Moving Target

Can Fabianski retain FPL value at West Ham?

Lukasz Fabianski has joined West Ham after being relegated with Swansea City – and he is expected to retain his value as a Fantasy Premier League asset next season.

The Polish goalkeeper has been a renowned producer of saves for several years, making him a good signing for Manuel Pellegrini at the London Stadium.

We’ve had a look at the underlying statistics behind Fabianski’s success in 2017/18, as well as the shortcomings at West Ham, to weigh up whether he should be on our radar for Gameweek 1.

THE HISTORY

Last season was the latest in a long line of campaigns where Fabianski used his huge save-count and a handful of clean sheets to claw his way up the FPL charts. In the end only David De Gea (172) and Ederson (158) accrued more points than Fabianski. His score of 157 was his best ever recorded in four years at Swansea.

That extended spell was characterised by his ability to stack up large numbers of saves. In fact, in every single campaign in south Wales Fabianski finished in the top three for that statistic:

  • 2014/15: 140 (ranked 1st)
  • 2015/16: 117 (ranked 2nd)
  • 2016/17: 118 (ranked 3rd)
  • 2017/18: 142 (ranked 2nd)

Breaking his most recent year down into more detail, Fabianski’s importance to Swansea becomes even more clear. While Jack Butland recorded eight more saves overall at Stoke, the Swans’ shot stopper made more than anyone else when facing shots in the box (93). Furthermore, of the 142 saves made, 30 of those were caught and held. No goalkeeper did so more often than Fabianski.

His save percentage of 72.1 was the fifth best in the division while only David De Gea (+11.70) and Nick Pope (+9.30) boasted better xG Prevented (+4.10). Success in those departments led to him picking up 34 additional points for saves in 2017/18, accounting for 21.65% of his 157 points. 15 more points were picked up from the stopping of three penalties, again more than anyone else.

The importance of saves to Fabianski’s success is best demonstrated by the fact that his clean sheet potential doesn’t always match what is expected of high-performing goalkeepers. The average number of shut-outs recorded by the top-six FPL shot-stoppers in 2017/18 was 12.33 while Fabianski sat below that with nine. Nobody else in the top six registered fewer. However, it was still more than enough to supplement his strength in other areas.

As for bonus points, again Fabianski never dominates but is a solid performer. He was top for Baseline Bonus Points System with a score of 672 (50 more than Butland) this season, and only England internationals Jordan Pickford and Nick Pope made more recoveries (403 and 387) than the former Arsenal man (368). But such numbers didn’t always convert into points proper. Four goalkeepers finished the campaign with more bonus points than Fabianski, his score of 14 good enough only for fifth place.

Obviously the statistics recorded by goalkeepers are influenced by the team they are playing in, and Swansea was the perfect club to get the best out of Fabianski from a Fantasy perspective. In 2017/18 they ranked 19th for shots on target conceded with 190 and were 18th for expected goals conceded too (59), giving him plenty to do. So do West Ham offer the same type of potential for saves and clean sheets?

THE PROSPECTS

The short answer to this question is “overwhelmingly yes.” In fact, the underlying statistics of West Ham’s defence could even suggest that Fabianski may prove to be a better Fantasy asset than he was at Swansea next season.

That’s because the Hammers ranked lower than Swansea both for total shots allowed and goals conceded in 2017/18. Only Burnley (570) and Stoke City (579) obliged their opponents more times than West Ham (563), while their shots on target conceded count (187) was similar to Swansea’s 190. Crucially, the London side’s expected goals conceded figure was just 56.10, and yet they were still breached on 68 occasions, just under 12 more times than they should have been. While that could lead to Fabianski keeping clean sheets less often, the data recorded at Swansea last season do suggest he will improve them as a side.

The change of manager at West Ham may, of course, have an impact on how vulnerable they are the back, of course. It remains to be seen whether or not new centre-back Issa Diop will make a difference too. We may find in the early weeks of 2018/19 that the Hammers allow considerably fewer shots on goal than they did previously.

If that’s the case then, of course, Fabianski’s price will play a part in whether or not we should be considering him for our sides. His value in recent years has stemmed from a £4.5m starting price and if he begins the new campaign in the same bracket then he will be more a attractive proposition than if he experiences a hike to £5.0m.

741 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Better off with a pin and a…
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    4 months, 23 days ago

    I've not seen much discussion on here about the price changes (McDonalds game) at the end of round 3 - does anyone remember how much impact these had before?

    1. trinzoo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      4 months, 23 days ago

      Quite sure it will be the same as UCL (McDonalds too), so changes of up to 0.3.

      1. Better off with a pin and a…
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        4 months, 23 days ago

        Thanks. Just trying to decide when to wildcard and wondering how much of a factor this will be.

  2. KANE-O-MANIA
    • 4 Years
    4 months, 23 days ago

    Is it worth changing captaincy from costa to coutinho??

    1. Christina.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 months, 23 days ago

      do you have any japanese players?

      1. KANE-O-MANIA
        • 4 Years
        4 months, 23 days ago

        Inui

  3. LSP
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    4 months, 23 days ago

    Thoughts on my provisional round 3 WC team? Quite top heavy so my defence may be a tad weak. Also, my 3 striker will play on the first day..

    Ronaldo - Costa - Salah
    Isco - J.Rod - Modric - Cheryshev - Sassi
    Pavard - Hummels - Guerreiro - Gabr - Mojica
    Elshenawy - Uzoho

    1. GoonerByron
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 months, 23 days ago

      Way too many playing on the first day.

      4 captain options Day 1, Modric maybe day 2 and then that's it.. Would want better captain options for the other days.

    2. Christina.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 months, 23 days ago

      will modric play?

      where are the differentials?

      Lose isco & hummels.

      Not enough (c)'s...

  4. GoonerByron
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    4 months, 23 days ago

    In a game with limited transfers (The Sun), is it worth keeping Messi for the Nigeria game? Or should I get rid now for someone with more games who will also go through (Lukaku/Kane?)?

    1. Kolarov Fpl Legend
      • 4 Years
      4 months, 23 days ago

      So basically, Lukaku/Kane with double get vs Messi 1 game? If that's the question, you shouldn't even be asking it.

      1. Kolarov Fpl Legend
        • 4 Years
        4 months, 23 days ago

        *double get
        Stupid auto correct

        1. Kolarov Fpl Legend
          • 4 Years
          4 months, 23 days ago

          Lol * double gw

      2. GoonerByron
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        4 months, 23 days ago

        It also uses a transfer and potentially misses out on a Messi haul but think you're right, he has to go 🙂

  5. diesel001
    • 2 Years
    4 months, 23 days ago

    If you are wildcarding after Round 2 you need to consider the potential 1st knockout round line up and price rises.

  6. Ojpsan1
    • 1 Year
    4 months, 23 days ago

    Should I sub out cueva (2p) for Granqvist? Or is it too risky?

    1. Christina.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 months, 23 days ago

      extremely risky.

    2. Kolarov Fpl Legend
      • 4 Years
      4 months, 23 days ago

      Risky? Yeah, it's too much of a risk loosing 2 points. Not to mention, Granqvist is on penalties.

    3. Siva Mohan
      • 6 Years
      4 months, 23 days ago

      Germany vs Granqvist

      bit risky.. worth the 90 mins fun

    4. Better off with a pin and a…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      4 months, 23 days ago

      Do you have the option of then replacing Granqvist if it all goes wrong? In any case, has to be worth a punt, surely. It only takes a penalty...

    5. Ojpsan1
      • 1 Year
      4 months, 23 days ago

      Have no other sub after that, since Carlos Sanchez got a one match ban. Think ill just go for it, thanks guys.

  7. Christina.
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    4 months, 23 days ago

    Assuming we are able to do our trsfrs for knock outs as soon as Rd 3 starts, plus we have 5m extra...why are people bothered with price hikes?

    1. Siva Mohan
      • 6 Years
      4 months, 23 days ago

      we need something to bother..

    2. trinzoo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      4 months, 23 days ago

      How do you know when we will be able to do transfers for GW4?

      1. Siva Mohan
        • 6 Years
        4 months, 23 days ago

        Game Rules?

        1. trinzoo
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          4 months, 23 days ago

          Hmm, right! Make's it much easier!

  8. ZoumasBloomers
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 1 Year
    4 months, 23 days ago

    Hamed, Isco, Griezman - captaincy struggles so far this round

    1. Siva Mohan
      • 6 Years
      4 months, 23 days ago

      my armband is with Suarez.. he isn't letting it go. Lukaku may wrestle from him.

      1. Lone_Wolf
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        4 months, 23 days ago

        Same here friend. I also have Lewandowski for the armband .

  9. Siva Mohan
    • 6 Years
    4 months, 23 days ago

    Dortmund are keen to sign Chelsea striker Álvaro Morata, but the Bundesliga club could be put off by the 25-year-old's £45m fee. (Source: BILD)

    1. Jᴀʀᴠɪsʜ
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 23 days ago

      You missed the decimal point out surely

      1. Siva Mohan
        • 6 Years
        4 months, 23 days ago

        🙂

  10. jimmy.floyd
    • 2 Years
    4 months, 23 days ago

    Granqvist or Plattenhardt for gw3?

    1. IrishRed
      • 2 Years
      4 months, 23 days ago

      Surely Hector will be back from illness by GW3?

      1. Siva Mohan
        • 6 Years
        4 months, 23 days ago

        I think he is already back.. reports on web

  11. Unai Emery
    • 4 Years
    4 months, 23 days ago

    Eriksen(c) with 7 points. Twist for Coutinho,Lukaku, Trippier ?

  12. IrishRed
    • 2 Years
    4 months, 23 days ago

    Best midfielder at 4.5, 5.0 and 5.5 for GW3?
    Currently have Inui, Sassi and Cheryshev

  13. RECKLESS
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    4 months, 23 days ago

    Any update on what Brazil vs Costa rica lineup will be? Any leaks?

    1. diesel001
      • 2 Years
      4 months, 23 days ago

      Brazil will be the same lineup except for Danilo who is injured

  14. Eden Wizard
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    4 months, 23 days ago

    Can see Trippier & Rose starting Sunday then Trent & Young getting Thursday if we win and are through

  15. GOONER
    • 6 Years
    4 months, 23 days ago

    Captain Marcelo or Paulinho?