Pre-Season

Experienced Sokratis can bolster Arsenal defence

Arsenal completed their third signing of the summer transfer window last week with the capture of centre-half Sokratis Papastathopoulos from Borussia Dortmund for an undisclosed fee.

The experienced defender has penned what the Gunners say is a “long-term contract” with the club and is new manager Unai Emery’s second defensive signing who is aged 30 or above, after veteran full-back Stephan Lichtsteiner joined the north London side in June.

Sokratis, who is commonly referred to by his forename, has over a decade of first-team experience and joins Arsenal after seven seasons in the Bundesliga with Werder Bremen and then Dortmund.

Arsenal conceded more goals in 2017/18 (51) than in any season since the formation of the Premier League and their new manager is evidently prioritising their backline as he shakes up the squad: goalkeeper Bernd Leno, along with Lichtsteiner, has also been recruited over the summer.

READ MORE: Bernd Leno – Scout Report

Sokratis has been priced up at £5.5m in Fantasy Premier League and costs as much as his new defensive colleagues, Shkodran Mustafi, Laurent Koscielny, Nacho Monreal and Hector Bellerin.

With Koscielny sidelined by an Achilles injury and possibly out until 2019, Sokratis seems certain to be one of Emery’s first-choice picks at centre-back.

Upon signing for the Gunners, the 30-year-old Greek international said:

I’m a normal defender who likes to defend. I like that my team doesn’t concede goals and I like the zero in the defence, of course. I will do everything to help achieve these goals.

I think that a defender first has to defend, to protect the goal, and then after if he can help in front a little bit for the game, then it’s good. But first of all, he has to defend.

Defensive duties, then, are the priority for the stopper that former coach Thomas Tuchel says is “a little bit obsessed with defending”. Having played five seasons with Dortmund, however, Sokratis will be suited to the dynamic, free-flowing brand of football favoured by the Gunners and will indeed be reunited with former BVB team-mates Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang.

The History

Sokratis began his senior career in his native Greece with AEK Athens, scoring on his first-team debut in a 3-0 Greek Cup win over PAS Giannina in October 2005. Then aged just 17, Sokratis gained further experience with a loan spell at second-tier club Niki Volos, who he appeared for 11 times in the league at the back end of the 2005/06 season.

After returning to his parent club, Sokratis went on to make 38 league appearances for AEK over two seasons, scoring on one occasion. The young stopper also had his first experience of UEFA Champions League football and was part of the AEK side that beat Milan – who then had Clarence Seedorf, Andrea Pirlo, Kaka and Filippo Inzaghi among their ranks – 1-0 in November 2006.

Two seasons and 51 Serie A appearances with Genoa followed before Milan snapped up Sokratis in 2010, although the-then 22-year-old centre-back watched most of the season from the bench as the Rossoneri won their 18th Serie A title.

Sokratis departed for Werder Bremen on a season-long loan deal after just five league appearances for the Italian giants and was to make his move to Germany permanent the following year after an impressive debut Bundesliga campaign.

Jurgen Klopp saw enough in those 59 league appearances for Bremen to persuade Sokratis to join Dortmund in May 2013 – the same summer that Mkhitaryan and Aubameyang signed for the German side.

Sokratis was to soon displace long-serving centre-back Neven Subotic in the Dortmund team and went on to make 130 Bundesliga appearances under Klopp, Tuchel, Peter Bosz and Peter Stoger across five seasons.

The Greek centre-back played either Champions League or Europa League football in each of his five years with the German club and won the DFB-Pokal (the German domestic cup) in 2016/17.

Capped 79 times by his country at the time of writing, Sokratis featured at Euro 2012 and the 2014 World Cup for Greece.

The Prospects

With Koscielny a long-term absentee, Per Mertesacker retiring and Monreal possibly reverting to left-back (given that Emery is fond of a 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3), Arsenal looked short of experience at the heart of the defence.

Sokratis’ capture, therefore, looks a sage move by the Gunners, particular with Mustafi struggling for form towards the end of last season and Calum Chambers, Rob Holding and Konstantinos Mavropanos still somewhat green.

Arsenal conceded 70 big chances last season, by far the worst total of the “Big Six” clubs and indeed twice as many as Manchester City allowed. No Premier League team made more errors (15) that led to goals, either.

The Gunners also conceded more shots on target (146), headed chances (83) and attempts from set pieces (122) than any of last season’s top six sides and, while their underlying defensive statistics are by no means the worst in the league, require improvement if Fantasy managers are to invest a sizeable chunk of their defensive budget in a £5.5m-rated asset.

Arsenal’s rate of headed chances conceded was particularly poor – the eighth-worst in the division – but Sokratis could help address that weakness: the Greek centre-back’s aerial duel success rate of 67.5% was better than all of his new team-mates (Mustafi, Koscielny and Monreal won 62.4%, 56.6% and 50% of their headers respectively).

Sokratis’ tackle success rate of 72.3% was also better than all other Arsenal centre-backs bar Koscielny (75.4%).

It should be noted that Sokratis’ statistics also came in a tumultuous season for Dortmund, who conceded more Bundesliga goals (47) than they have managed in a decade. Despite this, the German giants still recorded 12 clean sheets in their 34 league matches – just one fewer than Arsenal managed in 38 fixtures.

Sokratis’ strength in the air extends to attacking set plays, too. Though he hasn’t scored more than two goals in a single campaign in his career, Sokratis has scored at least one league goal in each of his seven seasons in the Bundesliga (the Greek international scored on two occasions in both 2016/17 and 2017/18). A total of 15 attempts on goal last season – seven of which, curiously, were from outside the box – was more than Mustafi (13) and Koscielny (nine) managed, but fewer than Monreal (22).

With no club scoring more goals from set plays than Arsenal last season (16), Fantasy managers can expert Sokratis to be in the thick of the action in 2018/19.

Should Arsenal improve their defensive record and up their clean sheet count, then Sokratis’ underlying passing statistics means he should fare well on the Bonus Points System. A repeat of his pass success rate of 86.9% for Dortmund last season, while inferior to the rates recorded by Monreal (89.5%) and Koscielny (89%), would give Sokratis an extra four BPS points per match.

One downside to the Greek defender’s game is his ability to accumulate cards: Sokratis amassed 45 cautions and three red cards in 189 Bundesliga appearances.

If Emery is to abandon the three-man defensive system favoured by Arsene Wenger towards the end of the latter’s tenure, then Arsenal’s wing-backs may not be as attractive a Fantasy proposition as before.

Sokratis could, therefore, be a viable candidate for our squads from Gameweek 3 onwards. After the Gunners open their season with fixtures against Manchester City and Chelsea, they then face a run of matches (WHU, cdf, new, EVE, WAT, ful, LEI, cry) that would seem ideal for investment at both ends of the pitch. How steely Arsenal’s defence looks in those two tough opening tests in August could determine whether Sokratis plays a part in many Fantasy managers’ squads.

READ MORE: Our 2017/18 season analysis of Arsenal

World Cup Data

We’re delighted to offer World Cup data as an early addition to our regular season offering to help those playing Fantasy games over the summer.

We’ve secured Opta data, not only for the tournament itself, but also from the Qualifying Rounds for Europe and South America and for international friendlies involving the participating nations. This includes all the matches played right up to the tournament kick-off.

Just to stress, this World Cup offering comes packaged with the regular Fantasy Football Scout membership.

Check out this new trailer detailing the World Cup content below…

McDonald’s FIFA World Cup Fantasy

Join our McDonald’s FIFA World Cup Fantasy league ‘FantasyFootballScout’ using the code: HEWJPVYR

Fantasy iTeam

Fantasy Football Scout is supporting Fantasy iTeam, a free World Cup game available on a number of mobile devices, including iPhone, iPad, iPodTouch and Android. We have an official Fantasy Football Scout League open to UK users only, with a £1000 of Amazon vouchers to give out, split between the top three performers. There’s also the small matter of £10k worth of prizes available in the main competitions: Overall World Championship and Manager of the Gameround.

Click here for details and here to sign up.

Our League name is Fantasy Football Scout and the pin is 1887.

Please note, users must be over 18 and based in the UK to join our league.

1,066 Comments Post a Comment
  1. stosxri
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Kompany or Toby??

    1. OldBenKenobi
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Kompany - goal threat

      1. OldBenKenobi
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        Wait for team news first tho

  2. Zilla
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Arsenal sign Lucas Torreira.

    1. quayle99
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      only became aware of him during the world cup but he was impressive. Position they need filling too.

  3. Snevitz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    I'm predicting an average of 61 points a week which doesn't seem too bad.
    Any thoughts on the following....

    Ederson (4.4)
    Alonso (5), Roberts (5), Coleman (4)
    Salah (8x2), Sane (5), Silva (4.6), Sigurdsson (4.3)
    Tosun (4.3), Zaha (4.3), Wood (4.1)

    (£4m Keeper, Cairney, Cedric, £4m defender)

    Keeper - Ederson is cheaper and more nailed on than most city defenders, nearly had the same points as DDG last season and has excellent opening fixtures after Arsenal in week 1. He should play every week so I don't want to waste any extra money on my sub.

    Defence - Alonso and Roberts are two of the three defenders with the highest expected ppg, they offer excellent value for their price tags if they live up to 5ppg. Everton have great opening fixtures and hopefully Coleman will be back to his best after his nasty leg break. Cedric looks under-priced, especially if he starts as wing back and will be decent cover.

    Midfield - Salah is a must due to an easy captain every week, there is currently nothing to suggest that he won't be able to maintain last year's performance. City are so attacking with good fixtures that I'm keeping my fingers crossed that Silva and Sane start the first few, then I will look to acquire KDB once he's back properly. I'm hoping Sigurdsson will have more freedom with Rooney gone and may even be on penalties.

    Attack - Premium strikers are very expensive for ppg when they are not being captained. I'd rather spend the money in def and mid, especially when the top three sides for early attacking fixtures happen to be Everton, Palace and Burnley and they all have mid-price strikers who started to hit form at the end of last season.

    1. Deulofail
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Looks good. I'd personally look to upgrade one forward to Firmino, probably. E.g. downgrading Siggy to Deulofeuuuuuu and Ederson to Karius (or Sane for Mahrez). Nice to see a well though-out team, though. I did something similar recently, but can't find the link.

      1. Snevitz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        Thanks, Firmino is definitely the stand out option up top out of the more expensive strikers and I have played around with fitting him in. Ryan+Begovic rotating in goal and Sane to Mkhi was my preferred root but obviously it's early days for planning.

        1. Eden Wizard
          • 5 Years
          5 years, 9 months ago

          Ryan Bego rotation is nice, thanks!

    2. Klopp For The Kopps 😆
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      It's not about PPG, it's about having the right players at the right time, so your point about not having premium strikers due to overall ppg is absurd, cuz Firm may start with 8 ppg first 5 games, then it'll be prolly Aguero for next few then Auba and so on...
      So premium striker slot is pretty important IMO

      1. Deulofail
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        Not easy to predict though is it? If you get it wrong, you've wasted millions. Whereas in Snevitz' system, he loses a lot less and need to make fewer kneejerk transfers. Swings and roundabouts innit

        1. Klopp For The Kopps 😆
          • 8 Years
          5 years, 9 months ago

          It's easier to predict when a Premium player gets going than others, circumstances decide when to get whom, like getting Aguero when Jesus was injured did wonders

      2. Deulofail
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        8 PPG isn't THAT much when you're not captaining someone, because the combination of players you own might be geting 3 ppg aside from that premium player, because you spunked all your cash. E.g. 8+3+2 vs 5+5+4. Simplified, but just demonstratiing the point that the OP is making. 🙂

        1. Klopp For The Kopps 😆
          • 8 Years
          5 years, 9 months ago

          And I'm not inclined on captaining Salah every week so I need another Premium striker option like Auba/Kun/Lukaku for Captaincy

          1. Deulofail
            • 8 Years
            5 years, 9 months ago

            That's cool, but that's for your team, not his 🙂 I think this is a valid strategy if he's happy to captain Salah every week

        2. Brosstan
          • 9 Years
          5 years, 9 months ago

          8 PPG is ridiculous. Its 304 points over the season. No way Salah matches it again either, the trend last season was that he scored consistently less points over the season as teams became more aware of his threat. That trend will continue.

          1. Snevitz
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 14 Years
            5 years, 9 months ago

            Can you back this up with data? His highest single gameweek score was towards the end of the season in the gameweek when hardly any teams had a game so I don't think this is correct.

            1. Brosstan
              • 9 Years
              5 years, 9 months ago

              I dont have the first hand data Im basing it on a value assessment article written by FPLConnect (who admittedly came to the conclusion that he was still a good choice and probably good value for money). I think you are highly optimistic to expect 8 ppg this season.

      3. Snevitz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        As Deulofail just said, that's fine if you are genius at predicting the hot patches for strikers - how do you suggest I work out who is about to score back to back hatricks? I'm picking a team that should do well without the inherent riskiness of pooling all my resources in a few players. £11m is a lot of money to gamble on a player who you are not going to captain.

        By the way fantasy football is completely about PPG, you use your budget to select the players who you think will average out scoring as high PPG as possible whilst you own them.

        There are projections which clearly show that you could go all season without a premium striker and still win outright - not that that is what I am suggesting. Any player in the game is only a 4 point hit away from my team.

        1. Deulofail
          • 8 Years
          5 years, 9 months ago

          I completely agree, though at the moment I have Aguero, Firmino, Auba and KDB in my team 😆

          1. Snevitz
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 14 Years
            5 years, 9 months ago

            Nothing wrong with that, the beauty of not picking Salah is that you get some extra cash to spread around.

        2. Klopp For The Kopps 😆
          • 8 Years
          5 years, 9 months ago

          I get where you are coming from
          Going by PPG too, Aguero and Auba close to 7 PPG players
          Matched with the right timing you could get them 10 pts avg for few weeks you have them
          But yeah as you said every player is 2 hits away

    3. Toblerone52 - Zlatan Ibra-H…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Very similar to my team except you've got more 7million price mid/forwards and I've gone premium up top.

      I like a lot of what you are doing but maybe not having at least one slightly pricier striker will make moves for Kane/Auba in the future more difficult?

      1. Snevitz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        I agree it makes it trickier but i'd rather start with the three cheaper options who have good fixtures. After 4 or 5 games I will have a better idea of which of my cheap strikers is rubbish and whether I should be transferring some value around with a few transfers. I don't see Sane as a long term player in my team so there's every chance I'll do something like Sane and Tosun to Auba and whichever cheap midfielder already has 4 goals by week 5. I just can't see the value in the premium forwards early on.

    4. Fantastisk
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Who was the other top three defender? Azpi?

      1. Snevitz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        Yes I was counting Azpi as the 3rd. It's all just predictions based on previous season's data but alonso and Azpi are consistently in the top 5 defenders each season. Jones also has surprisingly high ppg but isn't nailed so I didn't count him (a mistake I also made last season when he went on a great run of cleansheets).

  4. JamTart
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Kane - Is it worth keeping him out the team till GW 6 when they play Brighton? Likely to be rested at first after WC and only the one easy game in GW2 where he could potentially explode. Hopefully the casuals starting with him and selling could lead to a 0.1/0.2 price drop.

    1. OldBenKenobi
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Yeah prob best to observe and use the WC if you need to get World Cup players into your squad

    2. Oven Glover
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      I was also thinking about price drops for popular “casual” picks. Very good FPL prospects picked by the masses that doesn’t start for their respective teams early on because of being in their last 4 of the WC. When people realise that they’ve picked players that are AWOL, they’ll dump them, and we might pick them up a little cheaper which might enable a 4.0 def to become a 4.5 def on an early WC. Looking at most selected %, KDB, Kane, Trippier and Lukaku are players that might suffer price falls early on.

      1. Deulofail
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        I learnt the hard way last year that the quickest drops aren't the most popular failed pick, but the picks that are the most popular among avid fantasy football managers who fail. Iwobi wasn't picked up by casuals last year, and wasn't highely owned, but dropped immediately after GW1 🙁

        1. Oven Glover
          • 8 Years
          5 years, 9 months ago

          You punted on Iwobi? Makes it easy to disregard your passion for Deulofeu this season 😉

          1. Deulofail
            • 8 Years
            5 years, 9 months ago

            I sold him after his drop for Cork to give me 4 x 4.5 mids in my team 😆 Hoping to sell Deulofeu before his GW2 drop.

        2. Brosstan
          • 9 Years
          5 years, 9 months ago

          I also punted on Iwobi at the start of last season. Lesson learned, dont make risky punts based only on pre season form.

      2. JamTart
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        This was my thinking. It will just depend how many jump ship right away and how many stick it out. But if they don't feature for GW1&2 I can see a definite drop.

        With this in mind selecting Mahrez seems a no brainer since he could explode and rise whilst KdB drops. Also gives him and Sane a chance to impress early.

  5. OldBenKenobi
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Strange to think there’s a very good chance that Salah perma-captain could be a viable strategy 😯

    1. Ógie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      It could be a typical mistake that an fpl manager makes trying to play last seasons game in the new one.

      There was certainly no mention of Salah being a permacap in preseason last year and who knows how this one will go.Salah may regress and some other fpl asset might take the league by storm like Salah did.

      1. OldBenKenobi
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        Sure obviously anything can happen this season.
        But it could easily go the casual’s way again this season with Salah(c) every week while “we” all try to be too clever and over think our strategies 😆

    2. Eden Wizard
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Welcome to summer of 2017 😆 We just didn't know it

      1. OldBenKenobi
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        Indeed

    3. Eden Wizard
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      I don't want Salah - I just don't have anyone else i'm comfortable captaining

  6. UshFPL
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Seri->Fulham
    That's an unbelievable signing for them. Not really an FPL option but I'm shocked they've pulled that off

    1. OldBenKenobi
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      As long as he actually wants to be there yeah it is....

    2. Differential C (Mark)
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Thats what i thought about Renato Sanches, hopefully he settles well. A cracking signing for them.

  7. Toblerone52 - Zlatan Ibra-H…
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Latest incarnation, what do you guys think?

    Ederson 4m
    Azpi Robbo Coleman Tomkins Cedric
    Mo Sane Siggy Cairney 4.5
    Aguero Firmino 4.5

    Looking to be alternating between 532 and 442.

    Should I downgrade Firmino to Zaha/Arnie etc and upgrade Cairney to Jota/ mhykitarian?

    1. OldBenKenobi
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      I’d prob downgrade Firmino and improve Cairney yeah

  8. Maddi Son
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    What would your FPL defenders be, if money wasn't an issue? I'm thinking, Robertson, PVA, Coleman, Alonso & Mendy

    1. Speédy
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Robbo,Coleman,Vertonghen,Azpi/Bellerin,Valencia

    2. OldBenKenobi
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      That’s very doable with the right formation and players!
      Why not try it for the first few GWs then use the WC.....
      Be a little different 😀

      1. Maddi Son
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        That is my back 5 dude. Ederson in goal.

        1. Maddi Son
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 9 months ago

          Ederson,
          Robertson, PVA, Coleman, Alonso Mendy
          Siggy, Mane, Sanchez
          Aguero, Zaha

          4.0 Jota, Stephens, 4.5

          1. OldBenKenobi
            • 7 Years
            5 years, 9 months ago

            Fair play!
            Hopefully you stick to your guns when GW1 comes around 😀

    3. Deulofail
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      A few answers here, if playing 5 at the back, with money in mind: https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2018/07/09/how-to-rate-your-fpl-team-using-our-points-projection-tool/?hc_page=2#hc_comment_18345323

      1) Van Dijk, Bailly, Baines, Daniels, Tomkins

      2) Azpi, Robertson, Mendy, Coleman, PVA

      3) Alonso, Coleman, Cedric, Jones, Daniels

    4. the snazzy viking
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Alonso, Walker, Robertson, Valencia + PVA

    5. WE GO FOR IT
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Robertson, Walker, Azpi, Spurs, United

  9. Emiliano Sala
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Lucas torreira is a great player. Something like kante

    1. Differential C (Mark)
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Did you see that video on youtube clattering Ronaldo? Plays with heart, cant wait to see him in PL.

  10. OldBenKenobi
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    I really like the fact that the transfer window closes before the season starts.
    Should have been that way from the beginning imo.

    1. Differential C (Mark)
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Agreed, makes it more fairer, I think. Funny seeing Ox in a Gunners kit, and then a Liverpool kit the next week.

    2. Ógie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      It is a big help to us fpl managers and will surely save us a few headaches in the opening weeks.

      1. HamezMace
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        In non world cup years, yes

    3. Deulofail
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      And I personally think it makes an early WC a less attractive strategy to aim for, despite the WC players returning late. This unless your team genuinely needs it.

      1. OldBenKenobi
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        Yeah I agree with this

  11. Izy7
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Thoughts on Sanchez?

    1. Differential C (Mark)
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Could be on fire, but I dont trust Mourinho.

    2. Gringo Kid
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Reliable defender, solid value

    3. HamezMace
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      He has cool dogs.
      Too expensive for a player in his position in a Mourinho team.

  12. Eden Wizard
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Bench headaches already

  13. Sune
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    McDonalds:

    A) GK fodder, KdB, Lingard
    B) Pickford, Fellaini, Alli
    C) Pickford, Fellaini, Lingard
    D) Pickford, Chadli, Alli

    Courtois other keeper.

    Cheers!

    1. yakirh
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      B

    2. Smudger’s Dirty Dozen
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      b

  14. Value according to position
    Holding Matip
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Further to my comment on "value in defence"
    https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2018/07/09/how-to-rate-your-fpl-team-using-our-points-projection-tool/?hc_page=2#hc_comment_18345127

    I'm back (unfortunately for you lot!)

    This time I'm looking at what is actual value. Most would define that as being points per million. If this is the case, using the same 140 players as previously (played 1900+ mins as a proxy for being nailed), we can see what the points per million is across positions:

    PPM:
    GK - 26.8
    DEF - 19.32
    MID - 17.4
    FWD - 16.6

    if this is the case, the value is at the back of the team.

    However, I also checked the average of points per 90 mins played:

    PP/90:
    GK - 3.82
    DEF - 3.66
    MID - 4.25
    FWD - 5.07

    Though this seems to throw "ppm" out the window, this is points per 90 - attackers are much more likely to be subbed on when a team needs a goal - so "super subs" ruin the accuracy of this. Also, this disregards price completely.

    I therefore also did PP/90/mil

    PP/90/M:
    GK - 0.77
    DEF - 0.70
    MID - 0.63
    FWD - 0.64

    ... and order is restored - value seems to come from the back.

    I found a good way to look at this as follows:
    If you spent your whole budget on one position, (and having bench fodder), they would get you the following points per 90:

    pp/90
    GK - 64.3
    DEF - 58.1
    MID - 52.3
    FWD - 53.0

    1. Eden Wizard
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Nailed it

    2. the snazzy viking
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      a pleasure to read

    3. OldBenKenobi
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Thanks for making me doubt my own plans and strategies!
      I hope your happy with yourself 😛

    4. Limited & Mediocre Mana…
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      We've always known that on average players at the back provide more value though.

    5. RedLightning
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Rather than looking at the average points per million, pp/90 or pp/90/M for the entire 140 players on your list, it would be better to just consider the best ones - one goalkeeper, at most 5 defenders, at most 5 midfielders and at most 3 forwards.

      If the result comes out at more than your budget, then you will need to replace some of them with cheaper options. Or if it comes out at less than your budget then you will need to upgrade some of them to players who have fewer points per million but more total points or higher points per game.

      Also, remember to include at least one captain candidate whose points will be doubled, and a few subs who can fill in when required or be rotated according to fixtures, while giving priority to your first eleven over your bench.

      And when considering which players to upgrade or downgrade, the deltas between the old and new players is more significant than the absolute values of players in different categories. Upgrades or downgrades may sometimes also result in formation changes.

      1. Holding Matip
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        Fair points - this wasn't trying to come up with a best team per se, on my last post people were questioning what actual value is - this is supposed to be a blanket insight into if value is tied to the individual or to a position or to a combination

        I'll give your suggestion a whirl some time tomorrow when I get some time, this was a quick mental check on my last post to make sure I wasn't drawing incorrect conclusions!

        1. Deulofail
          • 8 Years
          5 years, 9 months ago

          As far as I see it, value (Price & points) is tied to the individual. For me, it goes without saying that it is independent of position: The individual scores points; the individual performs the actions which score the points. A 5.5 defender can get 8 PPM or 1 PPM. Any correlations between position and points is a correlation of independant factor A (position) and independant factor B (points). It's not a causal relationship.

          In your reply below, you're still saying things like "where the value is", which I just cannot compute, sorry. Maybe I'm completely off the mark, here. I'm not a statistician. Maybe it just helps me to make decisions to treat them as independent. 😀

          Any dependance between the price and points is a result of intentional FPL pricing. So factor C (last year's points) are embedded in factor A (assigned price) (or vice versa?). For this reason, there is a causal relationship (to some extent) between these two. But factor B (points) are independant of factor C (last year's points). That's just how it is!? 😀

          Any statisticians around here, please tear me down. I'd be happy to learn 🙂

    6. Smudger’s Dirty Dozen
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Need to remember this in two weeks when I do my team...again....for the 23rd time

    7. Deulofail
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Nice post, thanks. I hope my rebuttal to "value in defence" doesn't come across as a rant! 😀

      The problem is that you have 100m to spend. You don't get points returned for the money you saved.

      Buying the most valuable players could leave you with 10m ITB, for example. If you call the "bank" another "position" - i.e. a place you can spend money, you get 0 PPM, 0 PP/M and 0PP/90/M from that position. So "value at the back" is a useless phrase without figuring out how valuable it is in combination with everything else.

      You also have a limit of 15 players. If this were unlimited, then "defence is where the value comes from" makes more sense (and is more useful) because you could win the game by continuing buying defenders until you deplete your 100m. But this is only true if you aren't allowed to choose the individual players - i.e. if the players are selected at random from the pool, so the pool with the highest average would be the best to pick from! It's not as simple as "value in defence", because you need to take into value at each price point, and in combination with other players, and even then, you're still only working with averages instead of individual projections vs price. https://mathematicallysafe.wordpress.com/2017/11/30/fantasy-premier-league-analysis-position-value-and-productivity/

      In reality, we're looking for extremes in each position. Those who do not fit the pattern. In this analysis you are including all the 4.5 defs who pick up 2pts for appearance, which is a massive proportion of their overall scores, who we might never even consider for our teams (but are seemingly good value since they are priced so low). You're also including all the "attacking" players that we would never include in our teams because we already know they are poor value (hello, Kante!).

      This also doesn't take into account form and fixtures. Premium defs are more reliable and more fixture proof in terms of value (as are budget defs due to the "appearance points" point I made above). I love them for this, which is why I started last season with 5 at the back. However, this was to allow me to concentrate my transfers on attacking players who were coming into form.

      Defenders tend to be more nailed, too, which is something we can take into account when selecting players. Because we're not selecting at random from a pool of players, we can choose attackers who will play and score highly for 5 GWs and then sell before they stop playing. (Lots of players are also priced at least 0.5 less than they would be if they were nailed - in some cases, millions less, and particularly for attacking players!)

      Finally, I know you've used this year's prices, but you've used last year's points (the only way to do it without projections, of course). There's no guarantee that the conclusions from these data are generalisable to the new season. For example, if there happen to be 5 x 7.0 forwards who are the highest points scorers this season, then surely the "value is in midfield" if anything? With your analysis of averages, however, you would likely still find that the "value is in defence".

      Loading money into the midfield area is not going to guarantee you points, though, because some players are good picks and some aren't. This is why I despise comments that generalise to positions, like " the value is in defence" and "too much at the back" and "not enough in midfield" etc.

      The point is that we're looking for individuals and, more importantly, combinations of individuals who will best value overall. FPL don't know who will score what this season, so despite any correlation, the prices and positions can't detemine value because they don't determine points: we need this season's points to fill in the equation.

      Your anaysis is useful to me for the reason I gave on the previous post, but it is skewed because the prices are not independent from the points they scored last year (because FPL use last year's output to help them decide on a price), which is the reason they are strongly correlated (compared to less stongly correlated with the new season's data). So if price does not equate to points in the new season (it's more independant than in your analysis), then simply spending more at the back is an unfounded tactic. Again, we have to manulally select the best value options on a case by case basis, and in relation to what else the money can buy in our teams. https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2018/07/09/fpl-midfielders-deployed-in-defence-while-liverpool-score-seven/?hc_page=3#hc_comment_18344506

      It's also skewed by including appearance points in the analysis. If you looked at Value Added per Million (i.e. after appearance points), you might find it skewed away from defenders. https://www.reddit.com/r/FantasyPL/comments/6r60fu/exploring_a_key_metric_value_added_per_1m/ And if you look at it by deduction the baseline cost in that position (e.g. 4.0 for a defender; 4.5 for a mid), then again, defenders would lose out because you're not spending 6.0 on defence vs 6.0 in midfield, but an extra 2M vs an extra 1.5M.

      Anyway, I love to talk about this kind of stuff, and I haven't thought about it much for a while, so I'm glad to have seen your posts. Thanks again for posting, and let me know what you think.

      tl;dr - I think the analysis is skewed in favour of defenders, and the term "value in defense" is either false, hazy, deceptive or just not useful 🙂

      1. Witty Pun: Not good at this…
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        You are too good for us

        1. Deulofail
          • 8 Years
          5 years, 9 months ago

          🙂

      2. Holding Matip
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        No quite the opposite, it made me double check my thinking, hence this post!

        I agree completely, value will always prefer lower cost players and will therefore mean you will have money ITB. It's more the case of, should I play with more defensive players Vs attacking players. Granted this is skewed by the fact you can only have 1 keeper however.

        Your point about individual value is also correct, I was simply trying to find where you would find the best bang for your buck

        Taking your Kante example, he consistently racks up 2 points per game at a price of £5.0. If we were to pick a premium mid say, at a price of £10.0, he would have to produce 4 points a game to be as valuable as Kante - or the equivalent of 25 assists or 12 goals (or a mix of the two). And this is exactly where this type of analysis falls apart. We aren't searching for value, we're searching for points. Sanchez got 152 points at a price of £10.5 whereas Kante got 101 at a price of £5.0. Kante is obviously the better value player, but if we have money ITB, you would be stupid not to buy Sanchez for the extra 50 points!

        I can't use future data as it doesn't exist, hence this is in hindsight and this type of analysis always will be, though I will make the point that generally FPL have very good pricing, in that top players are priced as such. There are times when this is inconsistent e.g. Salah last season, but this is definitely because he was a new player - I'm sure if we look at players who have been in FPL for a couple of seasons, the game will keep their price range within +-£1m or so, they aren't *that* bad at pricing!

        VAPM is an interesting way to look at it, and I will definitely experiment further, however, VAPM for a £4.5m player who plays vs a £4.5m player who doesn't play shows that it isn't as reliable - you could pick a £4.5m mid who never plays, or a £4.5m mid who gets you 2 points - VAPM is infinity in this case, so it's unfair to remove appearance points! Players will be priced at the absolute minimum as FPL and ourselves cannot guarantee they play.

        Great to have discussions on this though, that's exactly what this forum is about!

    8. Chenku╰☆╮
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      All great until gw1 kun kane and auba score big..

      1. Holding Matip
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        I forgot FPL was 1 week long

    9. Ginkapo FPL
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      VORP - Value over replacement player.

      Do the 6.0 defenders outscore the 4.5 alternatives?

    10. phace
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Great post. Thanks for the mindfu...

    11. Hotdogs for Tea
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      But we are all trying to hit the ‘ceiling’ for each position not the ‘average’, and the ceiling is higher for mids and forwards

      1. WesMantooth
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        You can still try to hit the "ceilings" of the offensive players with just 5-6 attacking slots. You only get one ft each week regardless of formation.

    12. A-VB
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      I have always been a firm believer on 'defence is the differential' notion (if there is one such, otherwise I would like you to be credited for it for these wonderful analysis).

      Another key point is, from around the midpoint of the season, most of us resort to a template attack (for whatever the reason be) and that is not always a trash idea either.

      However, our defences often vary quite a lot from manager to manager and those double ups here and there, carefully planned rotations often turn out to be the killer.

  15. Goonermeister
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Is Sane worth the million more than David Silva?

    1. the snazzy viking
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      yes

    2. Cok3y5murf
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Yes

    3. Snevitz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      I'm not convinced. Silva played whenever he was available last season (from what I remember) and he had a higher PPG than Sane.

    4. troncojimenez
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      My question is; is it better to with Sane over Eriksen. Especially in the first few gameweeks.

  16. Ógie
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Any chance Morata could turn his form around for his second season in the PL?

    He could be a right bargain @£9.0 if he does.

    1. HamezMace
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      I hope Giroud nails down the starting place, but either he, or Morata are great value

      1. Ógie
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        Yeah,they are both well priced and if either of them nails down a place in the first team they will be near essential for that money.

        1. HamezMace
          • 9 Years
          5 years, 9 months ago

          Wish Chelsea would sort out the manager situation so I could decide who I want from their team.
          That said Giroud won't start GW1 because of his WC involvement.

          1. Ógie
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 11 Years
            5 years, 9 months ago

            They might keep faith with Conte if they have not given him the chop by now.

  17. TaiwanHC
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Pogba or Hazard? (Local game)

    Already have Lukaku, Griezmann and De Bruyne.

  18. Root
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Foster 4.5

    1. Over Midwicket
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Nailed in my team.

    2. Mysterion
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Foster / Fab template incoming...

  19. EmreCan Hustle
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Noob questions.

    Does the 5 FTs before the finals cover the Third-place play-off players also?

    Do we hold the players that lose in the SFs because of the Third-place play-off match?

    1. HamezMace
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Yes it does.

      We'll get the team news before deadline for the 3rd place game, so hold of on those transfers until this is confirmed.

      1. EmreCan Hustle
        • 11 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        Cheers!

  20. Murder On Zidanesfloor
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Noone talking about Wilshere? 5m and probably in the Lanzini role

    1. Cpt Crunch Scott talent
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Where on earth did you get 5m from

      1. Root
        • 12 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        FPL

    2. Zilla
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Literally just added to the game, maybe that's why?

      1. Cpt Crunch Scott talent
        • 10 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        Aye, had not updated for a few hours

    3. Murder On Zidanesfloor
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Ive got him in For Deulofeu

    4. Ten Season Wonder
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      You seen West Ham's fixtures bro?

      1. HamezMace
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        Isn't Fabianski in your team, with no rotating keeper?

        1. Ten Season Wonder
          • 10 Years
          5 years, 9 months ago

          haha got me there. This is why we make drafts. to help eachother out.

          (I in the meantime will scour the site for a nice 4.5m GK to rotate with Fab)

          1. HamezMace
            • 9 Years
            5 years, 9 months ago

            I know, only joking with you.
            Begovic I think works out okay as a rotating keeper early on.

        2. Ógie
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          5 years, 9 months ago

          Nicely spotted 😆

    5. HamezMace
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Wilshire at 5m seems a great price to be fair.

      1. OldBenKenobi
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        Possible 0.5 too expensive for me 😆

    6. badgerboy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Could be excellent. On the flip side could see him with a chunky ownership and if he doesn't start well turn into a value pit.

    7. Andy_Social
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Hell yeh, straight in! See ya Cairney.

    8. Brosstan
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      I dont think he will be a starter, West Ham are about to get Felipe Anderson in.

  21. Cpt Crunch Scott talent
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 9 months ago

    Hmm Ken Sema 5m also. Watfords new signing from Östersund.
    Very close to getting into Swedens WC squad.

    1. Cpt Crunch Scott talent
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Scored the winner against Arsenal at the Emirates in EL if I remember correctly

    2. MTPockets
        5 years, 9 months ago

        Decent price for a punt, if he starts.

        1. Cpt Crunch Scott talent
          • 10 Years
          5 years, 9 months ago

          That is the problem so much talent in their offensive mids

    3. Chris_H
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Triple City (1 def + 2 att), triple Liv (1 def + 2 att) seem plausible for first few weeks?

      Currently have no-one from Utd, Chelsea or Spurs...

      1. Andy_Social
        • 11 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        Sure, so long as you get the right ones.

    4. Wrong Captain Choice - Ag i…
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      I was just thinking about people's aversion to getting Burnley players on here.
      The argument is the Europa League etc etc.
      But that argument NEVER seems to be apllied to Arsenal and Chelsea.
      People are happily putting in Ramsey/Mkhitaryan/aubamayang alonso/azpilecueta

      Why the bias against Burnley and the Europa league argument?

      1. HamezMace
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        I guess bigger squads, European experience, and not involved in the pre-qualifiers.

        1. Wrong Captain Choice - Ag i…
          • 14 Years
          5 years, 9 months ago

          Fair points but the smaller squad is an advantage less chance of rotation...cohesive unit etc
          Until they get tired by october/november could be advantageous?

          1. badgerboy
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            5 years, 9 months ago

            Agree with these points but it's understandable that folk are wary. We've seen other teams in the same position Burnley in previous seasons and have disappointed.

            1. Wrong Captain Choice - Ag i…
              • 14 Years
              5 years, 9 months ago

              At the moment I am sticking with Chris Wood as my sole Burnley rep.
              Looks very tempting to double up on thier central defence all the same.

          2. HamezMace
            • 9 Years
            5 years, 9 months ago

            Think there is a lot of transfer business still to be done yet. Still four weeks+ until deadline day. I doubt Burnley go into the season with 5 defenders.
            If you're just looking for nailed on defenders, there are plenty of mid-table teams with a pretty guaranteed defence.

            I think Arsenal and Chelsea are more likely to play weaker teams in the group stages of the EL, and take it more seriously once the competition gets the QF stages and opposition gets harder.

      2. BoxingKanga
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        The bigger clubs field nearly two different teams in EPL and CL

    5. Goonermeister
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      A) Sanchez + Laporte (Mandy if I can make 0.5)
      B) Eriksen + Alonso

      ( most likely for first 5 games)

      1. HamezMace
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        B.
        Laporte not nailed, and Sanchez isn't good value given his role at United.

      2. Limited & Mediocre Mana…
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        B

      3. kennethrhcp
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        b

      4. Krafty Werks
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        Have B.

    6. Captain Kakaroto (I blame R…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Score prediction for today?

      1. Krafty Werks
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        2-2....France 3-2 e/t.

        1. dark91
          • 8 Years
          5 years, 9 months ago

          2-1 Belgium (et)

      2. HamezMace
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        France on penalties, after 0-0

        1. Wrong Captain Choice - Ag i…
          • 14 Years
          5 years, 9 months ago

          Brave call I see goals in this France to sneak it 2-1

        2. Captain Kakaroto (I blame R…
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 9 months ago

          Really? so much talent on the pitch and you think it will end without goals? suprising

          1. HamezMace
            • 9 Years
            5 years, 9 months ago

            Only because I have Griezmann and Lukaku in my fantasy team!

            Seriously though, I expect a tight, nervy game, but it's been a very unpredictable world cup so far.

            All the goals coming tomorrow. 4-0 England.

      3. yakirh
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        2-1 France

      4. Limited & Mediocre Mana…
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        2-2 Belgium win on pens.

      5. Mysterion
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        Tranmere 0-4 Liverpool

    7. Goonermeister
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Which GW do you reckon Mendy will make an appearance?

    8. Krafty Werks
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Best captain for today? Thanks.

      A - Mbappe
      B - Hazard

      1. Pilgrim62
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        B imo

    9. Goonermeister
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Valencia or Coleman? (Money not an issue?)

    10. adam28193
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 9 months ago

      Aguero and Sanchez or Sane and Lukaku?

      1. cravencottage
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        5 years, 9 months ago

        Aguero and Sane