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Fabregas Isn’t So Fabulous

Cesc Fabregas is a firm favourite this week among managers, but he might not be as good a prospect as people think. In this article I look at why Fabregas may not produce the goods in each of the double Gameweek fixtures and why he doesn’t look capable of finishing off the season with a bang. 

FÁBREGAS’ DIP IN FORM

It’s quite clear that Fabregas is failing to reproduce the same kind of form that he delivered in the first half of the season, which can be clearly seen in the table below.

2014 – Minutes 1671, Goals 2, Assists 13, Pass Completion 87.5%, Chances Created 59.

2015 – Minutes 952, Goals 1, Assists 3, Pass Completion 82.6%, Chances Created 22.

Even at Barcelona the Spaniard failed to replicate his goal involvement from the first half of the season in the latter rounds of fixtures. Across his three seasons at the Catalan club, he tallied up 28 goals and 43 assists in La Liga, with only eight of these goals and 15 of his assists coming in the second half of his seasons. Furthermore, when looking at his last six league matches (the same amount Chelsea have remaining) in each of the three seasons, his returns were poor, with just two assists and one goal — which he scored when playing as a centre forward — in 977 minutes.

During his first spell in the Premier League, Fabregas never encountered this problem. He maintained exceptional form throughout his seasons for the Gunners. It cannot be due to the style of La Liga which caused this problem, as the Spaniard is facing the same issue now.

FÁBREGAS AND SHORT RESTS

Chelsea travel to Leicester just three days after they play Arsenal, and four days after that they face Crystal Palace, but will this short break in between fixtures have much of an effect on Fabregas and his returns? The table below shows Fabregas’ returns in matches that have been played two, three or four days after his last fixture in any competition. To give a better clarification of how much a short break effects Fabregas, there is also a comparison with Eden Hazard and what percentage the stats are of their totals in all competitions.

Fabregas – Minutes 1558 (44%), Goals 2 (40%), Assists 7 (32%).

Hazard – Minutes 1788 (46%), Goals 8 (44%), Assists 8 (53%).

Fabregas does have a decent amount of assists in these matches, but it’s clear that these short breaks do have some sort of effect on him, whereas there seems to be no effect on Hazard at all.

As mentioned earlier in the article, the Spaniard suffers a drop in form in the second half of the season, so how have these conditions affected him in 2015 so far?

Fabregas – Minutes 450 (13%), Goals 0 (0%), Assists 1 (5%).

Hazard – Minutes 630 (16%), Goals 3 (17%), Assists 3 (20%).

Again we can see how much the loss of form and short breaks have taken its toll on him, especially in comparison with his Chelsea counterpart. The opposition cannot be brought into question either, as Fabregas faced Tottenham, Liverpool, Burnley, West Ham and Southampton. Eden Hazard also faced those five teams, as well as playing against Manchester City and Everton.

CHELSEA’S CORNERS

One of the reasons Fabregas is in many Fantasy football teams is the fact that he takes corners for a team who has scored the third highest number of goals from corners. In the first half of the season, Chelsea scored seven goals from corners, which was better than any other club, bar West Ham, who scored the same number. Over that period, Fabregas had a corner conversion of 28.6% and took 76% of Chelsea’s 120 corners. During 2015, Fabregas has taken 58% of Chelsea’s corners and has a lower conversion rate at 18.6%. Only one goal has been scored from a corner in this calendar year. Fabregas has taken far fewer of his team’s corners this year, has been less successful delivering them and his team have also been struggling to score from his corners — another slight problem to add to the list.

JOSÉ’S TACTICS

Chelsea beat Manchester United in Gameweek 33 at Stamford Bridge with as little as 29.5% of possession, whereas on average they have 57% of possession at home. Chelsea fans enjoy an average of 6.5 shots on target a game at Stamford Bridge, but last weekend it took just two shots on target for them to score. Jose Mourinho needs a win against Arsenal and three points elsewhere in order for Chelsea to win the league. So he may adopt the same tactical approach that he used against United when facing the Gunners on Sunday, especially being away from home. This possible tactical approach by Mourinho is a problem for Fabregas, as under this system against United, he created just one chance and had no shots.

WHAT TO DO?

Cesc Fabregas is more than capable of rewarding Fantasy football managers in his next two fixtures, but looking at the above evidence, he doesn’t seem appealing at all. Most managers will be bringing him in for just his next three games; Arsenal, Leicester and Crystal Palace. For me, there’s better value out there, and picking up an extra Chelsea defender may be more profitable if Mourinho decides to park the bus again.

21 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Spectrum-FFS Doubles Champ
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 11 months ago

    Fab fab fab plop

  2. Ludo
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 11 months ago

    Interesting stuff, thanks!

    Has Cesc been taking fewer corners whilst on the pitch though, or is it just that he's played less in the second half of the season?

    As much as I dislike the concept of players being 'due', with the aerial prowess that Chelsea possess, they're due a few more goals from set pieces in the coming matches.

    1. The Sarjeant
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 11 months ago

      Tbh, I just used the members data and wouldn't know how to find that kind of information out.

      Thanks for the reply though!

    2. tokara
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 11 months ago

      Willian taking them

  3. sully29
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 11 months ago

    Not to mention that the Chelsea defenders are cheaper than Cesc as well. I've seen a few people struggling to fit all the big hitters they want into their WC team, this might be a smart way of freeing up cash.

    Not like there aren't plenty of alternatives to Cesc about either. The three Liverpool mids, Silva, Sanchez or even someone like Mata....

  4. Reedy
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 11 months ago

    Nice article. I didn't go for Fabregas because of the injuries to Chelsea's forward players (who's left for him to assist?). But one niggling doubt is whether Fabregas will play a false 9 role and reap the rewards of that? Do you think that's likely, or even an at all enticing prospect?

    1. The Sarjeant
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 11 months ago

      Yeah, there is a chance he could play in that role. But I don't think it's that enticing for a few reasons. As I mentioned in the article, Fabreagas doesn't perfrom that well towards the end of the season, and that role isn't his best role to play in. Yes he delivered goals and assists in that position for Barcelona, but he played many games in that position for them, and hasn't played for Chelsea there for a whole game before. I don't think he'd come out all guns blazing in his first game in that position, it'd take a bit of time to adapt to that role and Chelsea. Also another thing, by the Leicester game Costa/Drogba/Remy might be fit enough to play, which means he could only get one game in that position.

      1. Reedy
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 11 months ago

        Thanks Sarj, yep you answered my question already really in the article. I'm not sorry I left Fabs out now; seems like an acceptable risk.

  5. ellelelle
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 11 months ago

    I'm going to forget I ever read this.. I'm clearly in too deep.

    But seriously, when you compare Fabregas to Hazard.. I don't think that's fair. Hazard is an exceptional player.. he is almost an anomaly in terms of his consistency - there is no rival to that in mid field in the entire league! And he is coming into his prime.. probably heading towards the apex of his career, AND he hasn't had to deal with the same injuries. The sky is the limit for Hazard right now.. that must feel amazing.. Fighting your way back to fitness after injury and playing second fiddle is not the same kind of journey, not psychologically, nevermind physically!

    If you compare Fabregas stats to any other midfielder in a top 4 club right now I thnk it would come off a lot more favourably!

    I think your are right about the Mourinho tactics, though.. I think they will have the biggest impact on Fabregas and his games this week.

    I'd like to think Fabregas might have some fire in his belly against a former club, but I guess professionals are unlikely to think like punters.. that's really just confirmation bias on my behalf 😉

    1. The Sarjeant
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 11 months ago

      Your first sentence is pretty harsh. It took me hours to reaearch this article, piece it all together and write it. You disagree with one thing that I've written, and you want to forget you've ever read it?

      Fine, take away the Hazard comparison, the facts about Fabregas remain. I only added in Hazard to give some sort of comparison. I wanted to use a Chelsea midfielder to keep it fair and what other Chelsea midfielder is there to analyse which is a decent FPL pick?

      1. 5678
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 11 months ago

        He just means he owns Fabregeas and doesn't want to know this. Chill Sarj.

      2. ellelelle
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 11 months ago

        Whoops! The first sentence was referring to the the fact that I own Fabregas and only want to hear things that validate my choice! It was a joke. I'm sorry I thought that would've been clearer. If anything, I thought it would help you understand why I wanted to disagree with you!

        I still believe Hazard is an unfair comparison because he is probably the player of the season for many people! Hazard has had an exceptional season! The fact he is also in Chelsea doesn't make it fairer from a fpl point of view.. I think there would've been better ways to compare him, since for most the choice is not Hazard versus fabregas.. it would probably be fabregas versus sterling, silva or sanchez. But I understand you put a lot of work into this piece and I still found it interesting reading, despite the fact that I admit I will be biased 🙂

        1. The Sarjeant
          • 10 Years
          8 years, 11 months ago

          Ah sorry, I got the wrong end of the stick, my apologies.

  6. ConfusedFC
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 11 months ago

    Fab's second half of the season malice is a documented fact. If fact Barca even went to the extent of including this in their press release when Chelsea signed him. This season bar the last three games have been exactly according to that script which the above stats validate. Now the other side of the coin is the fact that Cesc more than all of us know this and could be motivated to prove his boyhood club and his doubters wrong. Cesc or a second defender is this weeks biggest conundrum I suppose. Currently going with Fab but like always I reserve the right to reverse it 10212 times before Saturday noon..)

    http://www.goal.com/en/news/11/transfer-zone/2014/06/13/4878968/barcelona-fabregas-performances-got-worse-each-season

  7. Ryan
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 11 months ago

    This is depressing as a Fabregas owner. Yep it doesn't look good but can only hope he somehow turns it around as the season draws to a close.

  8. Piggs Boson
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 11 months ago

    Midfielder/Forward form (last 6)

    ......................Goals.......Assists........Bonus.........PPG
    Hazard..............4...............2................11..............8.5
    Henderson........4...............2.................7...............7.8
    Fabregas..........1...............2.................5...............5.0
    Vardy................2...............2.................4...............4.8
    Cambiasso........1...............2.................4...............4.8
    Sterling.............1...............3.................1...............4.8
    Coutinho...........1...............1.................3...............4.3
    N'doye...............1...............0.................1...............2.3

  9. Torres76
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 11 months ago

    Morning all.

    Two quick questions.

    1. Buy Schmeical or Schlupp or both?

    2. Play Kane or Silva

    Cheers gang

  10. TFP
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 11 months ago

    yeah.

    last week I had two FTs and only [due to arsenal/qpr/sunderland holdings] 9 available players.

    so I made a double transfer. it made sense to bring in players who'd benefit from the DGW, so I chose schmeichel [panti out] and cesc [cazorla out]. Liverpool players were out of the question since they also had a blank last week.

    I'm now deeply regretting the latter move. there are better bets available for markedly smaller outlays. holding cesc is severely interfering with my ability to strengthen my defence & be able to get giroud in next week.

    should have gone for cambiasso instead...

  11. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 11 months ago

    You don't hear much from the early season Fab owners who were all over Haz owners at that time. Many said Haz was all flash and no end product - wrong.

    Fab misses Costa and is playing deeper - end of.

  12. Mull
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 11 months ago

    My 2nd cousin twice removed's gardener is friends with Hazard's brother-in-law and he reliably informs me that he's sprained his ankle in training this morning and might miss the game against Arsenal on Sunday.

    1. Mull
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 11 months ago

      FFS. Wrong article.