Have 2 ft and still have WC. Hate using a WC when I've 2 fts. Would you try to get through this week with the team below or just wildcard.

    Sanchez steele
    Taa ayling shaw livramento, coady
    Salah, sarr, Bruno, gray, brownhill
    Ronaldo Antonio, scarlett

    Was hoping to wildcard next week.

    1. Crunchie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Shaw and TAA to two Chelsea certainties this weekend then WC, if it was me

      1. martyhan
        • 11 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        Thanks. I think I'll go with that to be honest.

    2. Boly Would
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Use 2FT's for sure

    3. _figu
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Sell Bruno Ayling Scarlett for Lukaku White D.Luiz?

    4. JariL
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      TAA & Ayling to double Chelsea defense for free and then you can decide if you want to WC during the international break?

      1. martyhan
        • 11 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        Thanks, yeah someone above said the same. I'll do that I think. Cheers

    5. ManofKent
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      If you're planning on wildcarding next week I'd just use both FTs on your defence this week

  3. AC/DC AFC
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 5 months ago

    Vardy or Lukaku?

    1. Crunchie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Lukaku

  4. AC/DC AFC
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 5 months ago

    Smith Rowe or Gallagher?

    Cheers

    1. Cheeky Onion
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      ESR

    2. acidicleo
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Gallagher more nailed..

    3. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      I think it's about even honestly.

      Gallagher nailed but Milivojevic being back means he's not on set pieces any more which is annoying. ESR is a rotation risk/reduced minutes at best. Can't see him playing 90 very often.

  5. jackruet
    • 2 Years
    2 years, 5 months ago

    soyuncu is worse than mustafi

  6. _figu
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 5 months ago

    Jota to Raphinha (-4)?

    Might not start and want Raphinha long term. Allows me to get Cancelo next GW

    1. jackruet
      • 2 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Same here. But raphinha might miss gw8 and jota might even start, who knows

      1. _figu
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        Yeah guess I'll keep. Could score from bench vs City. Hoping he starts vs Watford

  7. JariL
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 5 months ago

    When will we find out whether Raphinha misses GW8 due to international games?

    1. Ruth_NZ
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Probably not till GW8. 😆

      1. JariL
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        Would you bring him in this week or too risky considering the IB?

        1. Ruth_NZ
          • 9 Years
          2 years, 5 months ago

          Not. Even if the quarantine thing is sorted, Brazil have an evening game on the 14th and Leeds play at 15:00 on the 16th. Raphinha is maybe important enough to Leeds that he'll play anyway but I wouldn't want to risk it myself.

          1. JariL
            • 9 Years
            2 years, 5 months ago

            Thanks Ruth, great answer!

            1. @persecuted_by_mods
                2 years, 5 months ago

                That said if you have Duffy and livramento they both have good enough fixtures to cover raphina missing that one

                1. JariL
                  • 9 Years
                  2 years, 5 months ago

                  That's true also, I have Livra. Looking for a Greenwood replacement, I think I'll keep this week (unless we get early team news that he's not starting) and maybe go for Grealish next week.

    2. Flynny
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Hi....which set up looks best here before my gw8 wildcard?

      Thanks

      A....no hits
      Salah greenwood benrahma raphinha
      Ronaldo (c) Antonio king

      B.... - 4
      Salah greenwood benrahma sissoko
      Ronaldo lukaku (c) Antonio

      C..... - 8
      Salah raphinha benrahma sissoko
      Ronaldo lukaku (c) Antonio

      1. Crunchie
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        what's the defence?

        1. Flynny
          • 9 Years
          2 years, 5 months ago

          Rudiger white livra

      2. Thinkering like a Boss
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        A

    3. Arteta
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Cancelo really didn't follow my script with that 12 pointer against Chelsea. He was supposed to blank against them and Liverpool so I could buy him for 6.0 the following week.

    4. My heart goes Salalalalah
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Leicester in tatters

      1. Ógie
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        They are lucky not to be 3 or 4 goals down.

      2. Steve The Spud
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        Barnes still a good option

      3. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        Out Foxed.

      4. F4L
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        highly unlikely to get out the group now, disappointing for them

        1. Ógie
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          2 years, 5 months ago

          Very uphill battle for Leicester and Napoii now in that group alright.

          Moscow and Warsaw will not be very hospitable places to play away games especially as the winter sets in.

      5. Jimmers
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        So many players not performing - Maddison, Barnes........

    5. FantasyHero
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Are the Brazilian players not going for international games again?

    6. Super John McGinn-
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Looks like I’ve definitely got to Wildcard which is annoying missing so many price rises thinking something like this.

      Ramsdale Foster
      Cancelo, Dias, Alonso, Rudiger, Livramento
      Salah, Grealish, Raphinia, ESM, Brownhill
      Lukaku, Antonio, Jimenez

      0.2 ITB

      Would do Jimenez + Dias > Toney + Trent when he’s back but got exact money for this right now so is it worth just having them and benching trent

      1. Crunchie
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        Replied earler 🙂

    7. Threat Level Midnight
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Torres > Raph is the easiest move of the year to date.

    8. S.Kuqi
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Plp are afraid to use their wildcard until some expert signals that it is ok to press the button.

    9. el polako
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      We might be shite at football but Polish fans know how to make noise.
      Amazing atmosphere at Legia tonight.

      1. AC/DC AFC
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        A good result too.

        I thought they'd win and picked it on SofaScore predictions.

    10. Ibralicious
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      So Cancelo sitting at about 77% with two more price changes to go. It's looking likely he'll be 6.2 before the GW7 deadline huh?

      1. Threat Level Midnight
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        I don't think so, no.

      2. Carefree Crew
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        Guessing it's majority wildcarders that are bringing him in now considering he is away to Liverpool this GW. So hopefully he won't rise again, but that's obviously total speculation on my part.

      3. Joey Tribbiani
        • 3 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        omg hes gone up like 30% just today

      4. bitm2007
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        Lots getting him on WC so unlikely to go up.

      5. Eh, just one more thing ...
        • 12 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        TAA replacement in many cases I expect.

    11. acidicleo
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Which is more appealing for next 3 or 4 weeks I.e good fixtures for Chelsea and difficult ones for united..

      A) Ronaldo plus 2 Chelsea defenders or
      B) Lukaku plus 1 Chelsea defender

      1. bautasten
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        B

    12. El Matador
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Please can someone explain why people are so against selling Trent? Fixtures are mixed moving forward. City/Chelsea fixtures much better.

      Am I missing something?

      1. F4L
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        because he's the only nailed on attacking full back out of the best 3 teams

        1. El Matador
          • 10 Years
          2 years, 5 months ago

          Agree but so is Rudiger, Azpi, maybe Cancelo etc

          1. F4L
            • 9 Years
            2 years, 5 months ago

            Rudiger/Azpi not attacking, and then Cancelo will still occasionally be rotated. But yeah, Cancelo is as close to TAA as you can possibly get, but that doesn't mean you have to pick between the 2, just get both

          2. Jimmers
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 13 Years
            2 years, 5 months ago

            They are trailing in his wake..........

          3. acidicleo
            • 7 Years
            2 years, 5 months ago

            From attacking points perspective Cancelo can rival TAA but not the other 2..

      2. acidicleo
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        He will be fresh for gw8..
        Vs City his injury avoids a benching headache..

        1. _figu
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          2 years, 5 months ago

          He might not start that game.

      3. _figu
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        They are afraid not to own him.

        Takes 2ft for most to get him Back without wc

      4. Carefree Crew
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        "Guessing" he will only miss this GW which is versus City anyway so not expecting a clean sheet. (2 week international break to recover) Watford & Brighton either side of Man U, where Ole has set up for a 0 0 against the top teams, so he has the potential to pick up points over these 3 games. Using a transfer to take him out, knowing you'll likely want him back soon & having other priorities with transfers.

    13. Netters2018
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Less than 12% ownership for Son my differential moving forward!!!

      1. el polako
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        Shame he plays for Spurs.

        1. Netters2018
          • 5 Years
          2 years, 5 months ago

          3 goals in 5 happy with that ratio

          1. BeWater
            • 3 Years
            2 years, 5 months ago

            That's a really good return considering we have played City, Arsenal and Chelsea and have been playing garbage football all season.

          2. el polako
            • 6 Years
            2 years, 5 months ago

            7 mids that cost far less than Son and scored better so far this season.
            Plus Spurs playing worse and worse as weeks go on, but suit yourself.

            1. Netters2018
              • 5 Years
              2 years, 5 months ago

              Valid points also i just think spurs cant get much worse and fixtures improving so he should do well... has the scope to haul aswell

      2. F4L
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        Son's a bit like Vardy right now. Both good options, just playing for underperforming sides

      3. NotsoSpursy
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        Son is a great option

        1. Bushwhacker
          • 4 Years
          2 years, 5 months ago

          Spoken truly as someone who didn't watch the Arsenal match!

      4. Aimar
        • 4 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        Do u prefer son or kane on a WC ?

    14. NotsoSpursy
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      WC defense.
      Is this too risky if Alonso is benched then Livramento plays against Chelsea ?

      Rudiger, Alonso, Cancelo, Livramento, TAA *

      1. bautasten
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        Yeah probably. Maybe downgrade TAA and keep the funds?

    15. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Is Ronaldo >> Lukaku crazy?

      1. AC/DC AFC
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        Maybe considering Lukaku's recent form.

      2. bautasten
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        Could go either way this week. For free and long term it's probably a good move. Such a tricky spot imo...

      3. acidicleo
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        Isn't it a very popular move this week?

        1. RAFA THE GAFFA
          • 7 Years
          2 years, 5 months ago

          No idea! Not looked at anything

      4. F4L
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        this week, yeah. Southampton have been solid enough this season

      5. SouthCoastSaint
        • 12 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        Given how this weeks gone I think it’s an awful move.

        1. Bushwhacker
          • 4 Years
          2 years, 5 months ago

          Southampton aren't Juventus . . .Ronaldo showed not much until Fergie time.

          1. SouthCoastSaint
            • 12 Years
            2 years, 5 months ago

            Wonder what the odds were for us to clean sheet against Man City?

      6. Bushwhacker
        • 4 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        On fixtures absolutely not. I've both but am regretting it, I'd ditch one of them if there weren't other fires.

    16. KUNingas
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Worth taking a hit before WC next week?

      A) TAA, Bamford -> Christensen, Lukaku
      B) TAA, Bamford, Shaw -> Alonso, Lukaku, Marcal (-4)

      Quite tight to get 3 playing defenders as bench have Tsimikas and Ayling who is out..

      1. _figu
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        B might not help. Both Alonso and Marcal not nailed. I'd you do B go Rudi White/Tierney

        1. _figu
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          2 years, 5 months ago

          Stupid autocorrect

        2. KUNingas
          • 8 Years
          2 years, 5 months ago

          Thanks, leaning towards A

      2. Crunchie
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        A or B with Rudiger and Coudy if you cannot afford Semedo

    17. Gudjohnsen
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Is it a waste using fh this gw?

      Current team is
      Sá, Steer
      TAA, Rudiger, Tierney, Williams, Livramento
      Salah, Raphinha, Benrahma, Jota, Gilmour
      Antonio, Lukaku, Armstrong

      1. bautasten
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        Yes, wait for DGW/BGW imo.

      2. Geordie19
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        Yeah I’d say so personally

      3. Iceball
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        Save FH for blanks or double gw

      4. Couch Potato
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        Keep the FH, there will be much better weeks to use it

    18. Iceball
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      WC team for my son
      Ramsdale Foster
      Cancelo Rudiger Christensen Semedo Livramento
      Salah Raphinha ESR Allan Brownhill
      Ronaldo Lukaku Antonio
      433 most weeks, maybe sometimes Allan in. When I wanna get TAA back in gw10 maybe then downgrade a fwd. What do you think?

      1. Geordie19
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        Yeah could work but I think I’d find it hard to downgrade those strikers as they could score or haul any week

      2. Crunchie
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        Yep will do the same thing. Jimmy to Toney and Chlsea defende or Dias to TAA. But i will have Antonio and not Ronaldo

    19. Geordie19
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Who would you pick for a 1 week punt.
      Gallagher
      Zaha
      Trossard.
      Cheers

      1. bautasten
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        Zaha out of those. On pens and Lei ain't exactly solid at the back.

        1. Geordie19
          • 7 Years
          2 years, 5 months ago

          Thank you

      2. Bushwhacker
        • 4 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        For one week? Zaha probably ; but Gallagher for the season.

        1. Geordie19
          • 7 Years
          2 years, 5 months ago

          Yeah as wildcarding next week. Thanks

      3. F4L
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        Zaha

        1. Geordie19
          • 7 Years
          2 years, 5 months ago

          Thanks

    20. Erez Avni
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      is this the most boring WC draft you’ve seen today? and if so, how will you make it sexier?

      Sa
      TAA Cancelo Rudiger White Liver
      Salah Raphinha Benrahma Sar Allan
      Lukaku Jimenez Antonio

      1. Iceball
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        Forget TAA next 3 weeks and make it sexier

        1. Erez Avni
          • 7 Years
          2 years, 5 months ago

          yes I forgot that I brought Dias instead

      2. Bushwhacker
        • 4 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        I'd ditch Jiminez for ASM as you cannot get sexier than that. Put the money in midfield.

      3. Crunchie
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        Sarr to Gallagher (or similar) and upgrade White to Chelsea defender and a 4.5m keeper

    21. The Train Driver
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Anyone done Bamford > Antonio before tonights game?

    22. It’s gonna Ben Mee
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      WC GTG?

      Ramsdale Foster
      Alonso Rudi Cancelo Duffy Livramento
      Salah Saka Raphinha Sarr Luiz
      Lukaku Vardy Antonio

      0.9m ITB

    23. F4L
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Gonna start Traore again this week, I still believe

      1. Geordie19
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        Could give Ritchie a big game

    24. Ruffio
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      I’m on wildcard. Got Trent at 7.5. Looks like he’s falling to 7.5 tonight. I want to keep him in the wildcard team I think.
      Any benefit in selling any buying back. Or if he could fall again sell for wildcard with a plan tk get him back after the break?

      1. Ruffio
        • 8 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        First part of the question is sell him and get him back before the wildcard deadline for clarity. apologies!

      2. Camzy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        He will not drop twice. Once at most.

      3. Geordie19
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        I think if selling, you may not want him back until 10 due to fixtures. I think depending on when you wc, I’d say keep until more news about the length of injury comes out