Pro Pundits

From safe to high-risk: Four Free Hit drafts for FPL Gameweek 37

Pras and Sonaldo the latest additions to the FFScout team

What a nice feeling this is, to have a deadline almost 48 hours after the press conferences. Time to relax and reflect. This is, of course, unless you are on a Free Hit. For those of us using this chip, we all have another 48 hours to overthink things!

For my final article this season, I’ll share some thoughts on Free Hit drafts heading into the deadline at 10.30am BST on Sunday. More specifically, I want to talk about what options we have to calibrate the risk profile of the Free Hit, taking into account your rank goals or mini-league state. I’ll go from the straight bat, forward defensive to the ‘six in the stands’ draft. Remember though, the riskier your shot, the higher the likelihood of getting out. 

Template locks

With good reason, I see seven players locked in most Free Hit teams. These are:

  • Jordan Pickford 
  • Matty Cash, Lucas Digne 
  • Mohamed Salah, Son Heung-min 
  • Richarlison, Danny Ings

One could argue that Philippe Coutinho or Ollie Watkins could make it, instead of say, Digne, if they were nailed to start both games. But with Steven Gerrard’s comments yesterday on Watkins’ availability for the Crystal Palace game, it reduces the appeal for both players on a Free Hit: Watkins for obvious reasons but I say Coutinho as well because if Watkins does indeed return against Burnley, there is a risk Villa play two up top with Emiliano Buendia in behind. I’m not suggesting this will happen, I’m just saying it’s a risk. I should also add that for those not on a Free Hit, both Coutinho and Watkins are easy holds. Both could play 120 mins+, which may be enough.

The above seven take up about £61m of the budget. Add another £16.6m for the four bench spots and we have a total £77.6m spend. How can we calibrate risk for the remaining £25-27m?

The safe draft

Using the remainder of the budget to add the two highest owned defenders and a high owned forward is the safest Free Hit draft in my view. There is limited upside but also very limited downside. I have essentially used up the remaining budget on Harry Kane, Jooa Cancelo and Trent Alexander-Arnold (or Andrew Robertson, for those with a low team value).

With this team, I own four of the five most owned players in the top 10k. The missing one is Bukayo Saka, who you can cautiously back against given the tougher fixture on paper away to Newcastle. 

A word on Kane v Kevin De Bruyne. Despite the Belgian’s unreal performance versus Wolves in midweek, I am backing Kane. I think with Gabriel Jesus and Riyad Mahrez likely coming back into the fold, it will change De Bruyne’s role back to the assister. He may do splendidly there as well but when you also add the fact that West Ham are playing their final home game, I expect the Hammers to put in a disciplined performance and stay competitive till the end.

Kane on the other hand will be on a high after the strong outing in the north London derby. Spurs can smell fourth place, and this should mean a strong performance at home to Burnley to keep the pressure up on Arsenal, who themselves have a tough away game at St James’ Park.

The bold draft

In the next version, let’s take away the 86% owned (in the top 10k) City defender, Joao Cancelo. This draft turns him into Diogo Jota or Luis Diaz depending on whoever gets fewer minutes in the FA Cup final on Saturday. To fund this, it also removes Kane or De Bruyne to a 0.27%-owned Jamie Vardy, who doubles vs Watford and Chelsea. If somehow we get news pre-deadline that Vardy starts the Watford game, it may be worth going there.

This gives the draft more upside, both from an effective ownership perspective but also in the fact that it attacks the Southampton fixture that Liverpool may use to make a final push to close the goal difference on Man City.

The very bold draft

The next draft removes another 86% owned (in top 10k) defender in Alexander-Arnold and upgrades Jota to De Bruyne. Is it high risk? Yes? Could it pay off? Of course.

While this team looks really good on paper, I do worry about only having one player in a well-owned Liverpool team against a Southampton side that have looked dire recently. When you add that “risk” to also not owning Cancelo and Kane, two popular players in non-Free Hit drafts, you are indeed in very high-risk/high-reward territory.

The ‘YOLO’ draft

Want to throw everything into this Gameweek? Don’t care if you lose 20-50k in rank, as long as you can tell the grandkids you tried? Well, then sell Mohamed Salah for Sadio Mane. The money saved can go into upgrading Vardy back to Kane, so you’ve got four big-hitters from Liverpool, City and Spurs all in one draft. For those that can’t get to this because of team value, can downgrade Vitalli Mykolenko or Cash to the centre-backs from those teams eg. Mason Holgate and Tyrone Mings.

There are, of course, many other variants to the Free Hit in Gameweek 37. One can add James Maddison, Anthony Gordon and Coutinho and/or change the formation. I stuck to the paths that I have been considering the most. It’s fair to say that I am currently looking at variants #1 and #2, but that is because I am currently ranked at 9.5k, which is close to my end-of-season goal. 

Lots may counter this piece and say, you should simply pick the team that scores the most points. To them I say, I think all these teams score similar points. What differentiates them is the volatility in rank change if things work out better or worse than the expectation.

Good luck whatever path you choose. We’re nearly there, folks!

2,182 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Danstoke82
    • 9 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Think this is now my last call, which one on FH?

    A) Maddison
    B) Zaha

    Thanks in advance!

    1. ViperStripes
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Zaha

    2. Baps hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Easy B from me

    3. lilmessipran
      • 11 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Zaha

    4. Qaiss
      • 8 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      A. Watford's team have disappeared and Chelsea's morale might not be great. I think if you have Everton and Villa defenders, then not sure why you'd go Zaha. If you expect Zaha to do well, then you think those teams won't keep clean sheets.

      1. Danstoke82
        • 9 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Thanks all

    5. Stranger Mings
      • 3 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      B

  2. ViperStripes
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Play 1 (Bench 2)
    a) Ramsey
    b) Mina
    c) Saka
    ?

    1. lilmessipran
      • 11 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Between A or B, A probably

    2. Stranger Mings
      • 3 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      A if fit

  3. lilmessipran
    • 11 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Start one -

    A Laporte
    B Davies
    C Rudiger

    1. ViperStripes
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Lapoerte

  4. Kryptonite666
    • 4 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Where do I spend the Salah Money? 3.8 ITB

    Pickford
    Cash Digne Mykolenko (Tsimikas)
    KDB Son Diaz Zaha
    Kane Richarlison Ings

    1. ViperStripes
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Anywhere you want

    2. lilmessipran
      • 11 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Not so sure about double Everton defense maybe upgrade Myko/Digne to Taa/Cancelo?

    3. Hocus Pocus
      • 4 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Richy to Vardy

    4. L S P
      • 8 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Same issue. Cash/Digne->Cancelo/Robbo is my thought.

  5. FCSB
    • 8 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Captain:

    1. Richarlison
    2. Ings

    1. OLLY G
      • 7 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      1

    2. ViperStripes
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      see the poll

    3. Stranger Mings
      • 3 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      R

  6. OLLY G
    • 7 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Do people think Robertson is injured or just tired?

    Thanks.

    1. Revival
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      was just cramp today

    2. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Looked like cramp but quick turn around to next game he must be doubtful of starting

    3. Stranger Mings
      • 3 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Think risky so. Prefer TAA

  7. mcsteely
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Bench two

    Alonso
    Saka
    Dewsbury hall
    Nketiah

    1. GE
      • 7 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Last two

  8. GE
    • 7 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    1) Laporte -> Cash
    2) Laporte -> Digne
    3) Mount -> Zaha
    4) Salah -> Son
    5) KDB -> Son

    1. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      4 looks the obvious move. Is Laporte injured? Could get one of the villa boys for a -4 as well

      1. GE
        • 7 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        If Kulu is out maybe Kulu -> Zaha (-4) instead or would you do Laporte -> Cash/Digne (-4) (have Alonso on the bench)

        1. Pat Bonner
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          1 year, 10 months ago

          Is kulu a doubt as well? I can’t keep up haha!

          I like the look of villa guys for the double so I’d maybe roll the dice with one of them

    2. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      4

    3. M2.0
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Laporte trained today

      1. GE
        • 7 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Thanks

      2. FredrikH
        • 11 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Source? Great for my squad if true.

          1. FredrikH
            • 11 Years
            1 year, 10 months ago

            Thanks. Let's hope one foot is enough.

  9. Revival
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Priority now will be to have Salah fit for Champions League final. Can't see him being risked if he has any issue now

    1. ryacoo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      I reckon he might get 60-70 mins vs Wolves for match fitness/rhythm though

    2. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Easy sell with 2GWs left

  10. Sheffield Wednesday
    • 3 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Any Liverpool players on FH?

    1. dshv
      • 6 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      I am thinking to go without them…

      1. Sheffield Wednesday
        • 3 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        I couldn't see the FA Cup final so trying to piece together the consequences

    2. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      I would only consider Matip and Jota

    3. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 9 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Taa and tsimi on bench for me

    4. luk46
      • 5 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      maybe Diaz

  11. ryacoo
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    A) Save FT
    B) Salah to Son (bench Saka)

    Pickford
    James Digne Cancelo
    Ramsey Mount Saka Gordon
    Nketiah Kane Richarlison

    Dubravka TAA Salah Sais

    1. Alcapaul
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      B

  12. Tonyawesome69
    • 5 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    A. GW37 Ings (c) and 38 transfer Kane in
    B. GW37 Zaha (c) and Kane in 1GW earlier

  13. Fernandito
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Have Son already…with Salah funds would you go KDB or Kane?

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Kane

    2. tbos83
      • 3 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Vardy

    3. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 9 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      kane

  14. Baps hunter
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    How do I get Zaha in? Thx for answers in advance

    1. Baps hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      A) Couts to Zaha
      B) Madders to Zaha
      C) Saka to Zaha and Ramsdale to Jordan/Kasper (-4)

      1. Tonyawesome69
        • 5 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        I'm not keen on any of those options

    2. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Sell Salah

      1. Baps hunter
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        My current midfield is:
        Son, KdB, Maddison, Coutinho, Saka

    3. Revival
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      sell coutinho

    4. J ⚒ Gimme ur Mané
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Sell everyone for -4

  15. FredrikH
    • 11 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Worst case I have only one playing defender this GW. Laporte -> Cash worth -4?
    James Taa Robbo Cancelo Laporte.

    1. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Yes

    2. Baps hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      It's only -2 because of high floor 🙂 Do it!

    3. Alcapaul
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Yea

  16. winchester
    • 3 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Please rate this fh draft. salah out?

    pickford
    cash digne mykolenko
    kdb zaha son salah kdh
    kane richarlison

    1. ryacoo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Salah looks likely to miss out yeah, I'd get rid

  17. Henryyy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    This might be a good week to FH after all, didnt look that way a few weeks ago

    1. AC/DC AFC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      A few hours ago?

  18. Ajax Hamsterdam
    • 9 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    cheeky repost 🙂

    A double villa defence (Mings cash)
    B double villa attack (Ings and buendia)

    Thank you and gl !

    1. AC/DC AFC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      B

      1. Ajax Hamsterdam
        • 9 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        yeah i like that option as well cheers

  19. JoeSoap
    • 10 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    A. Laporte/Dennis>Jansson/Ings
    B. Laporte/Dennis>Emerson Royal/Richarlison

    Ramsdale
    Myko, Trent, Cancelo
    Saka, Kulu, Salah, Gordon, Raphina
    Kane, Toney
    Foster, Laporte, White, Dennis

    1. Bucket Man
      • 5 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      B

  20. antis0cial
    • 7 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    A) Kane Maddison
    B) Vardy Mane

    1. Henryyy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      A

    2. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 9 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      a

    3. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      A

  21. Klip Klopp
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Thoughts on my FH draft:

    Pickford
    Clyne / Robertson / Digne
    Maddison / Son / Zaha / KDB
    Richarlson / Ings / Kane

    Bench: 3.9, Gordon, Amartey, Tsimikas

    1. Eh, just one more thing ...
      • 12 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Good but I wouldn’t risk Robbo .. he looked knackered today … and it gives you plenty of cash to play with .. and you could then upgrade Clyne too?

  22. ViperStripes
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    If you’re asking questions and getting no replies, try answering someone else’s questions too, If we all answered 2 questions for every 1 question we asked, then all questions would have at least 2 replies.

    1. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 9 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      was that a question ? 😉

  23. dshv
    • 6 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    So lets go withou pool on FH???

    1. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 9 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      suit yourself

  24. FCSB
    • 8 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Current FH draft:

    Pickford
    TAA Cash Mykolenko
    KDB Son Zaha Coutinho
    Kane Richarlison Ings

    Steele Brownhill Kelly Tsimikas

    Final dilemma:

    1. TAA Coutinho
    2. Digne Maddison

    Thanks guys

    1. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Looks great. Think I’d maybe avoid pool if I was on FH

    2. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 9 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      i d go mings rather than digne for safety if option 2
      but i prefer 1 🙂

  25. Pat Bonner
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    What hits are we on now? I’m looking at a -12 but got an awful rank so nice to have some fun

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 5 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      -4 max

      1. Pat Bonner
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Nice one. I have 3 pool and 2 Chelsea so not expecting many of them to play

    2. Eh, just one more thing ...
      • 12 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Most likely just a -4 … bollox rank too but mini league leads to protect.

      1. Pat Bonner
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Least you have something to play for, I’m 100 pts off the pace in mini leagues. Good luck

    3. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Thought I had missed the FH chances earlier this season, but feels ok to have this week and hopefully make up some ground.

      1. Pat Bonner
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Nice week to use it now - ditch pool and have them available for 38

        1. RamaJama
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          1 year, 10 months ago

          Let’s see what happens, don’t trust anything this year

  26. Feed tha Sheep
    • 11 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Which on FH?

    A. Holgate & Coutinho & Vardy
    B. TAA/Robertson& Coutinho/Maddison & Richarlison
    C Digne & Foden/Diaz & Richarlison

    1. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      B

    2. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 9 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      b

  27. ekul the lokonga enthusiast
    • 8 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    help me out please

    saka to

    a) barnes
    b) buendia?

    1. Stranger Mings
      • 3 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      B

    2. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Not sure I’d do either of those. Might only get one game from them

  28. Vjm6891
    • 3 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    Any Wolves player worth a risk on a FH. Norwich at home is as good as it gets

    1. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      I’d avoid. Way better picks available

    2. Alcapaul
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      No

  29. OLLY G
    • 7 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    If none of Trent, Robertson or Soyuncu play l will only have 2 defenders.

    Do you think l should hit to sell Soyuncu?

    Thanks.

    1. Alcapaul
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Yea

      1. Alcapaul
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        1 year, 10 months ago

        Just checked his price. Id do the easy move to Mykolenko

  30. Eightball
    • 3 Years
    1 year, 10 months ago

    On free hit:

    A) Cancelo
    B) Robbo
    C) Digne
    D) Andersen

    Other defenders are Pickford, Cash, Mykolenko

    Originally I had Robbo with Tsimikas first sub but now I'm not so sure. Digne seems a popular pick but I have been trolled SOOOO many times by that guy in previous FPL seasons.

    1. Alcapaul
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      Digne

    2. Hocus Pocus
      • 4 Years
      1 year, 10 months ago

      It’s a lottery, digne for me purely because of the two fixtures and villa are playing decent