A little over a year ago, I took a look at clean sheets and the final gameweek, identifying the possibility of a “gameweek 38” effect. In a nutshell, the data suggested that in comparison to the season as a whole, the likelihood of a clean sheet may decrease in the season’s final gameweek.
Supporting this hypothesis, we found that the number of gameweek 38 clean sheets was less than the weekly average across eight of the last nine seasons (again, this was before last season wrapped up). Indeed, as we saw in last year’s article, when we calculated the average drop in clean sheets across the nine prior seasons, we saw almost a 24% decline in clean sheets in the final gameweek compared to the season average.
However, when the dust settled last year, the final gameweek failed to follow the pattern; we saw no less than seven clean sheets recorded in the final gameweek of 2009-10 – a figure above the season average of 5.76 per gameweek coming into the final gameweek. While last season’s results might cause some to dismiss the theory, the more rational response is that the numbers show trends but do not make guarantees. With this in mind, and even with last season’s (arguably atypical) results in the mix, the final gameweek has still produced a comparatively low number of clean sheets in eight of the last ten seasons.
To update the chart in last season’s article, the 2009-10 season and the averages from 2000-01 through 2009-10 are as follows (with the data on each of the other seasons listed in last year’s article):
| Season | Avg/GW | GW38 | % Difference |
| 2010-11 | 5.03 | ?? | ?? |
| 2009-10 | 5.82 | 7 | 20.36% |
| —— | ——– | ———— | |
| 2000-01 thru 2009-10 | 5.93 | 4.80 | -19.01% |
Looking to this year, and using data from the statistics page on the FPL site, the following stands out:
– If you’ve felt like clean sheets are hard to come by this season, it hasn’t been your imagination. The low mark for clean sheets during the last ten seasons was 2002-03, when there were 206 clean sheets, or an average of 5.42. The current total is 186 clean sheets, or a measly 5.03 clean sheets per gameweek.
– While Manchester United recorded the most clean sheets last season with 19, that tally was low and we have typically seen the leader get into the 20’s in most recent seasons. By contrast, Manchester City will finish this season with the most clean sheets, currently at only 17. The drop off this season becomes even more apparent as we go down the leaderboard, as only seven teams have reached double digits in clean sheets thus far (MCY, CHE, MNU, FUL, LIV, ARS, SUN). Not only have there been fewer clean sheets, but the reduction in these team totals has made it more difficult to predict where the clean sheets may fall.
– Goals for the season are up, again. Through 37 gameweeks, 1,031 goals have been scored in 2010-11, which amounts to 2.787 goals per game (by both teams combined). The total last year was the high mark for the last decade at 1,053 goals. With 10 games still to be played, that mark should be surpassed later today.
If you feel like betting against the trend, stack up on the defenders and take comfort in the knowledge that there has been one scoreless draw in three of the past four years. But, if you’re playing the odds, this is probably not the time for point hits to bring in defenders and, perhaps even more so than usual, this is the time to give preference to defenders playing out of position.
