Preamble

The Pre-Match Preamble – Gameweek 38

What a difference a year makes.

Just under twelve months ago I was lamenting my worst ever campaign in eight years of playing the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) game. I’d limped over the line, recording a rank of 192,837 – a pretty miserable result for someone who sleeps with the fixture list etched onto the back of his eyelids.

While there was no obvious excuse, it’s fascinating to reflect on the lessons I’d identified back then. It’s even more enlightening to see if I’ve really learnt anything from those struggles, and whether that’s helped me turn things around.

React as quickly as possible to form players and don’t be shy to use hits.
The stubbornness which prompted the slow reaction to the form of Aaron Ramsey and Yaya Toure last season was well documented. This term I’ve been fortunate in that there have been no real equivalents.

I got on Harry Kane in Gameweek 15 and he scored 17 goals in the following 14 weeks. I guess I can take some credit for that. Other than Kane, it’s difficult to identify a bandwagon that got close to surprising us by maintaining form over a long spell. Charlie Austin is probably one I missed for a while – more on him in a moment.

It would have been interesting if, for some reason, I’d resisted Kane, missed the early goals and then allowed my stubborn nature to keep me from acquiring him. That might still be a weakness of mine – this season didn’t really test that too much, although the Austin situation hints that I’ve still got work to do.

As for hits, I’ve certainly used them sparingly, taking just three all season. I’ve no doubt that they can be effective and, as I wrote last weekend, coupling them with a banked transfer to make three changes will be a tactic I will definitely take into next season.

Apply that rule to bandwagaons and hunches alike – if there’s form, back it.
I have had more conviction with my hunches. I backed Sadio Mane the moment he arrived and, while it took me some weeks to acquire him, once he was in, he stayed in. We know how that worked out.

Similarly, I adopted his team-mate Dusan Tadic off the back of his impressive early season statistics and held him long enough to ride out that Gameweek 8 haul.

These were both major turning points in the season but behind all that, my conviction that Eden Hazard would eventually surpass Cesc Fabregas and faith in Branisalv Ivanovic, Diego Costa and early investment in Kane, meant that I ticked over.

I still bought Aleks Kolarov for one Gameweek – just as a Christmas treat.

Don’t beat yourself up about chasing points when signing form players you’ve missed.
For a few weeks, I thought I’d made the wrong decision on Fabregas but Hazard did, by Christmas, emerge as the better option.

I missed some opportunities but, in the main, I jumped on bandwagons around the right time and never really suffered from missing huge hauls.

Charlie Austin hurt me for a while – I was slow on that one, mainly because I felt that, eventually, he and QPR would be worked out. I was right to an extent, but I still missed out on some value hauls that would have probably benefited my season.

I’m not convinced I’ve learnt this lesson yet, then.

Don’t take unnecessary gambles with the captaincy in a bid to make ground.
I think this made an impact. The Gargatron tells me that I used just 10 different captains this time around, indicating that I’ve been more cautious.

For weeks I kept the armband with Diego Costa, lured in by his consistency. It hurt me on occasions and benefited me on others. Following his departure, I’ve largely turned to Sergio Aguero and Eden Hazard.

I think I’ve taken risks two or three times with the armband – it’s hard to say if that’s been a factor in the turnaround. Despite lacking the Luis Suarez option, I’ve been surprised that the captaincy has seemed to be a straightforward decision in the main. With Hazard around, it may well be even easier next season.

Sign dominant centre-backs who win headers
Sign full-backs if they have an outstanding statistic in their favour – normally, crosses or tackles.
These two combine and, in many ways, highlight how a subtle change in rules can change the FPL landscape.

For a good part of last season, I’d backed the attacking full-back over the dominant centre-back and was punished by the bonus system which clearly favoured the latter. I actually doubled on Southampton (Calum Chambers and Luke Shaw), only to eject that tactic when it was clear it was failing miserably.

A year on, the double Southampton full-back has undoubtedly been one of the key strategies when forming our defences. For a good portion of this season, having both Nathaniel Clyne and Ryan Bertrand proved a mini-league game changer.

Overall, the bonus point system was tweaked, raiding full-backs no longer suffered heavily from failed dribbles and, suddenly, there was bonus balance at the back.

I didn’t have to adjust my tactics – the FPL put things right on my behalf.

There’s the new lesson to consider: if there are rule changes for next season, don’t underestimate how they can influence our strategies – however subtle they appear to be.

Don’t be shy spending money on defenders if they also offer goal threat.
Defenders scored 104 goals last season, which has declined to 90 so far this term.

The Chelsea pairing of John Terry and Branislav Ivanovic have benefited most from their attacking menace at set-plays and, by owning the latter all season, I guess I put this one straight.

By prioritising full-backs last season, I turned my back on the points earned from set-piece threat. Given that Seamus Coleman and Leighton Baines have declined in goal output this season, there’s good reason to say that this has been more important than ever.

Arguably I made the right choice. Ivanovic has had that threat at set-plays, whilst also being an attacking full-back providing crosses. With Terry ageing, the Serb will be one of the first names in my 2015/16 squad.

If you think a player is injury prone, he’s likely to eventually live up to that tag.
I need to remind myself of this one over the summer: my Diego Costa habit almost de-railed my season at one point. Eventually, the Chelsea man repaid my faith but, at several stages, I questioned whether I was making a fatal error by holding him too long. I got away with it. Just.

I’ll resist Costa next season. I certainly won’t touch Daniel Sturridge.

Of course, as I also stated this time last year, every season hands us a set of different challenges that will ultimately decide the fate of our campaigns.

Sometimes single transfers like Mane and Tadic can make a major difference, sometimes it’s having conviction in a player like Ivanovic or Hazard that tips the balance. Alongside this, we have to enjoy some fortune – the right injuries at the right time, penalty saves, points from the bench. These can all conspire for and against us and sometimes, they just fall in place.

I’m not sure how much of my season has been down to this luck over my own judgment. I do know that it’s followed on from my worst ever campaign and that, in some ways, that may have helped. Perhaps this will come as some comfort to those who look on this season’s rank and flinch.

While I’ve spent this morning reflecting on the story of my own campaign, much of my focus today will be on the very top of the FPL rankings. Once again, we’re blessed with seeing members of our community competing for the top prize.

Simon March, aka “Dufflinks”, looks well placed to seal the title as he seeks to protect a 34-point lead. The likes of Kev Gleave, Jack Wain, Jon Sumner, Stuart Greenacre and AbuBakar Siddiq give chase – all either members of the FFS Leagues, posters on our pages or both.

It’s this that makes me most proud and convinces me that 2014/15 has been a season to savour.

I’ll be pre-ambling your way again in August.

Good luck to all.

Mark Mark created the beast. He's now looking to tame it.

3,813 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Jafooli
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Chris Foy's last game - on penos?

    • 11 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Plenty of games I could watch with my differentials.

    But I think I might just enjoy the real football and watch Hull v United.

    What will everyone be watching?

    1. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      newcastle v w ham

    2. Daniel Exeter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Hull vs United

  2. Carrzinho
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Chasing mini league with Hazard (c) today. 15 points separate and all above me sold him. Squeaky bum time.

    1. Pinturicchio
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      That's a fun spot to be in. Enjoy it.

    2. AIRMILES
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Nice. Good work. I think you'll do well. Sunderland played midweek and secured survival. They will have been celebrating, and I think they'll be really below par today. Could be a 6-0.

  3. Too Mane Men
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Gotten rid of Haz and Alexis in favour of Cout, Mata and Ozil. Still remains a gamble post line ups.. Loving the false 9 with Cout though.

    1. Too Mane Men
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      (C)outinho* that is so added bonus hopefully.

  4. FPL Daniel
    • 15 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Well for last min transfer Milner first sub isn't bad. Hahahaha 🙂

  5. PlayON
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    30 minutes left to enter the £2,500 in GUARANTEED POTS and £200 in FREE ENTRY games on offer today at http://www.playon.co

    Enter up to 3x teams in each game before the 15.00 deadline at:

    https://playon.co/en/premier-league/weekly-gameweek-38

  6. Weasel Boy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Feck it I'm starting Jelavic over Kane

    1. whitters_2014
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      I would

  7. icywrists23
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    good luck everyone

  8. odannyboys
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Putting afew last minute bets on, which games do you think will be over 2 goals?

    1. whitters_2014
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      hull man u

    2. Give us a smile
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Leicester - qpr
      Man U - Hull

    3. AlCapwnUK
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Palace v Swans

    4. Captain Peacock
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      City v Saints
      Leicester v QPR
      Hull v Man U

  9. Give us a smile
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Rival also sold Haz so not that big of a deal in that respect, just means I could've used my FT for Giroud>Benteke/Lukaku 🙁

  10. The Mandalorian
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    I'm just on my way to Madrid for a holiday and guess who is sitting 3 rows in front of me? David De Gea!

    1. Mull
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      We're going to need proof.

    2. Hyperion
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Oh no it's started already.

    3. whitters_2014
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      -_-

    4. Captain Shirokov
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Sure, Jimmy.

  11. TheCurseOfRaheem
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Sold Haz. Siggy out. Kos & Giroud benched, could not have imagined it going much worse really.

    1. ILOVEBAPS
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Ouch. Got a good bench?

    2. In Like Flynn.
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Subs.

  12. U-jin King™
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Ramsey to come on and score two goals

    1. Hyperion
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Please God

    2. ILOVEBAPS
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Weirder things have happened!

      Can't see Walcott lasting too long, he's been out an age.

  13. Hyperion
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    So my ML looks like coming down to Mignolet, Kolarov, Cambiasso and Ramsey + 3 points (me) vs. Schmeichel, Vlaar, Cazorla and Kane. Not feeling terribly confident. 😆

  14. Captain Shirokov
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Lol@brady

  15. gavigan
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    I had no idea the deadline was before 2:45pm until now. Oh well, Sanchez (c) it is

    1. Scoredelario
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      lol

    2. ILOVEBAPS
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Could work out really really well!!

  16. Captain Shirokov
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Wow, Carver is the worst manager ever.

    1. Mull
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Best coach in the league though.

    2. Heels_Over_Head
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      good talking point

    3. Bubz
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      So deluded as well

  17. Scoredelario
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    People saying Lampard will get pens because it is his last game... What about Yaya?

    1. AlCapwnUK
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Yaya better be on pens

    2. Bubz
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      What about Aguero?

      1. Scoredelario
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        9 years, 5 months ago

        The point is... It is Yaya's last game too so what world could exist where Lampard suddenly pulls rank?

        I agree aguero should get them

  18. Jafooli
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Best player: Gerrard or Lampard?

    1. Bubz
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Gerrard

    2. Scoredelario
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Lampard IMO

    3. Heels_Over_Head
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Frank

    4. Jafooli
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      *gets popcorn

    5. AlCapwnUK
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Gerrard is more complete for me.
      But we can all agree both are great for club and cack for country

      1. Heels_Over_Head
        • 11 Years
        9 years, 5 months ago

        +1 on the 2nd part

    6. Hyperion
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Lamps

    7. whitters_2014
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      xavi

    8. Captain Shirokov
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Lamps

    9. Optimus.
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Gerrard..Lampard would be nothing without his spotkicks

      1. Captain Shirokov
        • 13 Years
        9 years, 5 months ago

        *waits for a few bites*

        1. Optimus.
          • 13 Years
          9 years, 5 months ago

          😀

          1. Jafooli
            • 12 Years
            9 years, 5 months ago

            That fishing gif at the ready?

              1. Jafooli
                • 12 Years
                9 years, 5 months ago

                😆

      2. Jafooli
        • 12 Years
        9 years, 5 months ago

        😀

    10. Forza
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Cleverleh, then Lampard.

    11. Jafooli
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Or Scholes?

      1. RoysCallerAnne
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        9 years, 5 months ago

        Scholes easily ahead of Gerrard and Lampard.

    12. Saniul
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Just because Lampard was a better poacher it cannot make him a better player.
      Gerrard hands-down.

  19. Optimus.
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Thankfully with the big funds I banked selling Hazard it enabled me to purchase Costa over Drogba

    1. AlCapwnUK
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      swish

    2. Heels_Over_Head
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      : - D

  20. In Like Flynn.
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    That's it SKY, Mail, Sportal, and Telegraph teams done sorted and in place.

    Not too many shortages given what might have been.
    Fingers crossed for the captain changes.

    Good luck to you all in the other games.

    Unless you're ahead of me in SKY.

  21. Hyperion
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    If by some miracle I win my ML today it will be up there with the best days of my life.

    1. Heels_Over_Head
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      I hope you're very young

      1. Hyperion
        • 13 Years
        9 years, 5 months ago

        I've just had a miserable life. 😆

    2. Optimus.
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Some life 😉

      1. Hyperion
        • 13 Years
        9 years, 5 months ago

        Yeah it's been rubbish haha. But to defend myself, I work on Football Manager so winning the work league carries a certain level of prestige, there's 3 points in it going into the final day and if I win I plan to retire as I find fantasy too stressful. So a lot riding on it.

  22. AlCapwnUK
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Who still has some diffs on the field?
    Mine are: Bolaise, Ozil and Yaya. And the way things are going, Kane as well

    1. Holmes
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Cahill, Stones, Skrtel, Willian, Mane, Coutinho

      1. AlCapwnUK
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 5 months ago

        could be a good week

    2. Heels_Over_Head
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Yaya & Wally

    3. Sánchez
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Janmat 😎

    4. Feeling_blue
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      Milner, Wally, Vardy, Smalling

  23. Saniul
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Can anyone tell me why Liverpool fans are saying that Ibe is better than Sterling? Oh come on.

    1. Optimus.
      • 13 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      You are not better than Sterling

      1. whitters_2014
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 5 months ago

        he is hazard... ?

  24. Forza
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Hamilton fail!

  25. Rains of Castamere
    • 9 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Can't believe I actually called GW38 transfers right for once.

    Everyone starting, inc Haz and Theo, whereas nearest rivals have the likes of Giroud and Costa.

    Good luck everyone

    1. Donkey_Sanctuary
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 5 months ago

      I can't believe you've chosen a username which relates to a song which glorifies Tywin Lannister

      1. Somalion
        • 14 Years
        9 years, 5 months ago

        I think it's terrific!

  26. AlCapwnUK
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Reckon Giroud will get on the pitch today?
    If not i'm all about Boydinho

  27. Wolverine
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 15 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    It'd be an absolute disgrace if the leagues best coach got relegated today!

  28. Captain Shirokov
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    Ashley 😯

  29. Joga Bonito®
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    9 years, 5 months ago

    With it being Drogs last game he'll take penalties right? Fingers crossed.