Martin O’Neill has confirmed that James Milner is “extremely doubtful” for Villa’s trip to West Ham on Wednesday.
Milner was subbed at half-time in the 1-1 draw at Goodison on Saturday with a calf problem, much to the frustration of many fantasy managers. Now it appears that O’Neill is so pessimistic of Milner’s chances of making Wednesday’s game, it appears he can’t tell us often enough…
“James is extremely doubtful. Having come off in the game at half-time, he is a real doubt…With 15 minutes remaining, I asked if he could see out the half and he said yes. But we were always going to make the change at half-time. He is a major concern – he is highly doubtful.”
This represents pretty disastrous news for those Fantasy Premier League managers who handed him the captaincy for Villa’s double gameweek. Milner returned just two points for these managers at the weekend – his prospects of increasing that on Wednesday seem minimal to say the least. Just in case you missed it…
“He is a real doubt…”
Thanks Martin.
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Yup, I’m one of “those FPL Managers”. Gutted
Not great news seeing as I brought him in last week for this DGW, I captained A.Young so there is hope yet, should have stuck with Fab.
I already used my transfer to beat a price rise so it looks like another week another points hit on the horizon, although pretty chuffed with the Saha>C.Cole 4 pointer this week.
crazy to captain him anyway!
i already got rid.
Disaster for my cyki team where I captained him at the last minute after having Cole as captain all week. Stupid 120 minute Carling Cup match is what did it.
i have him as well,thank god i gave fab the armband
pah. hes ruined my gameweek but a lesson learned at least! I’m sticking to Drogba or Fabs next DGW regardless
Speaking of Injuries, nice to hear Arteta is traning again http://twitter.com/mikelarteta
Was a tossup for me to get in Young or Milner. I went for Young in the end luckily, but these are the kinds of decisions that can make or wreck your gameweek.
As it is, I can only see 3 or 4 at best for Young anyway at West Ham…
yeah i went for young between the two as well and boy am i happy now
Likewise, gutted I didn’t stick with Fab but relieved I dodged the Milner bullet so it’s not all bad.
Ah well for the 2nd time this season my Captain doesn’t come out for the 2nd half and gets me 1pt which seems now to be his finishing score – yeah gutted.
The last time was Cesc in a home game to Pompie GW3 – these things can happen to anyone I guess…….
hasn’t happened to me…
yet.
i don’t think I have ever known Milner to miss a minute of football in his life. Bloody typical this, he waits for a double gameweek. He has always struck me as the type of player that would play on even if his head fell off his rather large neck…a bloody calf injury!? ps special thanks to MON for keeping this one under his hat all week. I thought it was odd that Milner didn’t take a penalty last wednesday. Anyway, I’m off to give young Jimmy a good rub down.
“I’m off to give young Jimmy a good rub down.”
Never heard it called that before…
Anything for an extra few FPL bonus points, MnL.
Milner (16%, 384 Votes), oh dear.
lol… fools!! all fools the lot of you!!
im only messing.. he was a good choice for captain its just unfortunate… but i guess there the kind of knocks you get in fantasy football..
I’m not sure he was a good choice for captain. The only reason anyone seemed to be giving for captaining him or Young was that he had two games. Trying not to sound like Mr Hindsight here, but it’s not enough of a reason, especially as neither game was that easy anyway.
Statistically, he was a very good choice.
In theory he plays 2 games, his expected points would be double what he usually delivers (41 x 2 = 82). That would have made him at least as good points wise as the leaders at the time, (Fab, Drog etc), and sensible captain material.
To be taken off at half time in the first game is ridiculously unlucky – it is just as likely that a player like Fabregas could have been taken off too and it does not justify your case.
Both games were away, sure, but against West Ham and a troubled Everton side, I’d say you could expect similar outputs to that achieved against Liverpool, Chelsea & Man City.
The fact that Fabregas, Drogba, Lampard & RVP had a better-than-usual week does not change the fact that Milner was a good captain choice, you can’t ever expect the big guns to fire like that, it was an exception, not the rule. Just like the war, you can’t judge a decision based on information found out after the case.
I applied the same logic as those who captained Milner and captained Dunne, and I still think it was the sensible thing to do.
The average score for Fab/Lampard/Drogba/RVP in their games is probably 6-7?
Dunne’s likely score was probably 8-9, so I’m happy with the choice.
still disagree that milner was a good captains choice. in 9 games he’s got a goal or assist in just 3 of them. not the best odds there even over 2 matches.
I agree, the people saying “you wouldn’t captain x/y/z in the 2 individual matches, therefore you shouldn’t captain them in the double gameweek” are missing the point entirely.
Well said and i totally agree which is why i captained Agbonlahor over Lampard and Fabregas. (which is also why im kicking myself). It was the safer option to guarantee a captain haul of around 10 points at least but that said, i’d still make the same decision again, given that Villa are a strong side but i certainly wont be captaining any Fulham/Hull/Everton/Blackburn players
i’m confused why is captaining agbonlahor in a double gw so easy but u would never captain a fulham player for example in a double gw?
Where are these ‘expected’ points coming from? It just doesn’t work like that.
Using mean as a basis for how a player will do is just ridiculous. Milner has scored more than 4 points three times this season, while he’s scored 3 or fewer on five occasions (discounting this weekend – but his one haul of 14 had dragged the mean up.
Milner got 2,2 and 1 against Liverpool Chelsea and Man C, so I’m not following your point there.
Fab, Drog, Lamp and RVP have all scored more than 4 points in a GW very consistently this season. That’s why they were good choices.
By the way, I said all this before the deadline on Saturday, so Milner’s unlucky injury has nothing to do with it.
Well it does, because everyone’s using his 1 point as “proof” that they were right
(I don’t have him btw)
His history this season suggested that a score of 1-3 per game was most likely, regardless of injury.
That’s true if you ignore every game where he scored heavily and only look at the worst games.
Hey why don’t we do the opposite and claim that only the high scoring games matter, so 7-14 was most likely? Well that would be ridiculous.
So, like anyone with mathematical sense, we’ll take the AVERAGE.
As I say below, if you’re talking averages, why are you using mean and not median? Then you’re not seeing results skewed as much by big or poor one-off performances.
I just don’t believe it’s a simple as saying “The FACT is that after 9 games, he had 41 points.” therefore he’ll continue scoring at that rate, regardless of who is he’s playing against. You need to apply a little bit of football knowledge as well…
well if milner got 6 points over two gameweeks I would of being happy with that at least marknlard….that was my logic…
As it does with Young, so substitute Young for Milner in all the above and we’ll see where we stand on Thursday.
Where were you when Foch was talking to me about Robbie Keane on saturday morning getting me edgy?
I was an absolute pushover of weakness.
At least you’ve got Foch to blame.
‘Where are these ‘expected’ points coming from? It just doesn’t work like that.’
What are you on about? By ‘expected’ points I simply meant the statistical likelihood, which is the BEST way of objectively quantifying points.
‘Using mean as a basis for how a player will do is just ridiculous. ‘
No, it’s by far the most accurate and reasonable measure to take – how ridiculous to suggest that average points is a ridiculous measure. I would estimate that the average score a player has achieved has over 75% correlation to what they get in the next games. Saying Milner has scored more than 4 points only three times this season does not change the fact that if you take 2 subsequent games in a row he has 4,8,9,17,21,9,3,5,5, or that his average points per game is 4.5.
‘but his one haul of 14 had dragged the mean up’
Yeah, so your saying it’s bad that he scored 14? That is evidence to suggest he’s a bad captain choice? Totally illogical.
‘Milner got 2,2 and 1 against Liverpool Chelsea and Man C, so I’m not following your point there.’
.. and yet his average for 1 game is still 4.5, making his average for 2 games 9 (which is a very good AVERAGE captain choice, since other players only reach 7/8 at maximum).
‘Fab, Drog, Lamp and RVP have all scored more than 4 points in a GW very consistently this season. That’s why they were good choices.’
Yet they weren’t 99% likely to play 2 games, so you can HALVE their score in comparison.
The FACT is that after 9 games, he had 41 points.
Why use mean, and not median?
I didn’t want to get involved in this one but I was thinking the same thing. If you are talking mathematically surely the median is better getting rid of random results from the equation.
A bit pointless the whole debate though as it was a gamble with a near 100% chance of a half decent return so I dont think it was a bad decision to capt milner or a good one
I’m sure there’s a very good reason, but as I’m no mathematician, I don’t know what it is.
i agree with marknlard’s point that as milner has only got a good score (>4) in 3 out of 9 games this season he is too big a gamble to captain in away games against everton and west ham. not saying it is impossible just too big a gamble, as with young. i’m a big believer in instinct based on circumstances not maths.
What you want is to work out the average, then work out the standard deviation in order to see how skewed the results are.
It doesn’t really matter, because the facts were that Fabregas (and possibly Drogba too) averaged more per game than Milner did every two games. And subsequently, Fabregas outscored Milner.
The median is not necessarily accurate.
It is used when there are anomalies, severely incorrect or inaccurate results which can affect the average (such as experimental results where errors can happen). However, In this case (Milner), the extremes (1,14) are not anomalies, they are just examples where he scored high. If you remove them, you are removing real data which is accurate, and that can only lead to inaccurate results.
Imagine a player plays 3 games, and gets 1 point, 1 point, 1 point, 10 points, 13 points. The median would tell you he’s likely to get just 1 point. The average would take into account BOTH extremes (the highs AND the lows) and give you a more reasonable picture.
If you do want to see the ‘risk’ associated with achieving that mean again, you can calculate the standard deviation as MFaulkner says, that just gives you an idea how consistently that result is happening.
The facts are as follows (prior to this gameweek):
Dunne: 6.875 PPG (13.75 for 2 games)
Fabregas: 9.625 PPG
Milner: 4.56 PPG (9.11 for 2 games)
Drogba: 8 PPG
RVP: 7 PPG
Making Milner statistically a better captain choice than Drogba and RVP, and pretty much comparable to Fabregas. Unless you want to argue that statistically Drogba and RVP were bad choices, you can’t argue that just because Fabregas was higher he was the only choice.
As I said above, I chose Dunne, as statistically he was miles ahead of them all, but the fact remains both he and Milner were excellent captain choices and the fact it hasn’t worked out doesn’t change that.
AppleBonkers, in reply to this:
“milner has only got a good score (>4) in 3 out of 9 games this season”
Milner was not just playing 1 game (in theory). He was likely to play 2 games.
His scores in 2 consecutive games are as follows:
4
8
9
17
21
9
3
5
5
Using this data (for 2 games in a row), he has scored > 4 in 7 of the 9 weeks, which is exactly the same as Fabregas.
“Unless you want to argue that statistically Drogba and RVP were bad choices, you can’t argue that just because Fabregas was higher he was the only choice.”
Well I wouldn’t, because I’m saying you should take more into account than just their average scores of the (relatively short) season so far.
I agree, you have to take other factors into account, but that is always subjective. Several people believed Milner was the better choice without knowing about the averages.
All I’m saying is that you can’t argue that statistically Milner was a bad captain choice. Maybe in your personal view it wasn’t the best captain, but I could easily say the same for Fabregas (who I had, but didn’t captain).
Average values are of course not conclusive, nothing is – we can’t ever predict what will happen, but it’s the best objective measure we have really. The best statistical method we have suggested Milner was a better captain choice than Drogba or RVP.
For example, I have Dunne captain, he’s on 8 now but I’m confident it’ll be a lot more after Wednesday, and that’s without getting a clean sheet so far. A clean sheet on Wed and he’s already up to 20, and it’s not beyond the realms of possibility.
By the way, if you take the averages of the whole of last season into account (you mentioned that the season has only just begun), it actually emphasises my point. Milner’s average was higher and Fab/Drogba/RVP were all lower.
Fab had a mean of 11 points from his home games this season before this weekend.
Milner has a mean of 4 from his away games. So double that, and he was lower than Fab.
You can pick whatever stats you want to make players statisically good or bad choices.
You know, you can’t just random games in isolation, that’s what makes the AVERAGE the most accurate representation.
Oh and by the way, his average home score was 9.75.
Fab was at home this weekend, Milner’s two were away.
Teams tend to set themselves up differently according to being home or away, I haven’t picked random games.
And Fabregas did indeed score 11 this weekend, so looks like my average interpretation is pretty reliable!
He came off at halftime in Portsmouth, so it seemed fair to call that half a game.
39 divided by 3.5.
See where I’m coming from about picking stats to support a case?
You’re trying to prove that I’m manipulating stats by doing that yourself?
The fact that you have to criticise your own actions to get any kind of a statistical argument proves my point.
I would like to humour your idiocy.
Despite the fact that you criticised the frame of reference being too small when it was the season, you have halved it, and then manipulated stats where a player gets taken off at half time, to make a point.. but lets journey back, what point have you made? That statistically Fabregas was a good choice? Not only does that contradict your own point that it shouldn’t be based on stats, it is also something I’ve already stated. If you care to journey back you will see that I already listed Fab at the top (but still worse than Dunne).
So, lets compare the other captain choices shall we? I’ll even humour your ridiculous logic?
Drogba (away) – Average is 6.8 points
(6.8 is less than 8, did you know?)
RVP (Home) – Average is 7
(7 is less than 8, did you know?)
Well, what do you know, even applying your own manipulated (and stupid) logic, my point remains exactly what it always was..
To statistically argue that Milner was a bad choice as captain, you also have to say that Drogba and RVP were bad choices, since they were statistically likely to score fewer points.
So you’re stuck inbetween a rock and a hard place. You either:
- go back to saying that stats should be ignored, making all your hard work calculating the averages a nonsense, thereby realising that a subjective opinion is all you have.
- admit that Milner was as good an option statistically as Drogba or RVP (my point all along).
There’s a lot in that post that’s pretty childish, Frank, so I’m going to leave the discussion now.
I had been interested to know why your season average method was the best we have, while my refining of home/away was a manipulation, but I can see you’re not going to be able to do it without being patronising and rude.
I’ve disagreed with you, but at least I’ve been polite.
Actually, calling logic ‘ridiculous’ is not polite. Calling someone ‘childish’ kinda takes away from the ‘high-road’ approach too.
As above, I showed that even using your statistical method my point remains, so we can use whatever statistical model you want, my original point stands.
I think the point you’re missing is that we’re talking across purpose – and the reason you’ve been patronised is because you’re arguing against facts.
The fact is that STATISTICALLY Milner was a good captain choice (your or my statistics).
Another fact is that you don’t look at statistics when deciding on a captain.
You just need to realise that just because you don’t use statistics doesn’t mean that statements about statistics aren’t true.
My point all along is that I’m not talking about a statistically good captain, or making a statistically good argument.
Just a good captain, because stats don’t tell you everything, and you can easily find contradictory ones. As I had Young rather than Milner this week, it does remain to be seen whether I made the right choice by captaining Fab, but on the pitch I can’t really see Young scoring. In which case, I’ll be happy I plumped for Fab.
So option 1 then
Only viable captain options for doubleweek were C.Cole, Agbon and maybe A.Young.
Ok, I’ve gone completely mad for this GW. Already made 3 transfers. 2 of them I had to do due a price rise (cause I couldn’t probably afford them a gw later). 3rd of them I had to do, cause I couldn’t afford the second one. Jolly madness
i brought in Boltons Lee and van persie for Arshavin and Jerome. guess we will findout of i made a mistake or not at weekend
I was soo close at the last minute to change fab to milner, glad i didn’t , unlucky for those who did. Dempsey will be coming in for a 5 game shift now
I had Initally had Fab ,meant to change to Milner but somehow had missed out.
7 Mins before deadline since i had nothing good to do i went to Fpl site and noticed i still had fab captain.
Changed to Milner and said to Myself :”Good thing i Noticed it. 7 mins later and I could have had a disastrous week”
stupid captain to have- i said it over and over last week. 2 away games ud never captain him in, the fact that they were in the same gameweek never justified the armband.
I wish I was as insightful as you.
Some poor sod out there must have loaded up with Petrov, Milner and Diamanti.
Was torn all week between my little Diamanti in the rough and Cole. Went for Cole last min. Thank f*%k! Not sure why Zola isn’t starting him though, he seems like he’s got a bit of quality about him.
I think I even told you to avoid Diamanit
Yeah you’re right! In fact I think you advised me to put in Reid instead of Kranjcar, which was a pearl of pure wisdom! Thanks si!
anyone heard any more on Duff? Looking to take Milner out quick snap but worry that i may replace one injury for another….
patience he hasnt been ruled out yet. if there is any team that i wouldnt rule out any of their doubtful players making it, it is definitely villa. i swear every other game ashley young is a doubt but never ever misses a game
True.
Warnock was a doubt for the weekend
Gutted
Dunn or Dempsey to replace Milner?
C Cole-> v persie,Elliot->Dunn sound good….or is it unnescary to get rid of Cole
i’m gonna be keeping cole for a long long time. fpl gold. never rested or rotated and the main man at west ham.
yah im reluctant to get rid
Would taking out Bent for C.Cole be madness?
Just may give me a little money for a better defender. Though i’m thinking of taking out Milner for Dempsey, that’ll free up some money also.
thinking the same myself, i prefer fulhams line up of games but i think finances are dictating i go with Dunn.
Milner is a doubt for the GW still underway. He may be fit for the weekend? Why transfer him now?
I look like losing 0.1 on Adebayor tonight but I’ll leave him in. If he can’t score well home to Burnley, when can he? Che, MU, Arsenal, ‘Pool, Fulham and Eve are all playing in Europe this week, internationals on 14th and 18th, Champs League again on 24th and 25th. Can’t get excited by Hull, Everton, Fulham and Blackburn (away twice) players. Panic buys now could all be useless by GW 13 on 21 November.
I reckon the best thing to do right now is nothing, sit tight until 20/21 November and look at possible double transfers. Block FFS and FPL sites and do some work for a change.
and Danny Murphy will be back by then
was just about to ask when murphy’s back. honestly he’s the only fulham player i’d consider long term cause of his set piece duties
Also have Ade. Probably also going to keep him in. Was considering a short term swap to Torres for this week and then to Rooney thereafter, but Torres may be rested/injured against Birmingham. Besides if Ade is fit Burnley at home is as good as it gets.
Also can get rid of Hunt now……Hull are terrible.
Its not really worth taking a hit if Milner is fit for next GW is it?
Look at the fixtures: BOL bur TOT HUL
Cant believe i took a 4 point hit to bring in Adebayor and captained Milner. Dooooh.
Was a tactical move to captain Milner and as all such moves they either make you a King or a servant. This time we had the second option but Milner was due to an assist or bonus as he is so important at the midfield of Aston Villa. That is all in the past and instead of having a very good week I am having a good week but that is Fantasy football after all. Couple of double gameweeks in the near future and we should be thinking our strategy.
A bit irrelavant at this point, but always relevant when visiting this site, and I have to give many congratulations once again for the extremely good work of all the people that run this site. Respect!!
Does anyone know what is the record points scored in one gameweek?
Ohhh How i laugh at reading this post…
Which post are you laughing at Al and why?
What do you think? Everyone captained Milner and now he is doubtful, he is laughing at those who captained him.
Thank you for replying on behalf of al. I’m sure you know exactly what he was replying to.
This is a prediction game and some guesses work, some don’t. You think al was laughing at people who captained Milner but he said it was “this post” he was laughing at. Which one and why?
Most people on here share info and tips but don’t try to take the pizz. I went to look at your link but we can’t see your team. We see a link to another FPL speculation site. Where is your team?
I was asking al what he was laughing at. But you must be his spokesman.
tetchy
Unfortunately this is going to likely knock me out of the Scout Cup. I am up by 1 point and have Friedel but Team Sam has C. Cole and Dunne. Unless Dunne gets a yellow card or Friedel gets a point for 3 saves I am basically out. I do have the tie breaker so there is that. i am essentially rooting for yellow cards.
To think I was “this close” to bringing C. Cole in for Nugent. Had I known for sure Jensen was playing I would have made that move in a heartbeat instead of bringing friedel in for Nugent.
Gutted.
Maybe ill get lucky. Probably not. Of course if Milner suits up and gets in the game ill be in decent shape.
Yeah, I know, it’s ridiculously tight. Could still go either way. Friedel regularly gets save points, although Cole and Dunne are both bonus point potentials. It’s crazy that one point from a yellow could make the difference.
As you said though, if Milner does start you’ll be in the driving seat. Excellent quarter final I have to say!
may the best man win..still could go either way…cole/dunne yellow cards/red cards/injuries/subbed before 60 could change it…
YOUR OPPONENET MAY HAVE MADE TWO OR THREE TRANSFERS LOSING HIM POINTS, YOU NEVER KNOW
oh great i turned this pc saw milner major doubt…. one word SH*TE…
2 words..
..
great stuff..
Maybe if there is a penalty given to villa MON could bring milner on to take it? maybe…. obviously MON must not of captained milner in his fantasy football team? Are real football managers exempt from fantasy football due to the unfair advantage they have? They might really need that digital camera?
Guys enlighten me please, in FPL game when your Giggs was not playing last weekend and 1st subtitute is Lennon which also not playing, will Mears as 2nd subtitute will replace Giggs’s points? or it stopped at Lennon as the consequences of Manager failed to put the priority a first place?
Do hope it’s the later as it’s my direct competitor has this kind of situation
Mears will be the new replacement. Your competitor is a lucky guy but must have a few problems with Giggs & Lennon in his team.
Lucky bast*** indeed, hope it would last soon. Thanks TM!
Your welcome Cahyo.
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