Pro Pundits

From safe to high-risk: Four Free Hit drafts for FPL Gameweek 37

Pras and Sonaldo the latest additions to the FFScout team

What a nice feeling this is, to have a deadline almost 48 hours after the press conferences. Time to relax and reflect. This is, of course, unless you are on a Free Hit. For those of us using this chip, we all have another 48 hours to overthink things!

For my final article this season, I’ll share some thoughts on Free Hit drafts heading into the deadline at 10.30am BST on Sunday. More specifically, I want to talk about what options we have to calibrate the risk profile of the Free Hit, taking into account your rank goals or mini-league state. I’ll go from the straight bat, forward defensive to the ‘six in the stands’ draft. Remember though, the riskier your shot, the higher the likelihood of getting out. 

Template locks

With good reason, I see seven players locked in most Free Hit teams. These are:

  • Jordan Pickford 
  • Matty Cash, Lucas Digne 
  • Mohamed Salah, Son Heung-min 
  • Richarlison, Danny Ings

One could argue that Philippe Coutinho or Ollie Watkins could make it, instead of say, Digne, if they were nailed to start both games. But with Steven Gerrard’s comments yesterday on Watkins’ availability for the Crystal Palace game, it reduces the appeal for both players on a Free Hit: Watkins for obvious reasons but I say Coutinho as well because if Watkins does indeed return against Burnley, there is a risk Villa play two up top with Emiliano Buendia in behind. I’m not suggesting this will happen, I’m just saying it’s a risk. I should also add that for those not on a Free Hit, both Coutinho and Watkins are easy holds. Both could play 120 mins+, which may be enough.

The above seven take up about £61m of the budget. Add another £16.6m for the four bench spots and we have a total £77.6m spend. How can we calibrate risk for the remaining £25-27m?

The safe draft

Using the remainder of the budget to add the two highest owned defenders and a high owned forward is the safest Free Hit draft in my view. There is limited upside but also very limited downside. I have essentially used up the remaining budget on Harry Kane, Jooa Cancelo and Trent Alexander-Arnold (or Andrew Robertson, for those with a low team value).

With this team, I own four of the five most owned players in the top 10k. The missing one is Bukayo Saka, who you can cautiously back against given the tougher fixture on paper away to Newcastle. 

A word on Kane v Kevin De Bruyne. Despite the Belgian’s unreal performance versus Wolves in midweek, I am backing Kane. I think with Gabriel Jesus and Riyad Mahrez likely coming back into the fold, it will change De Bruyne’s role back to the assister. He may do splendidly there as well but when you also add the fact that West Ham are playing their final home game, I expect the Hammers to put in a disciplined performance and stay competitive till the end.

Kane on the other hand will be on a high after the strong outing in the north London derby. Spurs can smell fourth place, and this should mean a strong performance at home to Burnley to keep the pressure up on Arsenal, who themselves have a tough away game at St James’ Park.

The bold draft

In the next version, let’s take away the 86% owned (in the top 10k) City defender, Joao Cancelo. This draft turns him into Diogo Jota or Luis Diaz depending on whoever gets fewer minutes in the FA Cup final on Saturday. To fund this, it also removes Kane or De Bruyne to a 0.27%-owned Jamie Vardy, who doubles vs Watford and Chelsea. If somehow we get news pre-deadline that Vardy starts the Watford game, it may be worth going there.

This gives the draft more upside, both from an effective ownership perspective but also in the fact that it attacks the Southampton fixture that Liverpool may use to make a final push to close the goal difference on Man City.

The very bold draft

The next draft removes another 86% owned (in top 10k) defender in Alexander-Arnold and upgrades Jota to De Bruyne. Is it high risk? Yes? Could it pay off? Of course.

While this team looks really good on paper, I do worry about only having one player in a well-owned Liverpool team against a Southampton side that have looked dire recently. When you add that “risk” to also not owning Cancelo and Kane, two popular players in non-Free Hit drafts, you are indeed in very high-risk/high-reward territory.

The ‘YOLO’ draft

Want to throw everything into this Gameweek? Don’t care if you lose 20-50k in rank, as long as you can tell the grandkids you tried? Well, then sell Mohamed Salah for Sadio Mane. The money saved can go into upgrading Vardy back to Kane, so you’ve got four big-hitters from Liverpool, City and Spurs all in one draft. For those that can’t get to this because of team value, can downgrade Vitalli Mykolenko or Cash to the centre-backs from those teams eg. Mason Holgate and Tyrone Mings.

There are, of course, many other variants to the Free Hit in Gameweek 37. One can add James Maddison, Anthony Gordon and Coutinho and/or change the formation. I stuck to the paths that I have been considering the most. It’s fair to say that I am currently looking at variants #1 and #2, but that is because I am currently ranked at 9.5k, which is close to my end-of-season goal. 

Lots may counter this piece and say, you should simply pick the team that scores the most points. To them I say, I think all these teams score similar points. What differentiates them is the volatility in rank change if things work out better or worse than the expectation.

Good luck whatever path you choose. We’re nearly there, folks!

2,182 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Milk, 1 Šuker
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Keeping KDB then! Allows me to go for a differential in Jamie Vardy!

  2. King Carlos
    • 8 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    What happened to Salah?? Will he play in gw 37?

    1. Espanyolie
      • 3 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Not a chance

    2. adstomko
      • 7 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      A Parisian streaker ran on to the pitch and arm-locked him to the ground. The man's name is allegedly Sergio Ramos.

      1. Baps hunter
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        And Ramos didn't get even yellow, when he should have been sent off. Didn't he cause another injury also.

      2. Camino Aleatorio
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        That was a NFL quality QB sack.

        Seriously though, American 10 year old football players would have sprang back up - immediate. Salah was down for months for a kiddie injury

    3. King Carlos
      • 8 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Groin injury apparently

    4. Shineonme
      • 7 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Not a chance. He won't even play the last game of the season in the league

  3. adstomko
    • 7 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Weghorst to Richarlison worth it?

  4. Ivan Toney Soprano
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Salah > KDB
    Or
    Salah and weghorse > Kane and diaz for -4

    Already have Son, no man city mids

    1. Bucket Man
      • 5 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      I’d go KDB

  5. OptimusBlack
    • 10 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    best 3 strikers for just GW 37

    A- Kane
    B- Vardy
    C- Ings
    D- Richa

    1. el polako
      • 6 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Not Vardy

      1. Dynamic Duos
        • 10 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        What are you on about?

        1. el polako
          • 6 Years
          1 year, 10 months ago

          Nothing, Vardy is shite laying for shite team and prone to trolling.
          He scored last gw people will flock to him and he will get 3 or 4 pointer.

          You can bookmark it.

          1. Baps hunter
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            1 year, 10 months ago

            Brace against Norwich proves nothing, I agree. But Vardy is also streaky player and class is permanent.

      2. jonnybhoy
        • 11 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Top for predicted pts

        1. NorCal Villan
          • 2 Years
          1 year, 10 months ago

          Sincere question: how accurate is predicted points?

        2. @persecuted_by_mods
            1 year, 10 months ago

            Won't even play twice surely

      3. Dynamic Duos
        • 10 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        BCD

      4. Sailboats
        • 8 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        ACD

      5. Krafty Werks
        • 9 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        BCD

    2. BantasyFootball
      • 2 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      So I took a -8 trying to bring in Son while keeping Salah and Kane... worth doing another -4 to bring in KDB/Zaha? Leading ML by 50

      1. Sandy Ravage
        • 8 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Why not?

        1. BantasyFootball
          • 2 Years
          1 year, 10 months ago

          Mostly.... fear of dropping the league at this late stage!
          But surely the lead is comfortable enough....?

      2. Shineonme
        • 7 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Now YES

    3. Scots Gooner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Based on that injury - Salah/Havertz to Son/Diaz for -8?

    4. KanuLenoMeeMoCash
      • 3 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      What happened to salah, missed a few min. Was it bad?

      1. Honker Muddlefoot
        • 5 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Looked like his groin. No limp while walking off, but he did come straight off.

        1. Baps hunter
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          1 year, 10 months ago

          I think he whispering about his groin when Alisson was down. Jota started warm up after that imo.

    5. La Roja
      • 12 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Ings(c)

      30 point min

      1. TorresMagic™
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        30 min for the GW?

        1. dshv
          • 6 Years
          1 year, 10 months ago

          Come onn i am thinking to cap him too over son..

          1. TorresMagic™
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 14 Years
            1 year, 10 months ago

            He loves an injury.

      2. NABIL - FPL otai
        • 11 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Ssshhh

      3. NorCal Villan
        • 2 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        More like he gets 30 new tats before the next match. His tats are getting tats

    6. SAY MY NAME
      • 6 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      49 minute first half in the sun.....gonna be some tired pool/chelsea players at this rate

      1. TorresMagic™
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Heat wave?

        1. SAY MY NAME
          • 6 Years
          1 year, 10 months ago

          exactly! 🙂

          1. TorresMagic™
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 14 Years
            1 year, 10 months ago

            In Antartica?

    7. jonnybhoy
      • 11 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Not keen on my FH draft. What to do?

      Pickford
      Digne Cash TAA Mykolenko
      Salah Son KDB Zaha
      Ings Richarlison

      1. dabber7
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Take Salah out?

      2. Shineonme
        • 7 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Salah is done for the season now. Will be saved for CL

      3. Espanyolie
        • 3 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Not too much, take salah out, bring in Kane or Mane/Diaz/Jota

      4. jonnybhoy
        • 11 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Sorry Salah is Kane now

    8. Eh, just one more thing ...
      • 12 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      FA CUP TRIVIA

      Who won the FA Cup in 1987 … no cheating?

      1. el polako
        • 6 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Forest?

      2. Dynamic Duos
        • 10 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Was it Wimbledon?

        1. Eh, just one more thing ...
          • 12 Years
          1 year, 10 months ago

          They won in 88

      3. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
        • 10 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Cov

        1. Eh, just one more thing ...
          • 12 Years
          1 year, 10 months ago

          Well done NO NEED

          1. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
            • 10 Years
            1 year, 10 months ago

            I can give you all cup final details 1970-1999 yet be clueless from about 2005 onwards

      4. BeWater
        • 3 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Coventry.

        I'm a Spurs fan.

        1. Eh, just one more thing ...
          • 12 Years
          1 year, 10 months ago

          Ouch. Was a great game I seem to remember..

      5. moment
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Coventry City, remember it well

      6. The 12th Man
        • 10 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Keith Houchen diving header.

    9. dshv
      • 6 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Salah to mane or just bring kane

      1. Krafty Werks
        • 9 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Gone Mane at the mo!!....don't mention the MO?!!

      2. COLLIN QUANER
        • 7 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Kane

    10. JELLYFISH
      • 11 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Pleased I didn’t push the trigger on Ramsdale > Pickford for my ft.
      Probably going to do Salah > Mane.

      1. TorresMagic™
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        GK change might be worth the hit.

    11. mdm
      • 12 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Son or Zaha?

      1. tokara
        • 9 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Lol

      2. NABIL - FPL otai
        • 11 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Excuse me?

      3. Sailboats
        • 8 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        yes

      4. Shineonme
        • 7 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Oh please

      5. dabber7
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        I know Zaha has the extra game this week but Son has got Norwich in 38, think I'd go Son.

    12. Walter White (WW)
      • 2 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Damn. I don’t know who to replace Salah with. I don’t know what to do with my team anymore.

      Team is already lit up like a Xmas tree

      1. Walter White (WW)
        • 2 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Salah to Pinky & De Bruyne?

      2. NABIL - FPL otai
        • 11 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Get Mane Jota Diaz. Play 4-5-1 then.

        Xmas tree completed 😀

    13. _Gunner
      • 9 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Which is better? BB

      A- Kulu + Telles + Broja + Salah > Son + Zaha + Sessegnon + Richarlison -12

      B- Telles + Salah + Broja > Son + Digne + Richarlison -8

      1. Bucket Man
        • 5 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        B

    14. FC Hakkebøf
      • 7 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Best duo here?

      A) Kane and Zaha
      B) Richarlison and Mane
      C) Richarlison and Son
      D) Vardy and Zaha (Vardy to Kane for gw38)

      1. dabber7
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        A

    15. Henning
      • 9 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      1 or 2

      1. Matip and Ings
      2. Robertson and Trossard
      Also play Mykolenko or Digne?

      1. Espanyolie
        • 3 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Would need to see whole team for that calll

        1. Henning
          • 9 Years
          1 year, 10 months ago

          Pickford
          Robertson Mykolenko Cash
          Son KDB Zaha Dias Trossard
          Kane Richarlison

          Steele Digne Tsamikas Richardson

    16. moment
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Any update on how likely Watkins is to play?

      1. Shineonme
        • 7 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        More than likely won't play

    17. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
      • 10 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Son capper warning your gameweek could be destroyed by about 2pm tomorrow

      1. el polako
        • 6 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Early kick off...

        *evil laugh*

    18. DBW - Slug's Mortgage …
      • 3 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      RIP people who’ve made early transfers.

      How bad was Salah injury? Missed it all

      1. Shineonme
        • 7 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Not that bad but will not play the last two premiership games. Will be saved for CL now.

    19. MGD
      • 7 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Who to lose for Zaha (-4)

      A. Mount
      B. Foden
      C. None

    20. Walter White (WW)
      • 2 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      That could even be Salah’s final game for Liverpool

      1. Espanyolie
        • 3 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Not necessarily an LFC fan but after what happened with Ramos , I really hope he makes it to the UCL final

    21. Well you know, Triffic
      • 13 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      How many did their gw37 transfers before this game?

    22. FPL Emu
      • 13 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Disregarding money, who is the best Liverpool attacker for GW37 now, in your opinion?

      1. Gudjohnsen
        • 7 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Diaz

      2. TorresMagic™
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Let the game finish.

    23. Gudjohnsen
      • 7 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Salah to KDB or Zaha?

      1. Shineonme
        • 7 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        This is what I'm pondering. Tuff one because Zaha has two games but KDB can easily outscore him in his one game but the league title will be won before the final game of the season imo so will KDB be on the bench in his last league game and come on for cameo .

    24. EL tridente
      • 6 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Gordon or Maddison on FH?

    25. Eh, just one more thing ...
      • 12 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      FA CUP TRIVIA

      Who were the captains?

      West Ham 1980
      Man Utd 1990
      Chelsea 2000
      Chelsea 2010

      1. Not again Shirley
        • 7 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Schmeichel?

        1. Eh, just one more thing ...
          • 12 Years
          1 year, 10 months ago

          Nope

          Different captains each year

          1. Not again Shirley
            • 7 Years
            1 year, 10 months ago

            Yes I just meant the United captain. Don’t know the others.

      2. NABIL - FPL otai
        • 11 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Bryan Robson?

        1. Eh, just one more thing ...
          • 12 Years
          1 year, 10 months ago

          Correct … Man U covered

      3. Eh, just one more thing ...
        • 12 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Where’s paddy Bonner .. he’d know these and probably tell us the scores too.

      4. Goro Majima
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        1980 - Billy Bonds? 1990 - Robson?

        1. Eh, just one more thing ...
          • 12 Years
          1 year, 10 months ago

          Correct Goro ..

      5. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
        • 10 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Bonds and Wise I think not sure on 2010

        1. Eh, just one more thing ...
          • 12 Years
          1 year, 10 months ago

          Correct on wise

          Just 2010 to go

      6. NorCal Villan
        • 2 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Frank Stallone

      7. NABIL - FPL otai
        • 11 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        JT 2010?

        1. Eh, just one more thing ...
          • 12 Years
          1 year, 10 months ago

          Indeed Nabil

          1. NABIL - FPL otai
            • 11 Years
            1 year, 10 months ago

            Cheers man

            I remember fondly Everton beating United.. best game for the neutrals 😛

      8. Eh, just one more thing ...
        • 12 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Right match restarted … so answers are

        Billy bonds
        Bryan robson
        Dennis wise
        John terry

        Side note: John terry turned up, changed into his kit, and celebrated in all 4 finals

    26. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Pickford
      TAA Cancelo Digne
      KdB Son Zaha Coutinho
      Kane Richarlison Ings

      Seems a pretty decent pivot off Salah.

      1. Flynny
        • 9 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Don't fancy robbo who had a rest last week ahead of taa?

      2. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
        • 10 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Glad i can get 9 of those without a hit or FH

      3. The Mentaculus
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 2 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Bit of an odd one... anything in particular put you off pivoting to Mané/Diaz/Jota? Don't fancy a piece the "lets fix our GD" pie?

        1. Camzy
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          1 year, 10 months ago

          Because by the time they play Southampton I don't think Liverpool will care any more about the league.

          City play first and if they win against West Ham it's practically over.

          The players will ease off knowing the CL final is close. Salah's injury is a reminder.

      4. dabber7
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        No Liverpool attackers against Southampton?

        1. Camzy
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          1 year, 10 months ago

          Who do you lose from that front 7?

          1. dabber7
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            1 year, 10 months ago

            Whoever you replaced Salah with?

            I think Mane is probably a better pick at Southampton than KDB at West Ham.

        2. _Freddo
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          1 year, 10 months ago

          If this goes to extra time, there will be mass rotation because the league will likely be over, Klopp won’t risk key men in a needless game with a CL coming, he’d be asking for trouble.

      5. OptimusBlack
        • 10 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Perfect except Coutinho