Spurs duo Harry Kane and Christian Eriksen arrive under analysis in our first members piece of the week. Watford’s budget frontman, Arsene Wenger’s dilemma up front and Leicester’s out-of-position Ghanaian are also on our radar after impressive weekend showings.
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Who should i get in for Hazard?
A. Mane
B. Eriksen
C. Silva
D. Ozil
Have Pelle, KDB & Sanchez-
A or C
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d
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D
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A
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New post on my blog:
http://twofreetransfers.com/longform/team-ratings-and-fixture-difficulty-shortening-the-longlist/
This week I'm trying to cut down the list of 619 FPL players to a squad of 15 for my Wildcard, today we go from 150 to 91 players 🙂-
Nice work!
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how can you use your domain inctead of default xxxx.wordpress.com?
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paid version?
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yeah, hosted by bluehost.
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Curious how do you get to those adjusted xG numbers, I have been reading using the same xG sites as you, do you have any better sites for expected goals?
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I too had the same question
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I think I spell it out pretty clearly in the opening paragraphs 😕
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At work, so just skimmed through, will read it in detail later. I found that article before, but not so sure where to get those value in order to produce your own table, that's why I am asking.
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"So my first step in looking at team’s ability is to adjust their expected goals for and against after ten games by weighting their performances against the average of the opponents they’ve faced so far. "
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Whats the formula?
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"weighting their performances against the average of the opponents they’ve faced so far."
(xGF)*(league average xGA)/(opponents xGA)
and
(xGA)*(league average xGF)/(opponents xGF)-
Oh! Got it!
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🙂 Sorry if it wasn't as clear as I assumed it to be. I sometimes have a tendency to assume everyone understands what I mean immediately 😛
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You sound like Cheesoid 😕
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We've clearly been spending too much time together at FIFFSA then!
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Balders , my Cazorla punt looking good now 😉
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Where will he play in your opinion - RW or CAM?
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I really dont know, but either way should be good news for him.
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Christmas is near anyway and Cazorla explosion is imminent
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He always seems to score 3-4 goals in 1 match near Christmas
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Good work mate!
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Cheers Jossy 🙂 Hopefully by Saturday morning I'll have a nice set of articles and good wildcard team.
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Which is better?
A- Ighalo + KDB + 4 points (have Yaya)
B- Mane' + Lukaku
C- Mane' + Bony-
Instantly i woul dsay B but could do with seeing the rest of your team
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Schmeicel Butland
Cedric FRancis Kolarov Azpi
HAZARD Sanchez MAhrez PAyet Yaya
Ighalo Pelle' Vardy
1 FT, 1.4 itb
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Need to see rest of team
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Schmeicel Butland
Cedric FRancis Kolarov Azpi
HAZARD Sanchez MAhrez PAyet Yaya
Ighalo Pelle' Vardy
1 FT, 1.4 itb
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C
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Morning.
Mata Sanchez KDB Maherz
Costa Pelle Vardy
A. Costa to Kane
B. Costa to Lukaku
C Mata to someone
D. Something else.
E Hold (if Costa fit)
Thanks-
A or B seems reasonable
B imo-
Thanks. B is longer term move i guess, just Kanes next fixture tempting!. Thanks again
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B
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Thanks
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Ship mata to Mane,Payet,Özil or if you dare,Barkley....
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butland
Bellerin/ Evans/ Richards
Payet/ Sanchez/ KDB/ Mahrez/
Vardy/ Pelle/ Martial
McCarthy/ Francis/ Surman/ Muniesa
2FT 5.6ITB
A) martial to Kane and Richards to vvd
B) surman to ozil and Richards to vvd and play aoa-
A out of those
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Thanks mate
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mind helping me above
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a
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I done the following...
Williams > VVD
Martial > Kane
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Still torn between Mane and Sterling.
Mane will probably play atleast 80min and Sterling will get subbed early due to ucl commitments but ManC attacking form is scary.
They could easily score 5-6 goals on saturday. Bony would be my choice along with KDB but my strikers are undroppable atm.-
I have both, but I prefer Mane.
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You got yourself a team!
Thanks FFSA-
Yes, team just announced today. Mostly not very active here.
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and if Pelle decideds to play 4-4-2 Sterling will probably play even more advanced than Bony. If Silva is fit Raheem is fielded out wide.
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Mane long term
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Its only short term for me. Next 2-3 gws.
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Lukaku or Kane ?
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Romelu
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out form.
Bony or Kane for short term.
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Im on the same decision. Kane for short term fun, Lukaku for stable (ha!) points. I really dont know!
Kane for fun, bit of risk
Lukaku, safe (ish)
Prob going Lukaku myself -
Going Lukaku
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Thoughts about my ffs cout community team:
Cech
Kolarov-Kompany-Sagna
Eriksen-Mane-Barkley-Sanchez
Kane-Pelle-Lukaku
This is so straight forward gw so its pretty hard to find diffrentials to beat scouts more than 16 points margin.
Any suggestions for 1 gw punt?-
Giroud perhaps?
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Get Sterling!!!
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Not with Silva imminent to return this weekend. Sterling might end playing on the left with Silva in the hole
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He was on the left the past week with Silva not playing 🙂 ..
Same for his hattrick.. just gets to push a lot higher with Bony playing instead of Aguero because Bony drops sooooooo deep all the time-
Man City played 4-2-2 with Bony as RS and Sterling as LS
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That's why they struddled to create!! They were two men short! 😆
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Nice. Scouts will probably go for kdb so Sterling is great option
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Three City defenders is a little bit of "eggs in the basket", although they do have a very good chance of a CS one goal and you've got three blanks.
Strikeforce and midfield looks awesome!!
Good luck mate -
Bellerin over Sagna, I dont trust Sagna with Zaba about
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Van Djik over Bellerin 😉
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Scouts will probably go for him. Need to find differentials
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Bellerin might play RW , so I would play safe there
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Cheers Eden
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Butland
Moreno Kolorov Nyom
Sanchez KDB Mahrez Payet
Martial Pelle Vardy
Sub : Mccarthy, Hazard, Francis, Targett
1FT
Which one is the best:
1) Hazard + Martial > Mane + Bony/Lukaku
2) Hazard + Francis > Mane + VVD-
1
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If i choose option 1..who should I bench? Mahrez i guess..
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have the same exact dilemma above
1 should pay off this week-
Option 1 mean Nyom will play & surely 2pts there instead of VVD (maybe cs + goal)
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Funes Mori to replace Jagielka?
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Got 2 FTs.. no worries with my team apart from Hazard and Fabianksi and Ighalo as a super sub for the next few weeks(so i can basically take some risks)!
FABIANKSI(What was i thinking!)
Bertrand Janmaat Dawson
Sanchez HAZARD Yaya Kdb Mane
Pelle Ighalo
Hennessey Vardy(Yup 🙂 ) Moreno Simpson
A) Play safe and go Hazard to Ozil and save the other transfer
B) Increase the risk factor with Sterling instead of Ozil?
C) Use Both 2 FTs to get Ozil/Sterling + DDG in -
Do we think Silva will start this week?
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Morning.
Everyone going mad about Lukaku or Kane questions? Can I join in please?-
What's mad is who they are considering removing for them.. Seen Pelle/Vardy and Ighalo all mentioned! That's my strikeforce and not considering letting go of one for now..
If i had to choose it's be Kane though.. Loads of cash floating around-
Kane for me. Ighalo out too I'm thinking
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Ighalo out Nick? What's your front 3 atm?
I am somehow also considering Pelle. It's Bournemouth this week..-
Yep. My front three is Pelle, Vardy and Ighalo. I'm wildcarding in two weeks and playing AOA this week.
My other option is do Azpi (LIV) -> Kolarov (NOR), but I can actually see a Chelsea CS
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Agree. I just bought ighalo. I think people underestimate him because of his price tag
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I think we all underestimate Ighalo cause Watford just don't score and his involvement has been really high. 100% when on the pitch still if I'm right? That's a bit abnormal.
I am considering letting Martial go, even though he has fixtures, he doesn't look like his loves to take those shots and playing on the wings just won't help his cause.-
Ighalo has Manu after West Ham....I will be punting on Fletcher then 😉
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Lukaku. Similar form, better fixtures. Focal point of his teams attack
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I do think Spurs are in a better form than Everton are. 3 against Chelsea, 4 against City and 5 against Bournemouth. You don't get to see that very often.
Stats were very similar until last week though.-
True. Spurs maybe are, Kane isnt.
Lukaku has 3 goals and 1 assist in last 5 games, those games were swa wba LIV MUN ars .
Thats some return from a horrible fixture list
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How long is Walcott out for?
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No idea yet. Could be fine.
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Myhill
Bellerin Kolorov Dawson
Sanchez KDB Mahrez Payet
Martial Pelle Vardy
McCarthy, Albrighton, Francis, Richards
2FT 4.8m
Best option here?
A) Dawson -> van Dijk
B) Albrighton & Martial -> Ozil & Ighalo
C) Martial -> Giroud -
Those Thinking of getting Kane..after the Villa fixture do you think it will be easy for him to score against Arsenal, West Ham, Chelsea, West Brom?
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So much this
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West Ham home is a good fixture, as is Chelsea (H) considering their form and Kane's history in that fixture. Kane got 13 points away at WBrom last season and they don't often keep clean sheets at home.
Anything can happen in a derby-
True..and I am usually the one who takes risk..but with Kane this season..I just need to see him perform first..scoring against Bournemouth doesn't add to much for me.
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Fair enough. But you are a member, look at his stats 😉
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Yup will have a look
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I think yes.
West Ham are away from home and I won't bet on them to keep a clean sheet against Spurs at WHL, same for Chelsea. Arsenal away might be a problem. Adding Newcastle home and Villa home to the list, the fixtures are pretty good for goals.-
After the West Brom game the fixtures are decent..so I will use these 5 fixtures to assess him
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Credits - Doosra
TOT:AVL 380 ars-232 WHM 168 CHE -44 wba 149-
Plus anything can happen against Arsenal , form out the window in a derby as big as the NL derby
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Spurs have last time won at Arsenal 2010.
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I always tell this to Doos but to no avail, I don't see how you can possibly evaluate how a fixture is through a number.
Chelsea at home, at the moment, is a great fixture for any attacking player, imo.-
Yes , I know
These numbers are positive for Spurs , not negative 😕-
Doosra is accurate by his numbers - Spurs have easy match ups
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I know they are positive. I'm just talking about using them in general. They don't paint the whole picture, Imo.
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I think Nick means that the Chelsea game is a lot favourable for attacking returns for Kane than Doosra thinks it is.
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Pretty much, yeah.
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North London Derby, who knows
West ham, last v=cleanie mid Sept
Chelsea, 2 clean sheets all season
WBA, a worry.
If i was getting him looks ok to me.-
hmm true!
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Current strike force is Pelle, Vardy, Costa.. Have a FT.. Is it worth getting Costa out for Lukaku or Kane? Is Costa a doubt through injury?
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It is worth as even if Costa is fit...he's going up against Skrtle..both of them could end up with a Red..
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Think you're right.. Any thoughts on Kane or Lukaku? Think I'm tempted by Lukaku!
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Lukaku or Bony/Pelle for me...I will only bring in Kane if he shows some sort of form in the next 5 fixtures..
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I would rid of him even if he is not injured.
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Im on the same choice, currently thinking Lukaku as its 'safer', Kane seems more fun
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How is Lukaku safer than Kane?
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For starters he has had returns (Goal/Assist) from 4 games, while Kane has had only from 2 games. One of which was Bournemouth.
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Lukaku is very sporadic though, he often scores against stronger sides but fails against better sides
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Poor* sorry
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I just made this decisions over the last three days and now youve got me thinking again 😀
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He'll probably prove me wrong, but when I watch Lukaku he hardly inspires me with confidence 😀
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safer is maybe the wrong word, that why i speech marked it. Seems the fixtures are better so you could expect more? I really dont know, just typing about Kane above makes me torn between the 2
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I am looking at getting Kane in this week, hadn't even considered Lukaku. He's just too consistent.
Kane's stats have been good all season and his hat trick gives him a confidence boost he has been lacking
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Costa -> Kane is a no brainer for me
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will Aguero drop to 13.0 before he returns?
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I'm hoping so.
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Not at this pace
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Going by RVP last season, no. The big prices tend to stay big.
#illuminati-
Illuminati confirmed.
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Probably.
Just looked about fixtures and I think there is no rush to get him back immediately after he returns.
GW16 looks like a first gw when I would be captaining him.-
Famous last words. As soon as he's ready to play he's in for me.
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Been really struggling with whether to get in mane for a hit or not.
I've decided I can't. As I'd have to swap Ayew out, who has Norwich and Bournemouth after this week.
My only other option is Mahrez. But he represent great value having got him at 5.7m
Plus I have Pelle- even though he's gone off the boil, surely will get some attacking returns.
What's people's thought with this?
My team is
DDG. McCarthy.
Williams. Prodl. Moreno. Kolv. Bellerin.
Sanchez. Mahrez. Ayew. Payet. KDB.
Pelle. Ighalo. Vardy.-
Looks solid to me
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Not bad.
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Good team - you can't have them all.
I'm worried that I don't have Mane and Kane. Can see high scores from both this week.
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After another poor Metrsacker performance, Gabriel to start?
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Maybe. But not every game til your second WC.
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Morning GB.
Your thoughts on Kane vs Lukaku?-
Morning 🙂
No idea, sorry! Haven't even looked at their stats because I've had Haz to deal with!
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We've already seen that Wenger has lessened rotation for a more settled side for PL games, just have a feeling that will include Gabriel.
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GB! How'd the whole prank go? 😀
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I wasn't there unfortunately but she was pissed. The big reveal is at midnight tonight when the £££ comes in.
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Oh wow! haha good luck with it, let us know how it goes 🙂
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Myhill
Bellerin Kolorov Dawson
Sanchez KDB Mahrez Payet
Martial Pelle Vardy
McCarthy, Albrighton, Francis, Richards
2FT / 4.8m
Best option here?
A) Dawson -> van Dijk
B) Albrighton & Martial -> Ozil & Ighalo
C) Martial -> Giroud-
B appeals.
A is insulting and C is sideways-ish.-
Why is A insulting? B does leave a benching dilemma, and C is slightly sideways but Martial is currently reverse OOP with Giroud nailed on in Walcott's absence.
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A is insulting - you never remove WBA defenders. 😡
Now is the time for 352 so forget the bench - in recent weeks the bench has been needed.-
That is the most stupid fpl statement I have ever heard.
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Are you new to the game....and EPL?
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WBA fixtures take a bad turn now. I've had both Myhill and Dawson which has worked well in recent weeks but now has to be the time to drop at least one of them..
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No it isn't. This is the time to stay strong. You can't teach this - you are just born with it.
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WBA are up against one of the most in form attacks in the league next GW, and fixtures only get harder afterwards. I have 2FT with Myhill already as mentioned, so it seems reckless not to hop over to Soton for example who are defensively strong with fixtures on their side. Still, I can't tell if you're just messing around on this.
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I've just noticed you're a WBA fan. Think this might explain it.
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Nope - I'm a Leeds fan.
I give up on folk who can't see the light. I tried to save you...but I failed.-
Don't worry. I'll bookmark this page when the GW starts so at least one of us can be proved right.
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Good good - I'll be waiting.
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I'll be waiting to. 🙂
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🙂
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Too* Samsung you are better than that...
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This.
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A is insulting? Sorry, but with these fixtures I don't see WBA keeping many clean sheets, plus he has Myhill so doubling on WBA's defence is a suicidal decision. I have the same problem and I'm getting rid of Dawson. Tinker won't play defensively against WBA, there will be goals.
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No no and no.
Never ever get rid of WBA defenders. They will keep cs against anybody. Trust me on this.-
Like they did against Everton, Chelsea, Crystal Palace and Man City? Their fixtures are full of team like these above.
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Like how they kept 16 cs last season and have built a decent record this. If you study who they kept cs against, you'll see a variety of teams of various abilities.
Trust the force,Luke.-
Oh hi there.
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Surely you expect Soton/City/United to pick up more clean sheets in their upcoming fixtures though?
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Mane and VVD
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Reply fail to above
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Just picked up on it, thanks!
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Hopefully Darmian gets his 5th booking tonight so he will be flagged and need more transfers for a drop.
Desperate times.-
He will probably drop either way I'd say
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As in, a red flag increasing his threshold but he will get way more trannies out
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I bought him for 5.6 and SP is 5.7 so will his price drop affect on me?
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wont
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Can I have a quick RMT?
Myhill
Darmian - Bellerin - Williams
Sanchez - KdB - Mahrez - Mane
Martial - Costa - Vardy
McCarthy - Westwood - Muniesa* - Targett
2.2 in the bank, 1 FT
- Obviously, the defence looks shakey, this week though, I am resisting any transfers for the defence cause the attacking fixtures look plum and Martial is hardly inspiring.
- It does give me some time to assess United, Spurs and Saints backline for another week.
What are your thoughts? Martial out? Or just stick him in and fix the defence?-
Wait on Costa news first.
Martial and Costa to Lukaku and Kane? Even for -4 think it could pay off-
It could, I think Costa should be okay though.
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Hi AK,
Costa looks like he has picked up an injury and I would swap him for Kane. Martian could be Igloo.
Good luck! 🙂-
Hi Jaf, funny thing is I just got rid of Igloo for Vardy last week. 😆
If you had to pick one striker out of the lot, which one would it be? You fancy Kane over Lukaku?-
Kane is the one I fear who will hurt me. In fairness though, Lukaku has picked up this season and I am reasonably happy with him for now.
My ideal front 3 right now would be Vardy, Kane and Pelle.
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Martial to someone half decent.
Lukaku, Bony, Pelle..
Unless Costa confirmed out, then him.-
Cheers EF. Pelle is someone I am very keenly looking at. Feels like a sneaky transfer with everyone jumping on Lukakus and Kanes.. 😉
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Aye, I'm looking at Pelle myself while others are thinking of getting rid.
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Same problem as me. I already did Martial -> Bony but you have defensive issues as well.
Wait till Friday for news.-
I think Mourinho badly needs Costa upfront, he is the only one with Willian who seems willing to win.
Don't think he will reveal a lot on Friday going by his comments on Costa's niggles last season.
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Whats the word on Costa? Already shipped Martial for Bony so will need to replace him with a hit.
Gru, Lukaku and Kane the candidates. Thinking Lukaku.-
You'll be convinced of Kane's appeal 😀
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Don't remind me.
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Think he had a chest injury and was taken to the hospital. Punched himself in aggression apparently.
Think he should be okay for the weekend.-
Lets hope so.
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I remember when Martial rose thrice in a week 😀 And then LVG decided Rooney is his striker. Thankfully had other concerns and had to resist Martial
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He'd be class uptop. Ugh.
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I've transferred for Kane purely because LVG is playing him wide
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I've gone Bony.
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Just
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Damn phone, sorry
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Does darmain to jones seem a safe transfer to get .4m in the bank?
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If Darmian gets his 5th yc tonight I'm forced to play Williams which is pretty much 0-1 points.
In that case is it wise to bring VVD in for him for a hit? I would like to keep Darmian cos I'm expecting him to play most of the United games.-
Just seen how kind of 'cheap' Ozil is!
A
Sanchez Mata KDB Maherez WESTWOOD
KANE Pelle Vardy
B
Sanchez Mata KDB Maherez OZIL
LUKAKU Pelle Vardy
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B is really tempting me! Benching dilemmas for sure but shifting Maherez to 5th mid, while keeping Vardy, is kind of ok by me. -
Sorry, i would probably hold.
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Get VVD for the next game... will probably score a hat trick!
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Epic Fail, love the grav.
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The feeling is mutual young blood.
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Erm...where's Selma? 😡
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