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Wisdom of the Crowd – Gameweek 28

Each week we are reviewing the aggregated predictions on Superbru’s Premier League Predictor game, using the collective Wisdom of the Crowd predictions to guide our fantasy football thinking.

Please join the FFS league here and add your own predictions to the data – the more there are, the more accurate the crowd should be (in theory).

And don’t forget there is £20,000 on offer every week if you get a full house of predictions.

GAMEWEEK 27 REVIEW

Newcastle caused the biggest shock of the round, beating Manchester United at St James’ Park. This was predicted by just 3% of ‘the crowd’.  Huddersfield thrashed Bournemouth, which also raised some eyebrows, but most other results were fairly predictable.

Here are the Gameweek 27 results in descending order of predictability:

Quite remarkably, The Capello Index has won back to back yellow caps – awarded to the best player in the pool – and is storming up the leaderboard as a result.

It was a good week for Mr Crowd Wisdom – using the aggregated predictions of the crowd – who climbed another two places up to 20th in the FFS pool, out of over 460 people.

The aggregated predictions of the community are making better predictions than most individual players in the game, suggesting that there is credibility in the Wisdom of the Crowd concept.

The crowd’s average picks have now taken the Crowd Wisdom user into the top 4% on the global leaderboard!

GAMEWEEK 28 PREVIEW

Here is the Expected Goals chart for each fixture in GW28:

And here is the ranking of teams in order of Expected Goals Scored and Conceded:

With Manchester City away at Arsenal, it’s Liverpool at the top of the Predicted Goals chart, ahead of Tottenham, the Sky Blues and Leicester.  Mohamed Salah is the clear leader in the FFScout captain’s poll, and for good reason according to the crowd’s predictions.

Clean sheets look like they will be hard to come by this weekend, but Leicester are predicted to keep things tight at home to Stoke.

Liverpool and Tottenham are worth considering in the premium bracket, whilst Burnley, West Brom, Bournemouth and Swansea could provide more budget-friendly returns.

Here are the aggregated predictions that we’ll enter for Mr Crowd Wisdom this week.

Is there anything that catches your eye in these predictions?

Good luck!

10 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Waynoo
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    im keeping Kun

  2. Reedy
    • 13 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Thanks for this

  3. money face bandwagon
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    play martial or azpi?

    1. Midlands Saint73
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      I always go for attacker over a defender. Even in the 89th minute and attacker can get you some returns but a 2nd minute goal makes for a miserable 90 minutes to follow for 99% of defenders.

  4. Scotch Jock
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    What catches my eye is "1-1"!

    1. Woy of the Wovers
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      That's just the stuff you get when you average lots of 0-1,1-0,2-1,1-2 predictions.

      Wisdom of the crowds studies are good at estimating large or difficult to guess numbers - like smarties in a large bowl - but next to useless for predicting high variance things like the score in Bournemouth v WBA

  5. TheBrat
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Losing my marbles over something that probably won't matter much in the end......help required anyway!

    Bench one

    Maguire (STO)
    Alonso (mun)
    Niasse (wat)
    Mee (SOT)
    Promise I won't ask again

    1. FPL Xylophone
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      Alonso

  6. KGFC
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 2 months ago

    Play 1:

    1. Arnatovic (vs pool)
    2. Deulofeu (vs everton)
    3. Wilson (vs newcastle)

    1. FPL Husaria
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 2 months ago

      3