Frisking The Fixtures – Gameweek 4 – The Strong

This is, in many ways, a turning point in the season for the fixture list. Not only does European football add to the schedule for many teams, the schedule also swings.

We’re about to enter a period which hands a selection of teams four matches at home over the next six Gameweeks, while others face just two encounters on their own turf.

Over eight Gameweeks, that extends to some clubs having five of their next eight at home, but others play just three times in front of their own fans.

With this in mind, our weekly fixture list analysis attempts to identify those sides that should be entering or exiting our mid-term plans.

For the key teams, we’ll assess their prospects in terms of goals and clean sheets and also pinpoint the stage at which their schedule turns.

Southampton

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The Prospects – Goals
Saints encouragingly rank sixth for total goal attempts with 49, but a conversion rate of just 6.1% is letting them down – they have failed to score in two of their three matches so far.

Four home fixtures offer encouragement, though, while a trip to Crystal Palace could also be favourable – the Eagles have shipped five over their two home encounters.

Upcoming visitors Watford, Newcastle United and West Bromwich Albion have been fairly solid at the back, but should still surrender opportunities. However, the Manchester United test is also on the horizon, and Jose Mourinho’s rearguard have yet to concede.

The Prospects – Clean Sheets
Despite returning two shutouts to this point, Southampton rank joint-fourth for the most shots conceded inside the penalty area with 28.

It’s the away fixtures that actually appear more promising in terms of further clean sheets; Palace have yet to score, while Stoke City have only created one big chance.

At home, West Brom have managed to carve out just two big chances, while Newcastle have failed to score in two of their three matches.

But Watford have been an improved attacking force so far under Marco Silva and could provide a tricky opponent this weekend.

The Turning Point
Mauricio Pellegrino’s men look likely to simmer under ‘The Strong’ banner for a while longer, with their testing fixtures only really beginning from Gameweek 12 onwards.

Verdict
With Virgil van Dijk back training with the first-team, and Wesley Hoedt also expected to push for a start, both Jack Stephens and Maya Yoshida appear at risk – if not immediately, certainly in Gameweeks to come. This promotes Cedric Soares, and if your budget can stretch that far, Ryan Bertrand, as the favoured options from the Saints backline.

Further forward, the fixtures mean that Manolo Gabbiadini remains a viable third forward option, while Dusan Tadic and Nathan Redmond continue to show promise without delivering as fourth midfielders.

Swansea City

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The Prospects – Goals
The Swans face four very favourable home fixtures, starting with the visit of Newcastle United.

But the Welsh side’s attack will need to improve – they rank bottom for total shots and close-range efforts, although they should be boosted – at least in terms of confidence – by the arrival of some new faces in the transfer window.

The Magpies’ defensive numbers are surprisingly impressive given that they’ve lost two of their three matches. However, Paul Clement’s men will expect opportunities to get among the goals.

Similarly, Marco Silva’s Watford will likely visit the Liberty Stadium with an emphasis on attack and give up some space to Clement’s attack.

While they’ve kept three clean sheets, Huddersfield Town have allowed four big chances, and have only played one match away from home. Meanwhile, the Leicester City match-up also looks promising with Foxes conceding six goals and seven big chances to this point.

The away trips also give room for optimism. West Ham United have conceded more goals (10) than any other side, while the Spurs defence has been breached in both of their encounters at Wembley.

The Prospects – Clean Sheets
Impressively, Swansea City have managed two shutouts already, although they’ve conceded more shots (62) than any other team.

The home fixtures should provide further strong opportunities for defensive returns.

Newcastle have only notched three times, while Huddersfield have scored just once over the last two Gameweeks.

The Watford and Leicester match-ups are far trickier to predict, and returns at Spurs and, to a lesser extent, West Ham seem unlikely.

The Turning Point
The schedule remains strong – aside from trips to Arsenal and Chelsea – all the way up to Gameweek 16, before Swansea face Manchester City, Everton and Liverpool in the space of four treacherous Gameweeks.

Verdict
There certainly looks value to be had in the Swans rearguard, with Lukasz Fabianski always a reliable source of save points. And if Clement continues to play with wing-backs, Kyle Naughton represents a strong budget option.

Renato Sanches and Wilfried Bony provide fresh options in midfield and attack, but Tom Carroll should continue to offer good value due to his set-piece duties – if he can keep his place in the side. Tammy Abraham looks a potential bargain while Bony builds up his match fitness, although the Ivorian is the favourite to claim penalty duties.

West Ham United

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The Prospects – Goals
Four home fixtures in the next six should be a blessing, although the Hammers only managed to score 19 goals at the London Stadium last season.

The Huddersfield, Swansea and Brighton matches will be seen as winnable ties and offer Slaven Bilic’s side the opportunity to get a foothold in what has been a testing early campaign.

Spurs have shown a little vulnerability this season, conceding three goals and giving up 23 close-range efforts, but attacking points will likely be hard to come by against Mauricio Pochettino’s disciplined side.

Away from home, Burnley have allowed 55 shots already but are always a tough nut to crack at Turf Moor. Meanwhile, a trip to The Hawthorns seems unlikely to promise significant attacking returns given the defensive approach adopted by the Baggies, even in home matches.

The Prospects – Clean Sheets
Bilic’s men have been all at sea at the back, but the upcoming schedule could allow them to settle.

The Hammers were strong at keeping clean sheets against the weaker sides at home last season, producing shutouts against five of the bottom seven.

The Huddersfield, Swansea and Brighton clashes all look positive, then, while the West Brom and Burnley match-ups are also reasonable away trips in this respect.

The Turning Point
The fixture list is very kind all the way up to Gameweek 10, but things turn decidedly nasty from that point – starting with a home meeting versus Liverpool and followed by a brutal run against Everton, Manchester City, Chelsea and Arsenal.

Verdict
Javier Hernandez is the third most transferred-out player following his one-point return in Gameweek 3, but he looks to have the fixtures to flourish over the coming period.

Michail Antonio may be the leading pick from midfield as Manuel Lanzini continues to battle with a knee problem, while Marko Arnautovic remains suspended until Gameweek 5. At the back, goalkeeper Joe Hart looks to offer the best value, with Angelo Ogbonna the only active and secure 4.5 option on offer.

Newcastle United

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The Prospects – Goals
Apart from the 3-0 victory over West Ham, the Magpies’ attack has not been overly impressive but is still the strongest of the promoted sides in terms of shots on goal, with 36 attempts.

They face three of their next six at home, but it may be on the road where they find more joy.

Both Swansea and Southampton feature among the five teams allowing the most penalty area shots, and the visit to Brighton could well be the toughest of those three away ties.

At home, the Palace clash stands out given their early season struggles, but Liverpool have kept back-to-back shutouts, and Stoke have only conceded twice.

The Prospects – Clean Sheets
It’s at the back where things look more hopeful.

Brighton and Palace are both yet to score, while Swansea and Southampton have failed to find the net in two of their three matches.

Stoke have also struggled for a cutting edge, scoring only twice and creating just one big chance, but defensive points are very unlikely against red-hot Liverpool.

The Newcastle defence has been pretty solid, allowing just 16 penalty area shots, and could offer real value over this six Gameweek spell.

The Turning Point
Rafa Benitez’s side have a favourable run all the way up to Gameweek 11, with the away fixtures, in particular, offering hope they can build on their Gameweek 3 victory. Trips to Manchester United and Chelsea signal the start of a more mixed run of matches from Gameweek 12 onwards.

Verdict
With Benitez not adding to his goalkeeper resources before the transfer window closed, Rob Elliott looks a superb budget enabler and will surely be considered as a starter in our squads during this period.

Elsewhere, Ciaran Clark, Matt Ritchie and perhaps Joselu could all provide Fantasy managers with some value.

Also consider…

Spurs
Their fixtures between Gameweeks 5 and 8 (SWA whu hud BOU) all look decidedly winnable, although that run does coincide with UEFA Champions League matches, which adds an extra variable and weariness to the legs.

Clashes against both Merseyside clubs are a major negative, however.

Suspended for three European fixtures, Dele Alli could be a more secure option than Christian Eriksen over the coming weeks, while Harry Kane’s incredible early season numbers suggest that the goals will soon flow.

In defence, Ben Davies remains the go-to option as long as Danny Rose remains sidelined, with the Welshman earning a share of set-piece duties this season.

Brighton & Hove Albion
The next three (WBA bou NEW) are very promising for Chris Hughton’s side, although without a goal, and with Tomer Hemed and Glenn Murray nursing injuries, the attack remains a major concern.

Much will rest on the shoulders of Anthony Knockaert, while Jose Izquierdo might be worth monitoring as an unlikely differential.

Only four teams have allowed fewer penalty area shots than Brighton, so with the added bonus of his set-piece threat, Lewis Dunk could shine as a budget option in defence at this time.

Manchester City
Pep Guardiola’s side face Liverpool and Arsenal in the next four but, around those clashes, their schedule looks kind. Indeed, the period between Gameweeks 5 and 15 looks their best run of opponents over the campaign.

But with the Champions League group stage about to begin, concern over rotation is set to be a major issue.

David Silva currently looks the safest bet from the midfield, with Gabriel Jesus appearing to have a slight edge over Sergio Aguero up front. At the back, there is continued uncertainty, with Vincent Kompany perhaps the only secure starter – although he is nursing a knock and will surely remain a fitness risk throughout the season.

Everton
The Toffees’ evil start to the campaign is about to end, with Gameweek 6 marking the start of a dramatic turn in their schedule.

The outlook is very positive all the way up to Gameweek 21, meaning that we should start preparations to consider the Everton assets.

At the back, Jordan Pickford and Michael Keane have shown promise over the opening weeks, while Mason Holgate may just have cemented the role on the right to offer a 4.4 option.

Gylfi Sigurdsson and Wayne Rooney appears the players most likely to work their way into our 15-man squads in attack, with the Icelander a real temptation given his recent brace of goals away from the domestic stage.