Spot the Differential

Three budget FPL differentials to consider for Gameweek 13 and beyond

Gameweek 13 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is almost upon us, which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned and somewhat unfashionable picks at Watford, Brighton and Hove Albion and Burnley who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

JOSHUA KING

  • FPL ownership: 4.1%
  • Price: £5.6m
  • GW13-17 fixtures: lei | CHE | MCI | bre | bur

Joshua King (£5.6m) has slotted seamlessly into Watford’s attack this season, and has particularly impressed following the arrival of Claudio Ranieri.

Despite a disappointing loan spell at Everton last term, where he could only find 138 Premier League minutes, he has since thrived as the Hornets main centre-forward. Prior to Ranieri’s appointment, he assisted three times against Norwich City and Newcastle United, and has followed that up with four goals in four games under the Italian, including a hat-trick at Goodison Park. It could have been more, too, as he won the opening penalty against Manchester United last weekend, only for Ismaila Sarr (£6.0m) to miss.

Notably, over the last four Gameweeks no player in any position – not even Mohamed Salah (£13.0m) – can better him for goal attempts (17) or big chances (seven), while only the Egyptian has more penalty box touches in that time.

Life at Vicarage Road has been anything but dull since Ranieri’s arrival. In his five games in charge, Watford have scored nine goals and conceded 10, with a visit to a Leicester City side up next who have failed to keep a single clean sheet since the opening day. In fact, the Foxes’ 21 goals conceded is the joint-third worst in the division, while the expected goals (xG) tally is only slightly better. The schedule to follow is admittedly tough, but eases from Gameweek 16 onwards, with games against Brentford (a), Burnley (a), Crystal Palace (h), Wolverhampton Wanderers (a) and West Ham United (h) before the end of the year.

King has delivered a string of impressive displays of late, and given his appealing longer-term schedule, could be the pick of the budget forwards over the festive period.

TARIQ LAMPTEY

Why Duffy was benched and Foden’s fine form: FPL notes from Brighton v Man City 2
  • FPL ownership: 0.8%
  • Price: £4.4m
  • GW13-17 fixtures: LEE | whu | sou | TOT | WOL

Tariq Lamptey (£4.4m) has been Brighton and Hove Albion’s stand-out performer since returning from injury, and was unlucky not to get on the scoresheet against Aston Villa last weekend, when he was denied by a fine save from Emiliano Martinez (£5.5m).

The youngster was substituted late on, with Villa scoring twice soon after his departure, as Graham Potter continues to manage his recovery following his long-term hamstring problem. As a result, he surely won’t start every game in December, but providing you have a strong bench, it shouldn’t be too much of an issue, especially given his budget price tag.

Lamptey’s positioning since returning from injury has been hugely encouraging, playing very far up the right flank and often hugging the touchline. Because of that, since making his first start in Gameweek 11, amongst all defenders, only Reece James (£6.1m) and Ben Chilwell (£6.0m) have touched the ball more often in the opponent’s penalty area, with his four shots in the box only bettered by Chelsea’s wing-backs and team-mate Antonio Rudiger (£5.9m).

Albion now face a Leeds United side who have struggled in attack all season, scoring just seven Premier League goals in seven games in the absence of Patrick Bamford (£7.7m). Encouragingly, for those considering investing, their meeting with Marcelo Bielsa’s side marks a reasonably favourable run, too, with matches against Southampton (a), Wolverhampton Wanderers (h) and Brentford (h) in the coming weeks.

Lamptey has been a real threat down the wing for Brighton in recent matches, and with an ownership of just 0.8%, could be an effective defensive differential.

CHRIS WOOD

Scout Notes 4
  • FPL ownership: 1.3%
  • Price: £6.7m
  • GW13-17 fixtures: TOT | wol | new | WHU | WAT

Chris Wood (£6.7m) may have had a slow start to the season, but has now netted two goals in his last three appearances.

The New Zealand international has been a model of consistency since joining Burnley from Leeds United back in August 2017, scoring at least 10 goals in each of his four top-flight campaigns.

This season, he has posted team-leading totals for goal attempts, shots in the box, efforts on target, big chances and penalty area touches, while his performances over the last three Gameweeks have helped his team beat Brentford and take points from in-form Chelsea and Crystal Palace. That’s coincided with Wood and Maxwel Cornet (£6.1m) being paired together up front, a period which has seen Sean Dyche’s side score more goals than any other team bar Liverpool.

Looking ahead to Gameweek 13, Wood could find some joy against a Tottenham Hotspur backline which is still adapting to a new style of play under Antonio Conte, while fixtures to follow against Wolverhampton Wanderers (a), Newcastle United (a), West Ham United (h) and Watford (h) offer further encouragement that he can kick-on.

Burnley appear to have moved up a gear in recent weeks, with more confidence on the ball, and given that Wood has scored two in his last three, could be a nice differential pick for our frontlines.

1,032 Comments Post a Comment
  1. The Mandalorian
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Who is better going forward

    1. Gallagher

    Or

    2. ESR

    Palace and Arsenal are 1 and 2 on the fixture ticker for attack over Xmas.

    1. Eh, just one more thing ...
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      1

    2. MaRooney 5
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      1

  2. Raf
    • 14 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Best Havertz replacement?

    1. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      jota

      1. Raf
        • 14 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        was thinking gallagher or b.silva?. have jota

        1. Ajax Hamsterdam
          • 9 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          oh b silva out of them 2

    2. Stranger Mings
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Jota

      1. Ajax Hamsterdam
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        yoda already has jota little jedi

  3. EL tridente
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Best transfer to make?
    A) Foden and White to Gallagher and James for a hit
    B) Rüdiger to James
    C) White to Reguilon

    1. jimmy.floyd
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      B

    2. redsallstars
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      B. I’d hold onto foden until more news on his injury. Don’t want to get rid of white v Newcastle

  4. jimmy.floyd
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    A Sa Chilly to Ramsdale James (-4)
    B Chilly to Alonso

    1. redsallstars
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      B. Wouldn’t get rid of keeper for a hit and wolves v Norwich

  5. Boss Hogg
    • 14 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Chilwell to...

    a. Alonso
    b. Reguilon
    c. Lamptey
    d. Someone else

    TAA, Cancelo, James, CHILWELL (Livra)

    ??!

    1. Stranger Mings
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      A

    2. jimmy.floyd
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      A

    3. Dr. Rog
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      for me its either A the straight swap, or C and shifting to 343. B feels like neither to me.

      I favour A because i think the chelsea system is broken for the game, but C is the FPL standard move to make just because Lampy and Livra actually rotate perfectly.

    4. MaRooney 5
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      A

    5. Pompel
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      A
      or C if you can put the extra funds to good use

  6. Stranger Mings
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    A) chilly & Omo to Alonso & reguilion or b) chilly & livra to James & reguilion?

  7. Jebiga
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    there is no chance to bench Antonio over Duffy, right ? 🙂

    1. jimmy.floyd
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      I am

    2. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      no

    3. Nate(U)dog(ie)
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      You can bench whoever you want if you think your other options will do better, don't mind anyone telling you you have to play X every game if you own them

  8. Dr. Rog
    • 14 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Who to bench:

    a) Raph (bha)
    b) Toney (EVE)
    c) Antonio (mci)

    1. Stranger Mings
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      C

    2. Jebiga
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Antonio nicely rested for city

  9. Tomas_brolin
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    A. Havertz to jota
    B. Havertz to ESR
    C. Havertz and sarr to jota and ESR -4

    Currently on c

  10. 1912 F.A Cup Winners
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Evening all!!! Which combo would you rather have from next gameweek after this one and for over the xmas period??!! …..

    A- Son and Antonio
    Or
    B- Kane/Ronaldo and ESR

    Cheers!!!!

    1. dbeck
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      A

  11. dbeck
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Already made my moves to get James in, is it worth a hit to turn jansson into Alonso?

    1. MaRooney 5
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Probably

  12. Boss Hogg
    • 14 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    a. Jota (-4)
    b. Keep Foden (Antonio first sub)

    1. Dr. Rog
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Ive gone A, just because the its 0.2 cost to wait another day probably.
      and I think Jota will score big.

  13. Stranger Mings
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Sorry if already answered but any more news on foden please?

  14. Ajax Hamsterdam
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    can i "survive" one more week without cancelo or would you do laporte to cancelo for a hit?

    1. FPL_Crisis
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      take the hit, what happens if laporte doesn't play. wingbacks is where it's at

    2. CRO KLOPP
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Long term great move

  15. FPL_Crisis
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Is Chilwell to James the recommended move here -4 (made early transfers for once, no regrets)

    I moved Dias > Cancelo, via Armstrong > Dennis to free up funds (0.6 itb)
    Then I can focus on getting in Jota vs Alonso as next priority...

    Guaita
    Trent Cancelo Chilwell*
    Salah Foden Raph ESR
    Kane Antonio
    Steer Dennis White Gilmour

    Strong enough bench to cover for Foden if he's out. Still debating whether to start Antonio this week

    1. Eh, just one more thing ...
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      James the only move.

      1. FPL_Crisis
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        cheers

    2. CRO KLOPP
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      I would do that for a hit

      1. FPL_Crisis
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        cheers, figured as much

    3. PascalCygan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Go for it

    4. Crunchie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Yeah i think i would

  16. CRO KLOPP
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    0 ft, 0.8 itb

    Ramsdale
    TAA James Cancelo Laporte
    Salah Son Raphina Mbuemo
    Jimenez Wilson
    (4.0 Antonio Livra Luiz)

    A) GTG
    B) Mbuemo to Gallagher(-4)
    C) something else

    1. waldo666
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      A

    2. PascalCygan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      A

    3. CRO KLOPP
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Cheers

    4. FPL Pillars
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      A

  17. Champions League Varane
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Thoughts on this? (have kane) thanks.

    son and livra/williams to James and jota -4?
    doing livra allows me to get alonso for christensen the following week?

  18. waldo666
    • 13 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Thoughts here? 2FT and 0.2 ITB

    Sanchez
    TAA James White
    Salah Mbeumo Raphinha Foden
    Ronaldo Antonio Armstrong

    (Steele Gilmour Livramento Chillwell*)

    A) Armstrong and Mbeumo to Dennis/King and Gallagher
    B) Armstrong and Chilwell to Dennis/King and Cancelo
    C) Something else

    1. PascalCygan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      B

    2. CRO KLOPP
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      B

    3. FPL_Crisis
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      B is the bigger upgrade for me since one is out for the season and Cancelo #1 priority
      I effectively did this move with Dennis to free up funds.
      Just be mindful Dennis could be called up for afcon so if funds not an issue then go King

      1. waldo666
        • 13 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Hadn't considered AFCON tbh, cheers. Have exact change atm for King.

        1. FPL_Crisis
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          I went Dennis for funds but then got reminded of afcon. still plenty of time to deal with it

  19. PascalCygan
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Done Chilwell to James, standard.

    Now wondering if I need to take a -4?

    1) Wait for Foden news and move him for Jota for -4 if he’s out
    2) Gray to Gallagher for -4

    0FT 1.2ITB
    Sanchez
    TAA Cancelo Rudiger James
    Salah Foden* Raphinha ESR
    Kane Toney

    Steele Gray* Livra Street

    Cheers!

    1. CRO KLOPP
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      1

      1. PascalCygan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Cheers. Sold Gallagher before his haul at City! But he can wait

    2. g40steve
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Wait for news on 1

      If fit 2 is easily paid back

      1. PascalCygan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Thanks

  20. The Wizard of Ozil
    • 14 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    A) Havertz -> Jota
    B) Havertz & White -> Cancelo & 6.6mid (-4) Trossard maybe

    If I go a then will most likely do White -> Alonso next week

    1. PascalCygan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      A

    2. FPL Pillars
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      A

  21. g40steve
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Took a -8 to get Trent & Gallagher as they were hammering me.
    Now Chilwell looks out ?

    A hold
    B balls out to James

    1. PascalCygan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      I want to say B

      1. g40steve
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Me too team is linked & finally coming together?

        No WC

        1. PascalCygan
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          Same, no WC has been an issue for a while now. Go for it

    2. FPL Pillars
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      B

    3. Nate(U)dog(ie)
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      I'd normally say no but honestly maybe just do it and write this week off as a long-term necessity

    4. g40steve
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Sitting at 600k how far will a -12 drop me?
      Last week was first green after 5 reds, Trent, Gallagher & James the biggest culprits?

      1. FPL_Crisis
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        I think on livefpl you can use what if scenario to assess this

        1. g40steve
          • 6 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          Cheers, after a couple of Arron 10 scotches gone for it wish me good luck 🙂

  22. Will J 256
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Which combo do you prefer?

    Pukki and R James or Toney and Alonso?

  23. McPollolocco
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    how long will chilwell be out.
    Is chilwell to alonso a good move ? Reece James is no longer available in my mini-league.

  24. FCSB
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Ramsdale
    TAA Cancelo James Chilwell
    Salah Son Foden Raphinha Gallagher
    Jimenez

    Foster Antonio Livramento Davis

    0FT 0itb

    1. Chilwell >> Alonso (-4)
    2. Hold (play Antonio)

    Thanks

    1. Crunchie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      I'd probably do it, when are you going to play Antonio next?

      1. FCSB
        • 8 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        well he would play next week v Brighton... hmmm tough call this week

    2. Champione
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Play Antonio imo

    3. waldo666
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      2

    4. FPL_Crisis
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      the merry-go-round continues with chelsea players!
      my james to chilwell move looks hideous now (unlucky) - i'm going to reverse it this week

      for your situation I'd be inclined to hold off and play Antonio. Do you think Alonso can play every match during this busy period?

      1. FCSB
        • 8 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        crazy isnt it... Chilly to Reece is a good move mate, lets hope Reece stays fit

        I think I will play Antonio this week, I'd need Alonso to get 6 and Antonio to blank to break even so puts a lot of pressure on the move when it could be done for free next week if needed

        do you have any other fires to put out? hoping Foden is fit

        1. FPL_Crisis
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          hoping Foden is fit too. Raph should be ok this weekend
          Got Gilmour White Dennis as decent cover. -4 is enough

          1. FCSB
            • 8 Years
            2 years, 4 months ago

            Have you taken a hit already?

            1. FPL_Crisis
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 13 Years
              2 years, 4 months ago

              I did Dias > Cancelo, via Armstrong > Dennis for free earlier in the week
              So now James would be -4

              1. FCSB
                • 8 Years
                2 years, 4 months ago

                Nice moves

  25. jimmyharte
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    If you were to sign one Chelsea defender?

    A. Alonso
    B. James

    1. FPL Pillars
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      B but try for both

    2. Crunchie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      B

    3. Champione
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      B

    4. FPL_Crisis
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      B must have
      A nice to have

  26. Champione
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Best striker under 8.5 to bring in?

    1. SmasherLagru
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Jimi

    2. FPL_Crisis
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Jimmy Wilson Watkins all decent but sketchy fixtures

  27. DA Minnion (Former great)
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Don't think I could go back to Lamptey after last season. What a fiasco.

    1. Champione
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Yeah, can’t see him starting 3-4 games in a row

  28. Danstoke82
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Evening all, this move yay or nay? (Apologies it’s prob a common question this evening)

    Foden > Jota 1FT

    Next GW I’m looking at ESR > Bernardo for City attack

    1. Champione
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Decent move imo. Prefer Jota over Bernardo?

      1. Danstoke82
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        For this GW I think so. Jota v Southampton could be gold

  29. Champione
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    A) ESR + Gallagher + Ronaldo
    B) Foden + Jota/Bernardo + Jimenez

    1. waldo666
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      A, golden run for Ronnie coming up soon.

  30. jimmyharte
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    A. Gallagher
    B. Jota

    Cheers

    1. Pompel
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      B