This Much We Know – Gameweek 4

A weekend with more rough than smooth for many FPL managers as big name bandwagons come off the road and many of us who Wildcarded are cursed by the return of the ex.

The debate between Harry Kane and Romelu Lukaku rages on, while dire form sours the tasty fixtures at Goodison Park and St Mary’s.

Would the next Riyad Mahrez please stand up, please stand up

With a goal and an assist in their first two matches, Richarlison and Aaron Mooy were dubbed hot properties in the emergent FPL season, since when the pair have yet to tally a shot on target or big chance between them.

While Richarlison falling figures have not discouraged new suitors, heavy traffic is now being directed towards Pascal Groß and Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting, darlings of Gameweek 4 with a brace apiece after three consecutive blanks.

The likes of Matt Ritchie, Jesé and Abdoulaye Doucouré are also showing signs of life to suggest we are spoilt for potential midfield budget gems.

But perhaps we need to accept that one swallow does not a summer make and await the emergence of a consistent performer instead of leaping from bandwagon to bandwagon with reckless abandon.

Does the exception prove the rule?

On a related note, Kevin de Bruyne owners were justifiably crowing after the Prince Harry lookalike bossed the points and silenced the naysayers against Liverpool. Except, did he really do either?

No fewer than three Manchester City players exceeded the Belgian’s Gameweek 4 points tally of nine – Gabriel Jesus (12), Benjamin Mendy (ten) and even forgotten man Leroy Sané (13points from a respectable half an hour’s toil).

Nobody can question the quality of De Bruyne’s set-piece deliveries and, against ten men at the Etihad, the question was simply how many points he would garner. However, a £9.9 million price tag for a player who openly admits he is playing deep and could easily be part of the Champions League-induced rotation lottery does not convince me he can be value for money over the season.

It would be unfair to say that this dog has had his one day – because we all know more will surely follow – but I would still be tempted to take the points and run if I was on a Wildcard.

If, indeed, I still had my Wildcard…

It was a pleasure to burn

And it seems I am, if not alone, at least more friendless in burning my Wildcard early on than was the case last season.

With over a million new players signing up to FPL this season, you might expect the build-up to Gameweek 4 to resemble a scene from Farenheit 451.

Not so, it seems. Only around 5.5% of players (275,000) of players have joined Mark and me in succumbing to the temptation of an early Wildcard this season compared to 8.5% at this stage last season.

With a distinct lack of statistics, imminent fixture shifts, big players like Alexis Sánchez, Philippe Coutinho and Eden Hazard rejoining the fold (some more reluctantly than others) and, crucially, a price-change market more stagnant than that of the UK, it seems that the decision to Remain in charge of our Wildcards would perhaps have been the more prudent course.

Time for yet another Mane man pun?

Sadio Mané’s -2 points in my own post-Wildcard team seem symbolic of my hamartia: undeniably an epic fail for my increasingly ironically named Skeye’s The Limit side.

Is this, however, also the beginning of the end for a Liverpool team set to be deprived of their Senegalese talisman for two Gameweeks?

Mane’s previous season ended on April 1 after a clash with Leighton Baines, but at least Liverpool couldn’t be accused of limping over the line in his absence. For the remaining fixtures, the Reds still managed to notch an average of 1.8 goals per match, compared to 2.1 goals with Mane fit and playing.

Interestingly, though, Liverpool’s shots on target improved in the final weeks of the season from around 6 to 6.5 per match and they also created chances at a quicker rate – every 5.3 minutes as opposed to 5.8 minutes.

From an FPL perspective, perhaps Mane’s enforced absence is a blessing rather than a curse, with Jurgen Klopp’s rotational options diminished in the short term and the likes of Mohammed Salah and Roberto Firmino set to pick up the slack against Burnley and Leicester City.

Salah – whose nine shots on target is joint top for all players – is a particularly intriguing option for those backing the law of averages over clinical finishing.

Back to bed

So while Liverpool may yet pick up the odd point in September, spare a thought for those ultimate trolls, Southampton and Everton.

Many of us gorged on Saints, lured in by a glittering fixture list which masked just two minor drawbacks: they can’t score goals or (it would now seem) keep clean sheets.

I can’t complain too much after banking fortuitous defensive points from the games against Huddersfield and a Swansea City side whose cutting edge is reflected by their season-low tally of seven shots on target, but it seems Southampton’s relatively poor underlying statistics are now being justly rewarded.

I’m at least heartened by the fact Southampton travel to Crystal Palace for a guaranteed nine-goal thriller.

Everton have the excuse of having faced tougher opposition, but sharing, as they do, Swansea’s unwelcome shots on target record, we face the age old form or fixtures choice as the Toffees move into a sea of blue fixtures after visiting Old Trafford in the final-match up of Gameweek Five.

For Nathan Redmond and Manolo Gabbiadini, read Gylfi Sigurdsson and Wayne Rooney, with the latter’s cautions (three) already outnumbering his goals (two), although Bournemouth and Burnley are enticing visitors still to come to Goodison.

The last word in strikers

We can postulate, prevaricate and ponder all we want, but Harry Kane and Romelu Lukaku have both arrived at the party and each is craving our undivided attention.

With captaincy in mind, it seems unthinkable that the successful FPL manager can dare to go without one of these premium models. Whether to side with the masses (57.5%) and plump for the consistency of Lukaku or to splash a little extra cash for Kane’s fixtures and potentially explosive returns seems, for now, to be a moot point.

Of more interest to those whose budget doesn’t stretch to both goal machines is finding a second striker who could conceivably keep pace with the pair.

Álvaro Morata has quietly risen to the top of the strikers’ standings, whilst Jesus’s recent brace was inevitable the moment I had pressed the button to release him.

So if you can’t choose between the sheriffs, at least give careful thought to the deputies.