Rotation Pairs – Bournemouth & Brighton

The second in our series of articles looking at rotation pairs dares to venture away from the pure home and away partnership.

Our previous piece – which assessed West Brom and Swansea City as such a pairing – was a follow-up to our introductory article which explored the basic principles of fixture rotation.

This Brighton and Bournemouth pairing – a south coast marriage if you like – may not offer a succession of home matches, but it provides a run of obliging opponents nonetheless.

The Fixtures

As with our first article, we are dismissing the concept of season-long rotation.

Instead, we will extend the fixtures as far as Gameweek 22, at which point the second Wildcard becomes available and the first needs to have been put in play.

As before, we will split the 21 fixtures into two banks of matches.

Gameweeks 1-10
wba WAT wat WBA BHA NEW LEI EVE/tot whu/stk SOT

Gameweeks 11-21
swa HUD swa BUR SOT hud tot/mun BUR WAT WHU new

As you can see above, the first series of fixtures begins very strongly. While there are two encounters with Watford over the first three Gameweeks, that then settles to provide four successive home fixtures, two of which involve newly promoted sides.

Gameweek 8 is the first sticking point. Here we have the option of Brighton’s home fixture with Everton, or a daunting trip to Manchester City for Bournemouth.

The second batch of fixtures includes more away trips but only one significant trouble spot – the Gameweek 17 situation where Brighton travel to Spurs, while Bournemouth make their way to Old Trafford.

Nonetheless, this amounts to just two Gameweeks from 21 where we are forced to face a “tough” opponent when marrying these two sides.

In Practice

With this in mind, there are actually some very appealing options opened up by this partnership.

Begovic and Ryan
Both Brighton and Bournemouth offer us 4.5 options in goal via Asmir Begovic and Mat Ryan.

Both are likely to be first choice and, on their day, very capable shot-stoppers who can offer save points when their goal is breached.

It’s fair to say that, even when forced to select one of this pair for Gameweek 17, we’d expect some save point returns, either from Brighton’s clash with Spurs or Bournemouth’s with Manchester United.

Meanwhile, with 13 home matches over the 21 Gameweeks, we should reasonably expect some clean sheets.

Brighton were a force at the Amex Stadium last season, setting a Championship record of just 14 goals conceded from their 23 matches, shutting out opponents on 12 occasions.

Bournemouth were less convincing in the top flight, keeping 10 clean sheets in total, although six arrived at the Vitality Stadium.

Nonetheless, their home fixtures with Watford, Brighton, Huddersfield and Burnley during the 21-Gameweek spell look prime candidates for clean sheets. Meanwhile, the Seagulls offer West Brom, Newcastle, Stoke, Burnley and Watford as their most likely shutouts.

All in all, those are strong prospects for a joint 9.0 pairing in goal.

Francis and Suttner
Arguably, we could have a more effective pairing available in defence courtesy of Simon Francis and Markus Suttner.

Both are also priced at 4.5, with Francis the only likely Cherries starter in defence at that price point.

Meanwhile, Suttner has seen off Lewis Dunk as Brighton’s backline option of choice. The Austrian appears destined to claim regular starts at left-back and will share set-piece duties with Pascal Gross and Anthony Knockaert.

But while Suttner would seem secure, Francis’ starts are still in doubt.

Bournemouth’s acquisition of Nathan Ake appears likely to either oust Francis to the bench or leave him at right-back with Adam Smith perhaps moving to a midfield role.

Smith has played just 67 minutes pre-season but, even so, the doubts are unlikely to disperse ahead of Gameweek 1, so this pairing, while attractive, carries an element of risk.

Meanwhile, Suttner partnered with Charlie Daniels could also work as a 9.5 duo, although the Bournemouth left-back is far more difficult to bench given his attacking potential, even when away from home or against tougher opponents.

Three Way Rotation

Once again we should search for a third option who could work along with a Brighton/Bournemouth defensive partnership to plug the troublesome Gameweeks.

Having analysed the weak points in our two-way rotation, we’ve identified Burnley as the most likely addition.

Crucially the Clarets are on hand to offer us a home fixture with West Ham in Gameweek 8, with another attractive home fixture with Newcastle United in Gameweek 9.

Similarly, for Gameweek 17, Sean Dyche’s side present a Turf Moor clash with Stoke City to compensate for Bournemouth’s tie with at Man United and the Brighton visit to Spurs. All in all, Burnley are most efficient as an addition.

With Ben Mee the obvious candidate in the Burnley defence, he can be brought in to partner Francis and Suttner to provide a very attractive set of three 4.5 defenders. The doubts surrounding Francis’ starts is the caveat but, if that clears up, this is a trio worthy of consideration.

Attacking Rotation

The potential of this partnership extends to attacking areas thanks to a cast of viable budget/mid price assets on offer.

Bournemouth’s Ryan Fraser should already be considered in his own right and is a player that we’re backing to progress further this season.

Priced at just 5.5, the winger returned three goals and nine assists from 19 starts in 2016/17 and has already impressed over the summer with two more assists. He looks set to be even more influential for Howe’s men this season.

Fraser can work with either Brighton’s Pascal Gross (5.5) or Anthony Knockaert (6.0) in a midfield rotation to cover the run of fixtures listed above.

That pairing should provide able partners, with Gross perhaps the preferred option for those who want to look to Fraser for the majority of fixtures. Knockaert – with 15 goals and eight assists in the Championship – has the greater potential but the idea of benching the Frenchman, even against tougher opposition, could backfire and be a concern for some. The extra 0.5 is, of course, also a factor.

Rotation with a midfielder and an attacker is not so straightforward.

A combination of Fraser and Brighton’s Glenn Murray is an option, although there are understandable doubts that the 33-year-old striker may struggle upon returning to the top flight, despite his 23-goal campaign in the Championship.

Benik Afobe’s strong pre-season form seems unlikely to earn him regular starts for the Cherries over Josh King and Jermain Defoe, so the chances of a rotation option with either Gross or Knockaert appear slim.