This article aims to help Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Managers in their choice for the best captaincy option for the forthcoming Gameweek by combining form and fixtures.
Additionally, I have also included a ‘clean sheet potential’ table to help assess the Gameweek’s best defensive assets.
Before I take a look at Gameweek 26’s best captaincy targets, let’s have a quick recap on how I use form and fixtures to come to achieve this.
REFINING THE ODDS
For this method, I am going to take the top six most popular captaincy options and rank them 1-6 ranking according to the difficulty of the fixture, which is worked out using goals conceded, big chances conceded and shots in the box (Sib) conceded from the last four games.
I then apply the same ranking to form, looking at total points per game, goals and assists over the last four games. The form table will include Home and Away PPG but these sections will only come into play in terms of the results when the total PPG of 2 players are the same. The Home and Away PPG will now take into account the last 4 Home or Away fixtures that player has featured in.
The article includes the ‘clean sheet potential’ table, which is worked out with the form and fixtures elements from the captaincy section and then combined with clean sheet odds to give a total ranking based on clean sheet potential. This section will include the top five teams.
DEFINING SUCCESS
What defines a successful captaincy pick according to this method? The ultimate success will be whether the top pick highlighted by the method is the top scorer of the six options from the Fantasy Football Scout Captain poll. A monthly average will also be worked out to find the cumulative points to see if this method or the FFS Captain polls are proving to be more successful. This is pencilled in for next week.
On a weekly basis, success will be defined as:
- Explosive = 10+ points
- Success = 7-9 points
- Average = 4-6 points
- Fail = no attacking returns
Gameweek 25’s top pick Gylfi Sigurdsson produced an “average” return of 6 FPL points, he finished second in terms of overall points for the top six in the captaincy poll behind Alexis Sanchez. The clean sheet table maintained its impressive accuracy by highlighting four out of five potential clean sheets with only Chelsea conceding just the once.
Let’s take a look at Gameweek 26’s results…..
FORM
| Rank | Player | Total PPG | Goals | Assists | H-PPG | A-PPG |
| 1. | Sigurdsson | 8 | 3 | 2 | 5.75 | 5.5 |
| 2. | Lukaku | 6.75 | 4 | 0 | 9.75 | 2 |
| 3. | Mane | 6.25 | 2 | 0 | 5.5 | 5.25 |
| 4. | Hazard | 5.25 | 1 | 1 | 7.25 | 3.75 |
| 5. | Costa | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 2.5 |
| 6. | Kane | 3.5 | 1 | 1 | 6.75 | 6 |
Fixture
| Rank | Player | Fixture | Goals Conceded | Big Chances Conceded | Goal attempts in the box conceded | Total | |
| 1. | Mane | Leicester (A) | 9 | 8 | 50 | 67 | |
| 2. | Lukaku | Sunderland (H) | 6 | 9 | 41 | 56 | |
| 3.5 | Costa | Swansea (H) | 5 | 8 | 34 | 47 | |
| 3.5 | Hazard | Swansea (H) | 5 | 8 | 34 | 47 | |
| 5. | Kane | Stoke (H) | 3 | 4 | 33 | 40 | |
| 6. | Sigurdsson | Chelsea (A) | 3 | 8 | 16 | 27 | |
Results
| Rank | Player | Form | Fixture | Total |
| 1.5. | Lukaku | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 1.5. | Mane | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 3. | Sigurdsson | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 4. | Hazard | 4 | 3.5 | 7.5 |
| 5. | Costa | 5 | 3.5 | 8.5 |
| 6. | Kane | 6 | 5 | 11 |
What happens when two options end up on the same score?
| Player | Goals conceded last 4 H or A | Goals scored last 4 H or A | Total |
| Lukaku | 9 | 6 | 15 |
| Mane | 8 | 2 | 10 |
When this happens I look at goals conceded in last four opponents’ home or away fixtures plus goals scored in players’ last four home or away matches according to the Gameweek fixture.
Taking form and fixtures into consideration, Romelu Lukaku is the most likely to deliver attacking returns according to this method.
The Everton marksman pips Sadio Mané to the top spot by virtue of having scored more in his last four home games plus Sunderland have conceded nine times in their last four away games. The Everton front man has a total PPG of 6.75 in the last four Gameweeks, but it’s worth pointing out that this figure is mainly due to the 21 point haul he achieved in his home tie against Bournemouth. Another stellar score could be on the cards given David Moyes’ troops have conceded six goals, nine big chances and 41 attempts in the same time frame.
Sadio Mane offers a strong alternative for the armband this week, whilst his 6.25 total PPG is slightly misleading due to one of the games coming all the way back in Gameweek 20, his consistency in his away performances compared to others in the top six of the poll is worth mentioning.
The Liverpool front man finishes top of the fixture table this week and faces a Leicester side that has conceded nine goals, eight big chances and 50 attempts in the box over the last four. Their tally of 67 makes them one of the worst opponents this article series has ever seen.
This week’s classic form vs fixture option comes in the shape of Icelandic midfielder Gylfi Sigurdsson.
The Swansea schemer faces a Chelsea side that has conceded three goals, eight big chances and an impressively low 16 goal attempts in the box in the last four Gameweeks. It’s worth pointing out that Chelsea have only conceded more than one goal five times this season, with two of these coming in the opening weeks of the season.
On the brighter side, the Welsh side’s set piece specialist finishes top of the form table. His total PPG of 8, with three goals and two assists in the last four Gameweeks makes him a standout option for those managers who prefer their form over their fixtures stats. He also tops the away PPG table with 5.5; this may suggest that there is a consistency to pick up points both home and away, which makes him an enticing differential for the armband this week.
Clean Sheet Potential Table
| Rank | Team |
| 1. | Chelsea |
| 2. | Everton |
| 3. | Tottenham |
| 4. | Hull |
| 5. | West Brom |
7 years, 1 month agoLukaku looking hard to ignore given Sunderland's and his form.
Thanks as ever - great read.