Pro Pundits

From safe to high-risk: Four Free Hit drafts for FPL Gameweek 37

Pras and Sonaldo the latest additions to the FFScout team

What a nice feeling this is, to have a deadline almost 48 hours after the press conferences. Time to relax and reflect. This is, of course, unless you are on a Free Hit. For those of us using this chip, we all have another 48 hours to overthink things!

For my final article this season, I’ll share some thoughts on Free Hit drafts heading into the deadline at 10.30am BST on Sunday. More specifically, I want to talk about what options we have to calibrate the risk profile of the Free Hit, taking into account your rank goals or mini-league state. I’ll go from the straight bat, forward defensive to the ‘six in the stands’ draft. Remember though, the riskier your shot, the higher the likelihood of getting out. 

Template locks

With good reason, I see seven players locked in most Free Hit teams. These are:

  • Jordan Pickford 
  • Matty Cash, Lucas Digne 
  • Mohamed Salah, Son Heung-min 
  • Richarlison, Danny Ings

One could argue that Philippe Coutinho or Ollie Watkins could make it, instead of say, Digne, if they were nailed to start both games. But with Steven Gerrard’s comments yesterday on Watkins’ availability for the Crystal Palace game, it reduces the appeal for both players on a Free Hit: Watkins for obvious reasons but I say Coutinho as well because if Watkins does indeed return against Burnley, there is a risk Villa play two up top with Emiliano Buendia in behind. I’m not suggesting this will happen, I’m just saying it’s a risk. I should also add that for those not on a Free Hit, both Coutinho and Watkins are easy holds. Both could play 120 mins+, which may be enough.

The above seven take up about £61m of the budget. Add another £16.6m for the four bench spots and we have a total £77.6m spend. How can we calibrate risk for the remaining £25-27m?

The safe draft

Using the remainder of the budget to add the two highest owned defenders and a high owned forward is the safest Free Hit draft in my view. There is limited upside but also very limited downside. I have essentially used up the remaining budget on Harry Kane, Jooa Cancelo and Trent Alexander-Arnold (or Andrew Robertson, for those with a low team value).

With this team, I own four of the five most owned players in the top 10k. The missing one is Bukayo Saka, who you can cautiously back against given the tougher fixture on paper away to Newcastle. 

A word on Kane v Kevin De Bruyne. Despite the Belgian’s unreal performance versus Wolves in midweek, I am backing Kane. I think with Gabriel Jesus and Riyad Mahrez likely coming back into the fold, it will change De Bruyne’s role back to the assister. He may do splendidly there as well but when you also add the fact that West Ham are playing their final home game, I expect the Hammers to put in a disciplined performance and stay competitive till the end.

Kane on the other hand will be on a high after the strong outing in the north London derby. Spurs can smell fourth place, and this should mean a strong performance at home to Burnley to keep the pressure up on Arsenal, who themselves have a tough away game at St James’ Park.

The bold draft

In the next version, let’s take away the 86% owned (in the top 10k) City defender, Joao Cancelo. This draft turns him into Diogo Jota or Luis Diaz depending on whoever gets fewer minutes in the FA Cup final on Saturday. To fund this, it also removes Kane or De Bruyne to a 0.27%-owned Jamie Vardy, who doubles vs Watford and Chelsea. If somehow we get news pre-deadline that Vardy starts the Watford game, it may be worth going there.

This gives the draft more upside, both from an effective ownership perspective but also in the fact that it attacks the Southampton fixture that Liverpool may use to make a final push to close the goal difference on Man City.

The very bold draft

The next draft removes another 86% owned (in top 10k) defender in Alexander-Arnold and upgrades Jota to De Bruyne. Is it high risk? Yes? Could it pay off? Of course.

While this team looks really good on paper, I do worry about only having one player in a well-owned Liverpool team against a Southampton side that have looked dire recently. When you add that “risk” to also not owning Cancelo and Kane, two popular players in non-Free Hit drafts, you are indeed in very high-risk/high-reward territory.

The ‘YOLO’ draft

Want to throw everything into this Gameweek? Don’t care if you lose 20-50k in rank, as long as you can tell the grandkids you tried? Well, then sell Mohamed Salah for Sadio Mane. The money saved can go into upgrading Vardy back to Kane, so you’ve got four big-hitters from Liverpool, City and Spurs all in one draft. For those that can’t get to this because of team value, can downgrade Vitalli Mykolenko or Cash to the centre-backs from those teams eg. Mason Holgate and Tyrone Mings.

There are, of course, many other variants to the Free Hit in Gameweek 37. One can add James Maddison, Anthony Gordon and Coutinho and/or change the formation. I stuck to the paths that I have been considering the most. It’s fair to say that I am currently looking at variants #1 and #2, but that is because I am currently ranked at 9.5k, which is close to my end-of-season goal. 

Lots may counter this piece and say, you should simply pick the team that scores the most points. To them I say, I think all these teams score similar points. What differentiates them is the volatility in rank change if things work out better or worse than the expectation.

Good luck whatever path you choose. We’re nearly there, folks!

2,182 Comments Post a Comment
  1. DA Minnion (Former great)
    • 11 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Easiest transfer of the season incoming.

    1. jason_ni
      • 8 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Mo to Coutinho

  2. jason_ni
    • 8 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    So no Mo on my fh then, had been planning on doing it anyways, but likely to be a lot more now!

    1. el polako
      • 6 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Which LFC players you're going for ?

      1. jason_ni
        • 8 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Robbo and diaz before this kicked off, with tsimikas on bench in case of robbo no show.

  3. Mozumbus
    • 2 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Delph, flagged, on the bench. Tsmiskas and Amartey warms rest of the bench.

    Should I bother replacing Delph with a playing MF within 4.5 by doing Anderson > Clyne. Yes or No?

    On FH.
    Thanks

  4. Scots Gooner
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Salah to Son (c) for everyone then

    1. _Gunner
      • 9 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      This

    2. NABIL - FPL otai
      • 11 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Ings still

    3. Royal5
      • 12 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Not a dgw'er?

    4. BeaversWithAttitude
      • 5 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Son will be having Golden Boot dreams tonight!

  5. SAY MY NAME
    • 6 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    i was 50/50 on FH gw37 or gw38, with Salah going off reckon i'll pull the trigger

  6. dshv
    • 6 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Fh 37

    Kane for salah!!!!

    1. OptimusBlack
      • 10 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Yes

  7. brianutd-why always we? 20
    • 12 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Season over for Mo

  8. NABIL - FPL otai
    • 11 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Noooo my Salah Jota double up on FH

    1. BeaversWithAttitude
      • 5 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      At least it was free.

  9. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
    • 13 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Welcome Diaz to my team

    1. Royal5
      • 12 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Nothing to play for

      1. Make Arrows Green Again
        • 7 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        He doesn't seem the type. Gives 100% every game

        1. Camino Aleatorio
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          1 year, 10 months ago

          Correct, different players at LFC. They are not Manchester United guys that quit months ago.

      2. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
        • 13 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Maybe but Southampton are trash

        Id love to triple up on Liverpool attack this week

      3. jason_ni
        • 8 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        His place in the team for the cl final.

        Pretty big incentive.

  10. Sailboats
    • 8 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Salah > Kane for GW 37 then

    1. jason_ni
      • 8 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Ones a mid, the other is a fade!

      1. jason_ni
        • 8 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Fwd even!

  11. RAFA THE GAFFA
    • 7 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    What happened to Pulisic by the way? Was such a talent

    1. jason_ni
      • 8 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Guessing injuries.

      Can only keep getting put out for months on end before it will start to really have an impact.

      Pretty concerned for reece james long term career with his record to date.

    2. Rotation's Alter Ego
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 12 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Injuries, originally less favoured under Tuchel, loss of confidence. Still a huge talent, just haven't seen him tear a game up really since Lampard

    3. el polako
      • 6 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Chelsea is a team which suffocated many talents...
      Lukaku, KDB, Werner, Salah - only to mention few.

    4. NorCal Villan
      • 2 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Made of glass.

  12. Top Lad Dakes.
    • 7 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Everyone doing Salah to either Son or KDB then

    1. el polako
      • 6 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      I'm on FH so entertaining Mane thought.

  13. Maddamotha
    • 7 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    No mo mo

  14. fusen
    • 12 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    That makes not including Salah in the free hit easier

  15. Espanyolie
    • 3 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Would be a nightmare for him after the Ramos move on him to again miss an UCL final due to injury

    1. LE CHARO
      • 4 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      He played in the 2019 final at least so it's not that bad

  16. Oscar Slater
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Salah > McGinn. Done.

    1. Shineonme
      • 7 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      I've juts done Salah > saka

  17. Silecro
    • 6 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Was going to sell him for Son anyway

  18. RAFA THE GAFFA
    • 7 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    FH draft 210 incoming

  19. TomSaints
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Ah damn it.

  20. brianutd-why always we? 20
    • 12 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    One of the scouts gave the excellent Salah call a month ago to sell

  21. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
    • 10 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Gutted Son owner

    1. dabber7
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Yep gutted too, he was already going to be my captain.

  22. Well you know, Triffic
    • 13 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Who is the best Pool attacker to have now?

    Mane
    Diaz
    Jota
    ?

    1. Flynny
      • 9 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Mane?

    2. OptimusBlack
      • 10 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Diaz ?

    3. sulldaddy
      • 13 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Diaz

  23. Hazz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    So glad I waited before making transfers.

  24. Hits from the Bong
    • 5 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Hmm Diaz, Mane or Jota the best FH option now? Or forget Liverpool attack completely?

    1. Shineonme
      • 7 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      After this gw liverpool can't win the league. I expect man city to win their last two games easily

  25. iL PiStOlErO
    • 4 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Alrigthy then.

  26. MIGHTY JOE
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Oufffff.. What to do with all the free money on FH

    1. Well you know, Triffic
      • 13 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Bitcoin

      1. MIGHTY JOE
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Thats clever!
        Think I’ll rather go for Salah/Mateta -> Luis Diaz/Vardy

  27. MrJobby
    • 2 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    That ends my Salah to Son debate this week

  28. BUZZBOMB
    • 9 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    There goes my FH 4 premiums ML differential then.

  29. Royal5
    • 12 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Why is the camera angle so bad in this game?

    1. el polako
      • 6 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Needs to be low as British lenses are not used to the sun.

  30. TomSaints
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Selling Salah in Jan was the answer. Well done those who were bold

    1. el polako
      • 6 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Kojak did well.

    2. HTL
      • 5 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Still think it was a combination of luck and planning. Ditching him on FH33 proved painful