Our Gameweek 10 coverage ends with this regular look back at a player, team and discussion point that attracted our interest in the weekend’s matches.
The buzz surrounding Ross Barkley after his 17-point haul against Burnley has led to plenty of column inches focusing on the England international’s Fantasy appeal, but we’re instead concentrating on another Chelsea midfielder ahead of their run of three appealing home fixtures in the next four Gameweeks: Willian.
We cast our eye over Marko Arnautovic’s underlying statistics in last week’s Digest but we turn attention to his defensive team-mates in this week’s analysis, with West Ham United top of our Season Ticker from now until January 2019.
With Bournemouth’s Premier League schedule now – on the surface, at least – taking a turn for the worse, we ponder whether to ditch or keep our Cherries assets in the latest “form versus fixtures” discussion.
The Player – Willian
Over 45% of Fantasy Premier League managers own one or both of Marcos Alonso (£7.0m) and Eden Hazard (£11.3m), the two leading points-scorers in FPL this season.
With Crystal Palace, Everton and Fulham to visit Stamford Bridge in the next four Gameweeks, Alonso and Hazard’s respective ownerships – fitness permitting – would seem set to remain healthy over the coming month and there would seem little sense in ditching either premium pick ahead of this enticing run of matches, even if the knee-jerk brigade are out in force ahead of Gameweek 11 after Hazard’s no-show at Turf Moor on Sunday: the Belgian midfielder is, somewhat bemusingly given Gianfranco Zola’s positive words on Tuesday, currently the most-sold player of this round.
Is there room for a third Chelsea asset in our teams for this run of games then, or cause to overlook Hazard for another Chelsea midfielder for those Fantasy managers who don’t already own the Belgium international?
Ross Barkley (£5.8m) is certainly available at an attractive price and his underlying attacking numbers are reassuringly good for the legions of FPL managers (212,000 at the time of writing) jumping on this latest budget midfielder bandwagon.
Our attention was caught by Willian (£7.4m) in Sunday’s win over Burnley, however.
The Brazilian midfielder certainly passed the eye test and could easily have left Lancashire with a double-digit haul himself, having struck the upright with a curling first-half effort and seen two presentable chances that he created for Alvaro Morata (£8.7m) and Olivier Giroud (£7.8m) spurned by the profligate strike pair.
Willian’s superb 61st-minute goal was due reward for his efforts and he was perhaps the stand-out player on the pitch, giving Matthew Lowton (£4.7m) a nightmare in the right-back position.
No player on show at Turf Moor on Sunday registered more penalty box touches or shots on goal than Willian, who encouragingly had four attempts from inside the Burnley area.
Over the course of the season, it has been Willian’s creativity, rather than his goal threat, that has caught the eye.
Only two FPL midfielders have recorded more key passes than the Brazilian this season, with Willian indeed creating more chances for his team-mates than Hazard despite playing fewer minutes.
Hazard is one of only three midfielders to have provided more big chances than Willian in 2018/19, meanwhile.
Just two players in Willian’s position have delivered more crosses than the Brazil international, who has taken more successful corner-kicks than any FPL asset this campaign.
What sets Hazard apart over Willian, of course, is his goal threat: Hazard’s minutes-per-chance average (24.7) is considerably better than his Brazilian team-mate’s (40.4).
Hazard is, perhaps, the stumbling block to Willian’s appeal as a Fantasy asset.
With the Belgian talisman absent with a back injury on Sunday, Willian predominantly played on the left flank (Hazard’s usual position), routinely cutting inside onto his stronger right foot.
Willian occupying the “inverted winger” role (plus Burnley’s woeful defence, of course) was undoubtedly a key factor in why he racked up so many shots at Turf Moor, averaging a chance every 18 minutes.
In his five starts at right wing this season, Willian averages a shot only once every 41.3 minutes.
With Hazard likely to be back this weekend, Willian would seem set to resume his duties on the right flank to accommodate the Belgian’s return – the statistics suggesting Willian will likely be attempting fewer shots than at Burnley if that happens.
One positive thing to note from his possible redeployment as an orthodox wide-man this Sunday: Willian has supplied a chance only once every 37.8 minutes when starting on the left wing, compared to once every 20.9 minutes when starting on the right.
The threat of rotation with Mateo Kovacic (£5.9m) is what deters many from taking a punt on Barkley and, of course, Willian’s Fantasy owners have their own nemesis in Pedro (£6.4m) when it comes to shared pitch-time.
Willian has, though, started Chelsea’s last five Premier League fixtures, albeit two of which were when the Spanish winger was unavailable through injury.
With James Maddison (£7.0m) and Richarlison (£6.8m) not without their detractors in recent weeks, Willian could be a short-term, mid-priced punt for Chelsea’s next four fixtures, particularly for those FPL managers sitting on a Wildcard for Gameweek 15/16 and able to move him on easily at that point.
At £7.4m, though, the negatives we have outlined above (rotation risk/Hazard’s return) may make even more Fantasy bosses switch their focus to the budget Barkley.
The Team – West Ham United
West Ham came within minutes of registering of what would have been only their second clean sheet of the season at Leicester City on Saturday, the ten-man Hammers being denied three points late on when Wilfred Ndidi‘s (£4.9m) deflected strike salvaged a draw for the Foxes.
Manuel Pellegrini’s side sit top of our Season Ticker for defence for the next 11 Gameweeks and beyond, meeting only Manchester City of the “big six” between now and January 2019, and interest in the Hammers’ defensive assets is understandably increasing in the Fantasy community.
It is difficult to analyse Saturday’s performance against the Foxes from a defensive point of view, given that Pellegrini’s side played over an hour with a man disadvantage after Mark Noble‘s (£4.9m) 37th-minute red card.
On the surface, the statistics don’t make for great reading.
Only three Premier League sides allowed more shots on goal and big chances than the Hammers in Gameweek 10, while just two clubs conceded more attempts from inside their own box and shots on target.
However, all of Leicester’s big chances arrived after Noble’s dismissal, with just one of the Foxes’ 13 shots in the box being recorded before the West Ham captain was sent off.
The Hammers had comfortably dealt with Leicester’s limited goal threat before Noble’s red card forced them into a rearguard effort, giving some optimism regarding their chances of keeping clean sheets going forward.
West Ham had impressed from a defensive perspective in Gameweek 9, too, restricting Spurs to just two shots on target and blocking both of Harry Kane‘s (£12.4m) two attempts on goal.
Brighton and Hove Albion, meanwhile, scored from their only big chance of the game in the 1-0 win over the Hammers in Gameweek 8.
The centre-back pairing of Issa Diop (£4.3m) and Fabian Balbuena (£4.4m) have looked increasingly accomplished in recent weeks, with FPL defender Declan Rice (£4.4m) again starring as the shield in midfield at the King Power Stadium on Saturday.
Pellegrini hailed his side’s backs-to-the-wall display after full-time:
I think we were very unlucky. We defended so well for the whole game but particularly for the 55 minutes with one player less. At times, it was a masterclass in defending from us.
When it was 11 against 11 most of the game was in their half and we dominated. We must continue working and we are unlucky with the goals we are conceding.
Since Diop and Balbuena have established themselves as the first-choice centre-back pairing and the veteran Pablo Zabaleta (£4.3m) has made the right-back spot his own, the Hammers have steadily improved.
From Gameweek 4 onwards, West Ham haven’t conceded more than one goal in a Premier League match – this despite facing Chelsea, Manchester United and Spurs in that spell.
Granted their underlying defensive statistics for 2018/19 don’t make for great reading: just three clubs have conceded more shots on target than the Hammers, who have allowed more big chances than all bar two top-flight sides.
Mitigation has to be given to the calibre of their opposition, however, with the Hammers having played ten of the top 12 teams in the Premier League table, including five of the “big six”.
Fantasy Football Scout users with memberships can see the improvement West Ham have made from Gameweek 4 onwards following their awful August by using the Comparison Tool, which highlights how their rate of big chances, shots on target and shots in the box conceded (plus clearances, blocks and interceptions) have taken a turn for the better.
One area that gives us particular concern, however, is West Ham’s aerial prowess.
The Hammers have conceded more headed attempts than any Premier League club this season and just two sides have allowed more attempts from set plays.
Leicester’s big chances on Saturday were all headers, while Harry Maguire (£5.5m) also struck the woodwork with a headed attempt from a set-piece delivery.
Spurs’ winner in Gameweek 9 was a header, too, while the consolation goals they had conceded in Gameweeks 5 and 7 were either headers or from set-piece situations.
Balbuena is the stand-out candidate in the Hammers’ backline, his goal on Saturday highlighting his attacking potential: in the last four Gameweeks, no FPL defender has registered more shots inside the box, headed goal attempts or big chances.
Only four defenders have registered more baseline bonus points than Balbuena, meanwhile, illustrating how he is likely to add FPL bonus points to his attacking/defensive returns if and when they arrive.
Lukasz Fabianski (£4.5m) remains the most popular route into the West Ham backline and as he proved last season, offers decent value for money in the budget goalkeeper group: only Joe Hart (£4.6m) has made more saves than the former Swansea City custodian this season, while Mathew Ryan (£4.5m) is the only goalkeeper to have accrued more bonus points.
The Discussion Point – Bournemouth: Form versus Fixtures
No club outside of the “big six” has scored more goals, registered more shots in the box or created more big chances than Bournemouth this season, but owners of the Cherries’ more popular Fantasy assets face a dilemma over what to do with their in-form players going forward.
Eddie Howe’s side sit bottom of our Season Ticker for attack over the next ten Gameweeks, with the Cherries facing half a dozen matches against “big six” clubs during this period as well as a trip to Wolverhampton Wanderers.
Ain’t Nobody Like Tom Cairney‘s hot topic on Tuesday asked the question, though, of why anyone would ditch Callum Wilson (£6.6m) with the Bournemouth striker sitting joint-top of the FPL points-scorers’ list among recognised forwards.
The same question could be asked about Ryan Fraser (£6.1m), who is the fourth-highest-scoring midfielder in FPL this season and who offers much better value for money (10.2 FPL points per million spent) than any player in his position.
Bournemouth have scored at least two goals in seven of their ten Premier League matches this season, meanwhile.
Wilson has had more big chances than any FPL player this season, with only Sergio Aguero (£11.3m) registering more shots in the box among FPL forwards.
Fraser has also created more big chances than any Premier League player in 2018/19.
Yes, there are clubs with better fixtures on the horizon, but in the immediate future, those teams have limited Fantasy appeal.
The likes of Huddersfield, Cardiff, Newcastle and Burnley sit near the top of our Season Ticker for the next four Gameweeks, none of whom really offer us viable alternatives to Fraser or Wilson, except for perhaps Josh Murphy (£4.8m) and Johann Berg Gudmundsson (£6.0m) – the latter of whom’s appeal may be affected by the return of Robbie Brady (£5.4m).
With ten league goals between them, Glenn Murray (£6.5m) and Marko Arnautovic (£7.0m) can offer form and fixtures as an alternative to Wilson – but perhaps we can delay any decision on our attacking Bournemouth assets until Gameweek 14.
We say this because of Bournemouth’s next three opponents – Manchester United (h), Newcastle United (a) and Arsenal (h).
Jose Mourinho and Unai Emery’s sides have kept only three clean sheets between them in 20 Premier League matches this season, with only one of those shut-outs coming in an away fixture.
The pair also rank joint-14th and 13th respectively for shots on target conceded in 2018/19 and both clubs have conceded at least 20 big chances this season (Manchester City, by way of comparison, have only allowed five).
Newcastle, meanwhile, have allowed more attempts on goal and shots in the box than all bar three Premier League sides this season and have yet to record a clean sheet at St. James’ Park.
Speaking as someone who owns a Bournemouth attacking asset in the form of Fraser, this author will be keeping hold of the pint-sized Scottish midfielder (fitness and selection permitting) until the trip to the Etihad in December at the earliest.
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