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Being on time to the points party can save your FPL season

Ever feel like you’ve arrived late to the points party?

Not fashionably late – when the dance floor’s in full swing and you’re soon knocking down a delicious cocktail of goals, assists, clean sheets, and bonus points – but really late, when the host has turned down the music, the guests have started leaving, and you’re left wondering what happened to all those fantasy points you were promised. Points your rivals were gulping on. Now you’re sipping a bitter cocktail of shaken confidence with a nip of frustration. If only you’d been on time.

In hindsight there were warning signs. That player had always proved an inconsistent, unreliable source of points with a penchant for all-too-brief hot streaks. His underlying stats were modest at best. Yet his name had popped up in the template and you wanted a piece of the action. Now, having completely missed those precious points, you find yourself needing to regroup. To make matters worse, the player has already cost you 0.1m from the annual party budget. It’s a disaster of third season Mourinho sized proportions.

If this is a familiar story in your FPL season, it might be time to mix up your game plan. We all try to focus on points, of course, but sometimes we get side-tracked. We chase previous results. We worry about value. But there is another way. It’s possible to pour out those bottled-up frustrations and find fresh solutions. To make superior short-term decisions. To set the ever-changing template, not regret your tardiness.

As you may have guessed, I strongly endorse a proactive style of fantasy team management. I believe that thinking outside the proverbial penalty box and staying ahead of that mysterious curve can be the keys to a successful season. Or an even more successful season. Success, of course, is a relative concept. It could be defined as a top 10,000 finish, top 1000 finish, or higher. It could simply be winning your mini-leagues or beating your best friend. Whatever your goals, in a game played by millions of people, with hundreds of points on offer over 38 glorious gameweeks, there is always scope for improvement.

With that in mind, I invite you to consider alternative approaches to that tried, tested, yet perhaps ultimately suboptimal transfer policy. Ready to get as radical as a Paul Pogba hairstyle?

FORGING THE ‘TEMPLATE’

Somehow almost every active team appears to look at least a little bit ‘template’, right? So how are some teams so far ahead of others in overall rank? For starters, there is no actual template. Never has been, never will be. The ideal squad with the highest point-scoring potential changes all the time.

Your objective should therefore be to remain a few steps ahead of what others perceive to be the template. If you think a particular player is set to explode, buy that player now. Don’t wait for the purple patch to begin then feel red-faced when it does. Back your judgment. Take a hit if you need to. If you’re right, other managers will soon be following suit; following the fluid template you helped to forge – but by the time they catch up, you will be moving on to the next big thing.

In recent times you could have moved early for the likes of Heung-Min Son, Lucas Digne, Paul Pogba and more. The signs and/or stats were there to see. Did you launch in with gusto or hold back with trepidation?

As it turns out, patience is not always a virtue.

The better managers react faster to looming trends. They grab the points on offer while others wait to be sure. There’s nothing wrong with a bandwagon, as long as it’s you behind the wheel, fully prepared to jump off the ride before the inevitable crash. Points earning, not points chasing.

PREMIUM HOKEY-COKEY

While it sounds like a lot of fun, ‘hokey-cokey’ is sometimes seen as a dirty term. Pick your premium assets and stay loyal, they say. But why? What if you could have the top one or two captaincy options in your team every single gameweek? It’s not as far-fetched as it sounds.

By paying close attention to upcoming fixtures, locking in a ‘set and forget’ defence and being prepared to take occasional hits, you can rotate your heavy hitters as often as you like. There is simply no need to carry an expensive asset through a tricky run of fixtures. Play around with your budget, shuffle the deck, use mini-wildcards, try to find multi-transfer moves that could have explosive results. It’s not a question of Eden Hazard or Raheem Sterling; it’s a question of when to have one, when to have the other, and when to have both. In other words, play the form and fixtures hard. Extremely hard.

ONE HIT WONDERS

What’s the difference between a great gameweek and a bad gameweek? With the right captain and a few strong differentials, you can easily beat your rival by 20-40 points. You’ve seen it happen. For some reason, though, many of us are reluctant to pay 4 points for a clearly superior team and/or captain in any given gameweek.

Points hits are not the enemy; poor decisions are the enemy.

Rather than fearing the loss of 4 points, perhaps calculate the enormous potential of a hit that works the way you expect it to. A big haul minus 4 beats no big haul at all. Even better if it’s a player you want to keep for the medium term.

If you can change your mindset, you can open up exciting transfer possibilities that your rivals won’t even consider. An injured Benjamin Mendy to a low-ceiling Aymeric Laporte? No thanks. Surely those funds could have been spent on a more attacking set of transfers. Transfers that set your team apart from the pack.

Remember, the most important gameweek is always the next one.

Don’t miss another points party!

41 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Now I'm Panicking
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Nicely written - cheers 🙂

  2. Geoff
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Thanks for this!

    Fun read, and good advice 🙂

    1. g40steve
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      This is so true;

      Remember, the most important gameweek is always the next one

      Don't chase last weeks points 🙂

    2. MINUS FOUR
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Thanks Geoff, appreciate it. Note there's a typo in the headline - should be "party" not "part". Hope everyone enjoyed the read. I've actually submitted a new article that goes into a bit more depth about some of these ideas. Watch this space (maybe) ...

      1. Geoff
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 11 Years
        5 years, 3 months ago

        First rule of editing, my bad.. titles are always overlooked. Apologies!

        1. MINUS FOUR
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 3 months ago

          No apology necessary! Thanks for fixing.

  3. g40steve
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Guys, is my defence too POOR?

    Son > Sane, Alli, Erikson
    TAA > Bednarek

    Fabs
    Digne, Doherty , Pereira
    Salah, Hazard, Son#, Pogba, Anderson,
    Auba, Rashford,

    Button, AWB, TAA# , Kamara

    .4

  4. OPTA FPL
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Son just got an assist already!

    1. badgerboy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Serving the drinks on the flight back to Seoul? Top lad.

  5. benched captain
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Awesome read and well-written, I agree with you. I'm bringing in Nasri and Alli this week for these reasons.

    1. MINUS FOUR
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Cheers. Really strong moves. I'm trying to find a way to get Alli in this GW, I really think he might do the business, but it will require some unnecessary surgery as my team is already looking good with no Kane or TAA issues to deal with. And I've already got Alonso on Deulofeu on the bench.

  6. JJO
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    So Arnautovic to Spurs just a speculation or more then that?

  7. the Penman
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    *party 😉

    1. MINUS FOUR
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Indeed

      1. the Penman
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        5 years, 3 months ago

        Nice article - it does bring up lots of the considerations I have. When is a high score a one off and when is it the first clue of an impending streak?! Good stuff.

    2. Geoff
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Not his fault, that's my bad!

  8. Pep Pig
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Nice read mate and agree. Fortune favours the brave.... sometimes 😉

    1. MINUS FOUR
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Thank you mate. Of course, you will never get it right all the time. Nor do you actually need to. I think a lot of managers get put off quickly by a few failed transfers where they could have done nothing. But a move that doesn't pay off doesn't make an aggressive strategy wrong. It's all about whether you are right more often than you are wrong over the course of a season. And I would back most experienced managers to achieve that if they tried.

      1. Pep Pig
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 3 months ago

        I assume the most successful managers find an "in-between", knowing when to be aggressive and when to show patience. I've never really been one to switch from premium to premium but if good timing and luck kick in then obviously that could pay huge. You've made some great moves this season and your rank.... wow. Keep up the great work mate and I will follow you wishing you luck

        1. MINUS FOUR
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 3 months ago

          That's true, balance is important for sure. I certainly don't suggest hits galore is the only way to go. I'm not even that maverick (I don't think), I'm just willing to take hits when I think it's the right move at the time. Having done the -8 in GW22, I'm probably holding a FT in GW23 and preparing for a mini wildcard in GW24. Every GW is different.

      2. Blame It On Rio-ddermorten
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 3 months ago

        Nice post. A few seasons back I did an experiment that really highlights the point of hits not being bad:

        If you had a way of knowing what team would be the dream team (the highest 11 scorers) every gameweek, and you did the necessary transfers to get them in, you would on average take ~10 hits (40 points) every gameweek. With an optimized bench, this could possibly be reduced to ~9. Even with -40 every single gameweek, you would outscore the overall FPL winner!

        This is, of course, impossible. But it is an experiment that, at least for me, serves as a reminder that "good hits" are worth it.

        1. MINUS FOUR
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 3 months ago

          That is such an interesting experiment, and it really hits at the heart of what I've been thinking. We get so caught up in a -4 or a -8, but the 'optimal' (highest scoring) teams each gameweek are SO far ahead of our average scores. My approach is to look at each gameweek and think about what team I would want if I was on wildcard, then I work out if it's possible to get quite close to that starting XI in a couple of transfers. If I can, I go for it, regardless of a hit or what it means long term (basically ignoring fixtures into the future and only worrying about immediate ones).

          I'm pleasantly surprised to hear about those results of your experiment. It certainly reinforces some of these theories.

          1. Blame It On Rio-ddermorten
            • 9 Years
            5 years, 3 months ago

            Cheers. Another fun aspect of this experiment is that the top scoring XI would in general be higly affordable, since the "heavy hitters" rarely haul in the same gameweeks.

            1. MINUS FOUR
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 6 Years
              5 years, 3 months ago

              Just goes to show the game offers so many opportunities for improvement.

          2. Pep Pig
            • 7 Years
            5 years, 3 months ago

            I love this thinking. I need your email address ha 😀

            1. MINUS FOUR
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 6 Years
              5 years, 3 months ago

              I would be happy to give it to you. Hmmm, FFS needs a private message function.

              1. Pep Pig
                • 7 Years
                5 years, 3 months ago

                I know mate that would be great. Feel free to email me
                mallon1981@gmail.com

  9. P.Aimar
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Fair point. Fair point. Though the "one hit & premium hotkey cokey" paragraphs seem overly idealistic.

    How often it happens when you transfer out the player and bring in your desired player, only for the former to explode. This game is all about the probability. For example, Alonso has hit the post thrice already. Seriously disheartening for most(but lucky I don't own him LOL) Meanwhile, Salah has delivered multiple double digits, which I feel is somewhat fortunate. Those penalties would have taken by Milner if he was playing. (though he will get those assist points but no bonus for sure) Or did you see when deulofeu hit the post against crystal palace and off the rebound, Pereyra hit the same post? LOL. That would have been either a goal or assist for some ffs readers here.

    All about the probability. While the elites like Kenneth Tang has figured it out, mere folks like some of us...though we do struggle for the glory, prestige and especially bragging rights among our friends. It's all fun.

    1. MINUS FOUR
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Absolutely, it does happen. But we tend to remember these disasters more readily than we remember all the success stories. You're just trying to get more than 50% of your big moves right, and if you're playing the form and fixtures that should be possible.

      Also, the potential upside of a move that works out can be really, really big. Probably bigger than the downside of not backing your judgment. I've had a few GWs this season where I've taken a hit and ended up 20 or 30+ points better off almost immediately. Have I got the odd one wrong? Of course. It's not a safe and steady way to play the game, but safe and steady doesn't actually mean you will do well.

    2. MINUS FOUR
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Oh and I was and am a Deulofeu owner. Absolutely gutted. I think those little moments hurt more when it's a real differential player in your team too. Of course points are points, but it's more devastating when a player like that hits the post and it would have really been a defining moment in your Gameweek.

      1. P.Aimar
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 3 months ago

        Yes yes. You're absolutely right actually. Anyway great read bro!

  10. Greyhead
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Great read. Nice article!

    1. MINUS FOUR
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Cheers mate. Happy to contribute finally. Got another article in the pipeline too - I simply couldn't help myself from responding to the Scoutcast team calling me an FPL James Bond!

  11. trower
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Nice article, I like the thought provoking 'philosophical' style. Just like the real game it's the 'what ifs' that compel us to play.

    1. MINUS FOUR
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Couldn't agree more! This is an area I'm really passionate about, so it's nice to put some words down on the page. I think many of us could benefit from loosening the shackles of our playing style somewhat.

  12. Gnu
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Nice write up, fun to read as well.
    Cheers.

    1. MINUS FOUR
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Cheers GNU.

  13. Patch
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Nice to get some perspective...I have been portecting my OR since GW3...wouldnt mind having the odd fling every so often, but do feel quite shackle-wedged (if this word even exists) in the top 10k and not willing to lose ground and accepting minimal rise in rank!

    1. MINUS FOUR
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 3 months ago

      Firstly, shackle-wedged, love it! Can't wait to say it on the golf course today, I'm sure there will be an opportune moment.

      I suppose it comes down to your goals. From my OR of 35 it would be pretty easy to just sit back and play as template as possible to protect rank and ensure a high finish. But that's dull, and I'd rather take my one and only ever chance at winning FPL! Sure, it's not going to happen, but I would rather try and fail finish in the top 10k by avoiding any big moves.

      Also I think when your rank is high it can be the best time to play offensively. You're doing it from a position of strength and there is no desperation in your transfers, just well considered moves. Live a little! Or not haha.

  14. Samurai Blue
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Great article. Well done.

  15. ImGoonerWin
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 3 months ago

    Who is Tot going to put up top? Time to get Llorrent?