Fantasy Premier League – Player List Analysis – Budget Defenders

Following the launch of the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) game on Thursday morning, we’ve been busy assessing the player list to guide you through the options available for your initial 15-man squads. Having analysed the goalkeepers in our first article yesterday, we now turn our attentions to the defenders, beginning with the cut-price options.

Before we delve into what’s on offer, it’s worth bearing in mind a handful of new changes to the BPS system revealed on Thursday which will affect defenders. As discussed in Thursday’s article, a decrease in the BPS for pass completion should prove detrimental to defenders within teams that dominate possession and therefore have little trouble amassing 30 passes or more. As an example, the likes of Per Mertesacker, Laurent Koscielny and John Terry all broke 30 passes per match and registered a pass completion rate around the 89% mark.

It’s fair to say that rule change doesn’t affect the budget options nearly as much, given most are likely to play for teams who will play second fiddle for possession for the majority of the season.

On the upside, an alteration to the treatment of Clearances, Blocks and Interceptions (CBI) should boost the bonus point prospects of dominant central defenders in the season ahead. Essentially, a player needed to make three clearances, blocks or interceptions to earn a point towards BPS last season but now needs to make just two. Furthermore, players are now rewarded two BPS points for every net successful tackle this time around – double last season’s one point.

With that in mind, let’s cast an eye over the chief budget protagonists..

Having conceded 57 goals last season – the third worst defensive record last season – Aston Villa’s defensive assets are all priced at 4.5 and below, apart from Leandro Bacuna (5.0), who has been reclassified as a defender after being fielded as a right-back under Tim Sherwood. Kieran Richardson has also been listed as a defender this time around and comes in 0.5 less than the Dutchman, though managed just one assist last season.

With Ron Vlaar unlikely to sign a new contract at Villa Park, new signing Micah Richards could prove the pick of the Villa rearguard, although he looks set to feature at centre-back, with Alan Hutton battling Bacuna for the right-back berth. The likes of Philippe Senderos and Nathan Baker come in at 4.0 apiece but look unlikely to nail down a starting role, with Jores Okore and Ciaran Clark vying for the central spot alongside Richards. Amongst Villa defenders last season, Clark made the most CBI (277), whilst Hutton produced the most successful tackles (41) – a pattern that fits in with the idea that centre-halves will benefit more from the CBI change, whilst full-backs should be the winners for successful tackles.

Villa dovetail with Midlands rivals West Brom over the coming season, though in terms of defenders, only Jonas Olsson and Sebastian Pocognoli are available for 4.5. Bearing in mind they managed five and zero starts under Tony Pulis, they are unlikely targets for our squad.

All of Premier League new boys Bournemouth’s backline come in at 4.5 in FPL other than Adam Smith, who is 0.5 cheaper, but likely to only provide back-up at the south coast club. The choice for Fantasy managers looks to come between new club-record signing Tyrone Mings, who registered a goal and four assists for Ipswich last season, and should start at left-back, or, on the opposition flank, Simon Francis, who netted once and grabbed six assists last term. Sylvain Distin has joined from Everton and could partner club captain Tommy Elphick, which would mean Steve Cook, who scored five goals last season, finds himself on the periphery.

Looking back to last season in the top-flight, Burnley’s Jason Shackell produced 549 CBI – put into perspective, that was 76 more than all but one other defender, Swansea’s Ashley Williams. Clearly then, it will be worth monitoring the new boys’ options in the heart of their respective back-fours to ascertain the likeliest beneficiaries.

For those who are keen to rotate a Bournemouth defender given their favourable opening home fixtures (AVL, LEI, SUN, WAT), the Cherries, who registered 19 shut-outs last season, are paired with Watford over the 38 Gameweeks.

The Hornets only kept 15 clean sheets last season, so for some, carrying two defenders from newly-promoted teams could be considered something of a risk. For those who are considering this pairing, though, centre-back Sebastian Prodl, who joins from Werder Bremen after scoring three times in 19 starts for the German side during the 2014/15 campaign, looks the primary target.

The Austrian international, who carries a 4.5 price tag, looks a near certain starter, and has a slight edge over Gabriele Angella, who possesses a similar threat from set-pieces, having produced nine goals over the Hornets previous two campaigns, but looks less certain of his place in new boss Quique Sanchez Flores’ preferred starting XI. At this stage it appears unlikely that any of the defenders priced at 4.0 could be relied upon as regular starters, with Juan Carlos Paredes and new left-back Jose Holebas also at 4.5. With the centre-halves looking favourites due to CBI changes here, investment in Angella or the imposing Prodl could prove the best bet.

After keeping only two clean sheets in 18 matches under Alan Pardew, Crystal Palace defenders may not be very high on our pre-season shopping lists. We should have some Eagles regulars available at 4.5 in FPL, though, with full-back Joel Ward looking the most nailed on budget option, having made 37 starts last term. He has only managed one goal and three assists over the last two seasons, however, so attacking points could be at a premium. It’s worth noting that Ward won more tackles (80) than any defender in the league last season and should be a main benficiary from the above-mentioned BPS change.

Martin Kelly, Damien Delaney, Pape Souare and Brede Hangeland all come in at the same price as Ward, and after strong performances in Palace’s victories in their final two matches of last season against Liverpool and Swansea, it could be the Senegal international who establishes himself as the first-choice left-back and moves onto our radars. Delaney was Palace’s top defender for both CBI (322) and minutes per CBI (eight) over the previous campaign and could prove decent value in the heart of the back-four should he nail down a starting berth again.

Palace offer a perfect home and away rotation with Stoke over the course of the season, and perhaps surprisingly, we will also have some Potters starters available in the budget price bracket. Geoff Cameron, Phil Bardsley, Marc Wilson, Marc Muniesa and Philipp Wollscheid all set you back 4.5 in FPL, but with Mark Hughes reshuffling the back four regularly last season, it’s currently difficult to judge who will sit alongside skipper Ryan Shawcross in the back four.

Muniesa started the final three matches of last season at centre-back and could get the nod, while Cameron and Bardsley look set to battle it out for the right-back berth along with expected new signing Glen Johnson. The imminent departure of Asmir Begovic looks set to hand Jack Butland or Jakob Haugaard the number one jersey, though, and at 4.5 apiece, there are options between the posts for the Potters, too. Fantasy managers will be hoping the pre-season matches provide some clues to Hughes’ preferred starting line-up for the home clash with Liverpool in the opening Gameweek.

Leighton Baines is not travelling with his Everton team-mates for the pre-season trip to Singapore, with the 30-year-old England international still recovering from ankle surgery. That could see either Luke Garbutt or Brendan Galloway, both priced at 4.5 in FPL, deputise for the opening few weeks if Baines fails to recover in time, although the Toffees tough schedule after the opening day home encounter with Watford limits their appeal as short-term prospects.

The Leicester defence provided Fantasy managers with great value through the latter part of last season, with the Foxes clocking up five clean sheets in their final seven matches. Wes Morgan averaged six points per appearance over the Foxes final 11 fixtures last season, grabbing two goals and two assists, and looks a great option at 4.5, although Robert Huth, signed on a permanent deal from Stoke this summer, could rival the Leicester skipper for popularity. The Germany international tied with Morgan for goal attempts from inside the box (seven) over the final six Gameweeks last season, leading all defenders. Kasper Schmeichel’s save point potential between the sticks could sway some to lean towards the Dane, however, with Leicester offering a home/away rotation with Swansea for 38 Gameweeks.

Morgan was sixth overall for CBI (409) last term, though Huth’s average was quicker (one every 7.27 minutes compared to 8.45), suggesting the German could profit more with a security of starts at the King Power.

Like last season, all of Newcastle’s backline bar Daryl Janmaat are available for 4.5 or less in FPL. Fabricio Coloccini looks the safest route after chalking up a reasonable nine bonus points last season, while Steven Taylor, valued at 4.0, will jump onto our radars if he forces his way into new boss Steve McClaren’s plans after recovering from a ruptured achilles tendon.

Perhaps surprisingly, Taylor’s minutes per CBI (9.6) was quicker than any defensive team-mate, with Coloccini only fourth quickest (11.06 minutes) amongst their backline options.

The Magpies dovetail perfectly with north East rivals Sunderland over the 38 Gameweeks, so a rotation partnership of Coloccini and John O’Shea, for example, would set you back just 9.0. Elsewhere at the Stadium of Light, Sebastian Coates, signed on a permanent deal from Liverpool earlier this month, was a crucial part of Sunderland’s renaissance under Dick Advocaat, with the Black Cats keeping three clean sheets in their final four matches last term, and could rival O’Shea as the strongest option.

Billy Jones established himself as the first-choice right back under the former Rangers boss, but Adam Matthews, signed from Celtic, will compete with the former West Brom man for a starting berth. Matthews served up two goals and 12 assists in the last couple of years at Parkhead and comes in cheaper than fellow full-back Patrick van Aanholt, though some may still prefer to draft in Costel Pantilimon at 5.0, due to the new change in BPS rules which benefit his save point potential.

In terms of CBI, though, Coates’ average of 8.99 was some way quicker than Brown (11) and O’Shea (12.06), which could boost the Uruguayan’s prospects via Bonus Points.

Revisiting the promoted sides prospects, Norwich’s defenders look nicely priced ahead of the new campaign.

Martin Olsson and Sebastian Bassong appear to have the most upside, although the former could miss the start of the season after undergoing shoulder surgery this summer. Bassong looks a sure starter at centre-back and can provide a threat from set-pieces, scoring three goals and bagging two assists during the 2012/13 campaign, although he did fail to produce attacking returns in the following season, when the Canaries were relegated. John Ruddy’s save point potential may be difficult to ignore between the sticks here.

Southampton rotate with Norwich over the course of the season, though it seems unlikely that Maya Yoshida or Cuco Martina (4.5) will nail down a regular role. Ronald Koeman is likely to acquire a high calibre centre-half after failing to bring Toby Alderweireld back to St. Mary’s. Left-back Matt Targett could be a bargain short-term prospect at 4.0, with Ryan Bertrand set to miss the start of the campaign with a knee injury – that depends on whether Koeman deploys the versatile Martina in this role.

Similarly, Spurs and Swansea look unlikely to provide us with any regular starters at 4.5 or less, with the likes of Ben Davies and Angel Rangel behind Danny Rose and Kyle Naughton respectively in the pecking order.

The same could be said over at West Ham. James Collins, a firm favourite under Sam Allardyce, seems unlikely to feature as much this time around, given that Juventus centre-back Angelo Ogbonna signed on at Upton Park yesterday. A new right-back could also be high on Slaven Bilic’s wishlist, so Joey O’Brien will probably only provide cover under the Croatian. Youngsters Reece Burke and Reece Oxford, both priced at 4.0 in FPL, could be worth monitoring, particularly the latter, who lined up in centre midfield in the Europa League first round first leg clash against FC Lusitans last week.