The Technical Area – Analysing Laudrup’s Swansea

As debuts go, he could hardly have asked for more. With two goals, an assist and a couple of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) bonus points to his name, Michu’s 18 point return has Fantasy managers queuing up in their droves ahead of a schedule which serves up five home matches in the next seven Gameweeks for Swansea…

In this week’s Technical Area piece, we take a look at an instant change in tactics under Michael Laudrup and, analysing Michu’s role in “the hole”, compare it to Gylfi Sigurdsson’s output in the same position away from home for the Welsh club last season.

Prior to Saturday’s match, Laudrup has spent time discussing his tactical thoughts for the season ahead. The Dane revealed he was keen to make a couple of subtle tweaks to Brendan Rodgers’ 4-3-3 system which would result in the wide men affecting play from more central areas – a move, he hoped, that would boost the attacking potential of a side that failed to find the net in 15 of their league matches in 2011/12:

I think maybe the two positions I have changed the most are the two wide players. I don’t know if I’m wrong, but from what I’ve seen last year they always had to be very open — they stayed wide with and without the ball. I want them to come in and try to find space between lines. They have proved they are so irritating for the other team. I am looking always at what the opponents think, and they know players who come in between the lines are very dangerous.

Laudrup also spoke on his side’s renowned passing game and suggested the Welsh outfit may be a little more adventurous with their distribution. A license to be a creative and more decisive on the ball would certainly boost their attacking potential, though it could see them have slightly less of the ball overall if they operate with a little more risk to their game.

When I see a game on the television and you see afterwards ‘possession percentage 60-40′, that doesn’t say anything for me because it could be that one team is playing the ball between the back four 120 times. It’s the same as when someone says, ‘Look, one of the central defenders had 98% good passes’. Yeah, but it was from here to there [five yards apart]. For me, possession is to keep the ball while you are waiting for the possibility to penetrate. Every pass is for a reason.

QPR v Swansea: 2012/13 v 2011/12

The team stats from Saturday’s game and the corresponding fixture in 2011/12 are revealing. Swansea had 60.7% possession at Loftus road last term, managed 11 shots at goal – with two on target – and lost 3-0 at Loftus Road in Gameweek 33. At the weekend, the Welsh club had just 50.7% of the ball but managed more shots (14) and efforts on target (six) and, of course, won 5-0. While this backs up the second statement above, Laudrup’s comments on less width on the ball are confirmed by the average position maps for each game.

Saturday’s match (left) highlights how the full-backs stayed deeper when in possession – last term, Angel Rangel (22) had 97 touches with 36 in the QPR defensive third (right); at the weekend, the right-back’s 57 touches and 12 in the attacking zone suggests he may not be quite as threatening going forward under Laudrup.

In terms of shape, it’s intriguing to see Jonathan De Guzman (20) – slotting in alongside Leon Britton (7) as Joe Allen’s replacement – is playing far closer to Michu in the middle than Allen (24) was to Sigurdsson (42) last season. Indeed, the two wide men, De Guzman, Michu and Danny Graham are all far closer in proximity to one another when in possession compared to the equivalent players last term, demonstrating that Swansea have adapted well to their new manager’s tactics, interchanging and playing between the lines with immediate success.

As Nathan Dyer – scorer of two of the goals on Saturday admitted after the match, there’s a definite feeling of optimism amongst the wide men after their change in roles paid off spectacularly on Saturday afternoon:

I can score goals — I’ve always scored goals in training. I didn’t really get the chance to come inside last season. This year the gaffer wants me to come inside more and get into the box. That’s benefited me and I’m pleased with that. The manager reckons we’ll benefit from the wingers playing slightly closer to the striker and personally I agree. We can make runs and passes rather than being too far away.

From a Fantasy perspective, the attacking central midfield role at Swansea looks a strong prospect once again – Michu has already risen in price in the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) game, up to 6.6 overnight. The burning question for Fantasy managers then is – does Michu have the potential to be this season’s Gylfi Sigurdsson?

Sigurdsson v Michu: Distribution

Looking at the way Laudrup has his side set up to play, it’s immediately obvious that Michu hasn’t been purchased as a playmaker. Sigurdsson averaged 68.2 touches per road trip last term, taking time on the ball to dictate play behind lone forward Danny Graham – by comparison, Michu had 53 touches on Saturday afternoon. The average position map shows just how far forward Sigurdsson (left) was stationed in away games under Brendan Rodgers in 2011/12; the freedom afforded by a greater team width allowed him the space to create, whereas Michu, on average, received the ball in deeper positions, with the wide men coming inside to link up.

In terms of passes received, however, the two are almost identical – Swansea players picked out Sigurdsson once every 2.4 minutes to Michu’s 2.5, though the Icelandic international received more than double the number of passes in the final third – 10.9 to 5.0. Digging deeper into the distribution data, the two players were very similar in the number of passes made – Sigurdsson just edging it by 39.1 to 37 but Michu was the more accurate in possession, with a 89.2% to 82.4% accuracy. With set-pieces in the bag, though, Sigurdsson created 2.9 chances per away game for Swansea, superior to Michu’s 2 and he also played more passes in the danger area, by 8 to 3.

Sigurdsson v Michu: Goal Threat

Crucially for Fantasy managers, though, Michu had 4 touches in the QPR box at the weekend, whereas Sigurdsson averaged 2.9 per away appearance in the previous campaign. It seems that Laudrup is using Danny Graham’s movement to better effect, with the forward drifting out wide to create space for Michu’s Lampard-esque late runs into the box – Graham made 2 crosses on Saturday, compared to an away average of just 0.3 last season.

The Sigurdsson – Michu comparison for crosses looks significant; the former produced 8.3 (including 4.4 corners) per away game, whereas Michu failed to deliver a single ball from a wide position – an indication he is likely to see the ball in more central positions. Interestingly for Graham’s Fantasy owners, he had more touches in the box (5) on Saturday than he averaged in 2011/12 (3.7), a positive sign ahead of his upcoming schedule.

Analysing the Sigurdsson v Michu goal attempts, it’s intriguing to see that while the former averaged 4.8 shots per away game for Swansea, only 1.6 came inside the penalty area – this equates to 33%. Three of Michu’s four goal attempts at the weekend (or 75%) were inside the box. The graphic illustrates this perfectly, showing just how many of Sigurdsson’s attempts were considerably further away from goal – indeed, he managed a total of 14 shots inside the box away from home.

Obviously, a single game is a little too soon to make any grand assumptions with regards to Michu’s Fantasy potential but Laudrup has clearly made a difference to the advanced central midfield role and it’s already obvious why he opted for a goal-getter rather than a creator when seeking a Sigurdsson replacement. Whether opponents will counter this tactic as the season unwinds only time will tell but if Swansea maintain their new approach, Laudrup’s tactical tweak suggests Michu’s prospects for the campaign ahead look positive.

*The Technical Area is put together using the statistics and maps available in our members area. For access to such data and tools on every player, team and match of the 2012/13 season, and for exclusive members articles like this, click here for details.