World Cup 2014 – Group Stage Strength of Schedule

In planning my World Cup Fantasy teams, I have developed a simple Strength of Schedule (SOS) scale for the Group Stages. I assume you will choose an initial team for the groups, after which you will use different criteria to modify your line-up for the knock-out rounds. An SOS is useful when looking to compare players of similar price and potential, and, in particular, for when searching for good value players amongst the lesser known teams.

Strength of Schedule (SOS) Explained

The first step is to assign each team one of five quality categories. The top teams carry a quality score of five, the next tier a quality score of four, down to the “worst” teams with a quality score of one.

You may disagree with my categorisation – if so, I’ve been completely transparent about the methodology so please feel free to calculate your own SOS.

Quality 5: Brazil, Argentina, Germany, Spain

Quality 4: Belgium, Colombia, England, France, Italy, Uruguay, Portugal, Holland

Quality 3: Chile, Russia, Ivory Coast, Japan, Switzerland, Bosnia, Mexico, Croatia, Ecuador

Quality 2: Ghana, Greece, Nigeria, Korea, USA, Australia, Cameroon

Quality 1: Algeria, Costa Rica, Honduras, Iran

Results

From these scores, I’ve developed an “Absolute SOS” scale. For each team, simply add up the quality scores of the three group opponents.

Here’s the result – the lower the number the easier the opposition:

6: Argentina, Belgium

7: France, Russia

8: Brazil, Columbia, Switzerland, Ecuador, Bosnia, Germany, Korea

9: Spain, Ivory Coast, Japan, Uruguay, England, Italy, Nigeria, Portugal, Algeria

10: Croatia, Mexico, Holland, Greece, Honduras, Iran

11: Cameroon, Chile, Ghana, USA

12: Australia, Costa Rica

I’ve also calculated a “Relative SOS”, taking into account the strength of the team, not just the opposition. For example Brazil (quality 5) vs. Cameroon (quality 2) gives a +3 for Brazil and -3 for Cameroon.

These are added up for each team’s 3 group matches.

Here are the results, where positive numbers are better:

+9: Argentina

+7: Brazil, Germany

+6: Spain, Belgium

+5: France

+4: Columbia

+3: Uruguay, England, Italy, Portugal

+2: Holland, Russia

+1: Switzerland, Ecuador, Bosnia

0: Ivory Coast, Japan

-1: Croatia, Mexico

-2: Chile, Korea

-3: Nigeria

-4: Greece

-5: Cameroon, Ghana, USA

-6: Australia, Algeria

-7: Honduras, Iran

-9: Costa Rica

Conclusion

These numbers, by themselves, suggest the teams to focus on during the group stages: certainly Argentina, Belgium, France, Russia, Korea and Algeria all look interesting based on my SOS. Those to possibly avoid include Spain, Holland, Chile, Ghana, USA and Costa Rica.

I will use these numbers in my spreadsheet, alongside purchase price, to identify the best value players. This may be a good way to choose between equally priced players with similar potential, allowing the SOS to be the deciding factor.

I hope you find this approach useful – let me know if you find any hidden gems. Good luck.