Baseline Bonus In Attack and Defence

Following on from previous articles by Jonty and Mata Is The Juan into bonus point allocation in the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) game I thought I’d delve deeper into the statistics. This analysis aims to show who the top forwards and defenders are if clean sheets, goals and assists are removed from their total score in the Bonus Point System (BPS) which FPL uses to calculate bonus points. This will give players a baseline BPS and aims to show which have strong potential to gain bonus even if they fail to keep a clean sheet and are not involved in a goal.

Defenders

Here is a list of the top 12 defenders in terms of total BPS over the first seven weeks of the season, with figures also for the number of goal, assist and clean sheet points taken away and their final baseline BPS score. For defenders, goals are worth 12 BPS points, assists are worth nine BPS points and clean sheets 12 BPS points.  I think look at the new top 12 based on baseline BPS.

Current Top 12 BPS Magnets In Defence

Branislav Ivanovic : 181 BPS : – 2 goals, 1 assist, 3 CS (-69) = 112 BPS
Cesar Azpilicueta : 175 BPS : – 1 assist, 3 CS (-45) = 130 BPS
Leighton Baines : 163 BPS : – 1 goal, 3 assists, 1 CS (-51) = 112 BPS
Ashley Williams : 158 BPS : – 3 CS (-36) = 122 BPS
Ryan Bertrand : 152 BPS : – 1 goal, 1 assist, 3 CS (-57) = 95 BPS
Andrew Robertson : 148 BPS : – 1 assist, 2 CS (-33) = 115 BPS
Phil Jagielka : 144 BPS : – 1 goal, 1 CS (-24) = 120 BPS
Jose Fonte : 144 BPS: – 3 CS (-36) = 108 BPS
Neil Taylor : 144 BPS : – 1 assist, 3 CS (-45) = 99 BPS
Nathanial Clyne : 143 BPS : – 1 goal, 1 assist, 3 CS (-57) = 86 BPS
Vincent Kompany : 139 BPS : – 2 CS (-24) = 115 BPS
Jason Shackell : 137 BPS: – 3CS (-36) = 101 BPS

All of these 12 men have played every minute of the season so far (630) apart from Robertson (609) and Neil Taylor (592). Below is the baseline BPS/min, in order, for the ‘new’ top 12.

The Baseline BPS Magnets in Defence

Azpilicueta = 0.206
Williams = 0.194
Jagielka = 0.190
Robertson = 0.189
Rio Ferdinand = 0.184
Kompany = 0.183
Ivanovic = 0.178
Baines = 0.178
Dejan Lovren = 0.178
Fonte = 0.171
Taylor = 0.167
Fabricio Coloccini = 0.165

Out go Bertrand, Clyne and Shackell and in comes Ferdinand into fifth, as well as Lovren and Coloccini.

Conclusions

• Azpilicueta is the biggest baseline BPS magnet defender in the game.
• There are five full-backs and seven centre-backs. Neither position seems to have have much of an advantage over the other in terms of baseline BPS.
• Fonte has the best baseline BPS/min out of all of the Southampton defenders. He also scored three goals last season and could perhaps be an alternative to Clyne and Bertrand.
• Jagielka would likely be the defender to get some bonus if Everton keep a clean sheet, providing the other three defenders don’t get attacking returns.
• Ferdinand! Where did that come from? He may be a cheeky pick-up later in the season when QPR have some kind fixtures and defensive form.

Forwards

I’ve been intrigued as to why Chelsea striker Diego Costa has been getting very few bonus points even when he’s consistently scoring goals. He has scored in six different games but has only picked up bonus points in three. For this analysis I’ve looked at the eight top strikers in terms of BPS and have removed their goal (24 BPS) and assist (9 BPS) points to give a new Baseline BPS score.

Current Top 8 BPS Magnets in Attack

Diego Costa : 238 BPS : 9G (-216) = 22 BPS
Sergio Aguero : 160 BPS : 5G (-120) = 40 BPS
Steven Naismith : 157 BPS : 4G (-96) = 61 BPS
Leonardo Ulloa : 142 BPS : 5G (-120) = 22 BPS
Saido Berahino : 141 BPS : 5G (-120) = 21 BPS
Graziano Pelle : 136 BPS: 4G, 1A (-105) = 31 BPS
Wayne Rooney : 127 BPS: 3G, 2A (-90) = 37 BPS
Nikica Jelavic : 110 BPS : 4G (-96) = 14 BPS

As Naismith, Ulloa and Aguero often don’t play up front alone, I checked out the baseline BPS of their strike partners too.

Romelu Lukaku : 85 BPS : 2G, 1A (-57) = 28 BPS
Jamie Vardy : 86 BPS : 1G, 4A (-69) = 17 BPS
David Nugent : 50 BPS : 1G (-24) = 26 BPS
Edin Dzeko : 93 BPS : 2G, 1A (-57) = 36 BPS

The Baseline BPS Magnets in Attack

I then divided their minutes played by their ‘new’ BPS score to find their baseline BPS/min. These are the results:

Naismith : 0.108
Aguero : 0.091
Dzeko : 0.085
Rooney : 0.073
Vardy : 0.057
Pelle: 0.049
Lukaku : 0.047
Nugent : 0.047
Ulloa : 0.039
Costa : 0.038
Berahino : 0.033
Jelavic : 0.023

Conclusions

• Naismith is the biggest baseline BPS magnet out of the forwards.
• Aguero and Dzeko sit second and third respectively, which is probably a result of the number of attempts and the possession that Manchester City have had.
• Costa is near the bottom of the list with a measly 0.038 baseline BPS/min. Combine this with the fact that Azpilicueta is the defensive BPS magnet in the league and Cesc Fabregas has the most BPS out of all the midfielders and it’s easy to see why Costa rarely gets bonus.
• Forwards get 24 BPS for every goal so in teams like Chelsea where plenty of players are clocking up high BPS scores, it looks like (on most occasions) Costa will need at least two goals if he’s to end up with some bonus points.
• No one will pick their strikers solely based on their BPS/min, but it does give an indication as to which forwards are more likely to get bonus points if they score in a match. This could be crucial when deciding where to place the captain’s armband.