Villa, Spurs or Man City players? My FPL transfer and Free Hit dilemmas

It’s the first time in a while that I’m sitting conflicted on a Friday in terms of where to take my Fantasy Premier League (FPL) team. I’m hoping that the next 24 hours gives me some inspiration in terms of where to move ahead because there are just so many options and directions in which one can go right now. All of it is team dependent and at the time of writing, I could literally Free Hit in Gameweek 36 (I own 13 Double Gameweekers but that includes only one Manchester City asset and three Chelsea players), Gameweek 37 (I own two Everton players) or Gameweek 38 (in case I add Aston Villa players this week).

The big thing in my head is that despite chip planning, I’ve seen so many FPL managers ignore Gameweek 35. Gameweek 35 is what we’re looking at first and foremost. There are some great fixtures to target this weekend and you shouldn’t be afraid of committing to your moves for the upcoming Gameweek instead of waiting and watching and getting the ‘ideal’ players for the imminent big double.

Each Gameweek is 25% of your remaining season now (33% if you have a Free Hit left), so don’t be afraid to go haul chasing before every deadline. Look for ‘brace potential’ in all your transfers. Now is not the time to make goalkeeper transfers or budget pick moves. Now is the time to chase potential monster hauls and see where that takes you.

This article is going to be a little bit of a free ramble, so off we go…

TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR

Firstly, I’ve seen some murmurings of people avoiding Tottenham Hotspur assets in Gameweek 36 because they have two tough games. In my opinion, both the premium Spurs options are really good picks in Gameweek 36 (and for literally every week until the end of the season) because you’re guaranteed minutes – and if the Lilywhites do score, the points are as predictable as they come for premium assets, unlike those from Manchester City.

I also think that the games against Liverpool and Arsenal are not bad for a team like Spurs, whose most potent weapon is to counter-attack. So yes, Spurs aren’t exactly reliable but still a good bet to make even in Gameweek 36 despite the fixtures. The reliability of minutes is a big factor and as we’ve seen with them, they don’t need many chances to haul. Even if they score two or three goals over Double Gameweek 36, the involvement percentage is very high for Harry Kane (£12.5m) and Son Heung-min (£11.0m).

ASTON VILLA

Thinking of hauls, I do think there are some potential big scores for the chasing in Gameweek 36. Just like unreliable Spurs, I’m going to talk about the inconsistent Aston Villa. Yes, they haven’t pulled up any trees of late but because of the quality of players they have, I am not surprised that even statistically, they are a little bit of a flat-track bully. If you do want to take a leap of faith there, I’m not against it at all.

There is immediate haul potential given that Norwich have been top of the expected goals conceded (xGC) charts whether you look at data for last six matches (literally at any point in 2021/22) or for the season itself. I do believe in strong fixtures being important and Aston Villa have some great matches in Gameweeks 35 and 37 and are a good buy this week whether or not you’re Free Hitting in Gameweek 36. You do need to be careful about how many you get, though, and keep an eye on Gameweek 38, since they travel to the Etihad on the final day.

There’s one stat from our own Stevie that he cited in his excellent Eye Test article which caught my, well, eye. With regards to Phillipe Coutinho (£7.0m), his penalty box touch count pretty much doubles per game when he faces the lower-table sides, while his rate of shots in the box almost trebles.

MANCHESTER CITY

Another team I want to talk about targeting is Manchester City. Yes, relatively speaking, Gameweek 35 opponents Leeds United have tightened up a bit but the gulf in quality is still huge and Jesse Marsch’s side haven’t faced anything of the quality that City pose yet. Given that the reigning champions double in Gameweek 36, now would be a good time to invest in their assets.

Luke, who has done a really good job of predicting Manchester City starting XIs, did a great 25-minute pod on City assets for the rest of the season and I agree with his list of four assets that you want to bring in for now until the end of the campaign.

TEAM PLANS

Now I don’t usually talk about my team but the direction in terms of where I use my pending Free Hit chip comes down to whether I invest in Spurs, Aston Villa or Manchester City assets this week. For example, I’ll not Free Hit in Gameweek 37 if I buy Spurs and Villa players before Saturday’s deadline, so it comes down to what I think the stronger fixtures are around these options.

The three teams to target this week are definitely the three I mentioned in this paragraph. What I’m wrestling with is that I really like the idea of Raheem Sterling (£10.5m) as a captaincy option this week given that he was rested in the first tie against Real Madrid but it is the riskier route for me, given his unreliability for the rest of the season. I am also wondering if I’m more inclined towards this move because of my muscle memory with Marcelo Bielsa’s Leeds United but irrespective of that, there is a big gulf in quality between both the teams. Jesse Marsch’s interview where he says he’ll “go for it” against Manchester City is also enticing me and there is definite haul potential there. I could just go Kevin De Bruyne (£11.9m) instead and rule out a Free Hit in Gameweek 36 but I’m not quite as confident that he’s a captaincy option this week as Pep Guardiola has mentioned that he’s been playing with niggles and I expect his minutes to be managed.

The other route at the moment involves Harry Kane (£12.5m) and Phillipe Coutinho (£7.0m) and means that I definitely don’t Free Hit in Gameweek 37 as I will own two Everton players, three Liverpool assets, two Spurs picks and Coutinho, which is a strong base for that round of fixtures.

I’m still open to Free Hitting in Gameweek 38 if I go down this path. There is a muscle memory attached here in my head where I just see Kane as someone who always finishes seasons strongly but I do wonder if Son is a monster haul away from getting penalties for the end of the campaign in an attempt to win the Golden Boot. It eventually comes down to whether I prefer Manchester City or Spurs assets in Gameweek 35 and Gameweek 38.

I’ve attached my current team (top) and my team for Gameweek 36 (middle) and Gameweek 37 (bottom) above so that you can see where my dilemma arises. Who knows, while I’m tinkering later tonight, another route may open up. As things stand, I’m looking to sell my Chelsea attackers for either Spurs, Villa or Manchester City assets.

Good luck this week and do check out our episode of The FPL Wire (recorded on Friday morning) where I discuss the run-in with my fellow Pro Pundit, Zophar.

THE COMPLETE GUIDE TO GAMEWEEK 37

INJURY AND TEAM NEWS
SCOUT PICKS
DIFFERENTIALS
CAPTAINCY DISCUSSION
TEAM REVEALS
EXPERT OPINION
RMT/POINTS PROJECTIONS
TOP 10K ANALYSIS
VIDEO CONTENT