[sbu_large_image] Spot the Differential
19 December 2015 2164 comments
James Barnes James Barnes
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Our Saturday morning scour for some overlooked Fantasy alternatives brings a couple of midfielders who’ve shone in seasons gone by, plus a £30 million Argentine who is finally beginning to blossom in north London….

Gylfi Sigurdsson

In light of the fact that Bafetimbi Gomis and Eder mustered zero goals and two shots on target between them in the four matches prior to Garry Monk’s dismissal, caretaker manager Alan Curtis elected to switch things up for Swansea’s road tie against Manchester City, fielding Gylfi Sigurdsson (6.5) as a false nine attacker. Emboldened by that vote of confidence from the interim boss, the Iceland international turned out an impactful performance that portends a return to form.

Encouragingly, Sigurdsson chalked up more shots on target (four) than any midfielder last Gameweek – to put that into perspective, Gomis managed the same number of accurate attempts in his previous 10 outings. Moreover, the former Tottenham Hotspur recruit ranked joint-second for attempts (five) and shots inside the box (three), suggesting a change of manager could see him return to the form that served up 154 points in the previous campaign.

Considering how well he fared against Manuel Pellegrini’s squad, Sigurdsson will be hoping to retain the same role for Swansea’s upcoming home tie against West Ham United – furnishing us with an out-of-position prospect.

Although the Hammers have recorded back-to-back shut-outs, only Norwich City and Stoke City (both 94) have conceded more shots inside the box (90) on their travels, and they place fifth with regards to big chances surrendered (16). Furthermore, the Irons chart second for shots inside the box conceded (41) and joint-third for big chances allowed (11) over the last four Gameweeks, which suggests that Sigurdsson could punish their defence as he prepares for the first of four home fixtures in the next six.

Marouane Fellaini

Rendered a peripheral figure by Manchester United’s depth of midfield talent, Marouane Fellaini (6.2) has been afforded consecutive starts by Louis van Gaal due to a recent batch of injuries. The Belgian vindicated his manager’s decision by bagging United’s only goal over those two fixtures in last week’s 2-1 loss at Bournemouth.

Since the combative Fellaini’s number was called in Gameweek 15, no midfielder has amassed as many shots inside the box (eight) or penalty-box touches (18) – given that Man United place top for possession in the final third (70.3%) across the whole season but joint-seventh for penalty-box touches (424), this is a salient point. In addition, Fellaini ranked second for attempts (nine) and joint-second for shots on target (four) across that stretch.

Man United are winless in three matches but next face a Canaries outfit that ranks bottom for clean sheets (zero) and big chances conceded (42) this term. Further bolstering the case for the hosts’ out-of-sorts attack, Norwich place joint-top for shots inside the box conceded (94) and top for big chances conceded (24) on the road. Indeed, they’re one of only two teams (the other being Swansea) that’s failed to card a single shut-out away from home turf.

Erik Lamela

Mauricio Pochettino recently described Erik Lamela as a “more confident and a different player from two years ago”.

Such praise arrived in response to Lamela’s stunning Europa League hat-trick over Monaco earlier this month – his first for the club and the latest stepping stone in his progress towards justifying the reported £30 million paid by Spurs to AS Roma.

Clearly, Lamela still has some way to go to fulfilling that promise. Similarly, in Fantasy terms, the Argentine has only really hinted at his true potential.

The Monaco goals proved his ability to explode points, whilst his underlying statistics this season more than hint that he is in the ascendency.

Lamela is adopting more threatening positions, enjoying 2.7 touches in the penalty area this term compared to 1.9 last season. This has translated to an effort on goal every 48.5 minutes this season compared to 63.8 in 2014/15. Similarly, he is creating chances for team-mates more frequently, showing a key pass every 29.7 minutes, up from 40.4 minutes last term.

Priced at 6.8 in the FPL and part of a Spurs side that’s scored just twice in their last three outings, there will hardly be a clamour to acquire Lamela’s services in a crowded midfield arena.

However, there’s no denying his progress under Pochettino and, with the player himself showing confidence in a Spurs revival at Southampton this weekend, he could represent a worthy gamble.

Certainly Lamela and Spurs appear to arrive at St Mary’s at a good time: Ronald Foeman’s side have kept just one clean sheet in their last six home ties and, over the season, have conceded 18 big chances in home matches – only West Brom have allowed more.

  1. UnitednationsXI
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    would you start yaya ahaed of any of the following:

    Ozil mahrez hazard mane
    vardy kanu kaku

    toss up between mane (@home but off form) and yaya (on pens if no kun)

    1. BrockLanders
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Mane gets benched for Yaya for me..

      1. UnitednationsXI
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        hmmm interesting.

        reason?

        1. BrockLanders
          • 11 Years
          10 years, 3 months ago

          Yaya is always involved when on form. Mane has been horrendous

  2. Puyol Pants Up
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Team set:

    DDG
    Dawson, Moreno, Nyom
    KDB, Ozil, Ramsey, Mahrez(C)
    Kane, Vardy, Ighalo

    McCarthy, Bellerin, Kolarov, Surman

    Let's go. Please Everton stay quite 😉

    1. Sterling Chap
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Lol, c'mon Lukak! Team looks good. Reckon Ramsey could be a great pick.

  3. Scotty B
    • 13 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    So 800 others on here joining me in captaining Hazard.

    I think as long as you have a good vice as back up then it is worth the risk as if he does start he could score big.

    1. ralfb
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      As long as he either starts or doesnt, if he comes on for 10 mins, you are in a mess

      1. Scotty B
        • 13 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        Very much doubt he will come on for 10 minutes but I see your point.

    2. Puyol Pants Up
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      I sold him this week. Mistakes were made.

      1. Scotty B
        • 13 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        What do you mean?

        1. Puyol Pants Up
          • 11 Years
          10 years, 3 months ago

          Should never of bought him in the first place. That's what I mean 🙂

  4. UnitednationsXI
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    who to start...henessey or lloris

    1. 1
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Henessey

  5. tabby98
    • 10 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Hennessey Myhill
    Wollscheid Bellerin Walker Moreno Targett
    Mahrez Ozil KDB Coutinho Drinkwater
    Kane Vardy Lukaku

    Who to captain and why?

  6. Danstoke82
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Bench Bellerin, Toby or Moreno?

    Starting Dawson

    1. 1
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Toby

  7. mranonymous
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Will we see Chelsea's line-up before GW is locked?

    1. JoJoRed
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Who is in charge of Chelsea today?

  8. Sterling Chap
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    G2G?

    Butland
    Moreno Monreal Dawson
    Bolasie Mahrez (vc) Özil KDB
    Vardy Kane Lukaku (c)
    Subs: McCarthy Mané Kolarov Francis

    1. Sterling Chap
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Thoughts anybody?

  9. lornemalvo
    • 15 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Ozil - KdB - Mahrez - Gosling - Barkley

    Who to get in for Barkley? 4mill in the bank

    1. Trigg ⭐️
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Nobody!!

      1. lornemalvo
        • 15 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        Have 2 FTs, feel like I should use one. But I´m leaning towards keeping. Cheers!

        1. Trigg ⭐️
          • 13 Years
          10 years, 3 months ago

          Sort out a non playing defender or something?

    2. Harry (C)ane
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Barkley to Ramsey if you really want to use the FT.

  10. Kevin
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Hey guys which is that Twitter account that gives Manchester United team news really early?

  11. Trigg ⭐️
    • 13 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Okay to save a FT?

    Butland

    Bellerin, Coleman, Moreno

    Mahrez, Hazard, Eriksen, Mane

    Kane, Lukaku, Vardy

    Hennessey, Gosling, Bertrand, O'Shea

    1. Sterling Chap
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Reckon you could save. Otherwise Mane > Wij

      1. Trigg ⭐️
        • 13 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        I was thinking that, but Mane is at home, and the Scouts seem to think he will do well, too. Cheers!

        1. Sterling Chap
          • 11 Years
          10 years, 3 months ago

          The scout picks threw me a bit. As I have Mane on the bench and I'm rolling out Bolasie instead of Mane 🙁

    2. Cowboy John
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Gosling will probably play, so as long as you're happy with that, yeah, it looks good.

      1. Trigg ⭐️
        • 13 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        Cheers. Just can't see anything that needs fixing desperately either.

  12. Kizza_10
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    A. Silva out for Ramsey

    B. Wait a week and put in Sanchez

    1. MITRO'S ON FIRE
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      B

    2. Trigg ⭐️
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      I definitely wouldn't do that move this week.

  13. WhatWouldYourZlatanSay
    • 10 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Not very confident this week...

    Mignolet

    Kos - Johnson - Moreno

    Mahrez - KDB - Eriksen - Hazard

    Kane - Vardy - Giroud

    Still sweating on Hazard's fitness and Ozil is not an option as I lost a bet so...

    Hazard >

    A) Coutinho
    B) Wijn
    C) Ramsey
    D) Sterling
    E) Ayew/Sig
    F) Mata

    Much obliged good people 🙂

    1. talarfon
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Ramsey or keep

    2. Puyol Pants Up
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      c

    3. Sterling Chap
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Rambo

  14. MITRO'S ON FIRE
    • 14 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Bench which of:

    A. Toby (sot)
    B. Moreno (wat)
    C. Bellerin (MCI)
    D. Dann (stk)

    1. Jazz!
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      A or C. Probably C

      1. MITRO'S ON FIRE
        • 14 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        Cheers, leaning that way

  15. Bøwstring The Carp
    • 14 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    So the last two weeks I've been putting together what I call a "due" list. Basically players that are having a high number of shots the box or assists, with no returns to show for it. Whether we call it unlucky, or poor finishing I think these two tables serve a good purpose in identifying threatening platers for a team.

    In GW15, 4 players of 13 from the two tables delivered returns (30.7%)
    In GW16, 6 players of 18 from the two tables delivered returns (33.3%)

    For GW17, I hope the percentage is a lot higher as players that have constantly been short of the mark such as Hazard, Willian, Mané and Martial will deliver.

    I have the two tables, for goals and assists below, but I recommend using them together as a "returns imminent" guide. Basically a player that is getting lots of penalty touches/ shots in the box may decide to lay it off to an advanced team mate to score (for an assist) in spite of being listed as due a goal. Likewise a creative player with plenty of touches in the penalty area might find himself in a goal-scoring position so keep this in mind in addition to his creative ability.

    Goals: http://members.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/my-stats-tables/view/12263/ (9 players)
    Assists: http://members.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/my-stats-tables/view/12239/ (20 players)

    This week there is a high number of players in assists due (20). Many are tied on 4 chances created, so I would personally be looking at those with 5 or more to be safe. The tables are run on a 2 gameweek sample, unlike many other goals/ assists imminent tables that run on a 4 week sample. I prefer this shorter sample as I think it gives a faster heads up with regards to what players might be given a different tactical role before they actually deliver. Though looking at the 4 week sample won't do any harm and give another perspective on what players have been consistently unlucky with returns.

    1. Bøwstring The Carp
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      That should read "shots in the box or chances created"

    2. 1
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Good to see second from top of Goals Imminent also in the Assists imminent.
      Need him to repay my faith this week!

      1. Bøwstring The Carp
        • 14 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        Yup, as a non-owner I think he's been very unfortunate!

    3. Numb
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      It seems that these sorts of tables are very popular (Jonty as well) but why go for players who are getting good stats but no returns when you can just get players who are getting good stats AND getting the returns (I.e. better end product)? What's the advantage?

      1. 1
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        Isn't the point of it more to maybe hang on to a player you are considering getting rid of?
        I'm sure Kane would've been on here prior to his hat-trick.

        1. Numb
          • 11 Years
          10 years, 3 months ago

          Good point

      2. Bøwstring The Carp
        • 14 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        I wouldn't be encouraging these players over players such as Ozil, Mahrez, Lukaku, etc

        I think if a team is coming into better fixtures, or a FPLmanager wants a nice differential to go with to try close a ML gap then they could be decent choices such as Arnautovic last week. Can be a good indicator as well of playrs being moved further forward/ giving an attacking role before they get their returns and a bandwagon starts.

        Especially for big hitters, but just as food for thought.

        I've enjoyed the last few weeks of putting them together just to see how often the stats back up a reaction in reality 🙂

    4. Cowboy John
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Good work. 🙂

      I suppose the only problem with a smaller gameweek sample is that fixture difficulty has a greater impact on the results?

      1. Bøwstring The Carp
        • 14 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        That's true as well

  16. Guigui
    • 13 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Bench one

    A) Ramsey
    B) Mahrez
    C) Coutinho
    D) KDB
    E) Bolasie

    1. HearMeRoar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      KDB? Arsenal is a tough game and Aguero is only just returning.

    2. MITRO'S ON FIRE
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Tough-E

    3. talarfon
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Tough, think I'd go bolasie or Ramsey

    4. tw
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Bolasie or KDB

    5. Guigui
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      F****** headache.

    6. J1F
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      C

  17. HearMeRoar
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    How likely is Firmino to start? Brought him in as a differential and he has not performed.

    Worth one more game week or is it time to say goodbye?

    1. talarfon
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      One more IMO.

    2. Bob.
      • 15 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      I'd say it's 60/40 he will start but didnt want to take the chance so sold him for FT. Dont take my advice though, I'm having a terrible season!

      1. HearMeRoar
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        I am also having a shocker. Last 4 seasons I've won one of my mini leagues and finished in top 5 of the other (more competitive one). This year, I'm 5th and 15th!!!

  18. Jazz!
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Number 3 on that assists table better get me some attacking returns already!

    1. Jazz!
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Reply fail.

    2. Bøwstring The Carp
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      He's there for the 2nd week running so he definitely owes his owners

      I think if the team find their attack returning he should be amongst the points

      1. Jazz!
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        🙂

  19. Only God forgives
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Woll/Dann/Kolarov (Olsson/Moreno) right order ?

    1. Guigui
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Moreno > Kolarov

    2. jiGGidyJ1
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Moreno > Kolarov

  20. Shiner
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Struggling between;

    Hennessey - Stoke Away
    Myhill - Bmth Home

    I know it should seem obvious but I think bmth will score. Been to the matches and we look a lot stronger going forward with King offering pace. Help a brother out lads...!

    1. talarfon
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Don't overthink it. Myhill

    2. J1F
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Pulis will play 8 centre backs as is standard for him, play Myhill.

  21. RajGas
    • 15 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Any ideas on a Man Utd back 4?

    1. Numb
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Varela Smalling Jones Blind

  22. Gabriel Agbonlahor
    • 14 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Bench one from this lot

    Silva Mahrez Bolasie Coutinho Ozil
    Kane Ighalo Lukaku

    1. Jazz!
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Ighalo will blank. That's all I'm telling you.

    2. sawant
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Bolasie

    3. tw
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Bolasie

    4. captaincuddles
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Deary me. Bolassie

    5. Guigui
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      ighalo

  23. The butts
    • 15 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    I'm selling Kolarov for Zuoma

    (I needed to tell someone)

    1. ralfb
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      I got zouma yesterday, too, having great expectations in new chelsea now.

  24. lornemalvo
    • 15 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Go on Ryiad, take the armband. You´ve earned it.

    Get in!

  25. BrockLanders
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Hazard to Wijnaldum for -4??

    1. tw
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      I'd probably rather someone else but he's a good shout

    2. Klip Klopp
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      I wouldnt, Chelsea still have easy opposition

    3. ralfb
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      I would keep haz now, if you still have him

  26. langwithboy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    I've had a shocking couple of weeks, any thoughts much appreciated

    0.5m ITB and no FT, g2g or would you swap in any of those on the bench?

    Butland
    Evans Wollscheid Moreno
    Coutinho Silva Ozil Mahrez Mane
    Vardy Lukaku (c)

    Hennesy Kane Alderweireld Bellerin

    1. FPL Fanatic
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Moreno on the bench, Toby in

      1. FPL Fanatic
        • 12 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        Also Mane on bench & Kane in

  27. Klip Klopp
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Pick 2 to play

    A. DDG
    B. Butland

    1. Bellerin
    2. Toby
    3. Kolarov

    Thanks

    1. Harry (C)ane
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      B2

    2. talarfon
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      A2, or maybe A1

    3. tw
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      not kolarov

      ddg and toby perhaps

    4. Guigui
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      A2

  28. Harry (C)ane
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Bench 2:

    A) Moreno (vs Watford)
    B) Dawson (vs Bournemouth)
    C) Wollscheid (vs Palace)
    D) Koscielny (vs City)

    1. Jazz!
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      C + D

      1. Vman
        • 12 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        A+D

    2. Guigui
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      CD

  29. Venom Snake
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Last time in gonna ask before I switch off!
    Play VVD or Ogbonna???

    1. Vman
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Latter..

  30. Vman
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Morning....

    Has Eden Hazard been ruled out or are we still unsure as to him being included??
    to be honest i am on the verge of swapping him for Mata for -4 after all he has been naughty!

    1. talarfon
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Not been ruled out but I think its unlikely he will start. Not worth transferring to mata though. I'd wait a week and asses Chelsea and sanchez

      1. Vman
        • 12 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        Cheers, i was only looking towards Mata because of fixtures, Sanchez was going to be in my thoughts over the next 2 gw's so again Cheers and good tidings to you..