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What the Bookies Say – Gameweek 4 Results

Can bookies’ odds be used as tool for Fantasy Football managers? Each week I take a look at the bookies’ odds and use them to help me attempt to predict that week’s Premier League results. Here is how my Gameweek 4 predictions fared.

The Matches

Newcastle vs Arsenal  0-1

A red card for Newcastle changed the game as the Magpies sat deeper and deeper. Newcastle have not had a shot on target since the first half of their match against Swansea on 15 August. Prediction 0-1 – spot on, great start.

Manchester City vs Watford  2-0

Watford have failed to register a shot on target in their last two Premier League games. Man City are unbeaten in their last 25 home Premier League games against newly promoted opposition (W23 D2 L0). Sergio Aguero may have blanked but a clean sheet and a cheeky assist for David Silva kept things ticking over. Prediction: 2-0  – unbelievable start.

Liverpool vs West Ham  0-3

West Ham have been shown six red cards in 10 games this season. West Ham had only 37% possession during the game and only 18% of it was spent in Liverpool’s third. Liverpool mustered just one shot on target. Some interesting stats there, Liverpool who had not conceded goal, let in three with a woeful defensive performance. Prediction: 2-0 – couldn’t have got this more wrong

Bournemouth vs Leicester  1-1

Bournemouth have only lost one of their last 12 home league matches. Leicester City have gone five away games unbeaten for the first time in the Premier League. The Cherries’ Callum Wilson scored a great goal in the box to reward his new owners with Leicester’s Riyad Mahrez having a goal wrongly disallowed in my opinion and also hitting the post before leaving the field early through injury. Prediction: 2-3 – expected a few more goals in this one and there certainly could have been.

Stoke vs West Brom  0-1

A scrappy affair with two red cards meant Stoke were on a hiding to nothing for much of this game in their attempt to grab a home win. This is only the 10th time that a side has been reduced to nine men in the Premier League before half time. Stoke looked threatening going forward but on the flip side, the Tony Pulis effect on West Brom’s defence shows signs of taking shape. If this game were next week I’d say 0-0 without question. Prediction: 1-1 – close but not close enough.

Aston Villa vs Sunderland  2-2

Aston Villa have only kept one clean sheet in their last 11 Premier League games at Villa Park. Only two teams have conceded more Premier League penalties than Sunderland since the start of last season. If Jeremain Lens were playing for a different team (sorry Sunderland fans) he’d be alot more popular. Two assists and a goal is a decent start. Prediction: 2-0/2-1 – Sunderland surprised many by salvaging a draw.

Chelsea vs Palace 1-2

The Blues have conceded nine goals in four league games this season – their worst defensive record at this stage since 1971-72. No team has won more points than Crystal Palace away from home in the Premier League in 2015. Looking at those two stats, the result seemed inevitable in hindsight. What is happening with Chelsea this season? Prediction: 2-1 right scoreline, wrong way round.

Tottenham vs Everton 0-0

Everton have now lost just one of their last five away league matches. That was only Tottenham’s second clean sheet at home in the league in 2015. Harry Kane has scored just two goals in his last 12 Premier League appearances. Prediction: 1-1 – thought this would be a draw but not a goalless one.

Southampton vs Norwich  3-0

Twelve of Saints striker Graziano Pelle’s 14 Premier League goals have come at St Mary’s. It was only the eighth home win of the Premier League season so far. This is the first time Mane has provided two assists in a single Premier League game. With Norwich playing with 10 men for much of this game their attacking intent was curtailed and Southampton prospered. Prediction: I had this down as a Norwich victory, I really thought a Europa hangover would see Southampton drop points, but Norwich’s discipline let them down.

Swansea vs Manchester United  2-1

Bafetimbi Gomis has scored nine goals in his last 10 Premier League games for Swansea. Luke Shaw provided his first Premier League assist for Manchester United in what was his 20th appearance. It is only the second time in his career that Wayne Rooney has gone 10 Premier League games without a goal. Swans boss Gary Monk out-thought Louis Van Gaal with a switch of formation. United couldn’t cope and looked poor at the back and going forward as Luke Shaw’s bombing runs left plenty of space for Gomis and Andrew Ayew, who also scored, to prosper. Prediction of 1-1 gave United too much credit, they really are poor going forward.

Captaincy results

Here are the top 10 captaincy options from Gameweek 4 according to the Fantasy Football Scout poll to see if they blanked or not:

1. Aguero X

2. Pedro ✓

3. Sanchez X

4. Mahrez X

5. Silva ✓

6. Hazard X

7. Yaya X

8. Costa X

9. Wilson ✓

10. Benteke X

Only three out of the top 10 captaincy options delivered some attacking points this week.

Conclusion

After a good start this week, things went downhill fairly quickly. Having said this, the number of red cards this week was alarmingly high and definitely skewed some of the results. Only three of this community’s favoured captains prospered, with five from 14 in Gameweek 3; are we beginning to see a worrying pattern emerging?

19 Comments Post a Comment
  1. J0E
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Those red cards really did cost some of these. As a Hoolahan owner that Norwich one was particularly galling, as myman was sacrificed for the mistake of another. Norwich had no chance after that.

    1. Your Mum's Athletic
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      Thanks Jonty, I was pretty ill when I wrote this so sorry if it's not upto scratch

  2. Arvin-ation
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    I thought you predicted a Southampton win? So didn't you get that right?

    You did say you had a feeling Norwich would get it, but didn't you put down "2-1" as the prediction?

    Love this series btw. 🙂

    1. Your Mum's Athletic
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      I had an odd feeling Norwich would win so alas, did not get this right but the sending of proved crucial, with 11v11 I was convinced that Southampton would tire towards the end of the game but the sending off, as like other game this GW, proved detrimental towards any predictions

      1. Your Mum's Athletic
        • 12 Years
        8 years, 6 months ago

        This makes absolutely no sense 😆

        1. Jax
          • 14 Years
          8 years, 6 months ago

          Saints were always gonna win this one.

      2. Arvin-ation
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 6 months ago

        Haha. Well you put down 2-1, so your official prediction was right, but your gut feeling was wrong. 🙂

        I had the same idea too, put down a BTTS with Saints winning. Red card stuffed me over. 🙄

      3. Woy of the Wovers
        • 13 Years
        8 years, 6 months ago

        That sending off reflected the play. I don't think it affected the result.

  3. rnrd
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Could you please rate my WC team?

    Mc Carthy / Butland
    Shaw - Sagna - Monreal - Prodl - ReeceOxford
    Silva - Mané - Pedro - Ayew - Wanyama
    Pelle - Aguero - Mbokani

    0,5 ITB plan is to use Pelle's 8 valu as a in/our transfer pawn planning on using the hot FW of the moment could it be Benteke, Martial or others

    same applies with mané, easily downgradable to a Toivonen / Siggy etc..

    what do you think?

    1. Captain Peacock
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      This isn't the place for that

  4. John t penguin
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    right score wrong way round
    nice spin on I got it completely wrong 😉

    1. Your Mum's Athletic
      • 12 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      😀

  5. Pards Against Humanity
    • 12 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Thought on Newcastle DEF's. Haidara is a very cheap option, and almost fittingly given the unpredictability of this season, they actually look quite solid defensively.

    1. Jax
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      nah.

    2. andy85wsm
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 13 Years
      8 years, 6 months ago

      When fixtures pick up I'm interested - especially Jaanmat.

      1. Ruth_NZ
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 6 months ago

        You will need a replacement for Myhill eventually (though hopefully not until Foster returns).

        Take a look at Krul. Newcastle rotate really well with Palace through the season and that could be a nice 8.5 pair.

        Foster and Janmaat = 9.9m
        Krul and Evans = 9.3m

        Worth considering I think.

        1. andy85wsm
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 13 Years
          8 years, 6 months ago

          Pretty worried that I'll need a Myhill replacement sooner than that annoyingly. Willing to wait and see though.

          Really like Janmaat's assist potential, but yeah 0.6m might come in handy.

          1. Ruth_NZ
            • 9 Years
            8 years, 6 months ago

            Yeah, I have the same pair as you. I think Myhill may be OK for the next couple of PL games anyway. As long as both don't lose their place at the same time. But I also think McCarthy has a good chance of remaining 1st choice at Palace.

            I like Janmaat's assist potential too and he was firmly pencilled in for me. But saving 0.6 looks preferential and I may well go the other way.

  6. juggos
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 6 months ago

    Just pointing out that Lens has 3 assists and a goal by fpl standards (your stats are also right). Like you said, I think he deserves much more attention but Sunderland's poor form is preventing that