When should Fantasy managers trust the stats or go with their gut?

Former FPL winner Simon March takes us through the pros and cons of going with your gut
| Player | Team | Price | Progress | Tonight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cunha | MUN | 8.0m | 140.1% | Very Likely |
| Rogers | AVL | 7.3m | 114.4% | Very Likely |
| James | CHE | 5.6m | 110.7% | Very Likely |
| Ekitiké | LIV | 9.0m | 106.2% | Very Likely |
| Dalot | MUN | 4.4m | 104.6% | Very Likely |
| Cherki | MCI | 6.6m | 94.0% | Likely |
| L.Miley | NEW | 4.4m | 100.8% | Very Likely |
| Lewis-Potter | BRE | 4.8m | 99.7% | Likely |
| Mukiele | SUN | 4.2m | 98.6% | Maybe |
| Chalobah | CHE | 5.5m | 96.6% | Maybe |
| Verbruggen | BHA | 4.4m | 93.2% | Unlikely |
| Alderete | SUN | 4.0m | 89.6% | Unlikely |
| Truffert | BOU | 4.5m | 89.2% | Unlikely |
| O'Reilly | MCI | 5.3m | 89.2% | Unlikely |
| Virgil | LIV | 5.9m | 75.2% | Unlikely |
| Andersen | FUL | 4.6m | 73.1% | Unlikely |
| Guéhi | CRY | 5.3m | 69.0% | Unlikely |
| Wirtz | LIV | 8.1m | 63.6% | Unlikely |
| Tete | FUL | 4.5m | 69.6% | Unlikely |
| Mount | MUN | 5.9m | 70.1% | Unlikely |
| Roefs | SUN | 4.8m | 67.9% | Unlikely |
| Mitchell | CRY | 5.0m | 63.3% | Unlikely |
| Rice | ARS | 7.2m | 59.3% | Unlikely |
| Saliba | ARS | 5.9m | 61.5% | Unlikely |
| Semenyo | BOU | 7.7m | 56.8% | Unlikely |
| Van den Berg | BRE | 4.5m | 58.3% | Unlikely |
| Petrović | BOU | 4.5m | 57.7% | Unlikely |
| Keane | EVE | 4.7m | 50.2% | Unlikely |
| E.Le Fée | SUN | 4.9m | 55.2% | Unlikely |
| Trossard | ARS | 6.9m | 55.0% | Unlikely |
| Pickford | EVE | 5.5m | 53.9% | Unlikely |
| Cullen | BUR | 5.0m | 54.5% | Unlikely |
| Heaven | MUN | 3.8m | 52.4% | Unlikely |
| Konaté | LIV | 5.4m | 53.1% | Unlikely |
| Dúbravka | BUR | 4.0m | 52.1% | Unlikely |
| Watkins | AVL | 8.5m | 48.5% | Unlikely |
| Calvert-Lewin | LEE | 5.8m | 49.8% | Unlikely |
| Smith Rowe | FUL | 5.6m | 48.1% | Unlikely |
| Gvardiol | MCI | 6.0m | 45.6% | Unlikely |
| Raya | ARS | 6.0m | 47.9% | Unlikely |
| Player | Team | Price | Progress | Tonight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Welbeck | BHA | 6.4m | 130.3% | Very Likely |
| Van Hecke | BHA | 4.6m | 121.2% | Very Likely |
| Cucurella | CHE | 6.2m | 102.1% | Very Likely |
| De Ligt | MUN | 5.0m | 102.6% | Very Likely |
| Pedro Porro | TOT | 5.3m | 102.0% | Very Likely |
| Udogie | TOT | 4.4m | 101.4% | Very Likely |
| Nørgaard | ARS | 5.2m | 100.6% | Very Likely |
| James | LEE | 5.3m | 100.0% | Likely |
| McAtee | NFO | 5.1m | 99.2% | Maybe |
| Colwill | CHE | 4.8m | 97.5% | Maybe |
| Yoro | MUN | 4.3m | 96.2% | Maybe |
| P.M.Sarr | TOT | 4.6m | 96.1% | Maybe |
| Nwaneri | ARS | 5.1m | 96.1% | Maybe |
| L.Guilherme | WHU | 4.9m | 96.4% | Maybe |
| Trafford | MCI | 4.6m | 96.0% | Maybe |
| Bevan | BOU | 3.9m | 95.2% | Maybe |
| Jair Cunha | NFO | 4.3m | 96.5% | Maybe |
| Mosquera | ARS | 5.4m | 94.9% | Maybe |
| Fer López | WOL | 5.2m | 93.8% | Unlikely |
| Gibbs-White | NFO | 7.3m | 94.2% | Unlikely |
| Hannibal | BUR | 4.8m | 94.0% | Unlikely |
| Tasker | BHA | 3.9m | 93.4% | Unlikely |
| Barnes | BUR | 4.3m | 93.1% | Unlikely |
| Enzo | CHE | 6.5m | 90.0% | Unlikely |
| Fitzgerald | MUN | 4.4m | 91.3% | Unlikely |
| Adams | BOU | 5.0m | 88.3% | Unlikely |
| Hermansen | WHU | 4.3m | 88.3% | Unlikely |
| Robertson | LIV | 5.8m | 88.3% | Unlikely |
| Johnson | SUN | 3.9m | 87.1% | Unlikely |
| Bayindir | MUN | 4.8m | 87.5% | Unlikely |
| Benitez | CRY | 4.0m | 87.4% | Unlikely |
| Aké | MCI | 5.3m | 87.4% | Unlikely |
| Broggio | AVL | 4.5m | 86.4% | Unlikely |
| Bellegarde | WOL | 5.2m | 85.9% | Unlikely |
| Odobert | TOT | 5.3m | 85.0% | Unlikely |
| Bruno G. | NEW | 7.0m | 83.3% | Unlikely |
| B.Fernandes | MUN | 9.2m | 80.7% | Unlikely |
| Eze | ARS | 7.6m | 75.4% | Unlikely |
| Seung soo | NEW | 4.4m | 81.8% | Unlikely |
| R.Gomes | WOL | 4.4m | 81.6% | Unlikely |
| Player | Club | Factors | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Change | ARS | B | |
| Up | EVE | B, Vs | |
| Down | LIV | C, Vs | |
| Down | MCI | B, Vs, Sus | |
| No Change | BRE | B, Vs | |
| No Change | BUR | C, £ |
| Player | Club | Factors | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Change | LIV | C, Vs | |
| No Change | ARS | C | |
| Up | EVE | Vs | |
| No Change | MCI | B, Vs | |
| No Change | CRY | A | |
| No Change | BRE | C, Vs | |
| No Change | NEW | C | |
| Down | FUL | C | |
| No Change | NFO | C, Sus | |
| No Change | BHA | A | |
| No Change | SUN | C, £ |
| Player | Club | Factors | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Change | ARS | A | |
| No Change | MCI | A, Vs | |
| Up | MUN | A | |
| No Change | BOU | A | |
| Up | LIV | B, Vs | |
| Up | EVE | B, Vs | |
| No Change | NEW | B, Sus | |
| No Change | BRE | C, Vs | |
| Down | BHA | C | |
| No Change | NFO | C, £ |
| Player | Club | Factors | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Change | MCI | A, Vs | |
| Up | LIV | A, Vs | |
| Up | WHU | B, Vs | |
| Down | BRE | C, Vs, Inj | |
| No Change | CRY | C | |
| No Change | NEW | B, Rest |

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