Analysing The Fantasy Football Veterans

I started this series of articles with the idea to track the best and the most experienced Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers around.

For this study I have selected 34 managers, including those from the top of the FFScout Hall of Fame, former FPL winners and those who work for FFScout as moderators or contributors.

This group offers something different from other groupings, such as the top 10,000 ranked manager, as many have a strong track record of doing well in multiple seasons and all have a huge bank of memories to fall back on. So when double Gameweeks and blanks arise it is a situation this group are well versed in and when fixtures fall favourably for a team, this group of FPL stalwarts tend to pounce on their assets quickly.

But another reason I wanted to focus on this group is that for a number of reasons 2015/16 has been tough so far for those with more experience. Leicester lead the Premier League, while for a time Chelsea were amongst the relegation places. This means their experience has counted for little at times as new trends take hold. Another change has been the advent of chips, enabling triple captaincy for a week or to bring all of a bench into play. I was keen to find out how this group would tackle these new strategies.

This series started in Gameweek 15 this season and with a dozen weeks of Gameweek data already included I thought I’d take a moment to look in more detail at this group of veterans to analyse how they have fared in previous seasons as well as recap on how they are performing this year.

A Decade’s worth of FPL experience

Season 2006/07 was the first FPL season where histories were collected.  Nine veterans were involved in all nine of these previous seasons and the veterans’ average is seven previous seasons.

Previous Season Finishes

Amongst the veterans 74% have at least three top 10,000 finishes under their belt and 29% have at least three top 1,000 final season rankings. One manager has an incredible eight top 10,000 finishes.

The next chart shows the average overall position of our veterans in the previous seasons. Of course, last year all of them participated (34), while, for example, in the season 2008/09 just 21 of 34 veterans were active so the average overall position for that year is based on 21 managers, not 34.

For five seasons out of nine the average overall position of this group was within the top 100,000. The best overall average position was 48,939, in 2013/14.

SEASON 2015/16

Average Gameweek points (Gameweeks 1-26)

The next chart shows the average Gameweek points this campaign.

The crucial week for our veterans was Gameweek 8 when Sergio Aguero scored five goals against Newcastle. That week, the veterans’ average was an incredible 102.56 points, while the top 10,000 managers’ average was a mere 59.3 points and the overall average was 55 points. Here there experience shone through; with memories of Aguero’s Gameweek 8 haul against Spurs in 2014/15 still fresh in their mind, they once again turned to a reliable FPL player who had a strong home fixture against a weak defence.

Average overall position (Gameweeks 1-26)

But their joy was to be short-lived. Just once, after Gameweek 23, was their average overall position inside the top 100,000 – 92.620.

Nevertheless it could have been much worse if it was not for Aguero’s Gameweek 8 haul. In Gameweek 7 their average overall position was 500,761 but after Gameweek 8  it was 125,857! This is a staggering 374,904 places better! Their average overall position now sits at 133,436 but with careful planing around the impending blank fixtures and double Gameweek they look well placed to continue their ascent up the rankings.

Next Year’s Veterans’ Study

From the 2016/17 season I will start this article series from Gameweek 1. Also it will feature an expanded line-up of veterans. Before the season gets underway I will offer the chance for more to take part with some criteria in place. While not finalised, this is likely to be at least five FPL seasons and a minimum of two top 10,000 finishes.

A few days before new season starts, I want to publish how many managers are included, what their average overall position the season before was and their average Hall of Fame position.