[sbu_large_image] Statistics
22 May 2011 474 comments
da Beeeez da Beeeez
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A little over a year ago, I took a look at clean sheets and the final gameweek, identifying the possibility of a “gameweek 38” effect. In a nutshell, the data suggested that in comparison to the season as a whole, the likelihood of a clean sheet may decrease in the season’s final gameweek.

Supporting this hypothesis, we found that the number of gameweek 38 clean sheets was less than the weekly average across eight of the last nine seasons (again, this was before last season wrapped up). Indeed, as we saw in last year’s article, when we calculated the average drop in clean sheets across the nine prior seasons, we saw almost a 24% decline in clean sheets in the final gameweek compared to the season average.

However, when the dust settled last year, the final gameweek failed to follow the pattern; we saw no less than seven clean sheets recorded in the final gameweek of 2009-10 – a figure above the season average of 5.76 per gameweek coming into the final gameweek. While last season’s results might cause some to dismiss the theory, the more rational response is that the numbers show trends but do not make guarantees. With this in mind, and even with last season’s (arguably atypical) results in the mix, the final gameweek has still produced a comparatively low number of clean sheets in eight of the last ten seasons.

To update the chart in last season’s article, the 2009-10 season and the averages from 2000-01 through 2009-10 are as follows (with the data on each of the other seasons listed in last year’s article):

SeasonAvg/GWGW38% Difference
2010-115.03????
2009-105.82720.36%
————–————
2000-01 thru 2009-105.934.80-19.01%

Looking to this year, and using data from the statistics page on the FPL site, the following stands out:

– If you’ve felt like clean sheets are hard to come by this season, it hasn’t been your imagination.  The low mark for clean sheets during the last ten seasons was 2002-03, when there were 206 clean sheets, or an average of 5.42.  The current total is 186 clean sheets, or a measly 5.03 clean sheets per gameweek.

– While Manchester United recorded the most clean sheets last season with 19, that tally was low and we have typically seen the leader get into the 20’s in most recent seasons.  By contrast, Manchester City will finish this season with the most clean sheets, currently at only 17.  The drop off this season becomes even more apparent as we go down the leaderboard, as only seven teams have reached double digits in clean sheets thus far (MCY, CHE, MNU, FUL, LIV, ARS, SUN).  Not only have there been fewer clean sheets, but the reduction in these team totals has made it more difficult to predict where the clean sheets may fall.

– Goals for the season are up, again.  Through 37 gameweeks, 1,031 goals have been scored in 2010-11, which amounts to 2.787 goals per game (by both teams combined).  The total last year was the high mark for the last decade at 1,053 goals.  With 10 games still to be played, that mark should be surpassed later today.

If you feel like betting against the trend, stack up on the defenders and take comfort in the knowledge that there has been one scoreless draw in three of the past four years.  But, if you’re playing the odds, this is probably not the time for point hits to bring in defenders and, perhaps even more so than usual, this is the time to give preference to defenders playing out of position.

da Beeeez Recognizing that it's better to be lucky than good, da Beeeez often sleeps through the early games on the weekends...

474 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. The Gambler.
    • 16 Years
    14 years, 9 months ago

    So is the feeling that Kolarov will start?

    I've got Luiz/Barid/Kolarov/Walker/Simpson and dont want to take a hit...........

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    1. everyday, i'm shufflin…
      • 15 Years
      14 years, 9 months ago

      almost the same i have..

      in your case, i think Kolarov - Walker - Simpson will start.

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  2. sy
    • 15 Years
    14 years, 9 months ago

    Torres starting is bad news for Drogba owners

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    1. Louis Van Balls
      • 15 Years
      14 years, 9 months ago

      ...and for Chelsea supporters.

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    2. Locarno
      • 15 Years
      14 years, 9 months ago

      Drogba won't play. Buggu-mark it.

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      1. Syd.
        • 16 Years
        14 years, 9 months ago

        he wont play 90 minutes. buggu-mark that 😉

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        1. Locarno
          • 15 Years
          14 years, 9 months ago

          He won't play any minutes. Feel it in my bones.

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      2. Boom!!!
        • 15 Years
        14 years, 9 months ago

        ok 😉

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      3. sy
        • 15 Years
        14 years, 9 months ago

        Nobody think Drogba will start on the right wing?

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  3. mouldy_uk
    • 15 Years
    14 years, 9 months ago

    2nd in my league, chasing a 28 point lead.

    How about:

    NZog for Maxi
    Tevez for Odem
    Berba for Rooney
    (8 Point Hit)

    ??

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  4. TorresMagic™
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 16 Years
    14 years, 9 months ago

    90 minutes to go......

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    1. The Gambler.
      • 16 Years
      14 years, 9 months ago

      Its been a quick season.............long time till we're 90 mins from GW1 !!!

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      1. TorresMagic™
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 16 Years
        14 years, 9 months ago

        Exactly, time for a nice break. 🙂

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    2. RogerC
      • 16 Years
      14 years, 9 months ago

      Hi TM. I keep a close eye on you. You did great recently, rising to top 1k. Good luck for this last GW.

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      1. TorresMagic™
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 16 Years
        14 years, 9 months ago

        Thanks mate, only care about mini league this week. Red arrow is fine as long as I win. Good luck to you also. 🙂

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        1. RogerC
          • 16 Years
          14 years, 9 months ago

          🙂

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  5. jagz
    • 15 Years
    14 years, 9 months ago

    basically ward or baines?

    and i have o'hara

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    1. RogerC
      • 16 Years
      14 years, 9 months ago

      Tough one. Always go with the one who is more expensive.

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  6. BennyDizzle
    • 14 Years
    14 years, 9 months ago

    I have a current team of:
    Hart, Robinson
    Kolerov, Huth, Luiz, Vidic, Cahill
    Nani, Modric, Kuyt, Adam, N’Zog
    VP, Sturridge, Odemwingie

    0.0 in bank, 1 free transfer and 5 pts behind leader of minileague
    Any Help Is Welcome
    🙂

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  7. seanie3
    • 14 Years
    14 years, 9 months ago

    Foster or begovic this week..

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    1. Zabi
      • 14 Years
      14 years, 9 months ago

      gone with begovic, brum look shattered to me

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  8. Holy See
    • 15 Years
    14 years, 9 months ago

    Good luck to y'all today, thanks to scouts/contributors/posters for making this site occasionally bearable. C..c..can't d..o compliments gottverdammt! Thankee most kindly, great site, hours of fun for all the family. (C)Berba for me, would take 8pt hit to bring in Tevez, just cannae bring meself to do it. Just cannae do it cap'n! I'm goin out shoppin so I won't be able to do anything daft at 11.29. Easy today now Carlos.

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  9. rrcmc
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    14 years, 9 months ago

    Will DROGBA play?
    Last game for Chelsea - wont he want o go out on a high?

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    1. everyday, i'm shufflin…
      • 15 Years
      14 years, 9 months ago

      Torres starts.. Drogba may play part.

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  10. markieffm
    • 15 Years
    14 years, 9 months ago

    Still not sure what to do:

    There’s no way I can top my league but ican get £15 for winning this month. I am currently only a few points off doing this but need to make changes so ican field 11.

    How’s this for an 8 point hit?

    Chico>Berbs – VDV>Nzog – Djourou>Kaboul

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  11. bring_on _the_fantasy
    • 15 Years
    14 years, 9 months ago

    Which one to put on bench?

    Ivanovic lolorov hagaland luiz?

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    1. Mr. Tambourine Man
      • 15 Years
      14 years, 9 months ago

      Luiz won't play so that makes it easy for you.

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  12. Out4GoodBehavior
    • 14 Years
    14 years, 9 months ago

    Captain Van Persie or Captain Tevez? thats my dilema

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    1. Torres76
      • 16 Years
      14 years, 9 months ago

      Its 50...50 but it slightly swaying towards Carlos

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      1. @Team Shark FC
        • 15 Years
        14 years, 9 months ago

        y dun captain berba??

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  13. seanie3
    • 14 Years
    14 years, 9 months ago

    foster (begovic)

    Baines, Cahill, Foley
    Kuyt, VDV, Silva, Adam
    Berbatov(c), rvp, carroll

    Subs Barton, luiz, djourou

    any recommendations on a transfer or two here please.

    Have no free transfers, already done rooney to berbatov

    looking to bring in nzogbia for vdv (is he defo injured) for a 4 point hit.

    should I also take another 4 pont hit on carroll for tevez or should I just bench carroll and play Barton instead

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  14. Giggsy
    • 14 Years
    14 years, 9 months ago

    Any word on VDV playing?

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    1. tosey
      • 16 Years
      14 years, 9 months ago

      hes out

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    2. Mr. Tambourine Man
      • 15 Years
      14 years, 9 months ago

      Nothing since he declared himself out. Almost certain he won't play. I've transfered him out.

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    3. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      14 years, 9 months ago

      He's out.

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    4. Locarno
      • 15 Years
      14 years, 9 months ago

      He tweeted the other day, saying he was out.

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    5. Denis Tueart on the wing
      • 15 Years
      14 years, 9 months ago

      Yes his is out and Younis Kaboul will be playing a midfield role, bulldozing anything that gets in his way and scoring a hat-trick. Hope this helps 😀

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  15. jagz
    • 15 Years
    14 years, 9 months ago

    how does this look?

    hart
    baines, dawson, r taylor
    kuyt, n'zog, adam, o'hara
    berb(C), tevez, rvp
    bench - walters, lolarov, huth

    ?

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  16. Sambar
    • 16 Years
    14 years, 9 months ago

    3 defenders out of walker Luiz Hangeland Smalling G.Johnson

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    1. Mr. Tambourine Man
      • 15 Years
      14 years, 9 months ago

      Walker, Hangeland, Glen. Luiz won't play and if Smalling plays he certainly won't keep a CS.

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      1. Sambar
        • 16 Years
        14 years, 9 months ago

        Thanks! Yeah attacking points look possible with that defence

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  17. mouldy_uk
    • 15 Years
    14 years, 9 months ago

    I've got Huth, Djourou and Luiz who I think probably wont play, is it worth spending 4 points to replace one of them?

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    1. Mr. Tambourine Man
      • 15 Years
      14 years, 9 months ago

      Nah, the chances of any replacement getting more than 4 is unlikely. Unless you've got a good lead in your leagues, I'd leave it.

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    2. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      14 years, 9 months ago

      Not really. New player needs 4 to come out even.

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    3. In Like Flynn.
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 15 Years
      14 years, 9 months ago

      I'm not sure a 4pt hit for one week is worth it,it would have to be a CS or assist at least to make it worthwhile,and a full 60mins or more.For one week I'd rather risk being a player short.

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    4. Sambar
      • 16 Years
      14 years, 9 months ago

      If your chasing yeah, maybe Luiz>Alex

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  18. Torres76
    • 16 Years
    14 years, 9 months ago

    I have the dreaded defence as follows:

    Smalling, Kolorov, Huth (Coleman, Luiz)

    1. Is that the right order?
    2. What about the subs?

    I dont feel like selling any of the above for a points hit

    Cheers to all

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    1. Mr. Tambourine Man
      • 15 Years
      14 years, 9 months ago

      For me, I'd start Coleman over Smalling.

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      1. cheezymouse
        • 15 Years
        14 years, 9 months ago

        similar boat... don't think Huth or Luiz will start tho' so you're prob ok from an ordering perspective. Don't take the hit - defence has been a lottery this season. Good luck!

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  19. Taff
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    14 years, 9 months ago

    With Silva currently starting and a bench of:
    VdV, Huth and Luiz
    would you say a 4 point hit is worth taking to ensure that I have 11 players if Silva doesn't start?

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  20. Super-Hans
    • 16 Years
    14 years, 9 months ago

    I haven't taken many hits this season, but would an 8 point hit be to much if I'm chasing a 16p lead? Those hits would be something in the line of; Odemwingie, Zamora and Fabregas/VdV out, Tevez, Berbatov and Sessegnon/9.1mid?

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    1. Mr. Tambourine Man
      • 15 Years
      14 years, 9 months ago

      I'd say if you're chasing then you may have to take a hit or two, although a 16 point lead is only a matter of a good captain choice.

      Paying to ship out your dead players should be worth it, depending on whether they guy you are chasing has them and/or will be getting in Berbs or Tevez. Also depends how far off playing 11 you are.

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  21. Eatspressure
    • 15 Years
    14 years, 9 months ago

    The main diferential the guy chasing me has is bent, however I would rather buy Fletcher/Tev (already have berb and rvp)

    just buy Bent and be done with it?

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    1. Eatspressure
      • 15 Years
      14 years, 9 months ago

      i already have Young too

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    2. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      14 years, 9 months ago

      With a lead of 40, yes.

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      1. Eatspressure
        • 15 Years
        14 years, 9 months ago

        if you already had Young?

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        1. TorresMagic™
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 16 Years
          14 years, 9 months ago

          Young isn't Bent.

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          1. Eatspressure
            • 15 Years
            14 years, 9 months ago

            but its villa overload and maybe he is!

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    3. Torres76
      • 16 Years
      14 years, 9 months ago

      Unless he has sold Bent dude for Carlos then you could be stuffed if Carlos goes mad!

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      1. Eatspressure
        • 15 Years
        14 years, 9 months ago

        why would he sell Bent in the form he is in and at home last game of season? That would be mad off him no?

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        1. Mr. Tambourine Man
          • 15 Years
          14 years, 9 months ago

          I agree, but many have.

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  22. Giggsy
    • 14 Years
    14 years, 9 months ago

    which is a better move?

    Bring in Fletcher for Odemwingie ?

    or

    Adam for VDV?

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    1. Eatspressure
      • 15 Years
      14 years, 9 months ago

      1

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  23. Torres76
    • 16 Years
    14 years, 9 months ago

    Morning all

    I lead my work lead by 50 points and player in 2nd place has team below – Diffentials in CAPS:

    Kuyt, Adam, VDV, NANI (Ferguson)
    Rvp, BENT, Odem

    My midfield is

    Adam, Kuyt, LAMPS, SILVA (Maxi)
    RVP, SUAREZ, Odem

    With Odem not playing im thinking:

    1. Odem > Tevez
    2. Lamps > Nzogbia (or is there anyone else I can pick??? – maybe Modric) ......Must sell Frank to raise funds for Tevez transfer

    3. Suarez > Berba (extra idea - 4 point hit)

    Total 8 point hit.

    What do you all think of my transfers?

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    1. bring_on _the_fantasy
      • 15 Years
      14 years, 9 months ago

      It 50 points mate ?!?!

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      1. cheezymouse
        • 15 Years
        14 years, 9 months ago

        +49

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  24. Vengeful_Bunny
    • 15 Years
    14 years, 9 months ago

    Is it worth a 4 point hit to bring Tevez in for Carroll?
    7 points clear in mini-league.

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    1. Torres76
      • 16 Years
      14 years, 9 months ago

      Yes....defo...and make in Captain if you dont have RVP

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      1. Vengeful_Bunny
        • 15 Years
        14 years, 9 months ago

        Gonna captain Berbatov to cover rival.
        Got RVP, Berba, Adam, Yaya, Silva, Lamps and N'Zogbia(Will cause 4 point hit).
        Gonna leave Silva on the bench.
        Thanks

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  25. bring_on _the_fantasy
    • 15 Years
    14 years, 9 months ago

    Captain berba or nzog. Sorely tempted to go nzog! But u never know.....could be time for 5 goal berba to appear!!

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    1. mouldy_uk
      • 15 Years
      14 years, 9 months ago

      I would go for Berba, home to a leaky defence and should get the minutes.

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  26. Demí
    • 15 Years
    14 years, 9 months ago

    Good luck in your ML tm. Rootin for ya

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    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      14 years, 9 months ago

      Thanks mate, 3rd & 4th have traded. 4th went -8. I am going for a -12.

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  27. mouldy_uk
    • 15 Years
    14 years, 9 months ago

    NZog for Maxi
    Tevez for Odem
    Berba for Rooney

    Worth 8 points?

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    1. bring_on _the_fantasy
      • 15 Years
      14 years, 9 months ago

      I'd just do the 2nd two for 4 point hit. Maxi could do well again

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  28. Raheem's perm
    • 15 Years
    14 years, 9 months ago

    Didn't the scouts mention something in the podcast about a mini league for the last week where point hits don't count? If so does anyone have the code please?

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    1. Mr. Tambourine Man
      • 15 Years
      14 years, 9 months ago

      It's call the last chance saloon. If you go back through the articles on the home page there was one on it with a link that joins you to it.

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      1. Raheem's perm
        • 15 Years
        14 years, 9 months ago

        Cheers

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  29. Malcolm Tucker for England …
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    14 years, 9 months ago

    Is there any mileage in picking scholes, probably his last game?

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  30. bring_on _the_fantasy
    • 15 Years
    14 years, 9 months ago

    Go nzog mate! Nani prob won't play

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