Gameweek 12 Table Toppers (2011-2014)

There has been lots of discussion in recent weeks as to whether, with 12 goals already this season, Leicester striker Jamie Vardy can continue his amazing form. This got me thinking whether, historically, the fact that players and teams have been leading various metrics by Gameweek 12 is a good predictor of whether they will be leading performers for the remainder of the season.

Last Four Years Table Toppers

Looking at the various stats across the four seasons 2011-12 to 2014-15 leads to:

There are a couple of ways to read this. One is that current leaders for goals, assists and clean sheets historically on average have not produced a high proportion of the leaders for the remainder of the season. For example only three to four of the current top 10 goalscorers will be the top 10 goal scorers for the rest of the season. In fact across the last four seasons only the elite players in general have achieved the feat of being in the top five goalscorers by Gameweek 12 and top five goalscorers for Gameweeks 13-38:

Expected Goals

The other way to read it is that current leaders in expected goals in particular followed by goals and shots on target are good predictors of the top five scorers for the rest of the season. I only have Paul Riley’s expected goals  for 2014-15 so a smaller sample size but from the top five of that model by Gameweek 12, three were in the top five goalscorers for the rest of the season and five were in the top 10.

Clean Sheets have a good hit rate for the top five teams for the rest of the season if you use the current leaders in shots in the box conceded.

So looking at the season so far using the top 10 for Paul Riley’s expected goals:

If it follows last year, if these players stay fit, and in Giroud’s case, if he is getting the minutes, it seems like they are good predictors for highest goalscorers for the rest of the season.

Similarly looking at leaders for shots on target as this has a bigger sample size (showing 12 as bottom three are tied):

If the future mirrors the past four seasons then two to three of the current top five will be in the top five for the rest of the season. Four of the top 10 currently will be in the top 10 goalscorers for the rest of the season.

Of those to drop off, if I had to bet right now that would be Watford’s Odion Ighalo, Swansea’s Befatembi Gomis, Everton man Ross Barkley, Southampton midfielder Sadio Mane, Riyad Mahrez of Leicester and Liverpool’s Philippe Coutinio and Arsenal striker Olivier Giroud depending on Theo Walcott’s fitness in terms of reducing his minutes.

Harry Kane of Tottenham, Arsenal’s Alexis Sanchez, Manchester City’s Sergio Aguero and Vardy seem good bets depending on fitness. As I highlighted in Gameweek 10, Kane in particular with a relatively high ratio of shots on target to current goals scored even after his recent run, looks very good to me for a positive mean regression (so points for us).

Clean Sheets

It is likely that two to three of Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester United and Southampton will have the most clean sheets for the rest of the season. I anticipate that Bournemouth will concede far more shots in the box as they continue to struggle with life in the Premier League.