Pro Pundits

FPL Q&A: Trossard, how many forwards should we play and Salah captaincy

The 40 days of chaos are amongst us and I am very excited for the next ten Gameweeks of football, which will come thick and fast.

I asked the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) community to send in some questions for me to answer, getting many regarding Harry Kane (£12.2m) and Heung-Min Son (£10.3m).

I’ve already written about my thinking with these two in my article last week and spoke about it at length on this week’s episode of The FPL Wire (44:00 onwards), so you can check out my opinion there. I should mention that I have sold Pierre Emerick­-Aubameyang (£10.0m) and Kai Havertz (£8.1m) this week, purchasing Kane and Conor Gallagher (£5.9m) in return. I could have gone for the alternative duo of Callum Wilson (£7.4m) and Son but my reasons are outlined in those links.

Let’s move on to the questions.


Q: Why does the FPL community dislike Leandro Trossard (£6.5m) so much? Brighton and Hove Albion are a rapidly improving side and he is getting close to talismanic status for them. His next four matches scream goals after back-to-back hauls.  (@HinduMonkey)

A. It is interesting that many aren’t looking at him closely but I think that has to do with him clocking an average of just ten returns over the last two seasons. It is worth noting that he is gaining a little bit of traction this week and I think that has to do with FPL managers preferring him as this current out-of-position, false nine option for Brighton, despite not knowing how long this will continue. If he does so for a couple more weeks, I think managers will be quick to jump on him. Many are focusing their transfers on a Spurs attacker or Diogo Jota (£7.5m) at the moment, which also explains the lack of love for Trossard. I have looked into his numbers so far this season and some are interesting. This is his rank amongst midfielders:

  • Touches in final third: 4th
  • Shots: 4th
  • Shots in the box: 4th
  • Expected Goal Involvement (xGI): 17th (second-best over the last two gameweeks, when playing false nine)
  • Big Chances: 27th (two big chances from the two matches as false nine)
  • Chances Created: 14th

Until Trossard moved up front, his numbers were indicative of a lot of low-quality volume chances but the early signs when playing as a false nine are very encouraging. In fact, thanks to your question, I’m paying a lot closer attention to him than before and will have him high on my watchlist if he continues this. However, one player is outperforming these numbers at his price point – Jarrod Bowen (£6.4m), who is behind only Mohamed Salah (£13.0m) for xGI since Gameweek 5 and has a good run of upcoming fixtures from Gameweek 16. Not that fixtures are important for West Ham these days, as they have blanked just once this season and only Manchester City have more Premier League goals this calendar year.


Q: Not a single forward rank inside the top ten for points across the past five weeks and only two are in the top 20. Just a phase, or should we start moving cash and switching to a 4-5-1 or 5-4-1 formation? (@FPL_Banger)

A. I have also noticed that forwards haven’t been doing well lately. Kane’s manager, Romelu Lukaku’s (£11.5m) fitness and Cristiano Ronaldo’s (£12.4m) fixtures are the reasons why these important cogs of the FPL wheel haven’t been a big part of the conversation in recent weeks. I think this is going to change, given the fixtures for all three which is why I think it might be worth reserving a place in your team for a premium striker. Kane and Ronaldo have great fixtures in the festive period and Lukaku plays for one of the best teams in the league.

At a lower price point, I don’t think there are many options but, depending on your team structure and spread of funds, Michail Antonio (£8.2m), Ivan Toney (£6.7m) and Wilson might be important players in the festive fixture crunch. My problem with going 4-5-1 or 5-4-1 is that the cheap bench-filling forward options don’t actually play, which isn’t the case with defenders and midfielders. We will need our benches in December and there is great value in £4.5-5.0m defenders and £5.5-6.0m midfielders. You mentioned that no forward ranks amongst the highest scorers of the past five matches, yet more than half of the top ten for expected goals (xG) in the last six Gameweeks are forwards. Ever-evolving, I don’t think the state of play will remain idle and, given these factors, I think having at least two playing strikers seems prudent.


Q: Is Mohamed Salah still a captaincy lock? I have Reece James (£5.9m) and Joao Cancelo (£6.5m) – if I’d captained them over the last two Gameweeks, I’d be much better off. (@tony_earnshaw)

Hi Tony. I still haven’t seen anything from any other player in the league that would make me remove captaincy from Salah. You’re talking about having done better with James and Cancelo but that is looking at two specific Gameweeks and, when you look at players in a very short sample size, anything can happen. The shorter the duration, the higher potential variance. Over the season, Salah has been in a separate stratosphere of his own when it comes to underlying numbers as well as efficiency. I don’t know how possible it is to consistently rely on these full-backs to produce attacking returns but I do agree that clean sheet potential gives them a high ceiling for points. That said, I think Salah also offers this in his current form. I have noticed the numbers start to dip slightly in the last two Gameweeks but I think I need to see something a lot more from the other players before betting against the Egyptian.

That’s it from me for this week. I hope you have a good Gameweek and I’ll see you before the next deadline!

733 Comments Post a Comment
  1. ClaudesMackerelelé
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    "Bobby, doing well but needs time"

    What do we make of this? This sounds like he might be back sooner than mid December, no?

    I'm hovering over havertz and vardy to jota and kane...

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Not a huge concern if Firmino comes back early. Jota is still a long term pick when you factor the fixture pile-up in Dec and AFCON in Jan

  2. Ginkapo FPL
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Nathan Ferguson

    Its time. All aboard

    1. Philosopher's Stones
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Haven't seen this train for some time. What's the ticket price right now?

      1. Ginkapo FPL
        • 12 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Probably 3.8 or something ludicrously cheap

        1. Ze_Austin
          • 5 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          My apologies

          4.5m, due to the hype

          1. Ginkapo FPL
            • 12 Years
            2 years, 4 months ago

            Wow

        2. Philosopher's Stones
          • 3 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          Absolutely gold if he can nail down the starting spot

  3. BrockLanders
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    KDB COVID 19

  4. Philosopher's Stones
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    If there's reincarnation, I'm pretty certain Bielsa was Darwin in his previous life. The guy has got the word "evolution" stuck on his lips. 😛

  5. Ze_Austin
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    https://twitter.com/FFScout/status/1461678370098487297?s=20

    Ferguson exists! Well, almost

    McArthur hamstring. I hope Eze comes in for him, not Schlupp

    Would be fun to see how Viera tweaks the squad now. Hopefully more firepower with McArthur's replacement

  6. AD105
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Duffy/Mbuemo > Johnson/Gallagher worth a -4? Generally don’t play Duffy

    Squad:

    Ramsdale Foster
    TAA Cancelo Chilwell Livra Duffy
    Salah Foden Raph Mbuemo Brownhill
    Vardy Antonio Jiminez

    1. Mambino
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      No - stick with Mbeumo for this GW and roll your transfer and do those moves for free next GW

  7. Diedhiou See That?
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Which combo:

    A. Regullion + Foden
    B. Chilwell + Jota

    Already have:

    James, TAA, Cancelo

    1. momomaimai
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      A

  8. CrouchDown
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Who scores more over next 3?

    (A) Foden + Raph + Wilson

    (B) Mbeumo + ESR + Kane

    1. Diedhiou See That?
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      A

    2. Lecky Legs FC
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      A

    3. TopBinFc
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Looks like Foden is doubtful

        1. Annie
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          he's available no?

    4. Iceball
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Ramsdale
      TAA Cancelo James Chilwell Livramento
      Salah(C) Foden Mbeumo
      Kane(V) Antonio
      Foster Raphinha Pukki Brownhill
      Agree with starting XI and subs?
      Might gamble on Kane(C) but probably enough to have him this week, see whats going on.

    5. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Foden has "disturbance in his leg"

      1. Root
        • 12 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Source?

        1. mikey
          • 14 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          Pep

      2. Philosopher's Stones
        • 3 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        What?!

      3. Mambino
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        I love these injury terms these days - I mean WTF is disturbance in your leg supposed to mean?

        1. Zimo
          • 5 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          It's turning to the dark side

      4. Tonyawesome69
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        "....will be available on Sunday"

        1. Tonyawesome69
          • 5 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          Scratch that.

          "Jack, I don't think so. Phil we will see." [Availability]

          https://twitter.com/ManCity/status/1461688826930380814?t=4-eqvElGl-Esi2znjaEqxw&s=19

      5. Ginkapo FPL
        • 12 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Is he a Jedi

      6. Philosopher's Stones
        • 3 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        "Foden had a good time with his girl last night. So has a disturbance in his leg. But he'll be fine for Sunday."

      7. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
        • 14 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        “But he’ll be fine for Sunday”

        Foden benched Sunday then

      8. Pork Pie Sausage Roll
        • 13 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        But is he “evolving”?

    6. panda07
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      KDB COVID

      1. Mambino
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        is it the same Covid that Son didn't have or is it real covid?

    7. Millie7
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Ramsdale
      TAA Chilwell Cancelo Livra
      Salah Havertz Raphinha Townsend
      Vardy Antonio

      Foster duffy mbuemo Scarlett

      1ft
      A) Havertz > Jota
      B) Vardy > ???

    8. Loweowl
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Try again advice needed

      On a WC what we think of this
      Guita Foster
      TAA James Cancelo Reg Livra
      Salah Gallagher ESR Foden Brownhill
      Wilson CR7 Armstrong

      All thoughts welcome

      What team to start this week?

      1. Mambino
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        No spurs?

        1. Loweowl
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          Reguilon and was going to see how Kane did this week then swap CR7 to Kane

          Or can bring in Son for ESR and do CR7 to Antonio

    9. Purse83
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Afternoon guys

      Best forward below £6.5m over next 4/5 game weeks?

    10. Stupendous
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Jesus Captain!

      Who else is with me???

      Always scores v Everton!

      1. Nomar
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        I have him, that’s been bad enough.

        Capping him just adds insult to injury.

    11. Ze_Austin
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      https://twitter.com/FFScout/status/1461688600026882053?s=20

      KDB Covid-19

      Remember when KDB news shook the template? Good ol' days

      1. Nomar
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        The times they are a changing.

        1. Philosopher's Stones
          • 3 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          How does it feel, to be complete unowned..

    12. SpaceCadet
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Feeling punty…….Bernardo or Bowen?

      1. Miguel Sanchez
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Bowen

        1. SpaceCadet
          • 10 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          Bernardo seems pretty nailed now with all these absentees in the city mids. Still Bowen?

          1. Miguel Sanchez
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 7 Years
            2 years, 4 months ago

            Yeah Bowen has the stats

    13. tomong
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Bench Livramento v Norwich or SmithRowe v Liv??

      1. Nomar
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Bench ESR

      2. tbos83
        • 3 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Same dilemma. Am currently playing Livra

        1. tomong
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          same here, but liverpool has been conceding too...

          1. Toby Lerone
            • 8 Years
            2 years, 4 months ago

            Got ESR first sub, have foden so he may get on anyway. Livra starts

    14. mcsteely
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Mitchell or Guehi? Gut feeling

      1. Nomar
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Mitchell

    15. wulfrunian
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Well i guess Sterling on the left,Mahrez on the right with Jesus up front.

    16. Ginkapo FPL
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Does KDB have Covid?

      1. Nomar
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Appears so

      2. Miguel Sanchez
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Yes

    17. AnfieldLad
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      What are peoples initial thoughts on Foden issue?

      I think I’ll just hold, solves a benching headache anyway

      1. Tonyawesome69
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Surely hold and play him

      2. CrouchDown
        • 11 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        I think he plays

      3. TopBinFc
          2 years, 4 months ago

          Dont think he will play, with PSG midweek

      4. Lennox142320
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Pukki or Armstrong for 3rd striker? I’m on bench boost this week. I like Armstrong but Pukki also has a better run of fixtures. Thoughts?

      5. Wensink
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        I'm on my WC and have Rice plugged in as my fifth midfielder and don't love it. Is there a 5.0m or less MF that I'm overlooking?

        1. Root
          • 12 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          Normann

      6. Milk, 1 Šuker
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Foden owners - what are you going to do now? Pep says he has a knock.

        1. Tonyawesome69
          • 5 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          Pushing to be available for Sunday so worst case misses this weekend. Keep and play him.

        2. The Mentaculus
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 2 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          Keeping but not sure whether to bench

      7. Shardlow
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        PEP "We have Jack getting better after he went to the national team. Phil Foden came back with a knock and a problem in his leg, but he is getting better."

        Foden > Jota with my FT?

        1. Shardlow
          • 6 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          PEP "Jack, I don't think so. Phil we will see". [Availability]

          1. Ze_Austin
            • 5 Years
            2 years, 4 months ago

            Late fitness test. He plays or he doesn't, imo

            But available right after that. Got a heavy bench? Time to trust your first sub

        2. Tonyawesome69
          • 5 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          Nope

      8. Philosopher's Stones
        • 3 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Mbeumo -> Foden seeming a bit iffy now or you'd still do it?

        1. Miguel Sanchez
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          Def not now

          1. Philosopher's Stones
            • 3 Years
            2 years, 4 months ago

            Cheers

        2. Tonyawesome69
          • 5 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          Nope. Delay the move

          1. Philosopher's Stones
            • 3 Years
            2 years, 4 months ago

            Cheers

        3. Toby Lerone
          • 8 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          Did this move earlier. Can't catch a break this season

          1. Philosopher's Stones
            • 3 Years
            2 years, 4 months ago

            Oof. That's unlucky, man.

      9. Stupendous
        • 11 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Jesus captain for sure now!

        1. Nomar
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          Like I said earlier, owning him has been bad enough, watching Foden thief up his points.

          Capping him would just heighten the agony.

          1. Stupendous
            • 11 Years
            2 years, 4 months ago

            I'm doing it and confidently!

      10. Van der Faart
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Jota still a decent option longterm even with Firmino likely to be back sooner?

        1. King Kun Ta
          • 8 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          Nahhhh

        2. Tonyawesome69
          • 5 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          Yup, factor in the Dec fixture pile-up and AFCON in Jan