TopMarx
  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
  • 5 Years

Website: https://fantasy.premierleague.com/a/entry/95/history

Fan of Fantasy Football and Monty Python. \"Archimedes out to Socrates, Socrates back to Archimedes, Archimedes out to Heraclitus, he beats Hegel. Heraclitus a little flick, here he comes on the far post, Socrates is there, Socrates heads it in! Socrates has scored! The Greeks are going mad, the Greeks are going mad! Socrates scores, got a beautiful cross from Archimedes. The Germans are disputing it. Hegel is arguing that the reality is merely an a priori adjunct of non-naturalistic ethics, Kant via the categorical imperative is holding that ontologically it exists only in the imagination, and Marx is claiming it was offside.\" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-2gJamguN04

Comments (Last 30 Days)

  1. The Great and The Good: Top Marx Strikes Back 7 days, 9 hours ago

    With the greatest love and respect to Az, in his current form and disoriented state I'm not sure the chairman of the HoF team (Chris A) would sanction such a move. If we are talking about Ville or Mark on the other hand that would be interesting...PS sorry Az » Read

  2. The Great and The Good: Top Marx Strikes Back 7 days, 9 hours ago

    Haha that would be a motivational speech of a very different kind! Hopefully I won't need to resort to that just yet... » Read

  3. Learning from The Great and The Good: Gameweek 20 and 21 7 days, 11 hours ago

    What are your thoughts on Manchester City assets now TM? Having sold Sané and Sterling » Read

  4. The Great and The Good: Top Marx Strikes Back 7 days, 11 hours ago

    AZ thanks very much indeed but this is Greyhead's fine penmanship, I've only added comment at the end! » Read

  5. The Great and The Good: Top Marx Strikes Back 7 days, 15 hours ago

    I fear your excellent team talks will spur The Great and The Good onto victory!I'd better start rehearsing my Al Pacino speech https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Z_7eu64y6c » Read

  6. Members Only - Premium Dilemmas: which £11m+ players to own? 7 days, 18 hours ago

    You will probably be a fan of "post shot xG" or "xG2".xG doesn't look at any info after the shot is taken, it only considers factors leading up to the shot.Post shot xG considers what happens to the shot and where it ends up.Have a read here http://thepowerofgoals.blogspot.com/2018/01/after-shot-xg2.html?m=1 and https://www.infogol.net/en/blog/analysis/expected-goals-who-is-the-premier-leagues-best-goalkeeperSo far I've only seen it used in discussion of keeper quality. » Read

  7. Members Only - Premium Dilemmas: which £11m+ players to own? 7 days, 18 hours ago

    * -1.43 » Read

  8. Members Only - Premium Dilemmas: which £11m+ players to own? 7 days, 18 hours ago

    For OPTA the xG value of a penalty is 0.79.They both take penalties, Kane is slightly better than Auba. Kane has 17 successful pens and 3 misses in the PL. xG from 20 penalties = 15.8 so Delta of +1.2Auba is 12 from 17 in PL and Bundesliga. xG from 17 pens = 13.43 so Delta of +1.43Some different but not enough to explain the gap between them » Read

  9. Members Only - Premium Dilemmas: which £11m+ players to own? 7 days, 18 hours ago

    You mean within the penalty box his shots are closer? I don't think that's true... I will look at the shot location maps.There are other factors that affect xG:- Angle of the shot - Did the chance fall at the player's feet or was it a header? - Was it a one on one? - What was the assist like? (eg long ball, cross, through ball, pull-back) - In what passage of play did it happen? (eg open play, direct free-kick, corner kick) - Has the player just beaten an opponent? - Is it a rebound?Ultimately Auba fashions better chances for himself in the box, either due to his ability as a footballer or thanks to his teammates, or both. » Read

  10. Members Only - Premium Dilemmas: which £11m+ players to own? 8 days, 37 mins ago

    You are right, he does take a higher proportion of shots from distance. But look at the table in my comment above, that only considers shots in the box, Kane still as a Delta much higher than Auba's. Or another way of saying the same thing, Auba has a higher xG from a nearly identical number of shots in the box. » Read

  11. Members Only - Premium Dilemmas: which £11m+ players to own? 8 days, 52 mins ago

    No to the first bit (Kane takes more) but yes to the second bit 🙂 » Read

  12. Members Only - Premium Dilemmas: which £11m+ players to own? 8 days, 1 hour ago

    I agree with most of what you say.What I meant was not "Everyone will regress to the mean", but "Everyone will regress to their own mean". I hope that is clear from the points I make in the rest of the article?I think if we look at 5 seasons of worth data, look at the variance from season to season, we can get a decent idea of what we can expect to happen over the current season.I agree with you - it's not going to be 100% accurate and judgement will have to play a part. I guess that's where the skill lies. » Read

  13. Members Only - Premium Dilemmas: which £11m+ players to own? 8 days, 1 hour ago

    You make a good point, and I did in fact edit that sentence down as I wanted to keep it very simple.Under xG Delta I say: "If a player has 12 goals from an xG of 9, then he has scored 3 more goals than we would expect from a player of average ability."So I got the average bit in there 🙂I agree that a good chance for one player is not necessarily a good chance for another player.It was interesting reading Kenneth Tang talk about beating his friends at fantasy NBA despite not watching basketball:“Every match there is 100-something to 100-something, you know? A lot of rebounds, a lot of field goals. Much easier because the stat is a lot more standard, a lot more static. Too easy.”Tin cans in FPL, very true. » Read

  14. Members Only - Premium Dilemmas: which £11m+ players to own? 8 days, 1 hour ago

    This is a good understanding "What you mean is that the chances are better suited for the striker, so the xG doesn't necessarily increase, but the delta does!"Essentially when a team plays to the strengths of a particular player, his delta should go up.I always think a good use of stats is comparing past performance to present performance, if you suspect a positive change in the team or individual player, then this should be reflected in the stats. » Read

  15. Members Only - Premium Dilemmas: which £11m+ players to own? 8 days, 2 hours ago

    I think you are right to dig down to individual player qualities, and how those affect stats.However this is incorrect:"If a player's delta shoots up then we can infer that he is suddenly getting a better quality of chance which favours him as a player?"The better quality of chance is contained in the xG, if his delta shoots up it means he is converting more chances than would be expected of the average player. For instance possibly scoring more shots from distance. Shots from distance have a low probability of resulting in a goal, score one or two and your xG Delta will shoot up.Take a look at my comment towards the bottom of the page and see if that clarifies things. » Read

  16. Members Only - Premium Dilemmas: which £11m+ players to own? 8 days, 2 hours ago

  17. Members Only - Premium Dilemmas: which £11m+ players to own? 8 days, 2 hours ago

    For those interested, here is the data for the six players discussed in the article, shots in the box (SiB) only (data for the past five season, source: understat.com ):211 SiB // 52 goals // 38.04 xG // +13.96 Delta // Hazard (0.25) 409 SiB // 105 goals // 91.12 xG // +13.88 Delta // Kane (0.26) 293 SiB // 72 goals // 60.67 xG // +11.33 Delta // Salah (0.25) 442 SiB // 91 goals // 91.09 xG // -0.09 Delta // Aguero (0.21) 232 SiB // 45 goals // 47.52 xG // -2.52 Delta // Sterling (0.19) 400 SiB // 107 goals // 109.83 xG // -2.83 Delta // Aubameyang (0.27)The number in brackets at the end = goals / SiB.So by the everyday definition Auba is the most clinical finisher of the six because he has the best goal to shots ratio. However by the xG definition he is the least clinical finisher of the six because he has the worst xG Delta.One question I now have is - why does Auba get better chances in the box (according to xG) compared to the other five players?At the end of the day, … » Read

  18. Members Only - Premium Dilemmas: which £11m+ players to own? 8 days, 3 hours ago

    There are some really interesting points that have been made, I've been thinking a lot about how we use xG.A criticism of my own article - and actually not just mine but most of the articles I read in the media - is that we/I am rather lazy with the term 'finisher' used in the discussion of xG. Here's why:"players who consistently exceed their xG can be regarded as expert finishers."Is not necessarily true. The problem is the definition of the word 'finisher' and whether it accurately describes what xG is telling us.Let's compare Coutinho with Aubameyang last season, who played 14 and 13 matches respectively:54 shots // 15 SiB // 7 goals // 4 goals from outside box // 3.51 xG // +3.49 xG Delta // Coutinho 31 shots // 28 SiB // 10 goals // 0 goals from outside box // 8.63 xG // +1.37 xG Delta // AubameyangCoutinho takes very few shots from inside the box and is very good at shooting from distance. According to the xG model, a shot from outside the box has a very low proba… » Read

  19. Members Only - Premium Dilemmas: which £11m+ players to own? 8 days, 17 hours ago

    Some good points there. I'll be interested to see what Mark does as he has the same premium players as you. It proved very successful early on, but perhaps splitting premium players between midfield and attack is now the way to go. » Read

  20. Members Only - Premium Dilemmas: which £11m+ players to own? 8 days, 17 hours ago

    I'm not sure what that says about the rest of the article » Read