Having served up 15 goals and three assists by the start of April, the 2013/14 season could hardly have been going any better for Jay Rodriguez. The Southampton forward had also made his England debut earlier in the campaign, starting in the 2-0 defeat to Chile at Wembley, but his World Cup dreams were dashed when he picked up a serious knee injury against Manchester City, suffering a rupture to his anterior cruciate ligament.
It was initially thought the injury would rule the former Burnley man out for around six months, but following a setback in November, Rodriguez’ knee went under the knife again. The Saints striker eventually returned to full training towards the end of April, but with only a handful of matches left in the season, Saints manager Ronald Koeman decided it was best for Rodriguez to focus his efforts on returning to action during pre-season.
In terms of pricing, Rodriguez’ output saw him subsequently priced at 7.5 in Fantasy Premier League (FPL) last time out, despite mainly being fielded on the flank by former manager Mauricio Pochettino in 2013/14. During his year under the Argentine, Rodriguez’ 15 strikes equated to a 14.9% goal conversion rate – higher than then-team-mate Rickie Lambert (12.6%) in that campaign, and considerably better than Graziano Pelle’s 9.8% in the season just gone. Rodriguez also comes out on top when comparing the average points per appearance between himself and the Italian, with the England man averaging 4.6 points in 2013/14, compared to 3.9 for Pelle.
THE PROSPECTS
Before Southampton’s final match of the season, ironically at the Etihad Stadium, the scene of Rodriguez’s injury more than a year earlier, the forward stated he was ready to return to the first-team picture:
“Physically, I’ve improved all my stats from what I did when I was fit, so I’ve ticked those boxes and now it’s just a case of ticking the boxes of being sharp with the ball and without the ball in a match situation. For me, I’ve done everything I can physically to do that. Now, I’m just really excited to go and play.”
So Rodriguez will be fit to start Saints’ pre-season preparations, and should feature in the Europa League third qualifying round, with the first leg to be played on July 30, and the return leg a week later, just two days before the start of the Premier League season.
The England international was handed a new four-year contract last month, and Ronald Koeman was delighted the forward had committed his long-term future to Southampton:
“This is very good news for the club because there was some speculation about Jay and interest from other big clubs, so it is a compliment to the club that we have an agreement.”
Given that Rodriguez has yet to feature in any of Koeman’s matchday squads, it’s too early to ascertain just where the former Burnley forward stands in the Dutchman’s thoughts. Providing he can return to the form shown in his first two years at St Mary’s, there’s every chance Rodriguez should secure a place in the regular starting XI, though whether he can oust the more physical Pelle as the lone striker remains to be seen.
Like the 2013/14 season, Rodriguez’ versatility could see him reprise a role in the attacking midfield three slots, should Koeman keep faith with a 4-2-3-1 formation. Whilst such a scenario would prove frustrating for Fantasy managers, with Rodriguez remaining a reverse out of position prospect, his output two seasons ago stands testament to his capabilities from a withdrawn or flank position.
If he does oust Pelle up front, though, there’s no question Rodriguez would become a very viable option. With Mane and Pelle expected to come in around the 7.5-8.0 FPL bracket in, Rodriguez would certainly offer a cheaper option if he makes his mark under Koeman – a year on the sidelines is likely to trigger a price drop from 7.5 to perhaps as low as 6.5.
The Europa League remains a major caveat, however. Should Southampton make it to the group stages, the prospect of fatigue and rotation threatens to blight their Fantasy assets. Certainly, as we’ve seen in recent seasons, the likes of Tottenham, Everton, Swansea and Stoke have struggled for consistency when trying to juggle the two competitions.
Given that only Pelle and Mane managed more than five goals last season for the Saints, a fit-again Rodriguez is great news for the Saints. Pre-season should hopefully shed some light on Koeman’s intentions as he looks to build on last term’s seventh-placed finish.
