The pros and cons of a Gameweek 24 Wildcard in FPL

This is really good work. I think the problem with the value equation is that the best value team is never going to be the highest scoring team. I do, however, like the way that you have then gone about the upgrades, as you say, the problem with this analysis it's based on past results, picking the right selection going forwards is the hard part, as is picking the right 'big at the back' to start. Had you gone big at the back in gw1 with VVD, Dias, Azpi and Maguire you would be far less happy.

I think it's an interesting read to be honest.

I think (and I don't know how this would be factored in) form also plays a part, for example VVD has scored well over the season but Robertson is the form player right now, I guess where you use Value as your baseline you can then layer it with other factors in your decision making in upgrading.

Whilst I get your and Camzy's take on being unflexible the interesting aspect of this is that it ended up with 2 x City defenders and 2 x Liverpool defenders, part of the upside is that Cancelo/TAA are pointless in the sense, everyone has them so you have no upside for team performances. So let's assume you've gone for 4 defenders, the fifth slot is really then dependent on value again.

Assuming the above, if you were to go Digne, does Digne score more points than a midfielder if you were to downgrade him to a 4.3-4.5 and using that extra 0.5 elsewhere? It's difficult to say.

The other aspect of this in terms of value is that it's not an indicator of total points, if the price of a player is lets say 5, compared to an 8 and the value score is 1 or 2 lower, the 8 is actually worth it in total points.

I love the effort and brings a different thought process, you layered the upgraded players quite nicely so I think there is merit to this.

Brilliant stuff, also like that it fits in with my back 4 WC side
You make a good point that maybe 5 starting defenders are too inflexible & 3 at the back might not mean optimum utilization
4 at the back it is

Really interesting stuff and definitely helps to put some priorities into perspective.

What I think can be taken away from this is where the value lies we've maybe been ignoring (such as Wolves defence) and team structure (having 4th & 5th defenders as good bench options is ideal).

A lot of similarities in that team compared to the template anyway so decision making does factor a lot of this in, but people are more forward looking in terms of fixtures and other future expectations.

All in all I'd probably lean towards a Broja 2nd striker, maximising opportunities in midfield and having a cheap Wolves defender or 2 to fill in 4th/5th defender spot

I posted on Camzy's post that rotating pairs could match Robertson over the rest of the season.

Robertson and fodder – LEI – bur – NOR – BLANK – WHU – bha – MUN – WAT – mci – avl – EVE – new – TOT – sou – WOL (TBC – LEE – ars)

White/Davies – SOU – WOL – BRE – lee – EVE/wat – LEI – WHU – NEW – BRI – BRI – bre – LEI – LEE – BUR – EVE/nor (TBC – bur – bha – ARS – LIV – WOL – tot – che) + 2.5M in bank and no Europe to worry about rotation/additional injury risk.

You could argue the fodder player covers the blank, but even against city away I would still play Robertson over a fodder, so I think the fodder is a money sink.

Quality work here.

I really like it on FFS when it's slow and there's time for more in-depth analysis of the game itself and to figure out optimal strategies.

The refutation here is that you don't set and forget your FPL team. Attackers are naturally more flighty than defenders because of minutes played and because returns have a greater spread. Hence why using transfers on attackers is preferred. They get bigger scores when they score (thanks bonus points) but are worse value when they blank for 2 points.

Using your example, if you had gone Benrahma for the first 5 games and then switched to Bowen, you would have gotten a 150 point player. Even if you didn't go Bowen, and went Raphinha instead, the cumulative points value is higher.

Transfers make it so that you can swap attackers in and out for their run of good games for higher raw points output.

I understand the value argument for defenders, but that also relies on you identifying the right defenders. How many people would have picked Laporte this season back in GW13? Precious few considering the form of Chelsea wingbacks. Having flexible price points allow you to move your attackers better which means you have more opportunities to capitalize on form/fixture swings.

This season has been amazing for premium defenders but last season was the complete opposite. TAA was one of the worst picks in the game for a while and the best defense was like Zouma, Saiss etc after 15 weeks iirc. And we've mostly adapted to that. 4 at the back has become common and everyone now owns TAA and Cancelo. There is a balance to be found though and when planning we have to look ahead not behind. DGWs now for these budget defenders will likely make them even better value especially since the premium defenders come from select teams (Liverpool and City really) so the circumstances are different than in the first 20 weeks of the season or so.

Agrees with the articles 'Hedge' did a while back. Good stuff.

This and Camzy's have both been excellent pieces. Kudos to you both.

Being at work I haven't had time to do any detailed analysis, but wanted to ask whether you've considered any circular logic in your reasoning. You come to the conclusion that the best way to maximise value is to upgrade defenders, but your methodology to reach that conclusion involved upgrading defenders first, before upgrading midfielders or forwards. For example, you specifically mentioned no Jota because of already reaching 3 Liverpool, but that's because you chose to upgrade Coady to VVD before looking at the midfield options. Like I said earlier I haven't done the maths but by your calculations, Coady to VVD is +6ppm and ESR to Mount is +7.6ppm, yet Jota has more points than Mount so surely the optimal move is to include Jota instead of Mount and remove VVD. Depending on who then comes in to replace Coady, if anyone, that could have implications for your conclusion.

Nice work on VORP although it's based on this season alone of course.

A broader way to look at the VORP question is to divide your budget into 67.5m compulsory spend and 32.5m discretionary spend (based on the starting budget - the discretionary spend should have increased to around 36m by now).

When you analyse that you will see that the points per £1m you need from the discretionary spend are much higher than you can expect from your compulsory spend. With the compulsory portion you will be lucky to achieve better than 33 points per GW (0.5 points per 1m per GW at best). So if you are aiming for an average 66 points per GW then that leaves 33 points to find.

OK, let's say 7 of those points can come from captaincy. That leaves your 32.5m discretionary spend needing to produce 26 points per GW (0.8 ppm pGW).

That rough calculation (it's just a ballpark) allows you to set points targets for all players in your squad that you don't intend to use as captains. Robertson needs to produce 4.35 ppGW to hit par, more or less. Jota would be 5.37 ppGW. Son would be an almost impossible 7.13 ppGW (not impossible over a short period but to produce that over 38 games would be way ahead of even his best previous season).

That's where this leads to the captaincy calculation because captains have to be evaluated differently - you are doubling their points one week in two or one week in three (or even every week if you are the perma-captain type). So someone like Son can be valid if you intend to captain them on occasion (or for short periods where everything is in their favour - fixtures, form, team momentum and the rest) but is probably too expensive otherwise under normal circumstances (yes, there are caveats but if I write them all this will take forever). 😆

Anyways, long story short... If you want reliable value assessed in terms of VORP points per £1m then you prioritise the defence with your discretionary spend (after you have your captain/s sorted out). You are right to say this and structurally it has always been the case. But it's also a matter of hitting sweet spots and using players that are capable of exceeding their targets in the best combination you can - and that's not always the same combination. 🙂

Excellent analysis. You could extend it further to points per game per million to allow for the fact that some players have missed games. A judgement call would have to be made to how injury prone a player is though.

The Hot Topics today have been outstanding and most informative. Thanks to all who have contributed...

Anti-climatic announcement.

Happy Sanchez and Cucurella owner. Surely they can improve and get more than 4 and 5 points this time.

And the crowd goes mild!

https://images.app.goo.gl/BrZEM5BTZfBrJHw39

Is it a case or don’t buy don’t sell players from Brighton United?
Guess some will delay Salah to get in someone like Bruno

Does anyone know when other re arranged fixtures will be announced