The Gameweek 38 Effect

Defenders have been unfashionable all season. Heavy-hitting strikers and midfielders have continued to punish back fours and eat away at clean sheet tallies week after week and only Villa’s Richard Dunne and United’s Patrice Evra has enjoyed sustained investment from Fantasy Managers.  The end of season scramble for relegation and European places can turn form and logic on its head at this time of year but is there a “Gameweek 38 effect” and will it produce a last minute swing in favor of defenses come Sunday or further compound the defensive woes we’ve seen all season?

With relegation already resolved this season and there being no more than four teams with games that are truly going to matter in Gameweek 38 (potentially reduced to only two teams if Tottenham beat Manchester City on Wednesday), I’ve taken a look at whether there is a “Gameweek 38 effect” on clean sheets.  Although the question of “why” this is occurring may remain unresolved, a quick look at the scores from the final day games throughout this decade reveal some interesting facts and make a strong case for keeping your focus and investment on the attack….

The following is a season-by-season look at the average number of clean sheets per week, the number of clean sheets in Gameweek 38, and the difference between Gameweek 38 and the season average:

Some observations:

-  During the nine seasons from 2000-01 to 2008-09, there were an average of 5.94 clean sheets per week during the entire season.  However, there were only 4.56 clean sheets on average during Gameweek 38, a whopping 23.29% reduction from the season average.

-  Last season (2008-09) is the only season in the decade when the number of clean sheets in Gameweek 38 exceeded the weekly average for that season.  In each of the prior eight seasons, the number of clean sheets during Gameweek 38 was lower than the season average.

- Conversely (and not shown in the chart), while clean sheets have been down in Gameweek 38, the number of goals regularly exceeded the season average.  Over the 9-year period, an average of 29.89 goals were scored in gw38, which is a healthy 17.04% higher than the average of 25.54 goals per week scored during the entirety of these nine seasons.  Inversely mirroring the clean sheet tallies as one would expect, the only season this decade when the Gameweek 38 goals were less than the season average was last season, 2008-09.

The foregoing supports the hypothesis that there is a Gameweek 38 effect — and it is not kind to defenders. 

As the chart above shows, the current season is shaping up to be one of the lower clean sheet tallies of the decade.  It’s been seven years since there has been a season without at least one team getting 20+ clean sheets.  No team will hit that mark this term.  And, at a current count of 212 clean sheets through Monday, 2009-10 has so far only surpassed the 206 clean sheets of 2002-03 and will end up ranking in the bottom half for this category for the decade.  Six Gameweek 38 clean sheets would go against the grain and beat this season’s weekly average, and five or even four Gameweek 38 clean sheets will be consistent with what has occurred in recent years.  Similarly, with 1019 total goals scored through the completion of Monday’s games, the 2009-10 season has (with 12 games still to be played) already surpassed the previous high mark for this decade of 1012 goals scored during the 2003-04 season.  The conclusion appears simple then – this hasn’t been the year to bet on defensive points in the first place, and Gameweek 38 is not the week to change matters.

Of course, you’re stuck playing three defenders in the Fantasy Premier League game, but there is little reason to play more this week.  More than ever, the out of position defenders should get priority in Gameweek 38 since that may be the best, if not only, way to get points from defenders.