Cesc Fabregas is a firm favourite this week among managers, but he might not be as good a prospect as people think. In this article I look at why Fabregas may not produce the goods in each of the double Gameweek fixtures and why he doesn’t look capable of finishing off the season with a bang.
FÁBREGAS’ DIP IN FORM
It’s quite clear that Fabregas is failing to reproduce the same kind of form that he delivered in the first half of the season, which can be clearly seen in the table below.
2014 – Minutes 1671, Goals 2, Assists 13, Pass Completion 87.5%, Chances Created 59.
2015 – Minutes 952, Goals 1, Assists 3, Pass Completion 82.6%, Chances Created 22.
Even at Barcelona the Spaniard failed to replicate his goal involvement from the first half of the season in the latter rounds of fixtures. Across his three seasons at the Catalan club, he tallied up 28 goals and 43 assists in La Liga, with only eight of these goals and 15 of his assists coming in the second half of his seasons. Furthermore, when looking at his last six league matches (the same amount Chelsea have remaining) in each of the three seasons, his returns were poor, with just two assists and one goal — which he scored when playing as a centre forward — in 977 minutes.
During his first spell in the Premier League, Fabregas never encountered this problem. He maintained exceptional form throughout his seasons for the Gunners. It cannot be due to the style of La Liga which caused this problem, as the Spaniard is facing the same issue now.
FÁBREGAS AND SHORT RESTS
Chelsea travel to Leicester just three days after they play Arsenal, and four days after that they face Crystal Palace, but will this short break in between fixtures have much of an effect on Fabregas and his returns? The table below shows Fabregas’ returns in matches that have been played two, three or four days after his last fixture in any competition. To give a better clarification of how much a short break effects Fabregas, there is also a comparison with Eden Hazard and what percentage the stats are of their totals in all competitions.
Fabregas – Minutes 1558 (44%), Goals 2 (40%), Assists 7 (32%).
Hazard – Minutes 1788 (46%), Goals 8 (44%), Assists 8 (53%).
Fabregas does have a decent amount of assists in these matches, but it’s clear that these short breaks do have some sort of effect on him, whereas there seems to be no effect on Hazard at all.
As mentioned earlier in the article, the Spaniard suffers a drop in form in the second half of the season, so how have these conditions affected him in 2015 so far?
Fabregas – Minutes 450 (13%), Goals 0 (0%), Assists 1 (5%).
Hazard – Minutes 630 (16%), Goals 3 (17%), Assists 3 (20%).
Again we can see how much the loss of form and short breaks have taken its toll on him, especially in comparison with his Chelsea counterpart. The opposition cannot be brought into question either, as Fabregas faced Tottenham, Liverpool, Burnley, West Ham and Southampton. Eden Hazard also faced those five teams, as well as playing against Manchester City and Everton.
CHELSEA’S CORNERS
One of the reasons Fabregas is in many Fantasy football teams is the fact that he takes corners for a team who has scored the third highest number of goals from corners. In the first half of the season, Chelsea scored seven goals from corners, which was better than any other club, bar West Ham, who scored the same number. Over that period, Fabregas had a corner conversion of 28.6% and took 76% of Chelsea’s 120 corners. During 2015, Fabregas has taken 58% of Chelsea’s corners and has a lower conversion rate at 18.6%. Only one goal has been scored from a corner in this calendar year. Fabregas has taken far fewer of his team’s corners this year, has been less successful delivering them and his team have also been struggling to score from his corners — another slight problem to add to the list.
JOSÉ’S TACTICS
Chelsea beat Manchester United in Gameweek 33 at Stamford Bridge with as little as 29.5% of possession, whereas on average they have 57% of possession at home. Chelsea fans enjoy an average of 6.5 shots on target a game at Stamford Bridge, but last weekend it took just two shots on target for them to score. Jose Mourinho needs a win against Arsenal and three points elsewhere in order for Chelsea to win the league. So he may adopt the same tactical approach that he used against United when facing the Gunners on Sunday, especially being away from home. This possible tactical approach by Mourinho is a problem for Fabregas, as under this system against United, he created just one chance and had no shots.
WHAT TO DO?
Cesc Fabregas is more than capable of rewarding Fantasy football managers in his next two fixtures, but looking at the above evidence, he doesn’t seem appealing at all. Most managers will be bringing him in for just his next three games; Arsenal, Leicester and Crystal Palace. For me, there’s better value out there, and picking up an extra Chelsea defender may be more profitable if Mourinho decides to park the bus again.
8 years, 11 months ago
Fab fab fab plop