TopMarx
  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
  • Moderator
  • 8 Years

Website: https://fantasy.premierleague.com/entry/38829/history

Fan of Fantasy Football and Monty Python. "Archimedes out to Socrates, Socrates back to Archimedes, Archimedes out to Heraclitus, he beats Hegel. Heraclitus a little flick, here he comes on the far post, Socrates is there, Socrates heads it in! Socrates has scored! The Greeks are going mad, the Greeks are going mad! Socrates scores, got a beautiful cross from Archimedes. The Germans are disputing it. Hegel is arguing that the reality is merely an a priori adjunct of non-naturalistic ethics, Kant via the categorical imperative is holding that ontologically it exists only in the imagination, and Marx is claiming it was offside.

Comments (Last 30 Days)

  1. How did Fabio Borges become arguably the best ever FPL manager? 5 days, 7 mins ago

    That's interesting that the process could be as important as the metrics. So literally just taking your time over something naturally reduces impulsiveness, is that the idea? (seems fairly obvious) I've been reading about 'quasi-rationality', which has intuition at one end of the scale and analytical thinking at the other. The criticism of intuition is that it doesn't require any hard work; it's very easy to say 'my gut tells me'. But, at the same time, I would give value to the gut feeling from someone with experience and a good track record in FPL (yourself or Fabio for instance). And I'd also question what something like xG is telling us, given that it groups and weights different shot attributes into one. If a player is consistently over-performing, is that because he's especially good at finishing certain types of chances? Maybe they happen to be good at something the xG model considers difficult, such as scoring from distance, or scoring headers. Last season JWP scored 3 g… » Read

  2. How did Fabio Borges become arguably the best ever FPL manager? 5 days, 4 hours ago

    No I don't. If I had, I'd be better at FPL 😉 From the few exchanges we've had, he strikes me as a very clear thinking person, he seems to have a good knowledge around football, for instance a better feel for the Portuguese players he's familiar with (given that he's Portuguese). Team news and a player's expected minutes are also very important. In the interview he mentions a couple of people who do know him well, and they could doubtless give more insights. But from the little I know (and without wanting to betray his trust), I would say you are barking up the right tree by thinking about career xG. Also, regarding the Pro Pundits in general, I think it's great that we get to hear from several top managers now, but equally I think there's value in an outside perspective: are you always aware of the things you do well and the things you do badly? I would say mostly yes, but there's also knowledge to be gained from what Greyhead does now, and I definitely learned a lot when I u… » Read

  3. How did Fabio Borges become arguably the best ever FPL manager? 5 days, 5 hours ago

    Of course! And I'm in a different timezone to the UK, I would have replied sooner otherwise. » Read

  4. How did Fabio Borges become arguably the best ever FPL manager? 5 days, 5 hours ago

    Yeah, fair, not a great job summarising the articles, but thank you for looking a little deeper. And your point feels like it makes sense, how could we test that? Maybe look at players who've taken more than 250 shots and see if their finishing improved when comparing different groups: 1-100 shots, 101 to 250 shots, and 250+ shots? Maybe a fun exercise to do and useful to know if there is a pattern. » Read

  5. How did Fabio Borges become arguably the best ever FPL manager? 5 days, 5 hours ago

    Well, three fairly obvious takeaways: 1) strikers finish a greater proportion of their shots 2) high volume shooters finish a great proportion of their shots (and combining the two: strikers who shot more finish a greater proportion of their shots compared to strikers who take fewer shots) 3) earning more money means you are more likely to finish a greater proportion of your shots. And you are right, it's definitely not rocket science. » Read

  6. How did Fabio Borges become arguably the best ever FPL manager? 5 days, 5 hours ago

    See my reply to Ritzyd above, but I apologise, I'll give more thought to making hot topics in the future. » Read

  7. How did Fabio Borges become arguably the best ever FPL manager? 5 days, 5 hours ago

    Well, yeah, kind of but I thought it was a little more interesting than that. FPL Virgin's article looked at Fabio's use of xG to identify the better finishers. And to use that information when interpreting current, smaller sample size, xG data. It's a fairly simple idea but it helps overcome one of the weaknesses of xG: when producing its values xG doesn't account for who takes the shot. So if player A tends to overperform his xG, while player B tends to underperform, then player A is more likely to score from 0.5 xG chance than player B. Sure, that's obvious, but it helps us get a better feel for xG numbers while also adjusting for potentially noisy smaller sample sizes. My point was really to highlight other (much older) research that uses different stats/methods to identify the better finishers: shot volume, position, and team value (or perhaps payroll would be more specific). So those are three specific things we can factor into our thinking when reviewing stats or deci… » Read

  8. How did Fabio Borges become arguably the best ever FPL manager? 5 days, 22 hours ago

    Finishing skill is a really interesting topic, and I think one aspect of finishing skill that doesn't get spoken about enough is something Michael Caley observed back in 2014 https://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com/2014/4/25/5652640/player-finishing-skill-is-real : "Football managers recognize which of their players have the best striking skills and arrange tactics to get those players the most chances." Consequently, as Caley highlighted in his article, there is a correlation between players who shoot a lot and players who finish more of their chances. He also found a link between position and finishing ability, noting: "Managers, unsurprisingly, know to put their better finishers in advanced positions, and from these positions the players score more goals." A third interesting aspect of finish skill is squad value: "... player finishing skill is the primary driver of the "super team effect" in expected goals. Barcelona, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich all outperform typical… » Read

  9. The best FPL midfielders for a Gameweek 7 Wildcard 16 days, 7 hours ago

    Please send me an email if you want to be included Jafalad » Read

  10. The best FPL midfielders for a Gameweek 7 Wildcard 16 days, 16 hours ago

    Late notice - looking for a Community Member to take on the Scout Picks in Gameweek 7. A busy work schedule means this week's Community Champion is unable to take part. I'm tweaking the process slightly after a couple of late drop-outs recently; there will be a draw for a champion and a sub, just in case the champion is unable to get his selection in on time. The sub then becomes the champion for the following Gameweek. What's this about? Each week the Scout panel of Neale, Tom, Sam and Az pick a team of players who they think will fare best in the upcoming Gameweek, but their choice may leave some people questioning - can I do better? Well, time to prove you’re more than just talk - each week a member of the community will be selected to go head-to-head against the Scout Picks, with the Community Member who has the largest winning margin across the 38 weeks taking home a £100 Amazon voucher and entry to our Mods and Cons League. If chosen, you will have a budget of 83m to … » Read

  11. Getting the right goalkeeper 17 days, 2 hours ago

    Fixed » Read

  12. Getting the right goalkeeper 17 days, 2 hours ago

    Excellent and thoroughly well researched, thank you for posting Circusmonkey. I agree that Mendy looks like an excellent pick, I wonder if the Leeds defence will improve making Meslier a better option, and Jose Sa is one for the watchlist I think - he got an assist but could have had two, those two chances created serving him well in the bonus points system. I wonder if Sa playing the ball long to Jimenez is a tactic that will persist or if it was just for the Southampton game? I also expect to see Martinez doing well again, Villa looking solid in a 3-5-2, he got the second-highest points tally by a goalkeeper last year, amazing season. Great read, food for thought. » Read

  13. The FPL players on the Watchlist ahead of Gameweek 6 24 days, 3 hours ago

    Just to say if you've entered before and weren't selected, do keep trying. This season I'm keeping track of the number of times people enter, and the more times you enter, the better chance you have of being selected. For instance, if by Gameweek 10 you've entered five times previously, you'll get five 'tickets' in the Community Champion lottery for GW10, instead of just a single entry. » Read

  14. The FPL players on the Watchlist ahead of Gameweek 6 24 days, 3 hours ago

    Ready to take on the Scout Picks? Get your Community Picks in for Gameweek 6! Each week the Scout panel of Neale, Tom, Sam and Az pick a team of players who they think will fare best in the upcoming Gameweek, but their choice may leave some people questioning - can I do better? Well, time to prove you’re more than just talk - each week a member of the community will be selected to go head-to-head against the Scout Picks, with the Community Member who has the largest winning margin across the 38 weeks taking home a £100 Amazon voucher and entry to our Mods and Cons League. If chosen, you will have a budget of 83m to select 11 players but outside of that standard FPL rules apply - you need to use a normal FPL formation and with a limit of 3 players from a team. And remember to choose a captain and vice-captain. If you're interested in applying, email me at will@fantasyfootballscout.co.uk with the subject heading "Community Picks". Include your FFS username and FPL Team ID and… » Read