Rotation Watch – Every Minute Counts

With the internationals finally out of the way, we can start to focus on the weekend once again as Gameweek 31 edges ever-closer. From a Fantasy perspective, however, Monday’s FA Cup Sixth Round replay between Chelsea and United looms large and casts a significant shadow over Saturday’s league action. The Stamford Bridge showdown gets underway at 12.30pm – less than 48 hours after both sides travel to Southampton and Sunderland respectively – and with rest and rotation already biting hard, we take a look at the game time of both clubs over the past 30 days:

While Rafa Benitez is renowned for his obsession with analysing player fatigue in order to ensure maximum efficiency, Sir Alex Ferguson has also been vocal on the subject in recent weeks. With a 15 point margin over City at the summit, the United boss is certainly utilising the strength and depth of his squad, making up to eight changes for the league win over Reading last time out. Indeed, with such a substantial gap in the league, the fear from Fantasy managers is that Ferguson will prioritise the Chelsea match – given that a win over the Blues would then set up back-to-back matches against City in the league and cup, it’s a fair assumption, with Ferguson desperate to atone for the disappointing end to the previous campaign.

Prior to the internationals, Ferguson revealed the club were even prepared to splash the cash on a fleet of private jets in order to ensure their players arrive back as quickly as possible:

“Freshness is the name of the game now as we come towards the end of the season and the intensity of vital games coming in quick succession. It’s not necessarily putting out your best team, it’s picking the freshest. This will be a real problem when the players come back at the end of the international break after playing two games involving long flights, particularly with Chicharito in Mexico [to play USA] and Shinji Kagawa with Japan [who have a World Cup qualifier in Jordan on Tuesday]. In fact, we’re making arrangements for some players to fly home by privately hired jet after their matches, to make sure they get home as quickly and smoothly as possible…Tiredness is a great leveller but we will do our utmost to make sure we field the freshest possible teams….The players who have missed the international trips, like Ryan Giggs, Anderson, Nemanja Vidic, Alexander Buttner and Rafael, will be key players in the run-in. Paul Scholes is back in training and will play a part in keeping us fresh.”

On Tuesday afternoon, the United boss was once again hammering home the importance of squad rotation. During a radio interview Ferguson reiterated:

“Every coach is praying that their players come back fit. They played last Friday and they are playing tonight. Once I know later this evening how many minutes each player has played, I will start to think about my team for Saturday. I have to make sure I have some freshness in the team because we also have Chelsea on Monday lunchtime. It is a big ask for our squad and something we need to concentrate on because I need to make sure I pick the right teams.”

With Ferguson’s words ringing in our ears, then, we’ve analysed the game time for every United and Chelsea player across the past 30 days, taking in all club competitions and the recent internationals. By no means are we suggesting we’re able to second-guess either manager’s selection policies; it’s more a case of looking for clues and hints as to how they may utilise their playing squads over the busy upcoming period.

Man United Squad – Consecutive & International Minutes Played

1 = Saturday March 2, Norwich (h) Premier League
2 = Tuesday March 5, Real Madrid (h) Champions League
3 = Sunday March 10, Chelsea (h) FA Cup
4 = Saturday March 16, Reading (h) Premier League
5+6 = recent internationals

Not only have we looked at overall minutes for club and country over the featured period, we’ve also created a “counter” for consecutive minutes, if you like. Basically, this is reset to zero whenever a player is rested completely for a game, as we can see in the case of David De Gea. Over the past four for United, he is the only player to manage every minute and has a “United Run” of 360 minutes. Having failed to feature in either of Spain’s recent internationals, though, his “counter” is set to zero – there will be a 14 day gap between his last competitive appearance, against Reading on Saturday March 16, and his club’s next scheduled match away to Sunderland this weekend.

On the other hand, Chris Smalling has now played 270 consecutive minutes – this includes United’s Gameweek 30 win over Reading and England’s pair of internationals. Potentially, then, this looks good news for Rafael, given the Brazilian has been rested for all three of those games, though while Patrice Evra has played just 90 minutes over the same period, back-to-back starts against Sunderland and Chelsea would hand him 270 minutes over six days, with France’s clash against Spain on Tuesday evening also factored in; something for Ferguson to consider, then.

Somewhat unsurprisingly, it’s Robin Van Persie and Wayne Rooney who lead the way for consecutive minutes played. Both forwards featured in United’s four matches and also participated in each of their respective nation’s World Cup qualifiers over the last few days; Van Persie’s “counter” is now at 448 minutes over six straight games, while Rooney isn’t far behind on 432 successive minutes across six matches. Given that Smalling is next in line on 270 minutes, though, the gap between the two forwards and the rest of the United squad is substantial.

Indeed, when analysing playing time over the internationals, Ferguson will see that two more of his attacking options – Shinji Kagawa and Javier Hernandez – started both internationals. Intriguingly, though, in the first cup game against Chelsea, it was Hernandez who got the nod alongside Rooney, with Van Persie climbing off the bench to replace the Mexican just after the hour mark – given their respective “counters”, it may well be that Ferguson gives Van Persie and Rooney just one start apiece over the two fixtures. Kagawa has now played 261 consecutive minutes and looks in line to be rested for the Sunderland match, while Ryan Giggs looks a fair bet to feature against the Black Cats, having been well rested over the international break – another potential factor here is that he was omitted from the side to face Chelsea last time round.

Looking at Ferguson’s team selection for league games alone over the period, only six players – De Gea, Rooney, Van Persie, Smalling, Nemanja Vidic and Anderson – played both times. The inclusion of the latter two here backs up Ferguson’s words on squad depth above and with Paul Scholes, Phil Jones and Nani edging their way back from injuries, there are plenty options for the United boss to consider. With their home league clash against City seven days after the Chelsea clash, though, there’s little doubt the upcoming schedule is kinder on United than on the Blues and perhaps makes them a little less prone to wholesale alterations.

Chelsea Squad – Consecutive & International Minutes Played

1 =Wednesday February 27, Middlesbrough (a), FA Cup
2 = Saturday March 2, West Brom (h) Premier League
3 = Thursday March 7, Steaua Bucharest (a), Europa League
4 = Sunday March 10, Man United (a), FA Cup
5 = Thursday March 14, Steaua Bucharest (h), Europa League
6 = Sunday March 17, West Ham (h), Premier League
7+8 =recent internationals

Chelsea’s schedule has been even more hectic over the last 30 days. Rafa Benitez’s side have played six times due to Europa League commitments and the situation doesn’t get better any time soon – the London outfit have a run of four games in the next nine days, with a European tie against Rubin Kazan three days after the United showdown and three days before a league clash at home to Sunderland. It’s times like this that Benitez’s rotation policy could really hit Fantasy plans hard.

Similarly to United, the keeper situation has been the most straightforward. Petr Cech played all six of the Chelsea matches from start to finish but unlike David De Gea, he played 180 minutes over the recent international break – having featured in eight games in succession, then, his “counter” sits at 720 minutes; more than any other player in our analysis.

David Luiz headed into Brazil’s international friendlies with a “Chelsea Run” of 452 minutes. Having climbed off the bench as a sub late on in the FA Cup win over Middlesbrough, he started all of the following five and was subbed off towards the end of the Gameweek 30 win over West Ham with a knock – having since recovered, he played every minute of the internationals and his “counter” now sits at a total run of 632 successive minutes. When you compare this to every other Chelsea defender, he certainly looks the most likely to be rested for the Southampton clash before returning to face United – intriguingly, he was also selected at Old Trafford earlier in the month.

The right-back situation is also significant. Benitez has selected Cesar Azpilicueta for each of Chelsea’s last three and the Spaniard looks in the driving seat to return at St Mary’s – he failed to feature for Spain over the internationals, while Branislav Ivanovic played 180 minutes for Serbia. Indeed, Azpilicueta may well get the nod for the United game, too, leaving Ivanovic to turn out against Rubin Kazan on Thursday. Elsewhere at the back, there’s been a definite pattern in John Terry’s game time under Benitez of late. The Chelsea skipper has played every second match and looks likely to get the nod against the Saints, though Benitez’s plans at the back may depend on Gary Cahill’s availability, to a certain extent – he missed both England’s matches through injury.

Further up the field, though, the situation perhaps offers a little extra hope for Juan Mata’s owners. The Spaniard headed into the internationals with a “counter” of 382 minutes – just 23 less than Eden Hazard’s 405 minutes – but has played just 16 minutes for his country over the past fortnight, while the Belgian managed 180 minutes. Over the past 30 days, then, Mata has played 398 minutes over successive matches – Hazard, on the other hand, is now up to 585 minutes, while Oscar, surprisingly, has featured more than either of the duo, with 588 minutes.

The summer signing is one of only three outfield players – along with compatriots Luiz and Ramires – to start more than four of the last six for Chelsea, with five appearances apiece in the first XI. While Ramires missed out of the Brazil games with an adductor problem, Oscar’s game time was managed more efficiently that Luiz’s – he was subbed off just after the hour mark in both games. Nevertheless, he has now started seven of the past eight matches for club and country – Mata, by comparison has four starts and almost 200 minutes less over the last 30 days. This is likely to boost the prospects of Victor Moses starting at Southampton; while he has featured in all four of the previous games for club and country, with his “counter” sitting at 215 minutes, Moses had just one international over the two weeks with Nigeria.

Finally, up front the situation has been somewhat dictated by Demba Ba’s ineligibility for Europa League matches. As the table shows, Benitez has alternated Ba and Fernando Torres over the past six games and if the pattern continues, the Spaniard could be set to return to the first XI on Saturday, given that Ba started the Blues’ last match. This would allow the former Newcastle man to face United in the cup on Monday and Sunderland in Gameweek 32 , with Torres leading the line against Rubin Kazan at Stamford Bridge on Thursday evening.