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The FPL players who are most underperforming their xG ahead of Gameweek 12

Among the underlying statistics on offer in our Members Area is expected goals (xG), which many will be familiar with already. 

Simply put, xG is the measure of a quality of shot based on criteria such as proximity to goal and angle of attempt. For example, a shot from inside the six-yard box will carry a higher xG than a speculative effort from 35 yards.

When these stats are collated for a player, you get an idea of how many goals they should be scoring.

However, it also gives us an opportunity to identify those who are underperforming in front of goal, via their xG delta. This is calculated by subtracting the xG figure from actual goals scored.

So, in this, our latest Fantasy Football Scout Members article, we’ve analysed the top xG underachievers in each respective category ahead of Gameweek 12. Ideally, we’d look at a player’s goalscoring expectation over a longer period of time, but focusing on this season’s data alone does reveal some interesting findings, which we’ll explore below.

FORWARDS

Scout Notes 4

601 Comments Post a Comment
  1. I am 42
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 5 months ago

    Assuming Robertson is out for more than 3 weeks, which triple Pool option will you choose?

    (A)ttacking - Salah Jota TAA
    (B)udget - Salah Jota Tsim
    (C) not gonna triple up aka Salah + either 1 only
    (D)efense - Salah TAA Tsim

    1. SpaceCadet
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      A

      1. I am 42
        • 10 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        not tempt by the extra 3.7m if you opt for Tsim instead of TAA?

        you can upgrade Havertz to Son or Sarr to Foden

        1. SpaceCadet
          • 10 Years
          2 years, 5 months ago

          No mate. TAA stays

    2. I am 42
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      planning to go (B)udget as I can straight swap Tsim to TAA when Robertson is back. Jota is still a good pick during Afcon.

    3. GreennRed
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      C

    4. Philosopher's Stones
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Looking at B myself

    5. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      I have already got D, so D for me.

    6. DannyDrinkVodka
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Tempted by B myself, let’s hear what the status is of course

  2. SpaceCadet
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 5 months ago

    Any suggestions here folks? 2 fts, 0.6m itb

    Foster
    Taa cancelo rudiger chilwell
    Salah havertz raphina Gallagher
    Vardy Antonio

    Sanchez sarr omo Scarlett

    1. Pops15
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Seems like a good week to make a move for a Spurs assest but that depends if you are in the Conte hype train.

      Otherwise maybe look at bringing in James for Rudi. So much more points potential for the same price. Then you could reassess next week and see if you want to move for a Spurs player.

      1. SpaceCadet
        • 10 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        Thinking vardy and havertz > kane and jota but not convinced.

  3. PapaWengzz
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 5 months ago

    Vardy, ASM > Kane (c), Broja (-4)?

    ASM/Broja are on the bench

    1. HurriKane
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Any other way to fund Kane?. ASM could be a cheeky differential given newcastle nice upcoming fixtures

  4. gellinmagellan
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 5 months ago

    Gallagher, Cornet or Raphinha...who would you go for?

    1. HurriKane
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Gallagher

  5. Sz21
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 5 months ago

    Anything standing out here to move. A few ideas. Still have my WC which needs to be considered. Thinking these moves for now.
    1. Bachmann -> Steele/Foster. Prefer Steele for this one game.
    2. Gray-> Gallagher, Cornet. Short term move- maybe Cornet?

    Sanchez.
    TAA, Chilwell, Cancelo, Livramento.
    Salah, Raphinha, Benrahma.
    Vardy, Jimenez, Antonio.
    Bachmann, Rudiger, Gray, Bissouma.
    2ft, 1.1 ITB. WC. OR about 45k.

    1. HurriKane
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      2

  6. HurriKane
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 5 months ago

    This is as hard as it gets. Which trio do you prefer ?

    A) Son Jota Wilson

    B) Kane Gallagher ESR

    Ramsdale Foster
    TAA Cancelo James Livra Duffy
    _______ Salah Foden _______Mbeumo
    Toney ________,Hwang

    1. GreennRed
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      B

    2. SoulShakinTex
      • 2 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Hard! I think I prefer A, but with Gallagher instead of Mbeumo if possible.

      1. HurriKane
        • 11 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        Mbeumo will be in my team regardless of which option i go for. (Since i own him already

    3. Hotdogs for Tea
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      A

    4. _Gunner
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      A

  7. Philosopher's Stones
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 5 months ago

    Seems the perks of being a fantasy scout at the official site is you get to buy some awesome drugs

    https://www.premierleague.com/news/2351017

    1. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      tbf, he was unlucky not to get anything vs Norwich 😀

      1. Philosopher's Stones
        • 3 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        Yeah, but "rivalling Salah for FPL threat"? LOL

  8. Chaldaea
    • 2 Years
    2 years, 5 months ago

    Hi,

    Foster
    TAA-James-Rudiger-Livra
    Jota-Salah-Havertz*-Raph
    Toney-Kane

    Sanchez-Veltman*-ESR-Perica

    2FT - 1.5 ITB

    Current thinking is Veltman to Cancel and Havertz to B Silva.

    Feels like B Silva very much in the middle ground of price between the Gallagher and Foden. Does he have too low of a ceiling and rotation risk to have much interest?

  9. Ruinenlust
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 5 months ago

    Pick one to bench: Rudi, Raphi, Vsrdy

    1. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Raphinha

    2. Hotdogs for Tea
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Tough choice - the defender normally

    3. SpaceCadet
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      vardy

  10. Ci Siamo
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 5 months ago

    I have Kane already so which move is best?

    A) Vardy —> Ronaldo (c)

    B) Vardy and Gray —> Son (c) and Wilson (-4)

    Thanjs

    1. BERGKOP
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      B easy

  11. as33
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 5 months ago

    Best keeper for 5.2m?

    1. House Frey Wedding Planner
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      De Gea might be a good option with Man Utd's upcoming fixture swing.

  12. as33
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 5 months ago

    Che,Ars

    1. House Frey Wedding Planner
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Think it's only Chelsea that's tough. Arsenal at home is 3 on the FDR which is about right. Plus there's Watford next game.

      DDG is a good shot stopper and should rack up save points and maybe bonus points as well.

  13. _Gunner
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 5 months ago

    Ronaldo + Mount > Kane + Foden for Free

    Yes or No?

    1. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      No

    2. Gunners in Haaland
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      No

    3. AD2110
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Y

  14. Jonesfromthere
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 5 months ago

    Kane owners are you captaining?

    1. House Frey Wedding Planner
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Haven't yet made the transfer but will by the end of week.

      I wouldn't captain him this week and would want to see an upturn in club form before captaining him

      1. _Gunner
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        Who did you get Kane in for ? If I may ask

        1. House Frey Wedding Planner
          • 5 Years
          2 years, 5 months ago

          It will be for Vardy

    2. JoeTweaks
      • 2 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      I'll cap Salah

    3. Gunners in Haaland
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Yes

  15. b91jh
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 5 months ago

    Foden or Jota?

    1. Jafalad
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Jota.

    2. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Jota

    3. Karan14
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Foden

    4. Gunners in Haaland
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Foden

    5. JoeTweaks
      • 2 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Jota

    6. SALVA
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Flip a coin

  16. Miguel Sanchez
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 5 months ago

    Sell Auba or Vardy for Kane?

    1. Jafalad
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Auba. Vardy has good fixtures.

    2. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Auba

  17. Grand Thibauto
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 5 months ago

    Does Robertson injury and Tsimikas price point tempts you to hold off Jota for now?

    1. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Its probably going to be a 1-2 weeks thing, so not worth it imo unless you are WCing soon.

      1. Grand Thibauto
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        If it's that, then makes sense. I was hearing some rumblings about 8 weeks injury, which is 10+ gws minimum

    2. DAZZ
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Entirely depends on length of injury to be fair. Anything less than 3 gameweeks it isnt worth the headache surely

    3. FantasyClub
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Not really.
      What’s actually holding me off Jota is the possibility of having Origi as an option especially if Mané is ruled out for at least a few weeks

    4. House Frey Wedding Planner
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      It is tempting.

      Does depend on the length of injury though....if Robbo is only out a couple of weeks then it's not worth the move

    5. Colonel Shoe 肝池
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      dunno, he holds up a pool slot, youre unlikely to play him ahead of the premium che, city and taa options, so while 3.9 playing pool def sounds immense, will you actually reap the benefit by the time robbo is back

  18. noquarternt
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 5 months ago

    2FTs
    Havertz + Shaw - >

    A) Jota + Reguillon + 1.2

    B) Gallagher + Trent + 0.2

    1. Gunners in Haaland
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      B

    2. FantasyClub
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      B by a mile

    3. Root
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      I guess you just need to get Trent. I'm doing Havertz Rudiger -> Jota TAA this week. But Gallagher is also a solid pick.

  19. Miguel Sanchez
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 5 months ago

    Play one:

    A) Sarr (MAN)
    B) Vardy (CHE) - vs Chilwell/James double up

    1. JoeTweaks
      • 2 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      If Shaw is out for the match, I'd say play Sarr...Telles/Dalot aren't good defenders.

    2. FantasyClub
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      I’d definitely rather A)
      With B you’d want Vardy to score but then you want your double clean sheet/assist/goal…how does that work?

      1. Miguel Sanchez
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        It’s a contingency hedge - how often do all XI in your team return

        1. FantasyClub
          • 3 Years
          2 years, 5 months ago

          A contingency hedge with a double up in defence!? I don’t think so, definitely not for me, not with a double up that’s for sure

  20. SALVA
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 5 months ago

    Which one you prefer?

    A) Jota/Kane

    B) Vardy/Son

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      A

    2. Gunners in Haaland
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      A

    3. Bavarian
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      B

  21. DAZZ
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 5 months ago

    Semedo + Havertz > Tsimikas + Son -4
    Havertz + Vardy > Jota + Kane -4

    Tough decisions, leaning towards Kane and Jota

    1. SALVA
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Jota Kane, but save this week and do it for free next

    2. JoeTweaks
      • 2 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      If any,the second option

    3. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Jota Kane

  22. Gunners in Haaland
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 5 months ago

    Morning all!

    Steele
    TAA Cancelo Chilwell Livramento
    Salah Mbeumo Gallagher
    Kane Ronaldo Hwang

    Sánchez ESR Jansson Sissoko

    0.6ITB
    A) Jansson -> Reguilon
    B) Save FT

    1. JoeTweaks
      • 2 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      B

  23. tricpic
    • 14 Years
    2 years, 5 months ago

    Ronaldo to Kane
    Or Havertz to Jota
    Or both for -4

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Havertz to Jota

  24. Tomerick
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 5 months ago

    What are the chances of Havertz starting with Lukaku back?

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Lower but I think he still starts vs Leicester

      Lots of competition now with Pulisic, Mount, Werner, Ziyech, Hudson-Odoi and Havertz competing for just two spots

      1. Tomerick
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 5 months ago

        Worth a hit to drop him you reckon?

        1. Miguel Sanchez
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          2 years, 5 months ago

          Perhaps - would wait til the Friday pressers to see who is available Chelsea. But I anticipate a front three of Mount Lukaku CHO vs Leicester if they are all at Cobham now training

          1. Miguel Sanchez
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 7 Years
            2 years, 5 months ago

            I do realise the contradiction I have now made

            1. Haa-lala-land
              • 3 Years
              2 years, 5 months ago

              Ha! That's the effect Tuchel can have on us!

            2. Tomerick
              • 9 Years
              2 years, 5 months ago

              Haha thanks though

    2. DAZZ
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Enough of a chance lukaku starts to warrant selling Havertz IMO. Thanks for the 17 points but goodbye Kai.

  25. UnitednationsXI
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 5 months ago

    Morning dzz, have 2FTs and 5.5m so can go in lots of directions. best combo here?

    A: Kane + Mbeumo + Wilson
    B: Kane + Mbeumo + Jota
    C: Son + Jimmy + Wilson
    D: Son + Jota + Wilson (-4)

    1. BERGKOP
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      A

  26. Shark Team
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 5 months ago

    Which one?
    A) Son Wilson
    B) Foden Kane -4

    1. BERGKOP
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Flip a coin. I'd lean A

  27. Concrete
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 5 months ago

    Have James and Rudiger

    Would you dg Rudiger to Reguilon?

    Y or N

    1. BERGKOP
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      No

  28. Ci Siamo
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 5 months ago

    If you to plump for one as a punt?

    A) Reguillon

    B) Emerson Royale

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      A

    2. Karan14
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Currently A but lets see after this week. I will get one of them for GW13.

    3. BERGKOP
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      A

  29. DannyDrinkVodka
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 5 months ago

    Would the Robertson injury deter you from going Dias>TAA with an FT this week?

    1. Haa-lala-land
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      Perhaps not the best time, pool have conceded 5 in their last two, and now without Robbo. Nothing to say Man City won't get a cleanie at home to Everton

  30. Haa-lala-land
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 5 months ago

    Emerson Royale with :

    A) Reguillon
    B) Tsimikas
    C) Cheese

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 5 months ago

      C - go European