With the new season on the doorstep, I will hopefully turn your attention to some of these high-quality midfield options in time, as many Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers look to finalise their teams at these late stages. Many of you have chopped and changed with the 8.5/9.0-priced options, especially those of you opting to play 3-5-2 this year, so perhaps a statistical analysis may highlight some players that have been somewhat underrated in the build-up to the 2014/15 campaign.
I’ve taken the popular 8.5/9.0 midfielders and dissected their scoring last season, looking at their form over the last four seasons as a whole (where applicable). The main stat looked at here is Points Per Game (PPG). For players such as Cesc Fabregas and Mesut Ozil that have come from different leagues over the last few seasons, an estimate season score was calculated from factors such as goals, assists, cards, points per minutes played, clean sheet points and estimated bonus points.
Instead of dissuading many with a load of numbers and figures plastered onto the article, I’ve linked the stats here for those interested in seeing the calculations and a more in-depth breakdown of each player over the last four seasons (Ownership percentage as of 12/8/14)
Aaron Ramsey
(Arsenal, 9.0, 30.8% ownership)
The most popular pick of the lot, the young Welshman has been snapped up by over 30% of Fantasy managers so far. A goal against Man City in the Charity Shield showed that the 23-year-old still has a lot to offer in attack. It will be interesting to see how Wenger will use him this season, with the added attacking threat of Alexis Sanchez in the squad too. His PPG stats last season lead all of our other choices except Cesc Fabregas, which will be discussed further on. On average, however, the PPG stat is quite unfair, since he has not featured heavily in Arsenal’s last three seasons and is still only entering his prime at 23. Nonetheless, Aaron Ramsey has wowed football fans and hit his highest career PPG season to date.
2013/14 PPG: 7.46
Average PPG: 4.74
Mesut Ozil
(Arsenal, 9.0, 5.1% ownership)
After a season of mixed performances, a price drop for the German maestro may seem justified. Ozil has seen a noticeable drop in his returns compared to his time at Real Madrid, with a number of factors perhaps responsible; the rigours of the Premier League, settling in at the his club, a reflection of the style of Real Madrid, or possibly bad luck. A comparison of Ozil and Ramsey on average over last season shows that the two were equal on key stats and overall 50/50. Ozil is certainly one to watch for the coming season, especially with his low ownership.
2013/14 PPG: 5.75
Average PPG: 6.59
David Silva
(Man City, 9.0, 7.8% ownership)
David Silva has emerged as one of the most reliable midfielders in the Premier League over the last few seasons. When he plays he is heavily involved in City’s attack. He has consistently racked up the assists and has hit the mid-to-high hundreds in overall points. His occasional free-kicks and corners are an added bonus alongside his final-third stats. The drawback with Silva is that he is quite injury prone, yet despite this he still managed to hit his highest PPG season last year.
2013/14 PPG: 6.28
Average PPG: 5.61
Samir Nasri
(Man City, 8.5, 6.2% ownership)
It was a great year for Samir Nasri, with seven goals and 11 assists, as outscored team mate David Silva by four points. The French international looked dangerous in terms of threat and creative ability and there’s no wonder he is in many people’s thinking. Like Silva, Nasri has hit his highest PPG season over the last four years. Despite the lower cost than Silva, when you look at Price to PPG, it seems Silva has the slight edge over Nasri, especially in terms of security, with competition on the right wing with Jesus Navas. However, it will be interesting to see what the flair of Samir Nasri can deliver this season for Fantasy managers willing to snap him up.
2013/14 PPG: 5.61
Average PPG: 5.13
Steven Gerrard
(Liverpool, 9.0, 7.1% ownership)
What was a fantastic season for Liverpool was reflected in the returns of skipper Steven Gerrard. With 13 goals and 15 assists, it is no wonder that the Liverpool midfielder was chosen by so many. His set-piece duties accounted for most of his goals and assists, yet the absence of Luis Suarez, in addition to his deep position and extra fixtures may put a lot of people off. This is perhaps reflected in his ownership of 7.1%. For 9.0, however, it may turn out that Gerrard could be in for another decent season in terms of Fantasy returns. With his highest PPG over the last four seasons last term, perhaps there is still plenty of life in the 34-year-old in FPL terms.
2013/14 PPG: 6.37
Average PPG: 5.40
Raheem Sterling
(Liverpool, 8.5, 27.7% ownership)
Like Aaron Ramsey, the young Liverpool winger is not even near his prime at an astonishing 19 years of age, hence the stats are not a fair representation of the player. Nonetheless, as a youngster, Raheem Sterling has come on over the last year in his form and performances. He managed nine goals and seven assists over the campaign – and it’s no wonder, with his incredible pace capable of causing trouble for even the best defences. A PPG of 5.35 last year has certainly grabbed many Fantasy managers’ attention, and with an average of 4.85 PPG over his two seasons he could easily hit a wonder season, similar to Ramsey last year. At 8.5 he has become the second most owned player of the picks, which seems entirely justified given his form both last season and during pre-season.
2013/14 PPG: 5.35
Average PPG: 4.85
Juan Mata
(Man United, 9.0, 22.4% ownership)
Probably my favourite pick of the bunch. Juan Mata has come off the back off a dreadful season by his standards at probably the best time for us Fantasy managers. From being out in the cold at Chelsea to joining a crumbling Man United under David Moyes, the Spaniard has hit his lowest price since his arrival to England. If we ignore what was a miserable 2013/14 season, we have a 9.0 midfielder that has averaged 8.5 goals, nearly 16 assists and 6.27 PPG over three seasons. There are many other factors that cement Mata in my team, besides the stats and his price, including his preseason form, United’s opening fixtures, a manager that plays very attacking football, little or no rotation due to no Champions League fixtures and his occasional set-pieces. Watch this space.
2013/14 PPG: 5.43
Average PPG: 6.10
Cesc Fabregas
(Chelsea, 9.0, 19.9% ownership)
Probably the most interesting of the lot in my opinion is Cesc Fabregas. Sadly I have not had the honour of seeing him play in the Premier League, so this year will be very exciting. His stats from La Liga are exceptional and Chelsea have a fantastic player at their disposal to add some more creative genius to the midfield. Many have opted for Fabregas as an alternative to Hazard, with Elninorules warning that it may not be the best move. Having said that, if Fabregas avoids a deeper role, his time with Barcelona over the last three years has shown that he is more than capable of delivering at the highest level. And at 9.0, should Cesc establish himself quickly as a creative source, he may well be a contender for the top-scoring midfielder. Watch. This. Space.
2013/14 PPG: 7.92
Average PPG: 7.29