What can we expect from Newcastle’s FPL players under Eddie Howe?

Eddie Howe’s appointment as Newcastle United head coach has rekindled a bit of interest in the struggling Magpies from a Fantasy Premier League (FPL) perspective, chiefly Callum Wilson (£7.3m).

The former Bournemouth boss has signed a three-year deal on Tyneside, succeeding Steve Bruce in the hotseat at St. James’ Park.

It’s not just the change of manager or the divisive takeover at board level that has seen the Magpies garner modest attention in the Fantasy world but also the upcoming fixtures, which look even better now that Brentford have suffered a mini-slump in form.

This Scout Report takes a look at what we can expect from a Howe-led Newcastle, assessing his managerial style and preferred formation at Bournemouth, the squad he has inherited, and his previous with a trio of former Cherries who are now on his new club’s books.

THE HISTORY

The second-youngest of the 18 permanent Premier League head coaches currently in a job, 43-year-old Howe is nevertheless no rookie when it comes to management.

The best part of 10 years in charge of Bournemouth was punctuated by a 21-month spell at Burnley, a stay that was only ended by the death of Howe’s mother and – contrary to popular belief – not ‘homesickness’.

Howe’s achievements with the Cherries are notable. Saving the club from what looked like near-certain relegation to the National League upon his appointment in January 2009, he steered the south coast side to promotion to League One in his very next season.

Guiding Bournemouth to another promotion upon his move back to Dorset in the 2012/13 campaign, he then took the Cherries up to the Premier League at the second time of asking in 2014/15.

Four very respectable finishes – ninth in 2016/17 representing Bournemouth’s best-ever placing in their entire history – preceded a disappointing drop to the second tier in 2019/20 and his departure from Dean Court.

PREFERRED TACTICS

From his very first season in charge of Bournemouth to his farewell match against Everton in July 2020, Howe became synonymous with a 4-4-2 or 4-4-1-1.

The graphic above shows how the Cherries set up against Cardiff City in Gameweek 1 of 2018/19, with future Magpies Ryan Fraser (£5.3m) and Callum Wilson (£7.3m) stationed on the left wing and up front respectively of Howe’s Mike Bassett-approved set-up.

There have been flirtations with a wing-back system in between, with Howe usually – but not exclusively – reserving this set-up for the ‘tougher’ matches when the Cherries came up to the top flight.

The picture above illustrates how Bournemouth were sent out in their 3-0 win over Chelsea at Stamford Bridge in 2017/18, with Fraser at right wing-back and Wilson the spearhead of an attacking trident in a 3-4-3.

MANAGEMENT STYLE

“Attack, attack, attack”, bayed the travelling support midway through Newcastle’s most-recent Premier League outing, a 1-1 draw away at Brighton in Gameweek 11.

In Howe, the Magpies’ faithful are getting someone with a reputation for playing front-foot football.

Despite their limited budget, Bournemouth were twice the seventh highest-scoring side during their five-year stay in the top flight.

Howe himself summed up his managerial approach when appearing on Monday Night Football a year ago:

“We always decided to go on the braver side, the attacking side because we know that if we pictured Bournemouth at our best, it was free-flowing attacking football, it was not sitting back, soaking up pressure and defending.

“We prided ourselves on that and worked on that continually to be better at our attacking play. We almost looked at that as our best form of defence, to attack and attack hard. To entertain.

“I don’t think you can be something you are not; my mindset is to try to win games first, rather than not lose. My mindset when I go into a game, even if people will think we have set up differently, we are deep-lying, we are passive, it’s always to win the game. Always. I don’t think I could ever lose that, I don’t think I could go in with a different mindset.” – Eddie Howe

Echoing those sentiments in his first interview as Newcastle boss, Howe said:

“We love to attack, be front foot, play with speed. I want to see really fast, dynamic movements, a team playing as a team, not as individuals, playing on the front foot, trying to win the game. Not be waiting for the opposition to impose themselves on us, we would need to impose ourselves on the opposition.” – Eddie Howe

A meticulous planner and student of the game (he reportedly spent his ‘gap year’ following the training methods of Diego Simeone in Spain), Howe’s man-management skills have also been praised by his former players:

 “He got the best out of me. I was one of a number of players that he improved in their career and took them to levels that they probably never thought they would get to. That’s the biggest accolade I can give to him, really. He just wanted to improve every single player that he worked with.

“Regardless of what happened off the field, in terms of transfers and players coming in, players going out, he was happiest and he was at his best when he was on the grass coaching players, whether it was one-v-one or with a unit on back-four stuff, midfield stuff. And then, when we all came together, it’d be patterns of play that we’d work on, which we saw come out in the games. That was not by fluke. A lot of the games that we won, and the chances we created, that was all coming from training.” – Simon Francis, speaking to the Athletic

Testimonies from former players, of course, tend to be positive and there have to be lingering doubts over Howe’s other attributes.

The biggest question is over his capacity to shore up a Newcastle defence that is still without a clean sheet in 2021/22: Bournemouth never conceded fewer than 60 goals in any of their five seasons in the Premier League.

Such was the upward trajectory of the Cherries for the bulk of his stay, his ability to improve fortunes when things turn sour is also open to debate. Bournemouth won just 16 of Howe’s final 66 league matches in charge, averaging less than a point per game.

“We just lost our zip a little bit. There are various reasons for that, it was a combination; a lot of injuries, all through the team, and when you lose your best players, as well-documented this season with the amount of injuries in the Premier League, your team gets harmed.

“I think that is when what got harmed for us was confidence levels. If you do not go out into every game thinking you are going to win, or believing you can win, that is when there is trouble for your team.” – Eddie Howe on Bournemouth’s relegation campaign

BOURNEMOUTH UNDER HOWE: ATTACKING STATS

BOURNEMOUTH UNDER HOWE: DEFENSIVE STATS

The two tables above only serve to back up the long-held view of Howe’s Bournemouth: competent going forward but suspect at the back.

Always in the bottom five for goals conceded during their five-year stay, the Cherries were generally bottom-half material for many of the key defensive metrics – particularly ‘big chances’ conceded.

By contrast, Bournemouth were typically upper-mid-table for the main attacking stats until their relegation campaign.

WILSON, FRASER AND RITCHIE UNDER HOWE

CALLUM WILSON

“I wouldn’t sell at any price” – Eddie Howe on Callum Wilson during their time at Bournemouth

Injuries and Wilson have gone hand in hand in FPL, and two serious knee issues limited him to just 25 starts in his first two Premier League seasons. A total of 11 goals across those games was commendable, however.

Eight strikes in 2017/18 represented a below-par return but it was his form during 2018/19 and into the first seven Gameweeks of 2019/20 that saw Wilson at his best under Howe.

In 37 appearances across this period, Wilson plundered 19 goals and 15 assists, racking up 214 FPL points in the process.

Both player and team’s form nosedived thereafter, with Wilson embarking on an incredible run of 15 straight blanks as the Cherries dropped to the Championship.

He’s since picked his form up again on Tyneside, scoring on 16 occasions and assisting a further six goals in his 33 Premier League run-outs for Newcastle.

RYAN FRASER

“The situation with Fraser probably didn’t end as well as it would have liked to. But I know he had a real father-son relationship with him because he could relate to the fact that he’d moved away from home on his own. He was young, Ryan; he was insecure at times with the surroundings and being on his own, he wasn’t comfortable.” – Simon Francis on Eddie Howe’s relationship with Ryan Fraser

Fraser’s time on the south coast ended in ignominy as he opted not to extend his contract during the Covid-affected campaign of 2019/20 and aid with the Cherries’ fight against relegation.

The “wee man” has since said that there is no lingering bad blood with Howe and there’ll be dreams of him resurrecting his stellar form of 2018/19 when he registered 21 attacking returns as a budget midfielder, although anyone who has seen Fraser’s recent abysmal performances for Newcastle will wonder if his peak has been and gone.

Fraser and Wilson combined for a record-threatening 12 goals in that campaign, with the Scotland international supplying a whopping 28 big chances – 10 more than any other FPL midfielder – en route to 14 assists.

In 98 appearances in which he lasted 45+ minutes, Fraser registered 14 goals and 27 assists under Howe, averaging 4.1 points per game.

MATT RITCHIE

“For me my time with him was fantastic, I loved every minute. We have a young hungry group here and I am sure he can bring out the best in them if he is appointed.

“What he did at Bournemouth was nothing short of a miracle. I have all the praise in the world for him. We have some really talented players. It is just about getting the group confidence.” – Matt Ritchie on Eddie Howe

Matt Ritchie (£4.9m) – who is an impressive second for chances created among defenders in 2021/22 – was part of Howe’s Bournemouth side from League One up, although only played under his returning boss for one season in the top flight.

Used almost exclusively as a right-winger in that 2015/16 Premier League campaign, Ritchie delivered four goals and eight assists in 37 appearances. A total of 77 shots was the eighth-best among FPL midfielders in that season. A repeat of that as an ‘out of position’ defender this year would obviously be welcome, even if the Magpies’ clean sheet count remains an ongoing worry.

FINAL THOUGHTS

Initially, interest in Newcastle assets will probably be restricted to Wilson – and even that’s more to do with the Gameweek 12-15 fixtures and the dearth of in-form FPL forwards elsewhere, rather than the change of head coach per se.

Wilson is probably one of the only players we know will be part of Howe’s line-up against Brentford; even Ritchie and Fraser, former favourites of Howe’s, will be competing with Jacob Murphy (£4.9m), Joelinton (£5.8m), Miguel Almiron (£5.2m) and – depending on the set-up – Allan Saint-Maximin (£6.8m) for wide-midfield roles. Jamal Lewis (£4.3m) is also a threat to Ritchie if the latter is now seen as a left-back.

Bournemouth’s fairly dismal defensive record doesn’t bode well for Newcastle’s struggling backline and they’ll remain far from our thoughts for now. Ritchie is one for the watchlist if he’s ‘out of position’ and retains set-piece duties (the Cherries had a strong record for goals from set plays under Howe) but even then, the form of the Chelsea, Manchester City and Liverpool premium defenders and Tino Livramento (£4.5m) will make it hard for a punt like Ritchie to attract serious Fantasy interest.

The midfield is a wait-and-see. Fraser, Ritchie, Joshua King, Junior Stanislas and David Brooks all shone as FPL midfielders for at least one campaign under Howe at Bournemouth, so whoever gets the nod on the flanks or supporting Wilson in attack could provide value in this already productive season for budget midfield gems.

Come January, of course, we may be looking at a whole new bunch of Saudi-financed players to consider…