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Defenders, Midfielders And Forwards Compared

This aim of this article is to provide a detailed analysis of the top points scorers among defenders, midfielders and forwards in terms of points and value, whilst explaining relevant trends found. This is an expansion on my previous article regarding the analysis of the Chelsea trio Oscar, Eden Hazard and Cesc Fabregas. 

Let’s start with the defenders. I have chosen the top 15 defenders in terms of overall score and carried out some extensive analysis to determine their points per minute played as well as their points per million.

Defenders

Figure 1

defenders

Looking at the date in Figure 1, we can clearly see a general trend in that both Chelsea and Southampton defenders are at the top of this list for points/min. This is not surprising as they have kept 11 and 10 cleansheets respectively so far. However, their high points per minute is not just attributed to clean sheets, but their attacking exploits which earn them significant merit.

With three assists in a row coupled with his spectacular early-season form, Branislav Ivanovic remains at the summit of the standings followed closely by his team-mate John Terry and Southampton’s Ryan Bertrand and Nathaniel Clyne. I have added Laurent Koscielny here for comparison and so far he has shown an impressive points per minute ratio which rivals the top three. It should be noted though that he has only played 1015 minutes due to earlier injuries and therefore any comparisons should be made with caution.

Elsewhere in the table, full-backs Gael Clichy and Cesar Azpilicueta show impressive results, yielding a better points per minute average than Leighton Baines. While Baines has seen a decline in form, partly due to Everton’s inability to shut out their opposition, it should be noted that rotation has hit the Chelsea and Man City full backs, whilst Baines is at least nailed on in his spot.

In terms of value, the two Saints full-backs are top, followed by Terry and, surprisingly, Andre Wisdom. This West Brom gem has nailed down a berth at full-back, and with Tony Pulis at the helm, I would expect his value to rise.

Midfielders

Figure 2.

midfielders

Unsurprisingly, Arsenal’s Alexis Sanchez has topped the table of best performing midfielders with a whopping 0.08182 ppm, second only to Sergio Aguero. The red hot Chilean has been in fantastic form lately and looks set to continue running riot in the Premier League. The second spot is one which many people would not expect. For those of you who read my previous article, you would know how good Oscar has been and the young Brazilian should not be underestimated or overlooked.

Third place goes to another young star, this time a Belgian. Given a chance to prove his worth, Tottenham’s Nacer Chadli has paid dividends to many managers who invested in him. David Silva and Angel Di Maria follow with similar results, though it should be noted that the Argentine’s minutes have been limited due to injury and a fair comparison cannot be drawn.

Popular Chelsea duo Hazard and Fabregas are also offering strong returns and value. Elsewhere in the table, we can see that Stewart Downing has profited from his move to the tip of the midfield diamond by retruning an impressive 0.06197 points per minute whilst being the top player for value.

Speaking of which, the mid-priced midfielders offer exceptional value as we can see from looking at their points per million, with Downing being the best value midfielder to have, followed by Swansea’s Gylfi Sigurdsson and Chadli who are both equally priced. It is worth noting, though, that Sigurdsson will miss the next three games due to picking up a red card in the FA Cup. Compare this to top scorer Alexis Sanchez who is down in seventh, it just goes to show that there are a wide variety of effective options for a strong midfield.

Forwards

Figure 3.

forwards

The player with the highest points per minute is Sergio Aguero. The little Argentine has managed a whopping 0.09192 points for each minute he has been on the field this season and has 14 goals and three assists to his name in the Premier League. The league’s highest goalscorer, Diego Costa, has 17 goals and two assists in the league and managed 0.07484 points per minute, which is still brilliant and third highest compared with all the forwards.

Harry Kane has registered the second highest average at 0.07719 points per minute and, having played a similar number of minutes to Aguero, has chalked up eight goals and five assists in the Premier League. Along the table, we can see one of the Hammers’ new signings, Diafra Sakho, with the fourth highest average at 0.07031 whilst the other new signing, Enner Valencia, has 0.06101. Though his game time has been hampered by a back injury, Sahko has still shown some impressive form and looks be the better option in the Hammers’ frontline.

I have added Arsenal’s Olivier Giroud and Manchester United’s Radamel Falcao here just to get an idea of their results, as many people are considering them for their Wildcards. Though only playing 620 and 694 minutes respectively, they are showing some impressive statistics, having averages of 0.06774 and 0.06628 points per minute. Game time is an issue, and though Giroud looks to be nailed on as striker for the Gunners, rotation looks inevitable for the Columbian. It may seem strange at first that Charlie Austin has quite a low points per minute average but then we have to take into account that he has the second highest game time of the forwards in the table (1731 minutes), behind only Graziano Pelle (1950 minutes).

A quick look at the value table on the right shows that there is a lot of value to be had in the mid-priced forwards this year and the top six are priced at less than 8.0. Austin tops the table with 16.77 points per million, whilst his two English compatriots, Saido Berahino and Kane, are a close second and third with 16 and 15.25 respectively.

Team Analysis for Forwards and Midfielders

Figure 4.

teams

Figure 4. shows the points per minute played for the most popular forwards and midfielders of the top teams in the table. Looking at Arsenal assets first, we can see that Sanchez is undoubtedly the strongest performer compared to Giroud and Cazorla. Costa and Oscar are almost tied with the highest points per minute for Chelsea compared to Hazard and Fabregas, though game time should be taken into account.

Liverpool are an interesting team to analyse as they have no real nailed-on forward who is performing at the moment, so I have compared their three best midfielders. Raheem Sterling is the stand-out option here, with Jordan Henderson and Steven Gerrard  close behind. For Mancherster City, Aguero is still the best option for points but, interestingly, Silva has a higher points per minute average than Yaya Toure, who is currently playing for his country in the Africa Cup of Nations.

Manchester counterparts United are the most interesting to look at as we see ex-Chelsea star Juan Mata claim a higher points per minute than both strikers Wayne Rooney and Robin van Persie (0.05636 vs 0.05270 and 0.05097 respectively). Whilst rotation is an issue amongst the attacking United’s players, Mata seems to have impressed Lous van Gaal enough recently to earn him a place in the starting line-up. Priced at 8.5, he is surely one for the Watchlist if he continues to perform. Elsewhere, both Tadic and Sigurdsson have out-performed their forward counterparts. Kane and Chadli are the stand-out options in the Spurs attack, though Eriksen is not far behind. For the Hammers, Sahko and Downing look like good options, the latter being more secure in terms of game time. Finally, Everton forward Romelu Lukaku has yet to live up to his hype as Kevin Mirallas comfortably beats him with a higher points per minute.

Conclusion

In conclusion, we have carried out a simple but detailed look at the points per minute played in the Premier League for the highest scoring defenders, midfielders and forwards. Aguero remains a Fantasy Football necessity according to this analysis, along with Sanchez and Costa and it would be interesting to see how many managers try to fit this trio into their teams. The wealth of budget options this year, particularly among forwards and midfielders, offers incredibly good value and could be the key to forming a balanced and effective team.

43 Comments Post a Comment
  1. J0E
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 2 months ago

    Great stuff and good to see my wildcarded defence getting the thumbs up in terms of points per minute and value.

    1. JK - Cønt ⭐
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      I take it you're going big on defence Jonty?

      1. J0E
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        9 years, 2 months ago

        Not huge as in Baines and Ivanovic.

        I've got Terry, Koscielny and Clyne as my main three each week with Wisdom and Cameron on the bench. Cameron is the only blot on this, other than that I'm happy if that defence can last the whole season bar injury.

        1. JK - Cønt ⭐
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          9 years, 2 months ago

          see if I have a WBA defender I'll want to use them

          I suppose it depends if you've held Clyne all this time

          I'm looking at

          Terry, Kos, WBA, Wollschied and a WBA guy with the last 3 rotating

          Panti as play every week keeper

          1. J0E
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 14 Years
            9 years, 2 months ago

            I've got Foster and Pantilimon. Bit greedy but allows me to have WBA coverage or even double WBA coverage at times when one of ARS, CHE or SOU have a really tough game.

            1. JK - Cønt ⭐
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 12 Years
              9 years, 2 months ago

              fair enough

              No right way to approach it, such is the beauty of FPL

              I have low TV, no way I could afford that, so I have to sacrifice

              I have decide that Arsenal defence is the one to be on so it's then a simple choice between Terry or Saints

              I'll take Terry on that one

              1. J0E
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • Has Moderation Rights
                • 14 Years
                9 years, 2 months ago

                Kosc is a bit of a vanity buy for me. Its those occasional goals I'm after - need to find little differentials like that to push on.

                1. JK - Cønt ⭐
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 12 Years
                  9 years, 2 months ago

                  I like him, I barely owned an Arsenal defender all last season

                  About 4 GWs from the end I brought Kos in and he scored the only goal in a 1-0 win and got me 15 points that helped me secure ML victory

                  It was Inssie's post on BAPs that tipped it

                  I like Fonte but no room at the inn

                  1. J0E
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • Has Moderation Rights
                    • 14 Years
                    9 years, 2 months ago

                    I looked at either Clyne and Bertrand...both so similar. Clyne has slightly lower ownership in the top 10k and slightly higher goal threat. Bertrand has greater assist threat. At 3k overall I need that little differential. Fonte is good for bonus if there are few goals, but he can't match the full backs assist or goal opportunity.

                    1. J0E
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • Has Moderation Rights
                      • 14 Years
                      9 years, 2 months ago

                      I went for Clyne in the end.

                      1. JK - Cønt ⭐
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 12 Years
                        9 years, 2 months ago

                        I'm not even 100k after my horror show last GW

                        If I could pick i would take Clyne, made a massive error shipping him.

    2. tm245
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      I am skipping Southampton and going for WBA, purely as a cash saver but hopefully to cover similar points as well.

      Ivan Kosc Wisdom Baird 4.0

  2. tm245
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 2 months ago

    Wow. Lots to consider here. Nice work. I just wondered in the main thread whether any sideways price moves to Downing Kane Austin were worth it -- this is helpful.

    1. J0E
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      Its making me think twice about shifting Downing - there are so few players that can match him for that price or under.

      1. JK - Cønt ⭐
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        9 years, 2 months ago

        I've said this for a while, it really depends on what you got him for

        I've never owned Downing, so I'll be looking elsewhere given he's now nearly 7m

      2. tm245
        • 12 Years
        9 years, 2 months ago

        Right, as I said in my other post, he Kane and Austin would be the 7-7.5m stars we are missing this year but for the slower price changes. Just because Puncheon Defoe and Moses are the same price doesn't mean that they are comparable since the latter are basically still near their starting ownership (Defoe much more so!) so the market forces don't seem as striking.

  3. Jaffalicious! #SomosCubanos
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 2 months ago

    Thanks Jonty for the quick publication! Hope you all find this information useful 🙂

    1. tm245
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      I'm still reading! Great work.

    2. Ruth_NZ
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      Good research but I don't think it goes far enough because you are identifying players but not looking at the overall shape of a squad.

      In my view there are three factors that should decide the make-up of an ideal squad:

      1) Captain options. There should be 2 or 3 players you will use as captains. Price is less relevant, points per game (Figure 1A) is the measure needed here.
      2) Other players. These should be selected on the basis of value which is a different calculation to any you have used. Value is points per game per £1m cost.
      3) Excess budget. Once you have compiled a squad based on factors 1 and 2 you will have excess budget. You must then decide how to upgrade your squad to use it. Maybe look at defensive rotations using slightly more expensive players, maybe decide to opt for a more expensive option from a particular team because their selection is more certain.

      Of course in all these cases it is the points scored and value achieved in the remaining 16 games that matters. What has happened up to now can only serve as a guideline. And that's where judgement comes in. Which teams/players do you think will improve over the last 16 games? Which have over performed so far and could be expected to move back towards the median?

      I am not interested to engage in a discussion about individual players because that is a matter of judgement, knowledge and opinion. But what can be evidenced from your research is this: the ideal formation to build your team around is 4-3-3. Not the 3-4-3 that is generally assumed and not 3-5-2 either. In actual fact I think that 4-4-2 would usually be best but for specific reasons this season it is 4-3-3.

      The reason for this is that defenders dominate the value charts. And in particular premium defenders justify their prices in a way that premium midfielders and forwards generally fail to do. If you look at your value charts (points/£1m, although points/game/£1m would be better) you will see no premium forward scoring better than Costa at 10.63. Amongst the mids there is no premium mid scoring better than Sanchez at 12.52 (unless you count Eriksen at 13.54 but he is really a mid-price mid). However amongst the defenders you have a host of premium defenders achieving higher value numbers than that.

      Your research is also skewed by concentrating on the 15 highest total point scorers in each category. When looking at value total points are irrelevant. Points per £1m invested (or better points per £1m per game) are what is relevant. And when you look at that you will discover 19 GKs and defenders in the top 30 players on value so far (including a number of premium defenders but NO premium mids or forwards). And places 31-60 on value show a very similar picture.

      Put very simply, defenders generally and premium defenders specifically justify their cost better than midfielders or strikers. It therefore makes sense to put extra money into premium defenders and to play 4 defenders in your team.

      You can have a playing midfielder or striker on the bench at very little extra cost to having a playing defender on the bench. Ayoze costs 4.6 compared to, say, PvA at 4.2. OK, by playing 4-4-2 instead of 3-4-3 you might have 0.4 more budget sitting on your bench every week. But the playing value achieved by the four defenders in your team will make up for that. And having Ayoze coming off your bench to play gives you better chances in general than having PvA coming off the bench. Because if PvA had a favourable fixture you'd be playing him anyway.

      The thing that edges it towards 4-3-3 rather than 4-4-2 this season is the presence of a number of excellent value forwards in the 5.5-6.0 range. Kane, Austin, Ings, possibly Berahino, possibly Defoe. These look far better in terms of point scoring potential than their midfield counterparts in the 5.5-6.0 range. And if, as you say, Aguero, Costa and Sanchez are essential as your captain options then unless you play 4-3-3 you have no room for a Kane or an Austin.

      4-3-3 with 3 premium defenders and 2 rotating value defenders; 2 premium midfielders and 1 value midfielder plus 2 low priced mids who start for their clubs on your bench; 2 premium forwards and 1 value forward. That's about the right squad shape according to the numbers. Although you could also make a case for 3 premium mids, 1 premium forward and 2 value forwards. Depends on how happy you are using a midfielder as your captain.

      My wildcard team, in any case, will be designed for 4-3-3 and it will therefore be quite far from the template. Which makes me happy because if I am right (and choose the right players) my team will rise up the rankings. And if not I will learn something from it.

      1. RedLightning
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 13 Years
        9 years, 2 months ago

        Nice analysis, but I think it's flawed.

        There are currently six forwards and ten midfielders, but only one defender, with 5.0 or more points per game so far, and it is not difficult to include seven of these forwards and midfielders in your squad, as long as you don't try to include too many of the more expensive ones.

        Your 4th defender is unlikely to score as many points as your 3rd forward or 4th midfielder, and that is why 3-4-3 and 3-5-2 are the formations chosen by most successful players.

        1. Ruth_NZ
          • 9 Years
          9 years, 2 months ago

          This is where it comes down to player selection. If you choose successful players you will do well, if not you will do badly. However...

          I pointed out in my post that the 4th and 5th defender would rotate for the 4th spot in my team each week. It would be a cheap 1 from 2 rotation. Let's take Hutton and Wisdom as an example, Villa and WBA have a perfect rotation and both were popular 4.0 options when the season began.

          If you had that pair and always played the one with the home game if fit you would have amassed 78 points from your 4th defender slot in 22 games. And bear in mind you must have a 4th and 5th defender anyway whether you play them or not.

          Well, only 16 midfielders have scored 78 points or better over 22 games and only Downing of those could be considered a budget midfielder (starting price 5.5) suitable for the 4th midfielder slot in a 3-4-3. I guess you could also include Sigurdsson (starting price 6.0) though he'd have likely got into a 4-3-3 setup as well, his value was so good.

          The permutations with player selection are so varied that it's impossible to provide a definitive comparison. I know that 3-4-3 is historically the most successful formation because I read Triggerlips' blog. But I think there is room to question that, on this season's results at least.

          1. RedLightning
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 13 Years
            9 years, 2 months ago

            I make it 76 points from 22 games for Hutton and Wisdom (34 points from 11 home games for Wisdom, 35 from 9 home games for Hutton, and 7 points from away games for Wisdom in GWs 10 and 17 when Hutton did not play). That's an average of 3.45 points per game.

            However, my 2nd and 3rd forwards are currently Austin (5.5 points per game) and Kane (5.0 points per game, but 6.5 points per game from GW10 onwards), and my 4th midfielder is Chadli (5.4 points per game), so these should easily outscore your rotating 4th and 5th defenders unless the Pulis effect results in a dramatic improvement in Wisdom's scores.

            (I do also have Wisdom as my 4th defender, so I can still play 4 at the back if I want to, but I expect my normal formation to be either 3-4-3 or 3-5-2).

            The game is of course about trade-offs and compromises - my compromise is to leave out Costa, which allows me to strengthen my midfield and defence - and I still have Sanchez, Hazard and Aguero as good captain options.

            There is a good argument for starting the season with 4-4-2 or 4-3-3 (I even considered starting with 5 at the back this season before thinking better of it), but once the season's bargains (such as Austin, Kane, Siggy, Chadli and Downing) have revealed themselves then 3-4-3 and 3-5-2 almost always do better in the second half of the season.

            If there is a difference this season, it isn't that 4-4-2 or 4-3-3 is now the best formation IMO (although it might be a useful occasional option) - it's that having three quality defenders in your squad is now more affordable than usual.

            1. Ruth_NZ
              • 9 Years
              9 years, 2 months ago

              You may be right, you have probably seen more FPL seasons than me.

              Your last point definitely resonates. Because of the value in budget strikers (Kan, Austin etc.) and mid-price midfielders (Downing, Sigurdsson, Eriksen, Oscar, Chadli) it could be better to be playing 3-4-3 or 3-5-2 but in that case with 3 premium defenders.

              The premium defenders are delivering their value better than premium mids and forwards as I described earlier. So having settled on 3 potential captains (which probably means Aguero, Sanchez and one from Hazard and Costa for most people) you would be better to confine yourself mainly to mid-price and budget mids and strikers and to have 3 premium defenders. Rather than to go for as many premium mids and forwards as you can get at the cost of having 5 cheap defenders.

              A team with ADM and Silva or Toure in it may look more sexy than one with Eriksen and Downing for example. But investing the extra cash in premium defenders is probably a better use of it from a point scoring point of view.

              Thanks for your comments, they have been very useful.

  4. Dr. Agabuse
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 2 months ago

    Why does Austin have a better Value when he's more expensive and has less goals per minute than Kane?

    1. RedLightning
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      That's because Harry Kane only played 67 minutes in his first 5 matches, scoring 6 points in total, which is good in terms of points per minute but poor when it comes to value. Points per minute can be very misleading in cases like this!

      It was only after scoring his first PL goal in 33 minutes in his 6th match that he started playing 90 minutes per match.

  5. Holmes
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 2 months ago

    This confirms that Giroud and Oscar MIGHT be better than Costa and 5.5m mid, cheers! 🙂

    1. Dr. Agabuse
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      The 5.5s are really only starting to roar (Moses, Punch)

  6. tm245
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 2 months ago

    Cisse ftw.

  7. Dr. Agabuse
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 2 months ago

    What is Manés ppm and pppound? Can I find that in the membersSection?

    1. Jaffalicious! #SomosCubanos
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      His Points per Min is 0.065521 and Points per £m is 9.385. He has only played 931 minutes though but if he can cement a starting role when he comes back, he looks a good option.

  8. walkman666
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 2 months ago

    Interesting. Thank you. Very cool data analysis.

    One thought: I am not sure if points per minute is the ultimate criterion given that for FPL purposes, we need/want players who have high ppm AND who play MANY minutes. In other words, it is not optimal to have a player with a high ppm if they get rotated.

  9. internal error
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 2 months ago

    Great article 😉

  10. Dr. Agabuse
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 2 months ago

    Oscars only issue is that he doesn't play all the games. Don't want to Boyd it too much

    1. Jaffalicious! #SomosCubanos
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      5th mid or another playing defender. Look at his PPM!

  11. The Gambler.
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 2 months ago

    @JONTY

    I dont have a good TV, so back line is a little weak, which would you go for?

    Option 1
    Foster, Pantimillon
    Jones, Bertrand, Bellerin, Hutton, Baird
    Hazard, Sanchez, Di Maria, Downing, LUCAS/4.3
    Aguero, Kane, COSTA

    Option 2
    Foster, Pantimillon
    Jones, Bertrand, Bellerin, Hutton, Baird
    Hazard, Sanchez, Di Maria, Downing, SILVA
    Aguero, Kane, AUSTIN

    1. J0E
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 2 months ago

      Are you a ManU fan by any chance? 😉

      Currently ADM doesn't deserve inclusion and there are good cheaper alternatives to Jones. Instead of ADM consider Oscar or Cazorla who are cheaper and currently on form. Bellerin will compete with Chambers and Lucas is just a no no. You can't wildcard and end up with Lucas - he offers nothing.

      1. The Gambler.
        • 14 Years
        9 years, 2 months ago

        Lol almost flagged u for abuse, i'm a liverpool man!

        Marney is who i currently have (he offers nothing) so was looking at saving £0.1m

        I'm ranked 1300 so dont want to mess this up (already hit the button).

        (Binned Rooney for Costa already)

        1. J0E
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 14 Years
          9 years, 2 months ago

          Ah many apologies. Same applies though - ADM and MAnU present a risk at the moment, think Jones could be a nice differential though.

  12. Skipdipper
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 2 months ago

    Foster
    Terry berty fonte
    Chadli Sanchez (c) haz adm
    Kane ings Aguero

    Myhill Boyd Baird wasi
    3.1iTB 1FT

    Not sure what to do so currently leaning towards the leave as is and bury head in sand approach and hope Costa does nothing!

    Thoughts anyone??

  13. McNulty
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 2 months ago

    Interesting to see oscar up there. Mourinho is more defensive in the CL so I think he's more likely to miss the odd game in that rather than the league so he could be a good option. I knew Kane was doing well but didn't realise his points per min was 2nd for the strikers, he seems like a season keeper at that price barring any injury, especially to those who got him early.