Last week I took a look at Captaincy Options for Gameweek 9 taking into account odds, fixture and form.
For the third week in a row this method correctly predicted the best captaincy option among the names flagged up, with Romelu Lukaku’s assist proving enough to prevail in what was admittedly a poor week for many armband favourites.
REFINING THE ODDS
For this method I take six popular captaincy options and rank them 1-6 according to their likelihood to score according to the bookies. I then give the same 1-6 ranking according to the difficulty of the fixture, which is worked out using goals conceded, big chances conceded and goal attempts in box conceded from the last four games.
I then apply the same ranking to form, looking at points per game, goals and assists over the last four games.
I understand that the odds segment can sometimes heavily outweigh others (e.g. Aguero is always likely to be low odds for scoring) so the fixtures and form elements could be used separately if you so wished.
With that in mind let’s take a look at Gameweek 10’s results.
Odds
| Rank | Player | Odds | Implied Probability % |
| 1. | Ibrahimovic | 17/20 | 54.05 |
| 2. | Aguero | 10/11 | 52.38 |
| 3.5 | Sanchez | 19/20 | 51.28 |
| 3.5 | Lukaku | 19/20 | 51.28 |
| 5. | Costa | EVS | 50.00 |
| 6. | Coutinho | 17/10 | 37.04 |
Fixture
| Rank | Player | Fixture | Goals Conceded | Big Chances Conceded | Goal Attempts in box conceded | Total |
| 1. | Ibrahimovic | (BUR) | 5 | 7 | 51 | 63 |
| 2. | Sanchez | (sun) | 7 | 4 | 47 | 58 |
| 3. | Aguero | (wba) | 5 | 7 | 40 | 52 |
| 4.5 | Lukaku | (WHM) | 4 | 8 | 34 | 46 |
| 4.5 | Coutinho | (cpl) | 7 | 7 | 32 | 46 |
| 6. | Costa | (sot) | 2 | 2 | 26 | 30 |
Form
| Rank | Player | PPG | Goals | Assists |
| 1. | Coutinho | 7.5 | 2 | 2 |
| 2. | Sanchez | 6.25 | 1 | 2 |
| 3. | Costa | 6 | 2 | 1 |
| 4. | Lukaku | 5.75 | 2 | 1 |
| 5. | Aguero | 3.75 | 2 | 0 |
| 6. | Ibrahimovic | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
Results
| Rank | Player | Odds | Fixture | Form | Total | Total Rank without odds factored in |
| 1. | Sanchez | 3.5 | 2 | 2 | 7.5 | 1st |
| 2. | Ibrahimovic | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 3rd |
| 3. | Aguero | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 4th |
| 4. | Coutinho | 6 | 4.5 | 1 | 11.5 | 2nd |
| 5. | Lukaku | 3.5 | 4.5 | 4 | 12 | 5th |
| 6. | Costa | 5 | 6 | 3 | 14 | 6th |
Taking odds, fixture and form into account, Alexis Sanchez is the most likely to deliver attacking returns this Gameweek with Zlatan Ibrahimovic a close second. Sanchez also leads the way without odds factored into the equation too.
Those who have remained faithful to Ibrahimovic may consider him for the armband as Burnley top the charts for goal attempts in the box conceded.
Diego Costa sits bottom in both rankings as Southampton’s defensive resolve continues with an impressively low two goals conceded in the last four gameweeks.
7 years, 6 months agoThree out of three success rate is something we can't ignore. You're starting to persuade me to go for Sanchez now for (c).
Thanks for posting. Looks great with the tables. 🙂