FPL Analysis – BPS Changes – Initial Thoughts

This was no ordinary Fantasy Premier League (FPL) launch. The usual noise and bluster, the regular scramble for team IDs and early “Rate My Team” requests, was magnified by some far-reaching changes that gave us plenty to consider on the opening day.

While we’ve already presented some initial views on the three new “Chips”, the more subtle changes to the Bonus Point System (BPS) may have slipped under the radar.

For the uninitiated, the BPS system is the calculation used to govern the award of FPL bonus points – the points allocated to the “best” players in any given match.

The system uses a variety of Opta data which measure player actions on the pitch and allocates a score to each action – either positive or negative. These scores are then totalled with the top three ranked scores earning bonus points.

Today’s launch revealed some slight tweaks to this BPS scoring system which will have some impact on how the Bonus Points are allocated for the coming season.

We’ve already been running a Hot Topic on the matter throughout the afternoon but, for those who have missed this additional update, here’s the skinny…

BPS Decrease For Pass Completion
2 BPS points awarded for 70 to 79% pass completion (at least 30 passes made) (instead of 3)
4 BPS points awarded for 80 to 89% pass completion (at least 30 passes made) (instead of 6)
6 BPS points awarded for 90%+ pass completion (at least 30 passes made) (instead of 9)

BPS Increase For Clearances, Blocks and Interceptions (CBI)
1 BPS point is now awarded for every 2 CBI (instead of every 3).

BPS Increase For Tackles (net)
2 BPS points awarded for every Successful Tackle (net) (instead of 1 BPS point).

BPS Increase for Saves
2 BPS Points awarded for every Save (instead of 1 BPS point).

First Impressions

We will delve into the potential impact of these changes in more detail via a Members article. However, immediately there are some obvious considerations served up.

For starters, goalkeepers will receive double the BPS rewards for the saves they make. This will have clear ramifications, making shot-stopping performances all the more likely to earn bonus recognition. In turn, this could reduce the Bonus Point appeal of defenders in sides that concede shots on target.

Undoubtedly, this will compound the clamour for cheaper goalkeeping options, with the likes of Costel Pantilimon and the custodians in the promoted sides boosted in our thinking.

Pantilmon may even have provided the catalyst for this change.

In Sunderland’s 0-0 draw with Arsenal at the Emirates in Gameweek 37, the Romanian put on a superb one-man display of defiance, making eight saves on the night. He failed to win a single Bonus Point.

Instead, the BPS favoured Arsenal’s defenders who, in truth, were more intent on bursting forward in desperate search of a winning goal than keeping Sunderland at bay.

Indeed, the reduction in BPS for pass completion may also have been considered as a result of this very match.

The likes of Laurent Koscielny and Per Mertesacker were promoted in the BPS that night, not least by their pass completion – that pair, along with Hector Bellerin, all earned nine BPS for passing. Pantilmon earned just eight BPS from his saves.

Arsenal’s defenders will certainly require some further examination in the light of these changes. Both Mertesacker and Koscielny easily break 30 passes per match and both earned 89% pass completion over the season: clearly they will take a BPS hit as a result of these changes.

While they will take the hit there, the centre-backs will at least benefit from the hike in BPS for Clearances, Blocks and Interceptions (CBI).

Dominant centre-backs may now come to the fore once again, having spent a season somewhat in the shade of the raiding full-back in Bonus Point terms.

Full-backs will be somewhat boosted by the increase in BPS awarded for net Tackles Won but the suspicion is that this will not level out the CBI increase and will result in full-backs, particularly those who were also reliant on completed passes, drop below their centre-back team-mates in the BPS pecking order.

There are, of course, implications for attacking players. However, while the likes Yaya Toure and Cesc Fabregas have earned handsome BPS returns via their passing prowess, it’s fair to say that there are other major factors at play when calculating their match tallies: goals and assists will remain king.

Just hours after absorbing the BPS changes, our impression is that it is clearly defenders and, of course, goalkeepers, who will feel the real impact of these tweaks.

However, this is a subject that will be treated to far more conjecture and insight in the next few weeks, not least on these pages.