Salah ‘perma-captain’ in FPL – or opportunities to look elsewhere?

With Mohamed Salah (£12.7m) off representing Egypt at the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON), captaincy in Fantasy Premier League (FPL) these past couple of weeks has actually felt quite exciting again.

Okay, maybe not so much for those who handed Emmanuel Dennis (£6.2m) the armband in Double Gameweek 23, but generally, being able to at least consider the likes of Kevin De Bruyne (£12.2m) and Bruno Fernandes (£11.7m) has been welcome.

Now, as focus turns to Gameweek 24, Salah is back on the agenda again, with the Egyptian expected to be available for Liverpool’s home match against Leicester City.

For some, that will be a relief, but for others, they may be on the lookout for a carefully chosen opportunity to bet against FPL’s top-scoring player, which we’ll explore below.

Firstly, let’s have a look at Liverpool’s forthcoming fixtures, before then zoning in and assessing each Gameweek individually.

GAMEWEEK 24

Liverpool’s Anfield encounter against Leicester City in Gameweek 24 looks ideal to hand Salah the captaincy, despite his struggles in the reverse fixture, when he missed a penalty and ended the match on zero points.

The Foxes have struggled defensively all season, conceding 37 goals across their 20 Premier League matches, whilst their 36.4 expected goals conceded (xGC) tally is the worst in the division bar Newcastle United and Norwich City.

However, if Egypt are to reach the last four at AFCON, and Jurgen Klopp were to hint at an extended rest for his star man, we may be forced to look elsewhere. Admittedly, that looks unlikely right now – Ivory Coast are the bookies’ favourites to progress from Wednesday’s round-of-16 meeting – but at this stage, we can’t completely rule it out.

EGYPT AFCON/FPL TIMELINE:

• Jan 26 – Ivory Coast v Egypt (round-of-16)
• Jan 30 – AFCON quarter-finals
• Feb 3 – AFCON semi-finals
• Feb 6 – AFCON final/third-place play-off
• Feb 10 – Liverpool v Leicester City (Gameweek 24)

Of the other options available, Manchester City’s home tie against Brentford looks particularly appealing, given that Thomas Frank’s side have conceded 19 goals across their last seven away fixtures, raising the appeal of Kevin De Bruyne and Phil Foden (£8.0m).

However, there are others, with Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur taking on Burnley and Southampton respectively, whilst Salah’s team-mates Diogo Jota (£8.4m) and Trent Alexander-Arnold (£8.5m) would also surely be in the captaincy conversation.

GAMEWEEK 24 – KEY FIXTURES TO TARGET FOR CAPTAINCY:

• Burnley v Manchester United
• Liverpool v Leicester City
• Manchester City v Brentford                
• Tottenham Hotspur v Southampton
• West Ham United v Watford

DOUBLE GAMEWEEK 25/26?

Gameweeks 25 and 26, at least for now, both look like prime examples of when not to bet against Salah for captaincy, with Liverpool facing appealing ties against Burnley (a) and Norwich City (h).

Whilst we hardly need any further encouragement, it’s worth noting that both sides, plus Leicester City, in fact, rank in the bottom three for chances conceded from their left flank across the 2021/22 campaign.

Above: Liverpool’s next three opponents all rank in the bottom three for chances conceded from their left-flank in 2021/22

However, in Ralf Rangnick’s Friday press conference, he hinted at a Double Gameweek 25 for Manchester United, which would see the Red Devils’ handed back-to-back home matches against Southampton and Brighton and Hove Albion.

“On top of my list is how can we win the game against West Ham, then after the international break, the upcoming games: in the cup against Middlesbrough, Burnley, playing Southampton at home, playing Brighton at home.” – Ralf Rangnick

Meanwhile, there is also speculation building about a possible Tottenham Hotspur double-header the following week, in Gameweek 26, which could boost the appeal of Son Heung-min (£10.6m) and Harry Kane (£12.3m), even if one of those matches is against Manchester City.

We should point out that Salah could even have a double himself, but if not, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if he outscored those playing twice, as highlighted by his individual Gameweek scores throughout the season (see below).

However, the lure of a Double Gameweek player is always there, especially when there are premium options available rather than those from teams rooted to the foot of the table.

Above: Salah’s FPL points 2021/22

GAMEWEEK 27

Due to Liverpool’s involvement in the EFL Cup final, they are currently due to blank in Gameweek 27, along with Arsenal, Chelsea and Leicester City.

Because of that, we are left with just eight matches, at least for now, which are detailed below, and ranked according to ease of fixture.

Already, this looks like quite an exciting week, with Manchester United up against Watford at Old Trafford and Tottenham Hotspur away at Leeds United, whilst Man City’s Goodison Park trip is also appealing.

GAMEWEEK 27 – KEY FIXTURES TO TARGET FOR CAPTAINCY:

• Everton v Manchester City
• Leeds United v Tottenham Hotspur
• Manchester United v Watford

FINAL THOUGHTS

Finding a route back to Salah will of course be a priority for most FPL managers during the winter break, and rightly so, providing he is fit and available for Gameweek 24.

Once installed, he will probably be the standout captaincy option most weeks, but that shouldn’t necessarily stop us from exploring other options, and there will be appealing alternatives presented to us when further Double Gameweeks are announced.

For example, if Double Gameweeks 25/26 come to fruition for Man Utd and Spurs, then we could realistically be looking at a captaincy run that looks something like this, which is worth bearing in mind when looking at your own squad structure and future transfers.

• Gameweek 24: Salah (LEI)
• Gameweek 25: Ronaldo/Fernandes (DGW)
• Gameweek 26: Son/Kane (DGW)
• Gameweek 27: Ronaldo/Fernandes (WAT) or Son/Kane (lee)

All we can hope for now is that the picture will become clearer prior to the next deadline, and then we can really start planning.