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Ruddy and Rudd v Rotating Keepers

Last season my cheap (9.0) keeper rotation in Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managed a meagre 126 points. This season I can see no combos I like and the lack of any 4.0 defenders could mean saving money on a keeper is a better option

There is the option to choose two keepers from the same club, saving half a million in the process. Norwich appear prime candidates with Ruddy and his deputy Rudd.

Looking back to the last time Norwich were in the Premier League, Ruddy did just fine (well for two seasons anyway).

Ruddy’s points when adjusted for playing time

triggerlips

The money saved

This is the tricky part. Choosing Ruddy and Rudd saves half a million over going for any current rotating pair of keepers. But how much is half a million worth?

A brief poll I conducted seems to suggest anything from zero to over 30. It is impossible to quantify.

I have been conservative and added 10 points to the totals (last column) to give some indication of the real scores of a Ruddy-Rudd combo

Many seem to think 0.5 is actually worth considerably more than ten points over a season. So feel free to raise the total a little if you strongly believe 0.5 is worth more than ten points.

I can’t find figures for the totals the average cheap (9.0) combo is likely to achieve over a season, however I suspect it is between 120-150 depending on luck of the draw.

A Ruddy-Rudd combination appears to have a good possibility of at least matching a cheap combo, even without taking into consideration money earned elsewhere from the extra 0.5.

Just to the first Wildcard

Forget about the whole season for a while, let’s concentrate on the time to the first Wildcard. I believe this improves the prospects for Ruddy and Rudd even further.

  • Less chance of winter postponement
  • No double Gameweeks messing up fixtures
  • Norwich have good fixtures early on
  • Allows time to find the season’s best cheap defensive units
  • Half a million is worth more early in the season

Half a million at the beginning of the season can have quite an impact on defence, opening up far more rotation options. Currently I only have one defender over 4.5, and the rotation looks poor. Change one of those 4.5 into Williams, Cedric or one of the other 5.0 options, and the situation is much improved

Many are using a 9.0 rotation of Ruddy and Butland. What does that extra 0.5 spent on rotation bring you? Not much, it has to be said, looking at the first six weeks, only twice would you likely choose Butland ahead of Ruddy. That’s if Butland is even first choice by then.

Even then the odds of a clean sheet are odds against. At least with Ruddy-Rudd, the extra half million saved is put to work, while for those difficult fixtures, save points will be racked up.

Last time Ruddy was in the Premier League he was third overall for save points. Now 28, there is every possibility he has improved further since his last spell in the top flight

Verdict

Worst case scenario, your one-club strategy might only gain around 110 points after financial adjustments.

Best case, you’re looking at 150 plus (after financial adjustment) Norwich could be the best placed of the new clubs to make the transition to Premier League football; many of their squad have been there before.

How many times last season were you a few pennies short of being able to afford a player who went and scored a brace?  That 0.5 extra only needs to work its magic once to make it all worthwhile.

Besides, it’s much more fun having a bigger budget for outfield players.

Twelve years a slave <p>Four top 1k finishes. &nbsp;Only FPL goal now is to win it, so take lots of risks. If out of contention by xmas then give up, to me 10k=1M both fails so why sweat the small stuff.</p><p>Main focus these days is Fanteam where finishing position actually matters. &nbsp;Fanteam is how FPL used to be before it pandered to the casuals</p>

51 Comments Post a Comment
  1. J0E
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Not a strategy for me. Seen too many teams burnt over the last two years by double injuries to Hull and Southampton's keeper and back up.

    I like ruddy alot and he's in my team, but if injured can Rudd really replicate his saves?

    1. Doolittle
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      I get what you're saying about injuries, but logically, there is no more chance of Ruddy and Rudd both getting injured than there is of Butland and Ruddy both getting injured. In fact, as they both will be playing, there's probably more chance of Butland and Ruddy getting injured.

      1. Doolittle
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        Ah, just seen that this was said below!

  2. The Albatross
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Haven't Norwich signed a new keeper? Rudd may not be second choice anymore

    1. J0E
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Yep, they are very close to getting Blackburn's keeper.

    2. Gregor
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      This.

      1. Twelve years a slave
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        Surely the chance of a double injury is exactly the same as if having goalies from two different clubs

        1. Pinturicchio
          • 11 Years
          8 years, 7 months ago

          It is.

          1. sedm2810
            • 9 Years
            8 years, 7 months ago

            If anything it is lower because one of the keepers isn't playing and thus they are subjecting themselves to less risk.

  3. Je suis le chat
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Prefer picking rotating keepers, Krulliot was one one my painful ones last year. Year before; rotating Migs and Boruc got me 160 points. Worth making the effort to rotate keepers, good for double weeks, match cancelations and we may want more Norwich options. Will monitor Brady for example.

    1. invertebrate
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      How much did Mignolet and Boruc set you back that year? 9.0? What was the equivalent score from mids and strikers at that price point? If it was circa 160 then it was worth it but I suspect it was slightly higher.

  4. Leeroy357
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Interesting stuff but I think I will stick to the Ruddy Butland combo. I use Butland in 3 of the opening 7 which isn't bad and I like the fact I can avoid the team in poor form when needed as well as playing the fixtures. When Norwich go to free scoring Chelsea, City or Arsenal I want to be able to steer well clear and avoid the inevitable 0 or worse

    1. Bibelnissen
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Why is there an inevitable 0 or worse in those fixtures?

      I had Foster/Myhill last year and played Myhill when he went to the Etihad. Got me 5 points.

      Logically keepers like Ruddy v bigger teams will have to make a lot of saves during the match, thus resulting in save points. When rotating keepers the one you play at home to Watford is less likely to get save points. Therefore the difference might often be just 1-2 points - and that's when your chosen keeper manages a CS.

      I want those 10 saves games aswell, even if they mean 2-3 conceded at an in-form Arsenal. Therefore 4.5/4.0 is my preferred strategy for goalkeepers.

  5. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    It comes down to whether you take the minor risk of both keepers going down and one for those that don't see keepers as worth the extra investment. Krul Elliott and Foster Myhill have worked well in the past personally for me. Very worst case scenario you will have to use an FT but by then a standout replacement may become clear and WC's may be brought in pre GW8.

    Slightly more risk than carrying a 4.0m non playing defender granted.

  6. smithmarv
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    RMT Please!!

    Cech,Butland

    van Aanholt,Cresswell,Martin,Alderweireld,Francis

    Sterling,Hazard,Ibe,Walcott,Depay

    Deeney,Rooney,Sakho

  7. Geordienufc1
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Slightly put off in that the two previous times I have done this (Boruc and K. Davis at S'oton) and (Krul + Elliot) at Newcastle I've been burnt with both getting injured at the same time. Always fun.

    Having said that, I do love a sneaky 0.5.

  8. SEKOTN
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Can you guys give me some feedback on this effort:

    Schmeikel (Fabianski)
    Azpi, Francis, Metersacker (Bacuna, Ryan Bennet)
    Hazard, Walcott, Mane, Sterling, Stanislas
    Pelle, Benteke (Berahino)

    £0.5 in the bank. Downgrade Walcott or Sterling to get in Aguero in week three/four...

    Any feedback most welcome! Thanks

  9. Toast
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    There was a good post on here about the amount of home vs away clean sheets keepers got last year. It was pretty close to 50/50 for the lower keepers, which banishes the myth that your more likely to get a CS from the home keeper. In addition the away keepers save points usually were greater.

    1. Ruth_NZ
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      The post was misguided and the conclusions you draw are wrong. You are more likely to get a CS from the home keeper by a factor of 3 to 2. It is no myth.

      1. abreu
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        normally yes, but depends on team and tactics too. Some smaller team play more open and concedes more home than away, like Panti and Sunderland last season

  10. Toast
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Might be good to list out the 8.5m keeper combos:

    1. Ruddy - Rudd / good potential for save points but new back up keeper clouds things a little. Norwich probably the best of promoted teams for CS

    2. Myhill - Hennesy / for the early Wildcarders. Myhill should be in place till October and Henners has about three weeks as Speroni is injured.

    3. Schmeichal / Schwarzer / The most nailed of the combos for my money. Only issue is you can't get Huth at 4.5 in your defence. Leicester could be good for CS but who knows really. Good save point potential

    There is an article on here by Giggs Boson I think that looks at save point potential of all keepers.

    1. Al_Fresco
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      What about taking an 8.0 punt on Mccarthy/ hennessey?

      1. side_shore
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        Yes what about that. No one dares to speak about the 8.0 combo.

  11. Toast
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Sorry for the multiple posts but I guess the other side of this is you lose out on the chip to play your bench.

  12. Ruth_NZ
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    The biggest questionable element is the "120 to 150" points estimate for Ruddy/Rudd or a comparable pair. 150 points would be very close to the maximum scored by a GK last season (Fabianski 151) and Krul/Elliot (for example) would have delivered 104 points.

    My research would put the value of £0.5 discretionary budget at around 16 points over the season. Can a 9.0 rotation deliver 4 clean sheets better than a single GK? Maybe, maybe not. It's quite marginal.

    I don't think there is a conclusive answer here. In the end it comes down to what GKs you actually select and how well they actually do.

    1. abreu
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      "In the end it comes down to what GKs you actually select and how well they actually do"

      Exactly this, I have succeeded and failed with the last two seasons with the 9,5 keeper combo from the start. It all comes down to picking the right one, which also includes luck ofcourse.

      But I will try again.

      1. abreu
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        *8,5 keeper combo

        Too early for math

    2. sedm2810
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      The best argument for the 2 x 4.5 option is you get two chances to pick a good defense. Who honestly knows if Leicester or Norwich will be tighter at the back this year.

  13. ashtini
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    I did this last season with Pant and Mannone and I liked a lot.

    Stuck between Ruddy and Rudd and Schmike and Schwarzer though.

    1. abreu
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      yep, me too, will go for one of those

      1. SuperMario
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        very interesting idea.. LEI or NOR is the question

  14. Snellejanus
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Last season I tried rotation and I have been burnt by picking the wrong keeper to play too many times.

    This season I'm just going with Pantilimon and a 4.0. No worries, no selection headaches, he is able to get (save) points even against Arsenal and I'm fairly confident that he will outscore most rotation pairs over the season. Sure, one or two combinations will outscore him, but picking the right one (and then selecting the right playing keeper each week) is just too much of a minefield.

    Of course if he gets injured at the wrong moment when I have no FTs to spare I will be in trouble. But hey, what's life without risks?

  15. Pav A Nice Day
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    And what happens if Norwich happen to have a crap defence this season? They may have been good 2 years ago but at the end of the day they're still a promoted team with a new manager and new defenders. There's no guarantee that they'll be a good defence for the first half of the season. If you rotate, you give yourself 2 chances of picking a keeper from a good defence

  16. tomandrews123
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Playing WC in GW4 so Ruddy and Rudd for me.

  17. funny money
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    This is my chosen strategy for the reasons outlined above and additionally:-

    - some Gw you end up with a spare transfer - use these to rotate your keeper if you don't want to wait till wildcard.

    - whilst rotation is good if clubs have mixed fixtures it is often the case that a keeper has a good run. What's the point in having a playing gk sat there for these good runs?

    - this season the 2 wildcard, one per half of the season helps facilitate this strategy.

    I have never seen an analysis like the above split into different combos for different phases of the season but I suspect it will look optimal ......

  18. funny money
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    And one more thing! During the season playing 4.0s become available!!

  19. FPL Daniel
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Amen to this article, finally someone agrees with me. After 3 seasons debating and promoting this. Hope less people accept this, more points for us 😉

  20. SuperMario
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Very solid article will consider this big time during the week!

  21. OShaughnessy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Don't forget that we get 2 x WC & still have the ability to swap over & grab a different keeper at any point during the year.

    (eg. Last season many people found the room / the time to get Forster in early.
    Also, no one would have had Schmeichel to begin the seaslon but, plenty finished with him due LEI form & their late DGW)

    The point being, we shouldn't get too caught up in 38-week projections here.
    And, it's also not inconceivable to think that we'll be using both strategies at some point this year as well.

    Note: Trigger I see you did mention *until the 1st WC in your piece* & I do like incorporating that strat. into this idea of single v. rotating keepers.
    As we've seen what may be the best idea early could certainly warrant change later on.

  22. Tree House
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    I like and agree with the 8.5 mill keeper logic, especially with the lack of 4 mill defenders, but isn't Butland a better option, even if you can't back him up with the reserve keeper?

  23. Numb
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Instinctively I agree with this, without doing the maths. Goalkeepers don't score great points and also there is usually little difference between those at good clubs and those not - in fact some of the best FPL scoring keepers often seem to come from mid-table type clubs. There is a sort of 'hedge' when it comes to their points - if their team defends well they might get a CS, if not then they might get save points - pretty much evens out.

    For these reasons I always look to minimise spend on keepers.

    Just one point - would you not prefer Leicester keepers than Norwich ones (same price)?

  24. RedLightning
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    1. VORP. Will spending an extra 0.5m on your two goalkeepers gain you more points than spending that extra 4.5m elsewhere in your squad? The answer might be yes or no depending on the composition of your squad.

    2. Quality. The 4.5m goalkeeper who happens to have a 4.0m understudy might not be the highest scoring 4.5m goalkeeper.

    3. Security and peace of mind. If you have two goalkeepers from the same club, and that club has a match postponed, then you don't have a goalkeeper that game-week.

    4. Flexibility. If you have two goalkeepers from the same club, then you can't also have two outfield players from that club. For example, if you have Schmeichel and Schwarzer, then you can't also have more than one out of Pelle, Mane and Cedric.

    Having said all that, I have occasionally in the past had just one playing goalkeeper, backed up with an occasional goalkeeper from a different club on the bench, but it's taking a risk.

    1. RedLightning
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      *extra 0.5m elsewhere

    2. RedLightning
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Sorry, getting my clubs mixed up. If you have Schmeichel and Schwarzer then you can't also have both Huth and King.

  25. Punty
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Adam Traore to Stoke from Barca B...

  26. thunder_mike
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Going for this tactic, I am on Schmeichel and Schwarzer at the moment, but Norwich combo let's me have Huth or Morgan so not sure which to go for.

  27. Twelve years a slave
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Still undecided on my keepers, glad to see the article has sparked some debate. Having read through the comments i have a couple of points.

    Strategy applies equally to Leicester and other 8.5 combo clubs. The 8m palace combo would be very tempting if Speroni was out for longer than three weeks

    2) The claim that there is more risk due to Norwich potentially having a terrible season. Its possible. The floor seems to be around 100 points, and the ceiling around 150.
    However i did point out in the article that the Norwich strategy was only until the first wildcard, partly because of the lack of good rotating combos. Downside seems very minimal given Norwich having ok fixtures generally

    Butland Ruddy might pay off over a longer time frame,, who knows , they rotate well up to xmas, but not that great in the first six or so, where it will be just as easy to save.5 and play Ruddy

    3) Butland has been given the nod to start the season, however there is no guarantee he will keep the job, he is not one of the more nailed on keepers

    4) Given a more generous budget i would opt for a rotating pair, however his season money is so tight that compromises are needed somewhere

    1. XYRUSFPLKING123
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Why does no one look at Schmeichel and Butland rotation? They reach all the way to gameweek 20 :0

      1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        Shadduppayouface. 😉

  28. Cloudeu
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    This year we have the Bench boost perk, I know it only can be used for one week in the year but having two playing keepers might be a good idea for that.

  29. Jøssy ⭐
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    What are we saying now???