Community Submissions

Midfield Zonal Analysis – Strong Teams vs Weak Defences

The key to understanding whether an attacking player will hit the ground running against particular sides is in knowing how adept particular teams are at defending in certain areas of the pitch. This article provides a zonal analysis of different teams’ attacking and defensive strengths and weaknesses in midfield. It will also aim to identify the strongest midfield options over the coming six weeks based on their team’s strengths and their opposition’s weaknesses.

Methodology

In order to ascertain each team’s strong and weak areas on the field when attacking and defending, I used the members statistics tables to firstly calculate the total numbers of chances conceded, as well as created. Using this, I then broke the data down by the area of the field these chances took place in: the left zone, centre zone or right zone. For clarity, it is worth noting that both left and right zones were from an attacking perspective (so the right zone would be right midfielder vs. left-back and the left zone would be left midfielder vs. right-back).

With this information, I was then able to derive the percentage of chances conceded / created in each zone of the field. This was tested for significance at a 0.95 level relative to the average number of chances conceded / created within that area. Teams above that figure could be said to be significantly stronger in that area of the field at creating chances, and vice versa for conceding chances. This then formed the fulcrum of the findings and told me which teams were creating significantly more chances than others in each zone of the field.

However, for the purpose of this article, I felt that merely basing it on numbers wasn’t enough. Obviously, sides like Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester City are likely to create significantly more chances in all three zones of the field. Similarly, the likes of Burnley, QPR and Leicester tended to concede a significant amount of opportunities all over the park. Thus, I felt it would be of little value here to include these teams in all three zones.

As a result, by taking the percentage of chances created in each zone into account, I have limited teams to no more than two zones on the field. Consequently, in order to be included in each zone, a team must have created a significantly greater number of chances in that zone relative to other teams AND that zone should have represented a significant proportion of their chances created or conceded as a whole (that figure being 36% or more).

This gave me a list of several teams who are significantly stronger / weaker than their opposition in each zone of the field.

Results

I have pulled the findings together on the pitch below. This image is also available by clicking here.  The red arrows on the right-hand side represent the teams that are weakest in each area of the pitch, that is, teams who have a significantly greater number of chances conceded relative to the average in that zone. Conversely, the arrows on the left hand side show the teams that are strongest in each area of the pitch – so those that create a significantly greater number of chances and / or percentage of chances in that area relative to others.

midstrength

With a view to keeping this article a reasonable length, I am not going to post the actual data for the top teams here, but I can make this available in the comments section should anybody wish to see it.

So, what does this all mean from a Fantasy perspective? Well, now that we know which areas of the field are strongest and weakest for different teams, we can begin to factor that in to our fixture analysis in order to identify promising fixtures for players coming up.

In order to understand the difficulty of the top teams’ fixtures in each zone, I have provided each team with a coefficient, from 1-20, based on the chances conceded from that zone to date. The higher the coefficient, the more chances that team concedes in that zone of the pitch relative to other teams.

With these coefficients in place, I then looked at the teams that were strongest at creating chances in each of the three areas of the park and the corresponding player(s) we would typically be looking at in those positions of the field from a Fantasy perspective. I then ranked them in order of difficulty in terms of opposition over the next six Gameweeks, with a minimum figure of 21 (1+2+3+4+5+6) and a maximum figure of 105 (20+19+18+17+16+15) possible. In essence, the higher the figure, the easier the run of fixtures.

Left Zone

Chelsea (77/105): Eden Hazard
Everton (68/105): Leighton Baines, Ross Barkley
Crystal Palace (64/105): Yannick Bolasie
Sunderland (61/105): Connor Wickham, Adam Johnson
Stoke City (40/105): Victor Moses

Central Zone

Tottenham (71/105): Christian Eriksen, Nacer Chadli, Ryan Mason
Liverpool (66/105): Philippe Coutinho, Adam Lallana
Swansea (65/105): Gylfi Sigurdsson
Arsenal (61/105): Alexis Sanchez, Aaron Ramsey

Right Zone:

Man City (80/105): Jesus Navas
QPR (79/105): Eduardo Vargas
West Ham (77/105): Stewart Downing, Enner Valencia
Burnley (58/105): Kieren Trippier, Scott Arfield
Leicester (56/105): Rhys James, Leonardo Ulloa

Conclusions

  • Eden Hazard has big potential to explode over the next six Gameweeks. Not only is he currently in form, his fixtures are kind in terms of facing sides who are relatively weak at defending that left zone of the pitch. This could well be his time to shine.
  • Similarly, the fixtures fall kindly for the likes of Jesus Navas, Leighton Baines, Eduardo Vargas and Stewart Downing, whilst chances created from that side of the pitch demonstrates further potential for the likes of Aguero, Lukaku, Austin and Sakho respectively.
  • Whilst not an exhaustive tool, there are some strong teams who are coming up against equally strong teams at defending that area thus far. These being Burnley, Leicester (right zone), Arsenal (central zone) and Stoke (left zone). Thus, owners of Moses, Trippier and Sanchez may be slightly wary – although do bear in mind that these players are still creating chances with regularity, and will likely continue to do so regardless of fixture.
16 Comments Post a Comment
  1. J0E
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    Exceptional work. A really strong argument for drafting in Hazard.

  2. Nasri Loves Kompany
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    Brilliant! Feeling better about my Fab --> Haz swap

  3. Owd Big 'Ed
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    For those of you who are interested, the actual figures are below. The first figure represents the number of chances created in that area of the pitch to date, whilst the second figure represents the proportion of that team's chances created that have come from that zone.

    Left Zone (attacking perspective)
    The Strong:
    • Chelsea (61, 40%)
    • Everton (55, 46%)
    • Stoke (51, 40%)
    • Crystal Palace (42, 42%)
    • Sunderland (40, 39%)

    The Weak:
    • Hull City (57, 36%)
    • Burnley (55, 38%)
    • Swansea (50, 36%)
    • Man Utd (43, 38%)

    Central Zone
    The Strong:
    • Arsenal (67, 42%)
    • Liverpool (51, 40%)
    • Tottenham (48, 38%)
    • Swansea (40, 50%)

    The Weak:
    • Hull City (57, 36%)
    • Sunderland (50, 37%)
    • Swansea (49, 35%)
    • Liverpool (45, 48%)
    • Man City (39, 42%)

    Right Zone (attacking perspective)
    The Strong:
    • Man City (68, 39%)
    • West Ham (48, 36%)
    • Burnley (34, 37%)
    • QPR (43, 35%)
    • Leicester (36, 40%)

    The Weak:
    • Leicester (59, 40%)
    • Aston Villa (55, 41%)
    • QPR (52, 37%)
    • Everton (48, 43%)
    • West Brom (46, 41%)

  4. Jawain - 9th overall 2014/2…
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    Exceptional analysis.

    On the basis of it do you think:

    Betrand + Tadic + Fabregas TO Terry + Downing + Hazard worth a minus 4 this week?

  5. Enzo the Baker
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    My vote for best community article this month for sure. Excellent idea, analysis and presentation.

  6. John t penguin
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    Check to see what month this is
    Bum still November

    Though I would say any article that talks up navas is going to get pelters

    Nice article wish I had used word coefficient

    • 10 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    Excellent article. Great analysis and some really interesting options there. 🙂 Unlike a lot of analysis that can be done, I do actually think this has the potential to be reflected in points returns. Thanks Big 'Ed. 😀

  7. Messi & fabregas
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    excellent, well done

  8. tm245
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    Fantastic work. Wow.

  9. olekevin
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    Di Maria (HUL, STO, sou, LIV, ast, NEW, spu)
    or
    Yaya Toure (sou, sun, EVE, lei, CRY, westb, BUR)

    Till January Wildcard.

  10. Rossamous
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    I feel like it's helpful to include the fullbacks of the 'Weak' and 'Strong' teams so that you know who to avoid or get:

    LEFT STRONG:
    Chelsea-Azpil
    Everton-Baines
    CP-Ward
    Sunderland-Reveillere
    Stoke-Pieters

    LEFT WEAK:
    Hull-Elmohomady/Chester
    Man u-Valencia/Rafael
    Burnley-Trippier
    Swans-Rangel

    RIGHT STRONG:
    Man City-Sagna/Zaba
    QPR-Isla
    West Ham-Jenkinson
    Burnley-Trippier
    Leicester-de Laet

    RIGHT WEAK:
    Leicester-Schlupp
    Aston Villa-Cissokho
    QPR-Yun
    Everton-Baines
    West Brom-Pocognoli

    Also I find it interesting that attacking fullbacks, i.e. Baines and Trippier, open up more opportunities for their opponents on their respective side of play, which is to be expected, while creating more opportunities for their own teammates. Also, will more unproven players such as Yun face rotational issues by constantly giving up chances on their side of play, or is this more of a team issue? Thoughts?

    1. Rossamous
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 3 months ago

      May need to switch the full backs for the 'Weak' teams

      Left Weak:
      Hull-Dawson/Brady
      Man U-Shaw
      Burnley-Ward
      Swans-N. Taylor

      Right Weak:
      Leicester-de Laet
      Aston Villa-Hutton
      QPR-Isla
      Everton-Coleman
      West Brom-Wisdom

      Sorry for the confusion. Highlights would be when a Strong fullback goes up against a Weak fullback on a given weak. Examples include in the next 5:

      Left (strong) vs. Right (weak)
      Chelsea: none
      Everton: GW16 Baines vs. Wisdom
      CP: GW 14 Ward vs. Hutton
      Sunderland: none
      Stoke: none

      Right (strong) vs. Left (weak)
      Man City: none
      QPR: GW14 Isla vs. Taylor and GW15 Isla vs. Ward
      West Ham: GW15 Jenkinson vs. Taylor
      Burnley: none
      Leicester: none

      Not sure if this analysis carries much weight. Look forward to Baines tearing apart Wisdom GW16, and Isla up against some weak left backs GW14 and 15, especially if Taylor is suspended for a game, but not sure anyone would want to invest in a QPR defense.

    2. The Raging Bull
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 3 months ago

      perhaps i'm misunderstanding this, right weak: baines? Cissokho? thought they were both left backs?

      1. Camp No No
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 3 months ago

        Pocognoli as well. And it's a bit harsh to say he's weak, . Or Cissokho. Baines maybe in the sense that his runs forward open space behind him, but...

  11. DingoDongo
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    Great article. Still torn between Fabs consistency & missing out on a potential Hazard explosion

  12. Owd Big 'Ed
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 3 months ago

    Just realised that Rhys James should actually be Matthew James. God knows where I got Rhys from!