Turambar
  • 2 Years

Comments (Last 30 Days)

  1. The Scout Squad picks for FPL Gameweek 2 8 days, 8 hours ago

    Watched part of the game yesterday, thought Emerson and Pulisic looked like decent fpl picks. Anyone watched the whole game care to give their thoughts on Chelsea fpl-wise. Do you agree on E and P? Any other Chelsea players looked good? » Read

  2. Scoutcast Episode 297 – Patience 9 days, 3 hours ago

    Sure, my example is of course not particularly precise, or even the correct way of calculating, it was just meant as an example to illustrate the other points. But there are lots of reasons why going only by the actual statistical data is not sufficient: We do not have enough of data on Martial in post-Lukaku United (where he will play much more in a different position) and so on, so part of the probability estimates will be qualitative in addition to the obvious quantitative parts. » Read

  3. Scoutcast Episode 297 – Patience 9 days, 4 hours ago

    It seems like a lot of people here do not understand basics on playing games of statistics and probabilities: People talk as if the coming weeks will show what was the right decisions. That is not true, what is the right decision to do right now does not depend on what in hindsight actually happened, but what the probabilities/expected values of return are right now. For instance, for a player like Martial I would estimate what will happen over the next 8 gameweeks something like: A (10%) Martial scores a lot, rises a lot and is almost essential to have B (30%) Martial scores as much as the best players in his pricerange and is a very good player to have C (30%) Martial scores every now and then, but worse than the best similarly priced players D (20%) Martial doesn't score much at all and is definitively a waste of money compared to similarly priced players E (10%) Martial gets injured/red card/other reason so he needs to be sold Similarly you could make a list for Rashford and… » Read

  4. Barnes brace sinks Saints as Pope returns to Fantasy form 10 days, 4 hours ago

    Martial. No one has any idea who will score most goals, or who will play most as a striker (probably they will switch throughout every game). Thus one should pick the cheap one. » Read

  5. FPL Question Time - Consult our panel ahead of Gameweek 2 10 days, 7 hours ago

    A related concept: You could imagine two competing strategies for playing fpl. A: 50% chance of ending with 2400 pts, 50% 2200 pts - expected 2300 B: 100% chance 2280 pts I would choose A, even if the probability of getting a lower position than B is pretty high. It could even be true that B has the highest expected OR, even if A has higher expected points. » Read

  6. FPL Question Time - Consult our panel ahead of Gameweek 2 10 days, 7 hours ago

    In isolation I would choose A. However, due to team value purposes, it might be that in practice A goes down in value a lot more than B, so for price reasons maybe B. If you downgrade the example to a more realistic example like: A: 50% 14 pts 50% 0 pts - excpected 7 B: 100% 6 pts I would def choose A. » Read

  7. FPL Question Time - Consult our panel ahead of Gameweek 2 10 days, 7 hours ago

    I agree. Or at least, I also play the game that way. But from reading the comments here, it seems like a lot of people play it differently. And it might make sense: If your goal is to beat your friends in your league, and you are leading, then having a similar team to them might secure your league win (but will probably lose you overall points). » Read

  8. FPL Question Time - Consult our panel ahead of Gameweek 2 10 days, 8 hours ago

    It seems that people have different goals while playing fpl. My goal is to try to maximize the expected number of points. However, it seems some people rather have the goal of doing well relative to (certain) others, for instance winning their leagues and so on. Some people try to get to the very top by playing higher variance strategies. This will have consequences for your choices and advice: If I think Aubameyang will outscore Kane, I will pick him, even if Kane has 50% ownership and Aubameyang has 10%. If you play relative to others, you might pick Kane, to play on lower variance relative to others. If you play high variance strategies, you generally will own and captain slightly unusual people. Probably you will do worse than the safe "maximize number of points"-strategy, but some gameweeks (and seasons) the high variance pays off, and you will do much better. (Altough, the seasons you don't, which is most, then your bad results is not unlucky, but a result of a chosen risk). … » Read

  9. FPL Question Time - Consult our panel ahead of Gameweek 2 10 days, 8 hours ago

    I am a United fan and sort of agree. Still had him in my team, and will continue to have him. Looks rubbish lots of games, but often gets goals/assists even in those games. Think he is the only player for United who looks bad and scores goals, Rashford and Lingard are mostly the opposite: Look pretty good, but few goals/assists. » Read

  10. FPL Question Time - Consult our panel ahead of Gameweek 2 10 days, 8 hours ago

    Yes, keep. Also, doubt he drops this week. Another blank and he certainly drops, maybe even 0.2. » Read

  11. How each Premier League club did in the summer transfer window 11 days, 1 hour ago

    Why would choosing Rashford over Wilson be obviosuly good, the latter scored 40 pts more than the former last season. Does the statistics say that difference in points per million is larger for strikers/mids than for defenders? Doesn't seem that way to me. » Read

  12. Bournemouth attack uninspiring in Sheffield United draw 11 days, 2 hours ago

    Well, starting from next week, there will definitely be situtations where you have a player who will drop 0.2. Also situations where one or more of your players are injured/banned. In these cases, taking a hit is probably fine. Not sure it is if none of your players are dropping in value or not playing. » Read

  13. Bournemouth attack uninspiring in Sheffield United draw 11 days, 2 hours ago

    Tried a quick naive computation of whether one should take hits to get team value: Over a season the best players score approx 2500 points. Thus 1 million is worth about 25 points over a season. Taking hits to replace out of form players with form players is probably going to be a bit above average, thus, if you are very good/lucky, maybe you can get 40 points extra over a season with an extra million and using more transfers. So, if you use the first half of the season to build team value, you can expect to get at most 20 extra points over the last half of the season, if you have an extra million. This translates into: One hit (-4 pts) is at best worth 0.2 in team value. That means that if your player isn't dropping in value, then you almost certainly shouldn't take a hit, since you need price to rise by 0.4 to get 0.2 effective team value. If your player is dropping and the new player increasing 0.2 then you might hope to break even. If the player is dropping by 0.2 then it mig… » Read

  14. Bournemouth attack uninspiring in Sheffield United draw 11 days, 3 hours ago

    Some people are saying avoid Wolves until fixtures get better. Seems like they didn't pay attention to how they played last season. Wolves took 16 pts against top 6 opponents and 14 points against bottom 6 opponents. That is pretty extraordinary, but it wasn't accidental: Wolves are really good on the counter-attack, and against top 6 teams they are allowed space to do that. While the bottom teams park the bus, and then Wolves are way worse. That is why, last season, they beat Spurs (3 pts, with better goal diff), Chelsea(4 pts), Arsenal(4 pts) and Man United (4 pts), combined over their two league games. (Of course Europa League is a legitimate reason for steering clear of Wolves, but hard opposition isn't). » Read

  15. Bournemouth attack uninspiring in Sheffield United draw 11 days, 3 hours ago

    Yes. » Read

  16. Bournemouth attack uninspiring in Sheffield United draw 11 days, 4 hours ago

    Reasonably satisfied. Almost none of the expected best players in the price range 6-8 got lots of points, so even if I had picked someone else, I would not have got more points. But ofc monitoring which players will be best in that price-range, Pukki looked very good first game. Happy to hold Jota long time. Considering how long I will keep King. » Read

  17. Salah and Sterling expected to battle for Gameweek 2 captaincy 11 days, 4 hours ago

    Yep. Have Martial myself, think he was (and is) best United fpl player. Away to Wolves next week will be very interesting. OGS didn't exactly do well against them last season, so we will hopefully get some (positive!) answers then. » Read

  18. Salah and Sterling expected to battle for Gameweek 2 captaincy 11 days, 5 hours ago

    Are people seriously consdering Rashford? Had one big chance, which he scored, while Chelsea's defense was falling apart. Other than that, pretty quiet (plus the penalty). Also, still a lot of uncertainty about how good United is this year. Ofc penalty helps, but very much doubt he will take more than Pogba/Martial. I actually suspected Martial would be United's penalty taker this year: Pogba missed three in PL last season, and Martial has taken 6 penalties for United in his career, and missed only 1, so he has better conversion rate. Rashford took his first senior penalty against PSG in april. If Pogba misses another I would give penalties to martial (if I were OGS). I am a United-fan, so no one will be more happy if Rashford has a brilliant season, but Rashford has had so many runs of several games without goals, that I need more convincing than one game. » Read

  19. Salah and Sterling expected to battle for Gameweek 2 captaincy 11 days, 6 hours ago

    Very strange that people transfer out players just because they blanked. If King/Jota/Perez/similar would have scored they would have 4/5 points more and people wouldn't transfer them out. However, it seems that a lot of people are willing to voluntarily take -4 points, just because they didn't get +4. Strange reasoning: Seems like people think/feel that -4 from a hit is less bad than not getting +4 from a player. To compare with last year: King and Richarlison were 6.5 and returned 15/16 attacking returns over the season, and were considered decent options in that price range. That means that they will give attacking returns in less than 50% of gameweeks, and still be decent players. If you are considering removing a player now, then you should not have him in the first place (except Allison). Also note that the first gameweek is somewhat of an anomaly: All of the teams which will probably end 6-10 place didn't score: Chelsea, Wolves, Everton, Leicester, West Ham. A lot of the m… » Read

  20. Who is the best FPL captain for Gameweek 1? 14 days, 7 hours ago

    Any Everton fans with opinions on how much Coleman will play? Had decided on him, but Sidibé makes me uncertain. » Read