Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers are bracing themselves for a second successive Double Gameweek, pondering a long-term chip strategy and forecasting expected points while their fingers twitch nervously over the Triple Captain chip.
Norwegian marksman Erling Haaland (£12.2m) leads a cavalcade of Double Gameweek captaincy hopefuls, with candidates from Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur providing alternate names for those with a healthy appetite for risks.
As usual, the Captain Sensible article is here to highlight which assets have the best chance of hauling – and, specific to this week, whether now is the time to use the Triple Captain chip.
First, we will assess the fallout of the captain poll, before then analysing the best options, Rate My Team (RMT) and the Premier Fantasy Tools ratings ahead of Friday’s 18:30 GMT deadline.
THE CAPTAIN POLL
Haaland returns to the summit of the captain poll after a brief hiatus, backed by just under seven-tenths of total votes cast at the time of writing.
No other player has garnered more than 15 per cent, with Marcus Rashford (£7.0m) currently in second place.
In third, Harry Kane (£11.6m) has just over four per cent of votes, followed by Kevin De Bruyne (£12.5m) and Luke Shaw (£5.1m) slightly further back.
DOUBLE GAMEWEEK CANDIDATES
ERLING HAALAND / KEVIN DE BRUYNE
When Manchester City squeaked a 1-0 victory over Chelsea in Gameweek 19, it was just the third blank in 16 Premier League appearances for Haaland. It was a subdued performance, shorn of the usual accuracy, by failing to register a single shot on target despite receiving two big chances.
Haaland’s underlying goal threat numbers over the last six matches have slightly dropped below his gold standard but 19 shots inside the box, ten big chances, and nine shots on target still place him in the division’s top four over this period.
However, shot quality usurps volume, as Haaland ranks best for both expected goals (xG) and expected goal involvement (xGI) during this time, with 5.67 and 6.15 respectively.
De Bruyne registered his third blank in a row during the win at Chelsea, continuing his underwhelming form since the restart. However, owners can count themselves unfortunate – over the three Gameweeks, De Bruyne boasts the second-biggest negative xGI delta (-1.93) in the division.
Analysing over the customary last six matches, the Belgian leads the division for chances created (23) and is third for big chances created (6). Just a solitary Fantasy assist has arrived, highlighting his downturn in production.
Man City’s juggernaut attack has regressed to the mean over recent matches, in comparison to their early season over-production. Their xG of 12.97 exceeded nine actual goals.
Pep Guardiola’s troops travel to Old Trafford next, against a Manchester United side that is rejuvenated under authoritarian manager Erik ten Hag. Their four-game Premier League winning streak has buoyed confidence amongst supporters but a red-hot derby test awaits.
Defensively, they place inside the top three for clean sheets and preventing both shots inside the box and big chances over the last half-dozen matches.
Man United’s defensive improvement should be counter-balanced against the generous opponents of late, facing four of the Premier League’s current bottom six.
Guardiola’s side host Spurs in the second part of Double Gameweek 20. Antonio Conte’s inconsistent charges arrive with one clean sheet in their last six outings, shipping 11 goals.
Worryingly, Spurs place in the bottom four for chances conceded in central positions (26) – an ominous statistic given Man City top the division for chances created (92), with 41.3 per cent of these arriving in the middle.
MARCUS RASHFORD
