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How The FA Cup Will Define The Fantasy Premier League 2015/16

In my recent article on double Gameweek planning in the second half of the season I mentioned that the optimal tactic in Fantasy Premier League (FPL) based on likely double Gamweeks looks to be to Wildcard ahead of Gameweek 36 and then use a bench boost chip during Gameweek 37, when a bumper double Gameweek featuring top teams is expected.

Some people have said this approach is brilliant and will be a massive advantage over those not in the know, some have dismissed this as pie-in-the-sky and you will get a ruined team for the last three Gameweeks of the season, with potentially bad fixtures and having to leave out premium players.

Having looked at this in a bit more depth, the simple answer is that it appears that it could go either way and will depend heavily on what happens in the FA Cup.

Usually, the FA Cup is of little interest to the die-hard FPL manager, other than to make sure one of your assets doesn’t get injured or suspended, but this season you could be rooting for the big guns to reach the semi-finals or not, depending on whether you still have your Wildcard left or not.  Having your Wildcard left with the big boys in the FA Cup semi finals could mean a likely potential giant points gain in Gameweek 37, while “lesser” teams in the semi finals could leave you with a very depressing summer of reflection. Here are the potential permutations…

DREAM SCENARIO FOR GAMEWEEK 36 WILDCARDERS

If the FA Cup semi-finalists are the “big four” of Arsenal, Chelsea, Man City and Man United, the fixtures for all eight teams who look like they will have a double Gameweek 37 will almost certainly look like this…

Arsenal

GW36: NOR

GW37: mci, sun

GW38: AVL

Chelsea

GW36: TOT

GW37: sun, bou

GW38: LEI

Manchester City

GW36: sou

GW37: ARS, STO

GW38: swa

Manchester United

GW36: LEI

GW37: nor, whu

GW38: bou

Bournemouth

GW36: eve

GW37: WBA, CHE

GW38: mnu

Sunderland

GW36: sto

GW37: CHE, ARS

GW38: wat

Stoke

GW36: SUN

GW37: cpl, mnc

GW38: WHU

West Ham

GW36: wba

GW37: SWA, MNU

GW38: sto

In this scenario, you could put out a theoretical pretty decent team that maximises the double Gameweek 37 with bench boost (assuming no injuries, suspensions and rotation), whilst having a decent-looking team with good fixtures for Gameweek 36 and Gameweek 38. Chelsea and Manchester United particularly would have a plum run of fixtures (to double/triple up). Don’t forget you would also have two free transfers (FTs) as well for GW38 to bring in players from other clubs if you don’t use a free transfer pre-Gameweek 37.

NIGHTMARE SCENARIO FOR GAMEWEEK 36 WILDCARDERS

However, what if the FA Cup semi final line-up is the same as just two seasons ago (2014) – Arsenal, Hull, Sheffield United and Wigan?

Well, it would be a disaster if you were saving your Wildcard for GW36 as potentially only Arsenal and Sunderland would have a double Gameweek 37s, so if you have saved your Wildcard hoping for the dream scenario for the double Gameweek, you are not going to be happy at all.

Even if Manchester City don’t get through to the FA Cup semi-finals (which is more than a small possibility) are you really going to go without Sergio Aguero just because he doesn’t have a double Gameweek? It’s certainly food for thought.

Conclusion

So what is the best approach to ensure you get the most out of the second half of the season and your chips in FPL? For the masses who Wildcarded after Gameweek 2, it is going to be very difficult to hold on to your second Wildcard until Gameweek 36. Patience and good strategic hits may be needed, or they could just play the second Wildcard early and hope the big guns fail to reach the FA Cup semi-finals.

For those who haven’t Wildcrded yet and are not planning to until November/December, then who knows what the best approach will be – it’s certainly going to be something that is going to need a lot of consideration/luck in the second half of the season and has added an extra dimension to this year’s competition.

42 Comments Post a Comment
  1. J0E
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Mini leagues will be won or lost on getting this right. Thanks for helping us prepare.

  2. Piggs Boson
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Terrific article.

    If some of the big guns start dropping out of the FA Cup early then it's going to make the WC+BB strategists start sweating.

    What are the other strategies for the WC+BB, assuming we don't get a bumper DGW?

    1. l@sp0
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Good question!

      • 10 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      If the draw looks bad I'll be looking to WC in gw31 after the QF blanks, play for the gw34 dgw and not worry too much about the Semi's DGW

      1. Ruth_NZ
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 6 months ago

        Yes, I think the DGW after the quarters will probably be best to wildcard for. But we'll see when we get there. It's as much a matter of navigating the blank weeks as having the right DGW team.

        Just needs to be remembered that games can also be re-scheduled earlier than they were initially due to be played as Villa-QPR was last season. That may also complicate matters.

        1. Now I'm Panicking
          • 9 Years
          8 years, 6 months ago

          Not this year I don't think - only GW34 and 37 are available for DGWs (see http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2015/08/20/advance-double-gameweek-planning/) and those teams that will need DGWs will not be known until between GW26 and GW27 (i.e. after the FA Cup fifth round) and by then it will be too late to arrange a DGW match at any other time?).

          1. Ruth_NZ
            • 9 Years
            8 years, 6 months ago

            Not 31? Isn't that available?

              1. Ruth_NZ
                • 9 Years
                8 years, 6 months ago

                Ah, OK. It's so far ahead I hadn't looked really, I had just looked at the calendar till Xmas.

                So it looks as if 34 and 37 are unavoidable then? That is going to make managing the wildcard timing really, really tricky. The FAC semi finalists are going to have 2 DGWs and a blank GW somewhere between them.

                I have read (and bookmarked) your original article now, thanks. Jonty is right, navigating those last 6-8 weeks well is going to make or break a lot of seasons.

                1. Now I'm Panicking
                  • 9 Years
                  8 years, 6 months ago

                  It is a long way away - I felt hypocritical earlier today for moaning at someone for saying Christmas is 4 months today, when I'm on here banging on about potential events in Spring 2016! 🙂

  3. Jøssy ⭐
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Fantastic article!!!

    Question... How early will we know the FA Cup Semi-finalists, or indeed the Quarter finalists, so we can bail out of any GW 37 plans early?

      1. John t penguin
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 6 months ago

        Third round proper Saturday 9 January 2016
        Fourth round proper Saturday 30 January 2016
        Fifth round proper Saturday 20 February 2016
        Sixth round proper Saturday 12 March 2016 GW 30
        Semi-final Saturday 23 April 2016 & Sunday 24 April 2016 GW35
        Final Saturday 21 May 2016

    1. Now I'm Panicking
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      FA Cup schedule

      Third round = between GW20 and GW21
      Fourth Round = between GW23 and GW24
      Fifth round = between GW26 and GW27
      QF = GW30
      SF = GW35

  4. Jøssy ⭐
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    So assuming no replays, we could know by end of GW30 who will be in the Semis. Also, by GW27 we could have a good idea if it's a write-off as a strategy if a few of the big boys have failed to even reach the Quarters.

    Great work guys!!

    1. Jøssy ⭐
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Now all I have to do is hold my nerve on my Wildcard!!! I managed to wait one whole week before activating it for GW3, so I should be fine... 😐

  5. Oh Dear
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Apologies, completely off topic... Does anyone know why Mings isn't playing at Bournemouth?

    1. Jøssy ⭐
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      See below mate

  6. Oh Dear
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Great article by the way, thanks for the effort

  7. Jøssy ⭐
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Howes said he wanted to keep faith with the boys who got them up initially. I think it's the current LB's (you can see I'm up on the Bournemouth squad) position to lose at the moment, and he must be happy with their performances.

    At least, that's what he said in his first pre-match interview.

    1. Jøssy ⭐
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      reply fail!

      1. Oh Dear
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 6 months ago

        Brilliant, cheers for that. I wonder how much that faith was tested after Saturday... May hold for now!

    2. Charlie Adam in a Tutu
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      I think after the Villa game he said he was injured. Assumption was at the start of the season he would play (record signing for the club by a factor of about four when he was signed). No one really sure why he isn't playing except Eddie Howe.

  8. Jøssy ⭐
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    It's not worth wasting a FT over, unless your defence is all not playing.

    1. Oh Dear
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Yep, bigger problems elsewhere at the moment, and keen to hold onto the wc for another few gw's if possible.

  9. Barry194
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Rooney and Bellerin to Wilson and Kolarov for a hit ?(-4)

    1. Oh Dear
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      To me it would depend on what the extra £ ITB is going to be put towards, and whether it is worth just wc'ing (if you haven't already)...

      1. Barry194
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 6 months ago

        I was planning on using my wildcard next game week, just wanted to take a punt on wilson for a GW.

    2. FPLzebub
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Sounds good.

  10. Oh Dear
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Probably not worth it for -4 then, despite Rooney's woes.

    • 10 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    :drool:

    Thanks for spelling this out 🙂

  11. Barry Woj
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Great post. It's good to know that a dream scenario is at least possible!

  12. Your Mum's Athletic
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Top class article!

  13. matthew_1991
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Great analysis thanks

  14. RedLightning
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    I don't think it's a big problem to have a long interval between the First and Second Wildcards.

    There were often very few changes that I needed to make with my January Wildcard, which was one of the things that made it so unpopular with many of us.

    1. Now I'm Panicking
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      I don't think it is a problem either if people are able to stay patient - problem is (as we saw after GW2), if people still have bad rankings GW20 a lot are going to use their second WC early in an effort to save their season.

      1. RedLightning
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 6 months ago

        Those who had the patience to save their Main Wildcard for a late DGW rather than playing it early ought also to have the patience to save their Second Wildcard for a late DGW.

        Anyone can have a bad ranking after 3 game-weeks, but decent players shouldn't still have a really bad ranking by GW20. They will have had plenty of time before then to sort out their squads, taking a few hits if necessary.

        Of course, if half their squad suddenly gets injured, suspended and rotated then that's a different matter!

  15. ActionJackson17
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    So am I right in thinking a combination of those GW37 latter games pairing would lead to the Super DGW?! Rooting for West Ham and Sunderland!!

  16. The Hindu Monkey
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    good work

    I would possibly argue about the use of the wildcard pre the bench boost though

    I've managed to maximise (8-10 double starters) the DGWs the last two seasons without using my wildcard by simply planning the transfers a few weeks in advance. Two seasons ago I made six transfers in 4 game weeks (-8 hit) to get 10 on the pitch and made up over 50 points in my mini league. The RMT tool is brilliant for this, although you do need to get luck with injuries and suspensions.

    This remains a valid tactic for me, with the view to then wildcard after that week. For example:

    GWs 30-33 - start to bring in players who look likely to be involved in the DGW 34.
    GW 34 - Bench boost
    GW 35- Wildcard with a view to have players who are involved in GW 37 and strong ends to season (let's be honest, we're not going to have the big four in the semis, two at max probably)
    GW 36 - ideally save transfers (these two can be switched around)
    GW 37 - Triple Captain
    GW 38 - Pray

    1. The Hindu Monkey
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      also, I can't believe any serious player would use their second wildcard pre Feb (i.e. after the jan transfer window) so you really should be able to hold on to it for a few more weeks from there! I personally can't wait to see all the semi-casuals in my league waste their wildcards in weeks 20-28

  17. Wingate
    • 13 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Great work, thanks.

  18. Klopp\'s Angels
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Totally agree! Keeping it is the way to go. Last seasons wildcard before a doubler won me 3 mini leagues! Coasted to the end with no competition in sight!